Along with their player forecasts and team breakdowns, Baseball Prospectus publishes “stats” on managers long with a lengthy write-up…”Old Smokey remains one of the league’s better skippers…”

Generally, I think that day in/day obsession with the team grants us better insight then whatever stats BP can come up with, though it is difficult to argue with BP’s algorithmic brilliance and their ability to objectively quantify data, and only data.  Unfortunately, when it comes to managers, the numbers seem to be little more than obscure trivia answers.  With that in mind, I’ve posted some select “manager stats” below.  Pythag is the manager’s 2010 pythagorean expectation (a Bill James invention, read about it here or here), Avg. PC is the average pitch count per game, BQS is “blown quality starts,” REL is relievers used, and Rel w Zero R is relief appearances with zero runs allowed.

BP doesn’t list league averages, so I’ll post the rest of the division for comparison’s sake.

Hard to really get much out of that, but interesting fodder none the less.

I do, however, have some more useful figures, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

In 19 years as a manager, JL is 1493 and 1518, for a .496 winning percentage.  (Don’t look for him to get to .500 this year.)  He’s won one WS (’97 with the Marlins) and 2 pennants.  As the manager of the Tigers, he’s fared significantly better, 424-387 for a .523 winning percentage. Sounds pretty good, right?  Not when you look at his second half numbers.  The numbers below reflect Tigers’ records after the All Star break under Leyland.

’06 – 2 games under

’07 – 4 games under

’08 – 14 games under

’09 – even

’10 – 10 games under

Thus, since 2006, Leyland is an astonishing 30 games under .500 after the AS break, and an even more incredible 67 games over before the summer classic.  Looking at one season, maybe two, you can point to player drop-offs or injuries.  But five years is hardly a coincidence.

Continuing, I was shocked to see that JL was in the middle of the pack when it comes to using relievers, part of that is due to his willingness to let Verlander throw so many pitches (I’m not necessarily against that).  Though I did not post it above, his hit & run frequency was also in the middle of the pack for AL Central managers.

So in the end, I’ll leave it up to you guys.  Is Leyland one of the league’s “better skippers?”   Or does he simply have everyone fooled but us?

No, I wasn’t in Los Angeles for this series. This is more of a collection of postcard sized thoughts from the Tigers weekend series against the Dodgers.

Armando Galarraga

The theme for Galarraga was inconsistency with the slider. There were times that it was awesome, like when he got Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp flailing at pitches well outside of the strike zone. And then there was the at-bat where he hung multiple ones in the middle of the plate to Casey “freaking” Blake. It’s likely that Galarraga has one more start to make a statement before Max Scherzer is busting down the door to come back. Of course there is that other factor known as…

Dontrelle Willis

Willis looked terrific at times. He was getting ground ball after ground ball. He was working efficiently. And then things got funky with 2 outs in the 4th innings. A single, a wild pitch, and a walk seemed to set things in motion. Willis did hang in against Reed Johnson who worked a 9 pitch walk. But then it was  HBP and Willis never looked comfortable again.

That seems to be the story with Willis this year. It is a pretty fine line that Willis walks between effective and excruciating.

Strategery

I’m not so much a fan of National League baseball. I don’t care to see pitchers hitting, or being lifted while they are still effective for a pinch hitter. That said, Saturday and Sunday provided some interesting maneuvering by Jim Leyland. It worked on Sunday, not so much on Saturday.

Saturday we all understand the ramifications of Magglio Ordonez being lifted earlier in the game so he wasn’t available in the 9th inning. It’s kind of the nature of the beast and Leyland went all in earlier in the game. It happens. But I think back to a moment in the top of the 4th inning where the Tigers had 2 on and 2 outs and Armando Galarraga up. I understand wanting more than 3 innings from a starter, but Galarraga hadn’t been particularly effective and the Tigers needed runs. Leyland let Galarraga hit, the inning ended, and Galarraga came back and gave up 3 runs in the bottom half of the inning.

I’m not saying that Leyland messed up. It was the 4th inning after all. But with the benefit of hindsight it is easy to look back and say what if. I guess that’s the draw of NL ball.

Things went better in the 9th inning of Sunday’s game where Dontrelle Willis played a key role without getting in the batters box. It forced Torre’s hand and he did what Leyland wanted by bringing in the lefty. That Sherrill fell behind 2-1 and set up the perfect squeeze situation certainly made everyone look smarter.

