Category Archives: Players

Pitching, Players, Research, Uncategorized

Do Bonderman’s pitches fool umpires?

4 Comments

An article at the Wall Street Journal delved into Jeremy Bonderman’s first inning struggles. Former pitching coach Bob Cluck wondered whether or not Bonderman’s struggles are attributable to umpires needing an inning to adjust to the movement on Bonderman’s pitches.

The stats seem to support this theory. The last seven times Mr. Bonderman faced an ump for a second or third time in a season, he allowed first-inning runs only once. On opening day last season — when the first three batters he faced all scored — the umpire behind the plate was Rick Reed, who hadn’t seen him in nearly a year.

Looking on a results basis probably isn’t the best way to determine this. But being able to check Bonderman’s called strike/ball rates in the first inning versus other innings, as well as factoring the first time an umpire sees him versus the second time, may be worth some effort. And then even expanding it beyond Bonderman to look for other pitchers who have similar movement on their pitches and if they have similar issues. The latter could be done with pitch f/x data and the former with retrosheet data. I’ll focus on the retrosheet piece for now.

Big View

The first thing I did was to look at Bonderman’s first inning ball and called strike rates compared to all other innings. I looked at all Bonderman data going back to 2003.
bondo1.JPG
The differences are pretty minimal, especially the ratio of balls to called strikes. In fact the ratio indicates that Bonderman gets more calls earlier in the game – if at all.

First Timers

Next, I took at all the times that an umpire was behind the plate for the first time against Bonderman. If the theory holds true, there should be a bigger disparity.

bondo2.jpg
We can see that a higher percentage of balls are called. We also see fewer called strikes in relation to the number of balls.

Return visits

Finally, a look at those who have called Bonderman games before.
bondo3.JPG
A somewhat interesting dynamic with this group. The ratio is more favorable in the first inning, but a higher a percentage of balls are called as well.

On another note, Brian Gorman is the umpire who has called the most of Bonderman’s starts with six. Larry Vanover has done 5 Bonderman games.

Taking familiarity one step further, I also pulled out the times when an umpire was seeing Bonderman multiple times in the same season. This isn’t a common phenomenon with it only happening 23 times in Bonderman’s 5 seasons. So it’s a situation that will present itself a handful of times a year.

bondo4.JPG
Things are certainly more favorable in the first inning for this situation. But that only seems to help in the first innings.

Conclusions

So is there anything to take from this data, does the specualtion hold up? I’d say that it is possible there is an effect for umpires seeing Bonderman for the first time ever. The rate of called balls, and overall rate of calling balls is highest for first timers in the first inning against Bonderman. The fact that the numbers in subsequent innings of that first start are in line with overall numbers does seem to indicate that the umpires do make an adjustment.

But otherwise the numbers are largely inconclusive. Given the in game variation for those seeing Bonderman repeatedly in a season seems to indicate that Bonderman has much more influence over these numbers than the umpires do – which really isn’t a shocker at all.

With pitch f/x data one could look for the frequency that pitches are called correctly by inning. But with only a partial season of data there isn’t enough to work with for the time being.

2008 Season, Players, Spring Training

Can you teach an old catcher new tricks?

10 Comments

Pudge Rodriguez’s power surge has been a pleasant surprise this spring. With two more homers today, he now has a MLB leading six for the spring. But as Jason Beck notes, Pudge is focusing less on the homers, and more on being patient. This is a guy after all, that is one of only 4 players since 2003 to have more than 500 plate appearances in a season and fewer than 15 walks. And he did it twice!

Still, Pudge sez:

“No, I don’t think I’ve had a Spring Training like that as far as home runs. But I don’t look for that. It’s good, yes. I have six home runs in Spring Training. The main thing about it is I’m just doing what I want to do and just be more selective at the plate, try to hit some strikes and take the balls. I’m just trying to see 4-5 pitches per at-bat. That’s what I’m trying to do. And so far, that’s what I’m doing. I’m feeling pretty good about that.”

Keep in mind here that Pudge’s pitch selection in 2007 wasn’t just poor, it was horrendous. Using pitch f/x data from last year we saw that a typical big leaguer would offer at 29% of pitchers out of the strike zone. Rodriguez was around 50%.

