For years I would write up season previews where I would almost automatically pick the team for 4th place. I didn’t know if they were a legitimate 4th place team, but I’d inject a little homerism to avoid last place. And then 2006 happened. The team was good. Real good. Picking them first or second in the division didn’t seem homer-ish, it seemed prudent after their World Series run. And an 88 win finish in 2007 and a blockbuster trade in the subsequent offseason further solidified those predictions. Then 2008 happened. I’m not ready to go back to picking the team in the bottom half even though that is the prevailing wisdom. I have them at 84 wins and a second place finish this year. And here’s why.

Back in January I took a look at the Tigers hitters and pitchers through the eyes of win values. It was an exercise in forecasting the Tigers season as objectively as possible. I used other people’s projections (mostly found at Fangraphs) to see how the Tigers would perform. At the time I concluded that the Tigers were an 84 win team. Of course, some things have changed since then:

• Gary Sheffield was released
• Rick Porcello made the rotation
• Zach Miner won the a spot over Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis
• The Tigers added Brandon Lyon
• Jeff Larish made the team and Ryan Raburn didn’t
• Josh Anderson was added to the mix

In the process the Tigers got a lot younger. The Tigers boasted 3 of the oldest players in the league in the form of Todd Jones/Kenny Rogers/Gary Sheffield. Now the offense is a mix of veterans and emerging stars and the rotation are veritable babies. The oldest pitcher in the season opening rotation is Armando Galarraga at the ripe old age of 27.

With the above mentioned roster changes in mind I updated the projections. The hitters are first, and then the pitchers:

2009 WAR Projections - hitters

2009 Pitchers WAR Projections

I tried to stay objectives with the new roster additions, but admittedly there is limited data to work with. Anderson and Larish don’t have a ton of history to project offense, let alone defense. Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry only have PECOTA projections which have them posting ERAs north of 6.50. I took some liberties in these cases. Porcello I have as a below average starter throwing 160 innings (the limit laid out by Dombrowski). If he is as bad as PECOTA projects he won’t throw that many innings and I figured they would be filled by someone of about that quality. With Perry I pegged him as a replacement level reliever, following similar logic to Porcello. I actually think both will perform better than that, but I wanted to stay conservative.

In the end I have the team 41 wins above replacement and a replacement AL team would win about 43 games. So voila, 84 wins. (for more on the methodology check the links from the earlier articles)

As for second place? The Tigers are commonly cited for having many question marks, but look around the division. The Royals have an offensive black hole playing first base and an experiment at second base. The White Sox offense beyond Carlos Quentin and Alexi Ramirez is reliant on aging players like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, and AJ Pierzynski. The Twins offense capitalized with RISP last season at a rate that is largely unattainable and Joe Mauer’s health is a concern. And the Indians have a Cy Young winner at the top of the rotation, but look at the rest of it.

My projected order of finish for the division is:

1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Kansas City
5. Chicago

I also see this division probably separated by no more than 12 to 14 games meaning that nearly everyone is in contention, and likely could be throughout the season. This could make things exciting when it comes to battling for a division crown. It could also make things dicey as sub .500 teams don’t view themselves as sellers at the trade deadline.

Other thoughts of a predictive nature

• The team does well enough that Jim Leyland does not get fired during the season
• Justin Verlander bounces back and leads the staff
• I will eat my words denouncing the Edwin Jackson/Matt Joyce trade and be thankful that he’s on the team
• Armando Galarraga will regress, but not as much as conventional wisdom would indicate. Instead I think he’ll improve his peripherals
• Nate Robertson will assume primary whipping boy duty
• Bobby Jenks doesn’t finish the season as the White Sox closer
• I’ll curse Joe Crede more than once
• Mark Derosa will be a stud for the Indians
• Marcus Thames will simultaneously receive too much and too little playing time in the eyes of fans
• Brandon Inge will be simultaneously undervalued and overvalued by fans and the two sides will accuse each other of being Inge-apologists and Inge-haters
• Placido Polanco puts together a solid season and makes it very tough on the Tigers to decide on resigning him

I think everyone remembers last year when the Tigers were pretty much a lock for the playoffs in the minds of many prognosticators. Sure, it was up for debate whether they’d win the American League or the World Series, but they were post season bound. Not so much this year. A number of sites and outlets and experts are doing some predicting and, well it ain’t so pretty.

Ken Rosenthal puts the Tigers in last place in the Central. But he acknowledges that anyone in the Central could win it.

Sports Illustrated picked the Tigers to finish 4th with 77 wins, 8 games back of the Twins who they think take the divison with 85 wins.

ESPN the Magazine picks the Tigers…5th in the AL Central because the rotation is questionable.

David Pinto at Baseball Musings picks the Tigers to also finish last, but he gives them a 17% chance of winning the division which is only slightly less that random!

The folks at Baseball Prospectus give us a number of projections and predictions. Joe Sheehan ranks them as the 23rd worst team in baseball, but that is still better than the White Sox and Royals. Chris Kahrl cites PECOTA and has them winning only 80 games, but that is good enough for 2nd in the Central.

Seamheads.com takes the Tigers 2nd with 84 wins, 2 games off the league pace.

Baseball Digest Daily’s panel of writers peg Detroit as the 3rd best team in the division.

And the geeks (I use that term affectionately) at Beyond the Box Score pick the Tigers anywhere from 2nd to last.

If you read through all the links though there is a pretty consistent theme. The Tigers aren’t that good, but they might not have to be to stay in the mix. As for my predictions, those are coming soon.

After re-reading my 2007 season preview, I had to admit I was a little leery of doing another one this year. It’s all just such a crap shoot. And even after digesting the most dynamic offseason in franchise history and tracking the team’s progress over six weeks of spring training, I’m still not clear on the fortunes of this team. But without further preamble and sentences started with conjunctions – The DTW Preview.