R3L2O

The Tigers were remarkably efficient in the famous runner-on-third-with-less-than-2-outs scenarios this weekend. They capitalized in such a scenario in the first inning in each of the 3 games. For the season the Tigers have had 98 R3L2O scenarios and have scored 46 runs. The 47% success rate is below the league average of 49%.

Odds and Ends

• Danny Worth played some dazzling defense. The fact he has chipped in some singles is gravy at this point. He’s bringing to the table what Adam Everett is supposed to. This is probably premature, but how much more time does Everett have to get his batting average into the .220 range?
• The Austin Jackson play was scary, but fortunately there doesn’t appear to be physical damage beyond swelling which will hopefully go down quickly. Coincidentally enough there was a segment on Baseball Tonight on Thursday about David Wright’s struggles with the low and outside pitch since his beaning last season. I don’t know about the statistical relevance of those struggles, but it was the first thing that I thought of after seeing Jackson get up and walk off the field.
• Joel Zumaya was pretty nasty, but his fastball was down in velocity. He was sitting at 98-99mph and only hit 100mph once. I don’t know if this is cause for concern, or if it was done by design. It is something to watch though. Clearly, he was still effective, but he’s had a lot of multi-inning relief appearances and it bears watching.

Things have been very quiet here at DTW lately. While it wasn’t my intention for things to go dark here, when it’s a one person gig sometimes life gets in the way. Fortunately life will be out of the way this coming week so my winter meetings coverage should be pretty robust and very timely. In the mean time I’ll use this post as a way of catching up on everything that got neglected.

Polanco signs with the Phillies

The biggest new I failed to cover was the end of Placido Polanco’s career as a Tiger. This was a likely outcome after the Tigers declined to offer arbitration. With no draft pick attached the Phillies moved quickly and handed Polanco a 3 year, $18 million deal to play third base.

The deal was aggressive and it may have been an indication that the Phillies would have signed Polanco regardless of his arbitration situation. We’ll never know of course one way or the other. My guess though is that if the Phillies didn’t care about the pick, they probably could have signed him prior to the Tigers decision when there wouldn’t have been as much competition for his services. Beck has more on the negotiation and Tigers decision.

As for the deal itself, using WAR and Polanco’s past stats would indicate the Phillies got a steal just on the surface. Polanco has been at least a 3 WAR player the last 3 years which means he’s been worth about $12-14 million a season. But part of that value comes in the fact that Polanco played a premium position. He’ll lose some value moving to 3rd base. He’ll also age. He’s also playing a position he hasn’t played regularly since he was a Phillie last time around. I think Polanco will look like a bargain this year, but look pretty expensive at the end of the contract.

Brian Peterson & Cale Iorg interviews

Mark Anderson at TigsTown has been busy. Over the last week he’s conducted interviews with Cale Iorg and Brian Peterson. Everybody knows Iorg as the Tigers shortstop prospect where there has been a huge disagreement between tools and results. Iorg does seem to be a pretty sharp guy though who has dealt with the adversity well and isn’t afraid of hard work. When Anderson asked about his offseason Iorg’s response was:

I want to work out a lot, to try to get stronger and stuff. I just want to do a lot of hitting stuff. I can obviously work with my Dad. My Dad knows my swing better than anybody out there, so work with him and just really try to get my work in – get good work in. It’s not all about how many times I go, or how many swings I get when I get there; it’s just being consistent with what I do when I’m there. My whole off-season is to prepare for spring training. Whether I go to big league camp again, I don’t know yet, but if I do, then I want to be prepared to play like people have said I can play.

Now not as many people may know about Peterson. He is the organization’s Performance Enhancement Instructor and in his role he helps players with the mental side of the game. He’s been with the organization for seven years and he held a similar role with Dave Dombrowski’s Marlins teams as well. It appears that Dombrowski was an early mover in seeing the value in a role like this:

I think Dave has been very progressive. Theforiginal guy that started doing this type of work was Harvey Dorfman who the A’s used in the early 80’s. Dave Dombrowski hired Harvey with the Marlins in 1992 when we first started the Marlins organization. Dave has been really progressive in this area. He really believes in it and he knows that it helps players. I think he is one of the guys at the forefront in seeing that this type of position can really help the players.