As for the 4-5 pitches per PA, that would be quite a jump. Beck noted that Rodriguez ranked near the bottom in terms of pitchers per PA last year when he averaged 3.51. But that was actually the most pitches he’s seen since becoming a Tigers with rates of 3.44, 3.33, and 3.39. In fact the 3.51 was the 2nd highest mark of his career.

Rodriguez’s ability to carry this over into the regular season would seem to be far fetched. Still, this is a contract year which may provide some extra motivation to be a more complete hitter. Secondly, he’s had some early success this spring which should provide some positive reinforcement that the approach is working. Third, he’ll be in a great lineup. Okay, that last one doesn’t make a lot of sense but it is a popular refrain for why players will do really well for the Tigers this year.

Players

Remember when Inge wasn’t talking?

39 Comments

Brandon Inge, who keeps saying he just wants to play everyday, gets a chance to play and complains about it.

“Catching right there absolutely reinforces that third-base is my all-time love,” Inge said. “It’s not even a question. If it came down to it, where I was just catching, I’d have to find a way to separate it. I don’t know if I can, because I take too much pride in the catching aspect.”

and

“I’m a much better hitter this year than I have been in a long time,” he said. “That feeling that I got today was much more of a downer feeling. Don’t get me wrong: The actual catching part of the game [was] fun. It was awesome. But what fires me up is the offensive part. It’s very frustrating to me.

“It’s a fine line. I’m not saying that I’m frustrated about them making me catch. It’s frustrating because the way I feel offensively, and then how I feel catching offensively. It’s two completely different things. My mind’s not in it. Mentally, if you’re not into hitting, you’re not going to hit. Especially with the game plan I have now offensively, it’s tough.”

I had no problem when Inge didn’t speak to the media in the aftermath of the trade. He didn’t demand a trade, but in a conversation with Dombrowski he stated his preferences. I had no problems with those preferences. I’m sympathetic to the fact that he didn’t want to become a role player at this point in his career. I appreciate the fact that he wants to play everyday and would be disappointed if he was “ok” with a bench spot. He, like the majority of athletes, has a tremendous amount of confidence in his abilities. Again, no problem there.

I don’t begrudge him his contract and I’m not going to tell him that “he should feel fortunate” because who am I to say how someone should feel? He was lucky to be in the situation he was, playing for a really bad team that really didn’t have other catching options. Most would have been relegated to AAAA status.

I railed against those that said he got the contract based on one good year because he actually strung together 1800 at bats where he was an adequate hitter (774 OPS).

But these quotes were enough to put me over the edge. Stop talking Brandon and play.
Continue reading Remember when Inge wasn’t talking? →

Links, Players, Spring Training

The pre report date link round up

8 Comments
Robertson, Bonderman, Verlander, and Rogers work out
Photo Credit Roger DeWitt
  • This picture has nothing to do with the links in the post. I just really liked it. Notice the high socks on Jeremy Bonderman. That has to bode well for the upcoming season. You can see more pictures from Lakeland at both Roger DeWitt’s Flickr page and the new Lakeland Flying Tigers blog. Expect many links to these sites over the next six weeks as they present first hand information from Tiger Town.
  • For all the talk of the Tigers being old, they do have some young talent. Including 3 of the top 10 25 year olds in the game.
  • Bless You Boys notes the passing of Roy Scheider. After he went fishing for a shark and before he captained Seaquest DSV, Scheider played the role of Tigers right fielder Billy Young in TigerTown. The fictional Tigers legend, who sported the number 6 if I recall correctly, brought joy to a boy who had lost his father.
  • Bless You Boys also points us to some archived radio related to the Tigers. No play by play, but a couple of the clips have Paul Carey saying “Tigers Baseball” as only Paul Carey can. Plus, there is this gem, along with Bless You Boys.
  • There’s a blog looking back on the 1988 Topps baseball card set. Some recognizable names already have been profiled including: Jim Walewander, Dan Petry, and Lance Parrish.
  • Lastly, The Hardball Times Season Preview is now out. I’ll confess that I don’t have a copy yet so I can’t vouch for it. But I do know many of the bloggers on the list, and I’ll be happy to vouch for their work. Included in that list is Brian from Tigerblog who wrote the Tigers section.
2008 Season, Players

Inge to return

27 Comments

Brandon Inge has come to terms, sort of, about losing his starting gig. He will report to camp with pitchers and catchers and is ready to do what ever it takes to get on the field.