Offense

It’s pretty clear the Tigers are poised to have an exciting offense. With everybody healthy this will be the best lineup in baseball. And the batting order is solid enough that it could even sustain a major injury and still be better than most of the competition. The 1000 run threshold has been widely discussed, but that has to be viewed as a best case scenario. I actually expect the total to be in the 925-950 range.

Last year the Tigers scored 887 runs and they did it with the help of some career years that can’t be expected to be repeated. We’ve heard about how much less productive Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and Placido Polanco are going to be. But the Tigers also suffered from some pretty terrible production in left field, third base, and first base. Each of those areas have been addressed and improved substantially.

• Catcher: 2007 – 278/299/410 The sub 300 OBP was certainly a disappointment, but we all know that Pudge Rodriguez and taking walks are like oil and water. As his batting average waned, the OBP went right with it. However there is good news for 2008. I think Pudge Rodriguez bucks the aging trend for this season. He’s had a tremendous spring hitting .429 with 6 homers. Spring stats don’t mean a whole lot – except when there is a big uptick in slugging percentage. Pudge’s spring certainly puts him in that group of players. About 3 out of every 4 players in that group go on to exceed their career averages.

  As for the backups, it will be Brandon Inge and perhaps Vance Wilson later. They should be adequate – at least relative to backup catcher production.

  Position trend: UP

• First base: 2007 – 295/350/414 Sean Casey received the bulk of the at-bats and he managed a decent on base percentage, but was devoid of power. He didn’t get his first homer until interleague play in June. Carlos Guillen is a safe bet to at least match the batting average and OBP while substantially increasing the slugging percentage. Marcus Thames is really the only other bet to play at first, and he’ll hit for a lower average but with big power.

  Position trend: UP

• Second Base: 2007 – 328/369/448 Placido Polanco had a great year last year hitting .341 which also lifted his other numbers. He was a wizard with the bat, rarely striking out and putting the ball in play with remarkable consistency. Some regression in his numbers is expected here, but I still expect solid production. Polanco’s 2007 was a near carbon copy of his 2005 so it can’t be deemed a fluke.

  Ryan Raburn will be the primary back-up and should be solid in the role.

  Positional Trend – Slight down

• Shortstop: 2007 – 280/340/462 I was actually a little surprised to see the numbers this low for the position. It turns out Guillen was more powerful and productive when manning first base than at short. This isn’t going to influence my opinion of Guillen’s upcoming season with the position switch, but it does make the gap in shortstop production going forward smaller.

  Edgar Renteria had a phenomenal year in 2007 hitting 332/390/470. I don’t expect anything close to those numbers, but he is still a career 291/349/407 hitter and he’s posted an OBP north of 361 in 4 of the last 6 seasons. I expect something in between his career and 2007 numbers.

  Positional Trend – Slight Down

• Third Base 2007 – 236/307/381 I’m several hundred words in and it’s the first mention of Brandon Inge. Inge was really bad last year. The Tigers replaced him with one of the elite hitters in the game in Miguel Cabrera.

  Positional Trend – Big freakin’ UP

• Left Field 2007 – 240/279/384 The now departed Craig Monroe deserves most of the blame for these sorry numbers, but he wasn’t alone. Marcus Thames only hit .234/274/465 while manning left field. Ryan Raburn and Cameron Maybin struggled out there as well.

  This year this bloggers hope is for a strict platoon of Marcus Thames and the newly acquired Jacque Jones. Even if neither player is particularly productive, things are bound to be better out there.

  Positional Trend – UP

• Center Field: 2007 – 294/357/537 Curtis Granderson was a stud last year. He is a very diligent worker who throughout his career has been able to systematically improve on the weakest aspects of his game. That glaring weakness right now is his struggles against left handers. Complicating this is the broken bone in his hand. A speedy and full recovery is expected, but not assured. If it takes him time to gain the strength back in his hand it could mean more at-bats for back-ups Brandon Inge and Clete Thomas, or a number of at-bats at less than full strength. Either would be a detriment. Plus, it’s tough to improve on a season like he had in 2007.

  Positional Trend – DOWN

• Right Field: 2007 – 363/434/615 MVP caliber seasons are hard to come by. Expecting the same production isn’t realistic for fair to Magglio Ordonez. He should still be good, but the position will most likely be less productive.
  
  Positional Trend – DOWN
• Designated Hitter: 2007 – 259/364/458 Gary Sheffield was very productive when healthy. I expect him to be very productive when healthy once again in 2008. However, like in 2007 I don’t expect him to remain healthy. He’s several years removed from his last full season, and expecting increased health at his age is counterintuitive to say the least.

  Positional Trend – FLAT

Run Prevention

Remember in the spring of 2007 when people were raving about the Tigers pitchers? They had a great rotation, a solid bullpen, and they were backed with strong defense. One year later everyone is worried.

• Starting Rotation: Four-fifths of the starting rotation that was so good in 2006 is intact, and yet it is now full of question marks. I think the concerns are overblown. I have no worries about Justin Verlander being good to great again in 2008. I of course have concerns about his health, but I’m just paranoid like that. Nate Robertson has proven to be a remarkably consistent pitcher with steady strikeout, walk, and homer rates over the last 3 years while pitching at least 177 innings.

  Where the question marks come into play are Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers. Rogers is rightly a concern due to his age and it is a real concern if he can make it through a full season. Jeremy Bonderman is less of a concern to me. When he’s healthy he does pitch like an ace. I’m not worried about the first inning problems. I don’t think he’s mentally weak or more susceptible to the big inning. I’m not even worried about his 3rd pitch. Locate the fastball, which he can do when his elbow isn’t barking, and everything is fine. I fully admit to having a blind spot with Bonderman, but I think he’ll be fine.

  And then there is Dontrelle Willis. His numbers were bad last year, but the Tigers scouts indicated he had found his groove at the end of the year. I felt better about the deal when the Tigers thought enough of the scouts reports to give him a long term deal. In Dave I trust. But his control problems this spring are troubling to say the least. He can’t get the ball over the plate, and when he does it’s up and getting hammered.