Other stuff

• Joel Zumaya’s rehab is complete and he should be ready to go for spring training
• Danny Knobler wrote a really well reasoned analysis of the Tiger situation
• Jonathan Mayo took a look at the Tigers 2009 draft
• Lee Panas previews the winter meetings from the Tigers perspective
• Ernie Harwell makes a public appearance and steals the show

The Tigers announced yesterday that Tom Brookens would be the new first base and outfield and base running coach. Brookens is an organizational soldier and it’s nice to see him get the opportunity to don the Old English D again. But it does raise the question about the qualifications or importance of positional coaches.

Brookens of course knows baseball. The former 4th overall pick in the 1975 draft had a 12 year big league career and has managed in the Tigers organization at Oneonta, West Michigan, and Erie. But very little of that career came in the outfield. Very little.

I know that you don’t have to have been a great hitter to be a good hitting coach, and the same is true of pitching. There is clearly a difference between having the knowledge and communication skills and having the physical talent to carry that out. But hitting coaches still typically were hitters and pitching coaches still typically were pitchers. Brookens was primarily and infielder. Brookens himself addressed his lack of experience in the outfield in a conversation with Jason Beck.

"I think handling all those facets in the minor leagues will help me some," Brookens said. "Certainly my playings days didn’t take me to the outfield much. I know plenty about the fundamentals of the outfield, [such as] footwork, release points, and that’s a lot of what it comes down to, really. I’ve always considered myself a good baserunner. I don’t foresee any real problems with any of those."

Brookens did presumably pick up a great deal of experience coaching outfield in the minors. Managers at that level need to be a jack of all trades. But is there any value in having a coach who can share insights about reading the ball off the bat or subtleties of positioning that come from years actually playing the position? I don’t know. I’m just asking the question.

None of this is meant to discredit Brookens in any way. That same article from Beck mentioned that Brookens is viewed as a great communicator. Because he has spent the last half decade in the Tigers system, he probably brings with him some valuable insight into many of the players who the Tigers will rely on over the next couple seasons.

As for whether or not this move signals Tigers are grooming Brookens to become the next Tigers manager, that remains to be seen. I think Leyland has pretty much total control over his coaching hires. I do agree the Tigers have been promoting him through the system with that possibility in mind, but I don’t know that this promotion changes it at all. What it may mean though is that Leyland is trying to position his successor.

Debating Saturday’s starter, some news on a tiebreaker playoff game, and more from MLB’s punishment roulette wheel.

Figaro?

Alfredo Figaro has been tabbed for the start in a very key game on Saturday. This is the product of a rainout on Monday and a very young starter who’s arm warrants careful protection.

Rick Porcello simply isn’t an option for this game. Nick Blackburn, also bumped by Monday’s postponement is going on 3 days rest. Quite frankly the Twins don’t have the same type of investment in Blackburn’s future that the Tigers do in Porcello’s. This isn’t a matter of saving Porcello for the rest of the season, it is a matter of not being foolish with an elite talent.

Now Rob Neyer has suggested that the Tigers would be better served by pitching Verlander on short rest on Saturday and giving Porcello the start on Sunday. This is much more palatable from a workload perspective. Verlander looks to be a freak in terms of  his ability to handle high pitch counts…so far. We’ll know more by how he responds next year.

Leyland has a tight rope to walk in terms of planning for the next week and planning for the next day with his pitchers. As slim as the lead is, the Tigers are still in the lead. The Tigers are likely to need a horse to pitch 1 of the last 2 games, and possibly games on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Verlander and Porcello can’t pitch every game and Jackson’s reliability is questionable. So what is assured to be the lowest pressure game that the Tigers face from here on out? Saturday.

I understand that a win today makes everything easier from here on out and if the Tigers were in the Twins position the Tigers would have to absolutely go Verlander-Porcello and hope for the best. The Tigers slim lead does afford them some flexibility.

Regardless, Figaro isn’t going to lose the Saturday game for the Tigers. He won’t be left in long enough to let things get out of hand and if things take a bad turn Zach Miner will be in quickly. With a rested bullpen the Tigers are well equipped to handle the task.

Tiebreaker Tuesday

If a tiebreaker game is needed, the Twins would get to host it. The trouble is that tiebreaker would normally be played on Monday and the Vikings are hosting the Packers that night. If the game is needed it looks now like it would be played at 4 p.m. on Tuesday.

The Yankees have until 1 hour after their playoff opponent is known to decide if they’d like to start the series on Wednesday or Thursday.

Suspension Roulette

Jeremy Bonderman was suspended for plunking Delmon Young in Thursday’s game. This really isn’t surprising. Warnings had been issued and Bonderman threw at Young intentionally. I am surprised he’s appealing the suspension.