In breaking his media silence Inge said he was disappointed. He also went on to explain his mindset a little bit

“I look at it this way. My absolute preference would be to stay in Detroit as the starting third baseman. My next preference would be to stay in Detroit, starting at any other position. Next on the list would be to start elsewhere at third base — and fourth would be to stay in Detroit as a bench guy.”

As for catching, Inge said, “I can still do it. I’ll do whatever helps this team win as many games as it can. That’s the hand I’ve been dealt and I have to make the best of it.

Inge lovers and Inge haters are likely to break down his statements (and there’s more than just the quote, click through for the rest) in the same polarizing way they break down much of what Inge does. I’ll do what I usually do and hang out right in the middle.

The Good

The guy just wants to play everyday. I can’t fault a guy for that attitude and it’s pretty much exactly what I’d hope for from a player. He also sounds very hungry, which could bode well if he can translate any of that into performance. He’s also advocating doing what he can to help the team win. He’s also got an eye towards being the starter in 2009 which could help the Tigers who don’t have a ready replacement.

The Bad

He still doesn’t seem to own any of his demotion and views it as something that happened to him. I have no problem with that attitude if he had replicated 2006 last year and they still went and got Cabrera. But Inge played his way out the starting role. Much like the Ted Williams comment, and the Babe Ruth comment, and the other statements made during his struggles this last year, he hasn’t recognized that his performance is part of the problem.

As for what it means for the team, this settles any ambiguity about what will happen if Vance Wilson isn’t ready. The Tigers also have a player they can stick all over the field and get some solid defense. It also gives Brandon a chance to re-establish some value for either a future starting gig or a possible mid season trade. This is pretty much what had to happen for both sides, and I’m glad it’s working out.

Players

Obligatory post about Canseco

15 Comments

Canseco Is Said to Have Sought Favor to Omit Name – New York Times

Washed up super star needs some money so he writes a tell-all book about all the guys he got into steroids. Washed up superstar creates fervor around the topic but most people blow him off. Subsequent information, some real some circumstantial, about steroid users surfaces and maybe washed up superstar was on to something all along.

Washed up superstar writes another book as another money grab. He also tries to make the first book into a movie but washed up superstar can’t finance it, and can’t find other people to invest in the film that is largely focused on washed up superstar and his proclivity for injecting things into the gluteal regions of himself and other superstars (hard to belive, that sounds like great cinema).

Washed up superstar makes list of guys he played with. Washed up superstar makes a second list after looking at who had the best seasons in 2007 and will garner the most attention. Washed up superstar sees that Magglio Ordonez shows up on both lists.

Washed up superstar calls Ordonez and says pay-up or your name gets dragged through the mud. Ordonez takes the reasonable step of notifying his employer (Dave Dombrowski) and his agent (Scott Boras) who take the reasonable step of contacting federal law enforcement authorities.

That’s the story. Make of it what you will. I’m not going to sit here and say whether or not Ordonez was ever a steroid user. Given what we know and don’t know about MLB over the last decade and a half I think it’s foolish for anybody to make a claim either way. What I do know is that when Canseco was busy naming names in 2005, Ordonez’s name was no where to be found. Then again Ordonez was coming off a season that was lost in large part to a knee injury. His name is much sexier after winning the batting title. Nevermind the fact that it’s been 6 years since the two were teammates, and I’m not entirely sure what 2001 has to do with 2007.
Continue reading Obligatory post about Canseco →

Players, Roster Management, Trade Rumors

Third baseman for sale

38 Comments

The Brandon Inge situation has become all consuming for the Free Press and News. In all fairness, things have been pretty quiet on the Tigers beat with the Willis signing the only news since the Winter Meetings. In the first article of substance though, Lynn Henning gets in touch with Dave Dombrowski and it’s looking more and more like Inge maybe a Tiger in 2008. Given the market for Inge, this is probably best for all parties.