  What makes this more of an issue is the Tigers are thin if they need a sixth starter. Yorman Bazardo and Virgil Vasquez would figure to be the guys to most likely fill that role.

• Bullpen: Bullpens are historically hard to predict. That becomes even more difficult when there are limited track records to draw from. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, the linchpins of the pen, shouldn’t even be counted on for this year. Rodney is having a hard time staying healthy, and I imagine that even when he does come back it will be a matter of weeks until he is back on the DL. With Joel Zumaya there’s no way to know what will happen.

  Todd Jones had arm strength issues early in the spring, and I find this to be a huge concern. Jones isn’t as bad as many make him out to be, but if the arm is dead, the arm is dead.

  Denny Bautista may be that special find that the pen needs. He won favor with Leyland and that should garner him quite a few chances. If he can throw strikes, his stuff is good enough that he could be dominant.

  After that it’s a matter of quantity. Bobby Seay is looking like the second coming of Jamie Walker, which isn’t a bad thing at all. Zach Miner has a great sinker, but he needs to keep the ball down for it to be effective. Jason Grilli enters the season as the whipping boy, based largely on his struggles in April and May of last year. Plus, when he blows up he really blows up.

  The Tigers have to hope that Francisco Cruceta can get in country and that Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez can be good enough.

• Defense: The Tigers look to help out their pitchers with a pretty strong defense. Jacque Jones is an upgrade in left field from a range perspective. Edgar Renteria – while no longer a plus defensive player – is an upgrade over Carlos Guillen. And Guillen should have significantly more range than Sean Casey did at first base. Of course there was one big downgrade and that was with Miguel Cabrera taking Brandon Inge’s spot at third. Third base defense does figure to be a weakness, and one that is magnified with 3 left handed pitchers.

Bottom Line

Where I look like a fool and put it all together. I see this team winning about 92 wins. Whether or not that is good enough to take the division, I’m not sure. I have a hard enough time predicting my teams performance, let alone every other team. It should have them right in the mix with Cleveland. I also think it should be enough to get them in the playoffs. After that who knows what happens in a short series.

I was asked to participate in a round table discussion at Baseball Digest Daily looking at the Detroit Tigers. The group also included Ian from Bless You Boys and Peter Robbins Brown from Bugs and Cranks.

Baseball America published their MLB previews and predictions today. Unfortunately most of it is premium content. But I will let you know that they have Detroit winning it all, Miguel Cabrera taking home MVP honors, and Justin Verlander finishing as Cy Young runner up.

In other preview news, the Baseball Crank is running his Established Win Shares series again this year and started with the AL Central. The system likes the Tigers to take the division over the Indians. The first line of his analysis very succinctly sums up the Tigers outlook this year:

The Tigers are loaded with prime and veteran talent, but also have more question marks than the Riddler.

For a stat heavy guy, here is a decidely stat-less look at the season ahead…

The Outlook

I can’t count how many times I’ve read that the Tigers were the beneficiaries of career years that can’t possibly be repeated. While there could be a case made for this on the pitching side (Nate Robertson, possibly Kenny Rogers, and the 5th starter pool) I don’t know exactly who they would be talking about on the offensive side. In fact, I see more room for improvement than decline.

Placido Polanco had a very down year in terms of total production. He still had a decent batting average, but didn’t walk at all and didn’t hit for any power. I expect him to improve. Curtis Granderson is a young player approaching his peak who was productive last year, but I expect him to add more power and a higher batting average as he puts more balls in play. Sean Casey was awful in Detroit last year, and while I don’t expect big production I do expect him to be substantially better than last year.

I expect Craig Monroe, Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez, and Ivan Rodriguez to produce similar numbers as last year, so while not improvement I don’t for see a significant drop off either.

The real question is Carlos Guillen. He had an MVP caliber season last year, and has improved his batting average in each of the last 7 seasons. Whether or not he can continue to provide that sort of offense is mostly tied to his injury prone ways. He and Pudge Rodriguez are the linchpins for the team in that they provide considerable value at tough to fill positions. Also, the drop-off from starter to reserve is more pronounced for those 2 than any place else on the team.

And of course the big addition is Gary Sheffield who is fabulous hitter and adds pop to a lineup that doesn’t have too many weak spots.

Now what got the Tigers to the World Series last year was run prevention. The Tigers pitchers and their defense allowed the fewest runs in baseball last year. Their defense alignment remains intact from the beginning of last year, with the exception that Sean Casey will be manning first base instead of Chris Shelton. Don’t underestimate the impact this might have, especially for the right handed starting pitchers.

They were also hoping to return the same rotation, at least until Kenny Rogers went on the disabled list yesterday. This is where the drop-off is likely to occur. Justin Verlander said he isn’t ready yet, and there will be concerns all season about his workload from last year. Nate Robertson was one of the luckier pitchers in baseball last year (in terms of runs allowed, not in terms of wins). It is conceivable that both pitchers could have better walk, strikeout, and homer numbers than last year and still allow more runs. I’m not projecting bad season for them, but I’d say it is more likely that their ERAs are in the low 4’s than the high 3’s.

The Tigers got considerable production from the #5 rotation spot filled by Mike Maroth, Zach Miner, and Wil Ledezma. Replicating that will be tough, although a healthy Mike Maroth is a good bet to contribute 200 innings of league average pitching. Of course in a scenario where Kenny Rogers is on the shelf for an extended period of time, Maroth is no longer the 5th guy. So Rogers absence will have a cascade effect if it is prolonged. Wil Ledezma is the pitcher I’d most like to see step into that role, but that results in a gaping left handed hole in the bullpen.

The one pitcher that I expect to improve will be Jeremy Bonderman. If you look at the peripherals (strike outs/walks/home runs) he was the Tigers best pitcher last year. He once again is trying to refine a change-up that will get him over the hump on those days his fastball and/or slider aren’t working for him.