What’s surprising (in an equity sense and not a MLB’s randomized punishment structure sense) is that Jose Mijares who everyone admits threw at Adam Everett with intent and unprovoked received no suspension. Whatever MLB.

Earlier in the week Jim Leyland made the announcement that Rick Porcello’s  next start would come July 21st and that he has 15 starts left. Porcello has been on inning and pitch restrictions as the Tigers try not to burn out one of the most promising young arms in the game. Through his first 16 starts he has amassed 87 innings. With 15 more starts and assuming the same type of restrictions on start length he would finish this season with 165-170 innings. But do those 15 starts include a potential postseason appearance?

I decided to look at how things shake out the rest of the way. Barring rain outs and keeping the rotation intact Porcello’s remaining starts could be:

That’s 15 starts and it takes us right into the Tigers final series of the season against the White Sox. So if the Tigers do make the post season, does Rick Porcello have a role? Does he pitch out of the bullpen? Do they wait and see what happens? Or do they skip him at some point. In late August there are a couple of off days and the Tigers could push him back meaning he doesn’t pitch in the final series, saving a start for a potential post season appearance.

The latest technique to milk productivity from Magglio Ordonez is to platoon him and only give him starts against left handers. Clete Thomas will form the other side of the platoon which means he’ll get the bulk of the starts, especially with the team facing more right handers.

For his career, Ordonez has hit lefties about 12% better than righties (in terms of OPS). That differential is more pronounced this year with an 825 OPS against southpaws versus 611 against right handers. So if there is any advantage Leyland can give to Ordonez, it is probably a lefty only diet.

But where this gets really interesting of course is the impact on the vesting option. As of tonight, Ordonez is 166 plate appearances shy of his vesting option. Through the first 84 games the Tigers have faced 27 lefty starters. At the same rate the Tigers would face 25 more lefty starters this season, and with about 4 PA’s per start Ordonez would come up 60-70 plate appearances short of the vesting option. That is significant enough to not be conspicuous or grievance-able, especially if Thomas or a bat to be named later hits well enough against righties.

As for Ordonez’s take on the situation, it certainly is professional:

“When I produce, I play,” he said.

The Magglio Ordonez benching/non-benching is the story that just keeps on giving. At this point I think everybody except Barack Obama has had their say. Let’s put it all together and see what we can come up with:

Thursday

Jim Leyland announces that Ordonez wouldn’t be starting that night in St. Louis and that he would be out of the starting lineup indefinitely. Headline writers use the term “benched” liberally as it seems that Ordonez is being placed on the bench.

Friday

With a day to digest things, there is much more talk. Scott Boras weighed in as only Scott Boras can weigh in. Unfortunately the Detroit News changed the original article that ran where it was basically a book of quotes about how Magglio’s batting average was still good. Boras vehemently promoted Ordonez’s passable numbers and ignored the poor ones (like those related to hitting for power).

Meanwhile, Jim Leyland came out and said it wasn’t a benching, merely a way to try and get Ordonez going because nothing else they had tried was working.

"Magglio Ordonez is not benched," Leyland said. "What I said was, and what I meant was, that I’m going to get him out of there indefinitely. And what I mean by that is, by Magglio’s own admission, and from what I’ve seen and the coaches have seen, we were kind of beating our head against the wall, all of us.

"I’ve tried [batting him in] the third spot. I’ve tried the fifth spot. I’ve tried the sixth spot. For whatever reason, we just haven’t been able to get him going yet, and that’s also by his own admission."

Jason Beck also had quotes from Ordonez who is clearly frustrated by his performance, but at least he isn’t outwardly upset about the situation:

"We both try hard, the organization, everybody," Ordonez said. "They don’t want me to do bad. I don’t want to do bad."

Asked how he’s handling it himself, Ordonez said, "I’m handling it good. It’s something that I can’t control. I just prepare myself to be ready to play every day.

"I haven’t been hitting like I used to. But, like I said, I’m just going to come every day to the park ready to play. I don’t have control of the lineup. When he chooses me to play, I’ll be ready to play."

Saturday

After Leyland responded to the benching, it was now time for him to respond to comments from Boras. And respond he did:

"The main thing is Magglio and trying to get him right. This is about no other issue than Magglio Ordonez and trying to get him right so that he can contribute the way he feels good about himself. Because by own admission, he’s embarrassed."