Dombrowski has shown a willingness in the past that when it’s time to move a player who has generally been a good citizen, he’ll try to do it in a favorable way. He found decent situations for both Craig Monroe and Mike Maroth last season. When he cut Pena he did it early in the spring to give him more time to find another job rather than stringing him along. I have to believe Dombrowski is doing his best to honor Inge’s wishes to be moved. But unlike those other situations, Inge could still fill a need on the Tigers and probably carries more value for Detroit than any other team. Part of that is Inge’s contract which nobody wants to eat. Part of that is Inge supressing his own value with an awful offensive season in 2007.

Thankfully Dombrowski doesn’t seem intent on dealing Inge for nothing. For Detroit they have nothing to gain by moving him right now. Best case scenario is that Inge can re-establish himself in 2008 and he can be dealt for something in 2009. Worst case scenario is that Inge struggles again and the Tigers end up eating his contract – which is pretty much where they are at right now.

I understand that Inge wants to be a full time player, but he also needs to realize how unlikely that is unless he can show that he can hit like he did in 2004 through 2006. Versatility and general athleticism is what kept him the league when Pudge Rodriguez was acquired and that same versatility is his best hope at finding a starting job at some point in the future. With a DH that hasn’t played a full season since 2005, and a first baseman with creaky knees, there is a decent chance that there will be significant playing time for Inge even as a reserve (not implying that he’d play those positions, but it would create other oppotunities). Not to mention the Tigers might be kind of good this year and even a bench role isn’t exactly a death sentence.

Inge has been staying silent, which I can’t really hold against him. What exactly is he supposed to say at this point? What will be interesting is if Inge still considers himself a member of the team and participates in next week’s Tigerfest and Caravans. A low profile will be hard to maintain starting a week from today for Inge, whether or not he comes North for the festivities.

Tigers: Inge trade tricky

Brandon Inge’s giving spirit connects with local fans

2007 Season, Fan Experience, Players

How bout that Chad Durbin

3 Comments

I didn’t really expect to be writing another post about Chad Durbin. Sure, I was going to include a link at some point that he had signed with the Phillies, but that was just going to be a bullet point. But while reading Bless You Boys this morning, it was brought to my attention that Durbin took time to swing by Roar of the Tigers and leave a comment.

You see, Samara took a liking to Durbin following his spectacular effort against the White Sox earlier in the year. Samara thought the effort and Durbin were “pimp” and as Samara does she created an image to that effect. It came became a running thing. With Durbin leaving, Samra did one last pimp for Chad Durbin. Chad left the following comment on the post:

Samara,

Thanks so much for the attention and virtual pimp status! My family informed me last year of the blog and it was certainly the focus of some fun-poking on my account. I understand baseball’s dynamics and realize that it is hard to find reasons to cheer for some of the obscure, forgettable players. There are more “forgettable players” out there than the stars…we all understand that much. I don’t have to defend the amount of tremendous success a baseball player must have to reach even the obscure status, either…because this was all in fun. Thanks for finding reasons to make us/me unique. The beauty of free media, right??

I’ll have to check in to see who the next pimptim is…best of luck! Oh yeah, to ease your mind on having to cheer against me…I’ll most likely be in the NL. Pittsburgh, Philly, NYMets…somewhere like that.

Chad Durbin

Very cool on Chad’s part and very cool for Samara as well. And while I posted the comment here, the real incentive for you to click through to Roar of the Tigers is the imagery itself.

2007 Season, Pitching, Players

The Dontrelle Files

27 Comments

We know Dontrelle Willis has the big leg kick and the bigger smile, but let’s take a graphical and statistical look at the Tigers newest starter.

The pitch selection

Using Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool we can look at the mix of pitches that Willis throws and the success he has with each pitch in his repertoire.

Willis has 2 fastballs, one with more sink and vertical movement – presumably a 2 seamer – that he throws most frequently. He also appears to have a 4 seam fastball which he doesn’t throw as often. He has an 86 MPH change up and an 80 MPH slider that makes it tough for lefties.