As for the bullpen, Jamie Walker is the only departure. I’d love to still have him, but Joel Zumaya’s and Fernando Rodney’s success against lefties made it easier to let him go. There is already clamoring for Todd Jones to step out as closer and use one of the set-up men. As a Tigers fan, you should hope that Jones is still closing at the end of the season. If he isn’t that means he’s either been injured or entirely ineffective. I’m not debating who is the better pitcher, just that Jones ability to close out games in the 9th with no one on and no one out frees up Zumaya and Rodney to come into higher pressure situations when a strikeout is required.

As with many teams, the Tigers fortunes will be tied to their ability to stay healthy. The talent is there on both offense and defense to keep the team competitive. But simultaneous injuries to multiple starters, or Guillen, or Rodriguez, or Granderson will probably be too much for the team to overcome.

The Competition

The AL Central is being heavily touted as the toughest division in baseball. I’m not sure if that’s the case, but it probably is the most competitive. I’m not big on writing about other teams, because I just don’t follow them as closely as the Tigers. The result is that when I read other bloggers comment on my team, they come off really uninformed. To try and avoid having the same thing happen, I’m going to keep these pretty short.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are a big part of the reason that the White Sox, Twins, and Tigers all finished with 90 wins. The Royals were awful last year, but years of suckitude will start to pay off this year with Alex Gordon as the non-Japanese favorite to win the Rookie of the Year. They also look to have a full season of their ace Zach Grienke. Mark Teahen and David DeJesus return as well.

They added Gil Meche in one of the most laughed at contracts of the off season, but he shut down the Tigers last year and has a 3.96 ERA in 63 2/3 career innings against the Tigers.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox came off their World Series victory, added a big bat to the middle of the lineup (Jim Thome), and hoped to ride their pitching to another post season birth. They got what they wanted from the big bat, plus a career year from Jermaine Dye, but the pitching didn’t do it’s part. Mark Buerhle was poor, Jon Garland got off to a rough start, and Freddy Garcia struggled. That said, they still won 90 games.

They return all their offense plus they’ve added Darrin Erstad to man centerfield instead of Brian Anderson. But the rotation has been retooled. Gone are Freddy Garcia and projected starter Brandon McCarthy. In are youngsters John Danks and Gavin Floyd.

How the new pitchers perform in homer-ville, and whether or not Joe Crede (shudder) and Jermaine Dye can repeat their year will determine how far the White Sox go.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins, the team that everyone writes off each year, and yet they are always in the mix. This year the case for the Twins expected downturn are the absences of Brad Radke and Francisco Liriano. Keep in mind that Radke only threw 162 league average innings last year, which isn’t bad but isn’t great either. And Liriano only was a starter for half a season. The lack of those 2 won’t spell doom for the Twins, but it could be enough to slip them behind a couple othere teams in the division. Especially considering that the replacements are Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. The Twins fate may be tied to the performance of those 2, and how quickly Matt Garza is inserted should they struggle.

Still, the team does boast the best pitcher in baseball and the most valuable player in the division (Joe Mauer, not Justin Morneau) and little Nick Punto will continue to be a pest. Plus, Rondell White won’t be nearly as awful next year.

Cleveland Indians

If the Royals were a big part of the reason there were 3 90 win teams last year, the Indians did their part as well. A popular pick to win the division last year, a bad bullpen and bad luck kept the Indians at 78 wins. While not as dramatic as the Royals, a team that was 2nd in runs scored and 7th in runs allowed should probably have finished above .500.

They have solid starting pitching, and they return a very potent lineup. Defense and the bullpen would be the only things that could hold the Indians back in 2007.

The Bottom Line

Here’s the part of the preview where I throw out a number for the Tigers wins. Many of the computers and experts peg the Tigers for somewhere between 85 and 90 wins. That’s about the range that I’m working and will go with 89 wins. That should be good enough for first or second place in a division that will beat each other up, and not be able to feast quite as mightily on the Royals and National League Central to pad their win totals.

A couple weeks ago I had broken the AL Central into a couple tiers in an effort to seperate them. I had the Indians and Tigers as the top 2 teams, and the Twins and White Sox as the next 2 teams. It maybe all the computer projections influencing me, but I see the White Sox migrating towards 4th place, and the Twins settling into 3rd. I still don’t see a lot of seperation and expect 4 teams to finish between 80 to 90 wins. Given that, don’t get to worked up about this homer-centric order of finish:
1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. Twins
4. White Sox
5. Royals

The Performances and Accoloades

Some guesses on who will do what…

Team Leaders

Home Runs – Gary Sheffield
RBI – Carlos Guillen
Stolen Bases – Curtis Granderson
Batting Average – Placido Polanco
On base percentage – Gary Sheffield
Slugging Percentage – Marcus Thames

ERA – Jeremy Bonderman
Wins – Nate Robertson
Strike outs – Jeremy Bonderman
Saves – Todd Jones

Who will surprise

Pudge Rodriguez will do surprisingly well in the leadoff role. He’s essentially in a contract year, and I think the chance at leading off will keep him happy.

Who will disappoint

Not sure. Maybe I should have just deleted this heading. I don’t have high expectations for Casey, so I don’t know that he’d disappoint me.

First trip to the DL

Kenny Rogers. Nailed it! But beyond that I’m going to go with Sean Casey or Craig Monroe. Casey because he’s an injury risk, and Monroe because I think that knee problem could require some rest at some point.

First demotion

Bobby Seay. I’m not saying he won’t do okay, just that he was the last one in, and it seems like he could be the first one out.

Major League Debuts

Ryan Raburn (he made his debut in 2004, thanks Jerry), Virgil Vasquez, Kyle Sleeth, and Cameron Maybin. Raburn hit very well this spring and Leyland seemed to like him. He’s not on the 40 man roster so it would require some manipulation to get him there. As for the other 3 I expect that they are brought up in September.