"It was total nonsense on the agent’s part that I blindsided Magglio Ordonez," Leyland said. "I’ve had two or three conversations with Magglio Ordonez about this. I’m very respectful of Scott Boras, but I’m not going to listen to that. …

"That’s just unfair. We don’t blindside players here. We don’t not tell players the truth here. We don’t work that way here. And Scott Boras knows that in his heart. This is another grandstanding in the newspaper. That’s the end of that."

Leyland also said that Ordonez may return to the lineup on Tuesday.

Sunday

Actually I have no idea what Sunday will bring. But let’s read what is really happening here:

• Leyland may not be the best tactical manager. But by all accounts the clubhouse is behind him. The decision to sit or bench Ordonez was likely a difficult one and not one that was done likely.
• Leyland has also been fairly open about things. I don’t think he pulled the rug out from under Ordonez.
• Ordonez has never been a trouble maker, at least not in any way that has come to light. His comments on the situation are consistent in this regard. I don’t know if Boras is taking on the role of bad guy here so that Ordonez still appears favorably, or if Boras is just spouting off.  One way to clarify this, and perhaps win back a fan base that has grown increasingly nasty toward Maggs is for him to speak out against what Boras said.
• Boras is sending a message that he won’t tolerate option year avoidance tactics. Essentially he’s doing his job.
• Boras has no business dictating who plays and who doesn’t because last I checked he’s not a member of the Tigers organization and the manager doesn’t need to run things by him for approval.
• Boras does represent first round pick Jacob Turner but this should not be a factor in negotiations because it is his job to represent the best interests of Turner.
• I wrote about the playing time implications of the benching because I found that to be the most interesting angle. I don’t think that is the Tigers motivation because as I’ve said before they likely knew that the back end of the contract would be challenging at the time it was signed. My guess is that the Tigers would be thrilled to have Ordonez become a force again and earn his option year.
• Ilitch has a history of taking care of his players. I can’t see that changing in Magglio’s case.

The Tigers today announced the extension of Jim Leyland’s contract through the 2011 season.

“We are happy to announce a two-year contract extension for Jim Leyland today,” Tigers President, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager David Dombrowski said. “Jim is an outstanding manager and he has done a great job for the Tigers.  We look forward to Jim leading our club for years to come.”

Edwin Jackson threw 132 pitches to help the Tigers complete a sweep of the Texas Rangers. Pitch counts and the hubbub around them are fodder for controversy. I tend to favor caution in these scenarios but am willing to consider each game on an individual basis. Who was the pitcher? What was the game state? Is there an off day coming up? How much rest is he pitching on? What is the pitcher’s injury history? And on and on. I don’t think there is a simple answer to the right number of pitches, but today Jim Leyland left Edwin Jackson in too long. I worry if this is going to be a pattern in 2009.

Let’s look at today’s game and analyze the situation. Jackson had an extra day of rest having last pitched on Friday. His pitch count was also a manageable 97 pitches in that last start, well at least it seemed manageable. But don’t forget there was a rain delay that lasted over an hour and Jackson pitched on both sides of that delay meaning he threw extra pitches in the cage. His workload was actually higher that game than the 97 pitches would indicate.

As for today’s game, it was close. Jackson entered the 8th inning at 105 pitches protecting a 3-1 lead. I have no problem with Jackson starting the inning. Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney had pitched the previous two games and I understand that Leyland would want to save one of the two. If he can get Jackson through the 8th he only needs 3 more outs and Jackson looked strong in the 7th fanning the side (and allowing a double).

Jackson then walked the leadoff hitter on 5 pitches pushing his pitch count total to 110. The walk wasn’t a good sign and may have been cause to go the bullpen at that point. Michael Young was up next and Jackson had him at an 0 for 4 day. Young went on to hit the first pitch to the warning track in left-center. So now Jackson is at 111 pitches and has allowed a walk and an very well hit ball. Yet another opportunity to lift him.

Hank Blalock, a switch hitter who mitigates a lefty/righty platoon play is up next. Instead of picking a new pitcher Leyland leaves Jackson in. On the 6th pitch of the at-bat and the 117th of the day Blalock lifted a ball to the wall that was about 2 feet short of home run. Clete Thomas probably should have caught the ball but it went for a double. So the tally for the inning is a walk and 2 hard struck balls and a pitcher with 117 pitches under his belt.