Continue reading The Dontrelle Files →

Minors, Players

Gushing reports on Porcello

26 Comments

While the Tigers received bad news in the form of Casey Crosby’s Tommy John surgery, the news is ridiculously upbeat concerning Rick Porcello. Lynn Henning chats with Glenn Ezell (director of player development) and Jon Matlack (roving pitching instructor) and has all kinds of praise for the first rounder.

“I don’t know what he’ll pitch at, but he hit 97 (mph) numerous times and worked comfortably at 94-95,”

and…

“He has two quality breaking balls (overhand curveball and slider), which are occasionally above-average, and one of which I believe will become better than average.

“And he has a plus change-up,”

and…

“He can do things with his fastball: sink it, run it in, ride it. He is far, far advanced beyond just about anyone 18 years old I’ve ever worked with.”

Now keep in mind these are very early reports and are based solely on the instructional league. But it is far better than hearing that he sucks, or that is stuff is pretty good.

At the end Henning mentions that Porcello is likely to start the season at West Michigan, which was to be expected. But he also throws out the nugget that he could finish the year in Lakeland. Don’t know if that is speculation on Henning’s part, or if the Tigers will look to really challenge him – provided he fares okay for the Whitecaps

Players, Trade Rumors

Not Livan Hernandez

36 Comments

As the Tigers continue to look for a veteran starting pitcher, it was probably inevitable that speculation about former 1997 Florida Marlin Livan Hernandez would arise. Dave Dombrowski has a penchant for the familiar, and Jim Leyland seems to have a considerable say in roster construction, and Hernandez is an older NL player. Throw in a glaring Tigers need and this was bound to happen. But it shouldn’t and I get the feeling this could be Jose Mesa the sequel.

What Hernandez has going for him is that he’s a workhorse. He’s amassed over 200 innings every year since 1998 except for once, when he only got to 199 2/3. And for a time he was effective. From 2003 to 2005 he was a pretty good pitcher. But he’s turned in an ERA+ south of 100 9 times while being above average only 5 times. And that was when he was a younger pup.

He’s coming off an age 32 season in which he only struck out 3.96 batters per 9 innings and walked 3.48. He allowed 34 homers last year. Granted, Arizona is an easier place to hit homers with a park factor of 115 (15% easier to hit homers there than an average park), but the other numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. His FIP last year was a replacement level-esque 5.73. And if you’re wondering about the defense behind him, his fielders were a hair better than average last year. Using PMR, they converted 6 more balls in play into outs than would be expected.

Even if Hernandez were to benefit from a less homer friendly park, that benefit would be far surpassed by the hit he’d take for moving leagues and for his continued aging.

I understand the desire for a solid starting pitcher, but Hernandez doesn’t represent that. That the Tigers continue to focus on aging veteran players from the weaker league is a concern, and this is yet another instance. If the Tigers are looking for this type of production, and are looking to save money, just hand the ball to Jordan Tata or Virgil Vasquez or Yorman Bazardo who I am confident could post an ERA north of 5 just as easily as Hernandez could. And those guys make the league minimum. If you’re going to balk at paying $10-12 million for a league average pitcher, then $7 million for performance that could be had for free should surely make you shudder.

Contracts, Players

Tiger sign Todd Jones

52 Comments

The Tigers inked Todd Jones to a 1 year deal. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 2 Joneses today. I’ll have more tonight. In the meantime here is a post looking at Jones’ 2007 season.

Conference Call Notes

  • People are happy. Todd is happy. Dave is happy.
  • Jones’ kids are excited because they are friends with the other Tigers’ kids.
  • Dombrowski on getting other relievers: number one priority is getting a starting pitcher right now. He’s not forgetting about the bullpen, but feels that with Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney the pen is solid. (He also cited the experience that Zach Miner and Jason Grilli got last year). My take: it depends how much they spend on a starting pitcher as to what they’ll do with the pen.
  • Gotta run and will update with other notes later tonight

UPDATE: Flaky internet connection killed any updates last night. I’ll analyze both Jones transactions tonight.