The All Stars

Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, and Ivan Rodriguez. None will be elected by the fans as Joe Mauer will get the catcher’s spot. But with Leyland managing he’ll make sure to get his own guys in.

The Award Winners

Brandon Inge cuts down his errors to under 20 and wins a Gold Glove. Pudge picks up another one as well. Jerermy Bonderman finishes in the top 5 in AL Cy Young race with 3 of the top 5 coming from the AL Central.

Another link round-up while I watch Lost and work on my Tiger preview…

Ticket snafu

Things are kinda hectic for the Tigers ticket department about now. A problem with the printer has season ticket shipments coming at the last minute. Tickets are just starting to arrive today, but the club expects everybody to have their tickets by Friday. Extended box office hours have been created to help with any problems that crop up.

Now if you’re not a season ticket holder, you probably had to get your opening day tickets from a broker. It could be tricky to get those tickets in time for Monday.

Injuries

Indians starter CC Sabathia took a line drive off his forearm today. X-rays came back negative so if he misses time it probably won’t be for very long. But in what looks to be a tight AL Central, all absences of frontline players could be significant.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are dealing with an injury of their own. Vance Wilson had an MRI on his elbow.

Other links

• Jason Beck notes that Jim Leyland takes the blame for the division slipping away last year.
• Mickey Tettleton Memorial Overpass posts his Tiger preview.
• FSN will broadcast 60 games in HD this year.

I’ll be a day late on announcing the DVD Giveaway winners. I promise it will be announced tomorrow night. In the meantime, some stuff worth reading:

PECOTA and the Central

The straight run of Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections for the AL Central put the Tigers in 3rd place with 85 wins. Nate Silver makes some tweaks and post-adjustment he’s looking at the Tigers winning 88 games. With his other adjustments that puts them in a tie for 2nd place, one game out. So essentially it’s a 3 team toss-up in Silver’s eyes. Kind of hard to argue with that, unless you’re a White Sox fan who doesn’t like the 77 win projection.

Power ranking season

Fox Sports latest power rankings place the Tigers 6th, down two spots from last week. Meanwhile the Twins surged up 3 spots. Not sure why. But half of the top 6 teams are from the AL Central.

ESPN the Magazine picks Tigers

I don’t think it’s on newstands yet, and you need to be an Insider I think to flip through, but they’re picking the Tigers to win the AL Central.

New displays coming to Comerica Park

You know those fancy, colorful, shiny displays that you see on the facing of the upper bowl of many newer arenas? Comerica Park is getting those. They are also replacing the out of town scoreboard in right-center with an LED display. Similar ones I’ve seen in Pittsburgh and Cleveland seem to display a ton of information, so I think it could be a good thing. It will also make for dynamic ad space so hopefully it will be additional revenue for the club to sink into a Carlos Guillen extension.

I’m not sure I’ll like the strip on the upper bowl though. I’m trying to visualize it, and I think it might take a little away from the retro look of the park.

The Freep also had a story and video looking at stadium preparation for the Opener.

Four Tops get anthem duty

The Four Tops have been tapped to sing the National Anthem for the Opener. No announcement yet on first pitch, but I’d imagine it will be Kwame and Granholm. Gates will open at 10:30am with a ceremony (not the ring ceremony which is on April 4th). Me, I’m hoping for a fly-over.

Things are looking good weather-wise calling for 54 and sunny.

Now if only those tickets would arrive.

Other stuff

• D-Town baseball examines how the rotation will match-up over the first month.
• The Wayne Fontes Experience is rolling out his preview.

A little bit of this and a little bit of that:

More Curtis

Curtis Granderson opened up his mailbag again. This time he talks about the high socks (love the high socks), his at-bat music, and bubble gum. Hard hitting stuff? Not at all. Interesting? I think so.

I always liked how the Negro League players looked wearing their high socks, and I wanted mine to look like theirs. The only problem is that I couldn’t get socks high enough when I was younger. Now that I’m in the Major Leagues, I can get them as long as I want, and I don’t plan on bringing them down anytime soon.

Ducksnorts

Cyberfriend Geoff Young, proprietor of Ducksnorts a blog about the Padres, recently wrote a book which is now available. The Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual is of course for Padres fans, but I still found it interesting as a Tiger fan. First, Geoff has a great writing style and is great at mixing stats and stories. Second, Randy Smith’s name came up quite a bit, and in a favorable light no less. I didn’t know that it was Smith who traded Sheffield for Hoffman, and picked up several other key members of San Diego’s 1998 team. I also didn’t know that Smith ever got the better end of the repeated deals he made with Kevin Towers.

If you’re interested, the book is available either electronically or in paperback.

Cobb on strategy

Hat tip to The Book Blog for pointing me to this article about Ty Cobb and his daring ways on the basepaths. Cobb talks about taking the extra base and how he worked out a lot of plays ahead of time, trying to calculate the odds of success. Neat stuff.

Other stuff

• John Heyman names his all under-appreciated team and Carlos Guillen is the infielder.
• The Dugout notes that Curtis Granderson has just about as many friends on MySpace as presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Dennis Kucinich, and Joe Biden.
• In need of masses: Tom Tango is compiling a community forecast for player performance. If you’re got some serious opinions on how the Tigers (or other teams) players will fare this year, submit you best guesstimates here.

As we’re entering the final stretch of spring training, the 2007 predictions are starting to come with increasing regularity. Here’s what today revealed.

Simulatin’

The Replacement Level Yankee Weblog ran a series of Diamond Mind Simulations. He ran 1000 seasons using each of PECOTA, Marcel, Chone, Diamond Mind and ZiPS. I summarized how the tigers fared below:

I think it is safe to say that the ZiPS projections look to be the most realistic – kidding of course. The truth of the matter is, and I’ve been thinking this as I read all sorts of projections, all teams in the Central not from Kansas City have a legitimate shot at taking the division.

The composite of all 4 simulations have the Tigers 3rd in the division with 87.4 wins behind Cleveland with 88.3 and Minnesota 89.2. The sims weren’t quite as favorable to the White Sox with a projected 75.9 wins.

Sports Illustrated

A less stat/computer/geeky preview from the folks at SI have the Tigers coming in 2nd in the Central and ranked as the 5th best team in the American League. The scouting report is pretty standard citing the Tigers balance as a strength, and injury & last year’s pitcher workload as concerns.

Cranking Win Shares

While not a prediction system per se, the Baseball Crank takes a look at Established Win Share Levels for the AL Central. EWSL attempts to quantify the talent level on a team by looking at past performance and adjusting for age. The Tigers rank favorably because they are pretty solid top to bottom. The downside is that because of the age of the key players, the age adjustments are most unfavorable.

credit Roger DeWitt

Miller Time

John Sickels has another prospect smackdown, this time it is Andrew Miller vs. Adam Miller. Sickels gives a very slight edge to Adam Miller.

Maybe a SLIGHT edge on intangibles for Adam Miller, Andrew gets a slight edge on tools, Adam gets a slight edge on current polish and performance, even on projection. I rated Adam at Number Six on my pitching prospect list, and Andrew at Number Seven. It’s really, really close but overall I think Adam is just a HAIR better.

What’s up with Leyland?

Apparently Jim Leyland doesn’t want to talk about Mike Maroth not being on the playoff roster. I can’t blame him because that was a long time ago. But it appears to be a sore subject and I’m not sure why.

“That’s kind of a sore subject with me,” a testy Leyland said when asked if the Maroth issue had been resolved this spring. “I don’t think that in my opinion, he was playoff-pitching fit. I guess that’s the best way to say it. I don’t want to get into it, but I’ve read some comments, I know it was disappointing and everything for him, but, particularly with his situation, he really wasn’t a relief pitcher.”

I don’t remember Mike Maroth ever making any comments in the press that criticized or slighted Leyland at all, so I’m really not sure where this is coming from. Maroth has always struck me as a team player, but anyone in that situation would be disappointed. Heck, while I didn’t think he should have been on the roster, I was disappointed for him.

Bad Trades

Joe Posanski writes in his blog about his 10 favorite bad trades. There isn’t a Tiger trade on the list, but the trade that topped his list was a 3 way deal in which the Royals essentially traded Jermaine Dye for current Tiger fan-least-favorite Neifi Perez.

Tiger Stadium proposal

Crains Detroit features what the Old Tiger Stadium Conservancy plans for Tiger Stadium. If includes keeping most of the field intact, relocating the Michigan Sports Hall of Fame, and commercial and residential developments. It sounds great if it all comes to fruition.

Miscellaney

• Thankfully Tigers won’t be Lakeland adieu in near future
• I pitched for the Tigers
• Deadspin’s Tiger Preview
• Illitch talks and Leyland invites Kaline to All Star Game

The Tigers are better than the Cardinals. I don’t think this even requires that much debate. The Tigers won 12 more games than the Cardinals. That in itself is impressive, but they did it in a division with 2 other 90 game winners while the Cardinals 83 was enough to lead the NL Central.

In addition, the won-loss records weren’t flukes. Detroit outscored their opponents by 147 runs while the Cards margin was only +19.

It’s understandable that the Tigers are overwhelming favorites in this series. They have the talent advantage. They are rested. The Cardinals have one day off and are somewhat forced into a particular rotation. The Tigers have an additional week of data and scouting reports to work with.

Normally this is the point where I caution people on getting too over-confident by pointing to the example of the New York Yankees. Remember the Yankees, the consensus favorite for whom the Tigers would merely be something to shoo away enroute to bigger things? The Tigers handled the Yankees in 4 with ease. The difference in this series is that the gap between the Tigers and Yankees wasn’t as great as the gap betwen the Cardinals and Tigers.

Now the Tigers should win, but will they? I think they get it done on the field as well as on paper and I’ll take the Tigers in 6.

The round up

Tiger Bloggers

• Detroit Tiger Tales has a comprehensive write-up. Lee takes Tigers in 6.
• Brian is worried about people handing this series to the Tigers before they even play, but takes the Tigers in 6.
• Mack Avenue Tigers breaks it down by component and likes the Tigers in 5.
• Greg Eno goes position by position and finds the Tigers should win in 5.

Cardinals blogs

I was hoping to list a handful of Cards blogs predictions, but so far they aren’t up yet – except for Deadspin who took the Cardinals in 7 (and they have links to a bunch of national predictions).

But for the Cards fan perspective, check out Cardnilly, Viva el Birdos, Gas House Gang, Cardinals Diaspora, and Get Up Baby.

Mainstream Media Folk

• Baseball Prospectus likes the Tigers in 6 in what is the most comprhensive preview I’ve seen so far.
• The ESPN crew has the Tigers as the consensus, typically in 5 or 6 games.
• John Donovan from CNNSI says Tigers in 6.
• Ken Rosenthal says Cardinals in 7.

A look back at what went down when these teams met up for a 3 game set in Comerica Park this season…

Game Log

Game 1: Tigers 10, Cardinals 6

The Tigers jumped out to an early lead on homers by Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge before the Cardinals tied the game in the 5th inning. Detroit responded with a 4 run rally to knock out Chris Carpenter and put the game out of reach.

Justin Verlander made it through 6 innings on 108 pitches before giving way to Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones who each allowed a run.

Game 2: Tigers 7, Cardinals 6 (10 innings)

Kenny Rogers wasn’t especially sharp in this one. He couldn’t hit the strikes on the corners, and if he’s not hitting the corners he’s getting hit. Rogers left in the 6th inning and the Tigers bullpen of Roman Colon, Jamie Walker, Jason Grilli, and Joel Zumaya held the Cards scoreless the rest of the way.

Meanwhile the Tigers chipped away at the lead and Marcus Thames tied it up with a 2 run homer off of Jason Isringhausen in the 9th. They had a chance to put it away after a double by Magglio Ordonez, an intentional walk to Carlos Guillen, and a lineout by Alexis Gomez put runners on 2nd and 3rd. Craig Monroe ended the inning with a strikeout.

The extended inning in the 9th brought Granderson to the plate with 2 outs in the 10th inning. He drew a walk and Placido Polanco had the game winning double to the gap in right-center.

Game 3: Tigers 4, Cardinals 1

Sidney Ponson and Jeremy Bonderman hooked up in a pitcher’s duel that saw the game tied 1-1 in the 8th inning. Curtis Granderson, who was part of the scoring in both the 9th and 10th innings the night before, knocked in the go ahead run as part of a 3 run rally in the 8th.

The Stats

Powered by the Baseball Musings Day by Day Database:

Tiger Pitchers Versus Cardinal Hitters

Tiger starters logged 18 1/3 of the 28 innings pitched against the Cardinals. The most impressive of the group was Jeremy Bonderman who allowed a single run over 7 innings while fanning 8. Kenny Rogers had a shaky start on a night when the umpire wasn’t giving either pitcher the corners. Justin Verlander fell somewhere in between.

The bullpen was pretty solid allowing only 2 runs, one of which was a meaningless Albert Pujols homer off of Todd Jones.

Cardinal Pitchers Versus Tiger Hitters

In the season series the pitcher with the most success against the Tigers was Sidney Ponson who is no longer with the team. Chris Carpenter was battered for 7 runs over 7 innings despite 9 K’s. Jeff Suppan had the same issues with a small strike zone that Kenny Rogers did, but with a little more success.

Each of the Card’s bullpen arms who saw action in the series allowed a run (or more) including Adam Wainwright.

While Ponson is out, Jeff Weaver is in. Weaver shutdown the Tigers earlier this year while he was with the Angels.

Tiger hitters versus Cardinal pitchers

Most of the Tigers hitters had a good series against the Cardinals. Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez both hit over .500 with a couple walks each. Craig Monroe was the only Tiger to post sub-standard numbers with a double in 8 at-bats.

Cardinal hitters versus Tiger pitchers

Albert Pujols was just coming back from injury, but you wouldn’t know it as he hit .500. Yadier Molina, the current hero, was 4 for 9. Scott Rolen, who’s currently hurting went 5 for 11.

Scott Spezio managed only 2 hits while fanning 5 times in 13 at-bats.

In my mind I kind of laid out a long preview of the upcoming series. Fortunately for me, some other bloggers already beat me to it. As it is, it will be a much shorter preview while I lean on their work.

The Teams

In Lee’s preview, he notes that the Yankees and Tigers are mirrors of each other in a way. The Tigers are first in run prevention and 5th in run production, while the Yankees are 1st in run production and 5th in run prevention.

The Yankees outscored their opponents by 163 runs while the Tigers had a positive margin of 144 runs.

The Yankees sport a lineup of All Stars and future Hall of Famers. Their double play combination finished 2nd and 3rd in batting average, besting the effort of Whitaker and Trammell in 1983 when they finished 3rd and 4th. Position by position the Tigers don’t have a player on the field in which they have an advantage over the Yankees.

The Tigers offense is adequate though given the level at which their pitching has performed. However, as Kurt notes those pitchers haven’t been particularly effective this year against the Yankees with the exception of Wil Ledezma who won’t be in the rotation.

The Tigers rotation will be Nate Robertson, Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman. Unlike many I don’t feel that the order of the rotation will be that significant. All 4 pitchers are above average, and all 4 have question marks. Kenny Rogers has pitched in 6 post seasons with an ERA at 8.85. Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson are all in unchartered territory in terms of experience and workload.

The Yankees will start with Chien Ming Wang followed by Mike Mussina. Both have had outings where they completely shut down the Tigers. After that though things could get a little easier, especially if Randy Johnson isn’t able to pitch. The Yankees will then be turning to Jaret Wright and Cory Lidle.

The Season Series

The Yankees lead the season series 5-2 over Detroit. Those games include taking 3 of 4 in Comerica and 2 of 3 in the Bronx Tiger fans can probably take solace in the fact that 5 of the 7 games were decided by 2 runs or less, or went to extra innings. They should probably be concerned in that their only 2 wins were late inning comebacks against non Mariano Rivera pitchers.

Over the 7 games the Tigers were outscored 38-23.

Game 1: May 29th – Yankees 4, Tigers 0

This was a matinee match-up of Jeremy Bonderman and Randy Johnson. Both pitchers were very good, but Randy Johnson was very better. The only offense the Tigers could muster was a Carlos Guillen double and Ivan Rodriguez single.

Game 2: May 30th – Yankees 11, Tigers 6

Roman Colon was making his first start in place of Mike Maroth. It didn’t go so well as he was lifted in the 3rd inning after giving up 5 runs. The Tigers chipped away at the lead, and in the process “Gum Time” was born. The Tigers tied the score in the 8th off of Kyle Farnsworth. Mariano Rivera pitched 3 scoreless innings and in the meantime things fell apart in Todd Jones second inning to the tune of 5 runs. The thing is, the Tigers had a chance to win it in the 8th with Craig Monroe on 3rd with 1 out. Strike outs by Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco ended the rally. By the same token, the Yankees nearly pushed across a run in the 9th when Robinson Cano tried to score on a wild pitch but was tagged out by Rodney.

Game 3: May 31st – Yankees 6, Tigers 1

This game was delayed an hour due to rain. I remember because I was there. Mike Mussina was an Alex Rodriguez throwing error away from a shut out in this one. The Tigers managed only 7 baserunners yet hit into 3 double plays. Nate Robertson was nearly up to the task before allowing 2 runs in both the 8th and 9th innings and falling 1 out short of a complete game.

Game 4: June 1st – Tigers 7, Yankees 6

Once again the Tigers spotted the Yankees 5 runs. This time it was Justin Verlander and a bleeding cut on his hand. Verlander made it through 5 innings though as his teammates chipped away at the lead. The Tigers scored 2 runs in the 9th when a Marcus Thames walk was followed by 3 singles by Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen. The damage came off of Kyle Farnsworth because Mariano Rivera wasn’t available after hurting his back when he went to tie his shoes.

Game 5: August 30th – Yankees 2, Tigers 0

It was a typical Nate Robertson start where he allows some baserunners, but only a couple actually score. Meanwhile, Chien Ming Wang pitched 7 2/3 innings on only 3 hits and 2 walks. Scott Proctor and Mariano Rivera cleaned up the last inning and a third. The Yankees easily took the front end of the doubleheader.

Game 6: August 30th – Tigers 5, Yankees 3

The Tigers actually took a lead in this game with a run in the 2nd and a run in the 4th. Things were looking great for Wil Ledezma until a Sal Fasano HBP and a Melky Cabrera double put runners on 2nd and 3rd. Fernando Rodney relieved and allowed a double to Derek Jeter who would later come around to score. The Tigers were stymied on scoring chances in the 7th and 8th innings. With Rivera unavailable after pitching in the first game of the double header, Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson drew walks to set-up a 3 run homer by Monroe in the 9th inning.

Game 7: August 31st – Yankees 6, Tigers 4

It was Jeremy Bonderman against Randy Johnson and once again Johnson out pitched Bonderman. Jeremy was knocked around by Alex Rodriguez while Randy Johnson carved up the Tigers and allowed only 4 hits. Marcus Thames 2nd homer with a man on in the 9th made things more interesting. But after Ordonez greeted Mariano Rivera with a double, the Tigers were retired in order.

What The Experts Are Saying

It’s pretty much unanimous that the Yankees are going to win, it’s just a matter of how quickly. Deadspin has the round-up with the consensus being a 4 game series.

Baseball Prospectus has a very well researched preview in which they take the Yankees in 4, but acknowledge that the Tigers really do have a chance.

What do I think

As I compiled this I have a hard time picking the Tigers in this series. They are out manned in the starting lineup. Their rock solid rotation seems to be crumbling. Their bench is contructed of a back-up catcher and 4 pinch-runner/defensive replacements. They are relying on many players who are inexperienced in this sort of thing against a storied franchise. And then there was that pesky 5 game losing streak at the end of the season. (Fortunately, that last one has been shown to not have a significant impact on postseason success)

At the same time, the mere fact that the Tigers are still playing means they have a shot. If the Tigers can find a way to take one of the first 2 games I actually believe the Tigers will win this series. This is fully a homer pick and not based on anything resembling solid logic. I’m confident that Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman can pick up wins against the Yankees 3rd and 4th options. Of course I was confident that the Tigers could beat the Royals and that didn’t mean a whole lot, but right now I’m looking for reasonable doubt.

This Tiger team has defied expectations all season. First of all they weren’t supposed to be good in the first place. They were supposed to fold in June after that tough stretch. They were supposed to maintain a 10 game year. They were supposed to beat the Royals. Whatever they are supposed to do, they seem to do the opposite. Right now the consensus is they should go quietly to the Yankees, let’s hope they can prove everyone wrong again.

For More Information

There are a cadre of excellent Yankees blogs out there. My favorites are Bronx Banter, Was Watching, and Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Stop by and see what they’re saying about us.

Well I guess it’s finally time that I give up my prediction for the Tigers season. If you’ve been reading the last couple years, you may remember that I did extensive analysis, player-by-player to predict runs scored and runs allowed to arrive at a final win prediction. That was a lot of work so this year I’m winging it.

I expect the Tigers to be better this year. Curtis Granderson receiving at-bats that Nook Logan had last year will improve the offense. A full season of Placido Polanco, even if he regresses, will be a significant upgrade over what Infante was producing at second base. Chris Shelton occupying the at-bats where Carlos Pena was struggling to find .200 will add runs to the offense. Pudge Rodriguez posting an on base percentage North of .300 will improve the offense. There are lots of opportunities for the offense to be better.

On the other side of the slate, I don’t expect significant drop-off in offensive production from anyone. The most significant loss will be probably be Rondell White’s bat. I don’t think that Craig Monroe can produce at White’s level. I think that Magglio Ordonez can at least produce at the level he did last year. I also think that Carlos Guillen can minimally replicate last year. Even accounting for those guys being injured – as they were last year – the offense should be better.

On the pitching side, I expect small improvements. I expect further growth from Jeremy Bonderman. Kenny Rogers should be able to at least reproduce Jason Johnson numbers. With Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson you know what you get. The wildcard is Justin Verlander. He will have his struggles, but at the end of the year will the Tigers get significantly more production out of the 5th starter spot than Wil Ledezma and Sean Douglass gave them last year?

The bullpen is still a question mark, but I’m actually not worried unless Todd Jones injury lingers. I think the bullpen can be adequate and I expect Fernando Rodney to have a big season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him supplant Jones as the closer. He now has a full season under his belt since his Tommy John surgery, and from what I’ve heard he will be using his slider this year (which he didn’t last year).

It can be argued that the Tigers were actually a 75 to 79 win team last year. For the sake of argument I’m going to start with the Tigers as a 77 win team last year. I’m going to add 3 to 4 wins for the offensive upgrades provided by Granderson, Shelton, and Polanco. I’m also going to add 2 wins that will come from the pitching staff, namely the improvement in the 5th starter spot.

My final Tiger prediction…83-79. I think that will still keep them in 4th place in the AL Central. However, I also don’t see a team in the Central winning more than 90 games. That puts 4 teams within 7 games of each other, so really anything can happen.

What are your predictions for this season? Give me record, where they finish in the division, and a player you expect to breakout or royally collapse.