Still no pitching change though and Jackson gets a brief reprieve as Marlon Byrd pops up pitch 118 to the shortstop but the tying run is still in scoring position and Nelson Cruz is up. Both Bobby Seay and Ryan Perry were warm. Perry could have come in, and even if he struggled with his control there was an open base and a struggling Chris Davis on deck. But Jackson stayed into pitch to Cruz and after getting ahead 1-2 Cruz laced pitch 122 to the gap tying the game. At this point Jackson has to come out right? A walk and 3 smoked balls in the inning weren’t enough.

Jackson then walked Chris Davis on 6 pitches. I think at this point, whether you believe in pitch counts or not, Jackson deserved to be lifted for ineffectiveness. To his credit Jackson was still throwing 97, but location was a problem. Jackson stayed in and eventually finished off Saltalamacchia on 4 pitches. I guess that makes it the right decision? I don’t think so.

The reasons for keeping Jackson in this game weren’t the right reasons. It didn’t look right strategically and it wasn’t right from a responsible pitch management perspective. The only reasons to keep him in were either to try and get him the W or an ancient belief that “real men don’t need pitch counts.”

But what worries me more is a pattern that Jim Leyland seems to be establishing this season. I didn’t agree with his usage of Jackson in his last start either to run his true workload that high in a game where the Tigers had a sizable lead. Beyond Jackson, Justin Verlander has thrown 110 pitches or more in each of his last 5 starts and has averaged 119 pitches in his last 4. I haven’t had issue with his use of Verlander in the individual games from a strategic perspective. And if Verlander tops 120 pitches it isn’t a disaster. But to routinely be touching that mark I think is too much. At some point one of these guys will need a light day.

Today’s game has caused me wonder if this is the price of having a manager on the last year of his contract. Is Leyland managing for an in season extension or for the long haul? I don’t mean he is doing anything in a sinister way or with intentional malice. But his situation dictates that the very short term takes precedence over the long term.

With today’s rain out, the Tigers have changed their rotation, or have they demoted Zach Miner to the bullpen?

The two different stories have a different feel to be sure. First though, the upcoming pitchers are: Galarraga, Verlander, Jackson, Porcello. That’s what we know for sure. The Tigers are effectively skipping Rick Porcello this turn through the rotation. And with an off day Thursday, and another off day on Monday, Galarraga is expected to start the Tuesday game in LAAnaheim. Which means Zach Miner is being skipped in the next turn through the rotation.

I really think this is more a matter of maximizing the starts for the Verlander/Galarraga/Jackson triumvirate than it is a relegation of Zach Miner to the bullpen. Miner wasn’t good on Monday, but not many pitchers were good in that weather and I can’t see that as a reason for him to lose a spot in the rotation. But…who knows what will happen between now and the next time the team needs a 5th starter.

Gut wrenching losses are good fodder for second guessing (and page views). My thoughts and perspective on what happened last night (some of these may sound like a defense of decisions made or not made, that’s not necessarily the intent).

1. Why take out Edwin Jackson, he was pitching awesome? Edwin Jackson had been pitching awesome, until he lost his control. For those that hate pitch counts as a reason to pull a pitcher, you should love this decision. Clearly the 89 pitches weren’t the issue. It was the fact that after peppering the strike zone all night he started falling behind hitters.

2. Why only one batter for Bobby Seay? Leyland was playing platoon advantages. Look at the righties coming up after Snider. There wasn’t a lefty in sight. Seay did his job.

3. Why not Ryan Perry then? The popular belief is that this was too much of a pressure situation for a debut. I don’t believe it, and I don’t think Leyland does either. When Zumaya debuted it was in a hold situation. He’s not afraid of that at all. And really, if Perry comes in a blows it then how many question why he was brought into a pressure situation to debut? A ton. Most questioned when Rodney and Zumaya were brought into pressure situations when first returning last year, and they’d faced those situations before. No. The real reason was because at the moment Leyland views Lyon as his second best reliever behind Fernando Rodney.

4. Why use your second best reliever in such a high leverage situation? This is the better question, and one that stat heads have been hammering on managers for for years. But if it’s not the 9th you can’t use your closer for some reason.

5. Why leave Lyon out there in the 9th? I’ve got nothing. This was stupid. Even if you let him start the inning, when he continues to struggle why not go get him. Ridiculous.

The Tigers struggled with walks in 2008. This is well documented and fairly obvious with the Tigers issuing more walks than every team other than Texas. It resulted in Chuck Hernandez losing his job and the Tigers bringing in a coach who built his reputation on pounding the strike zone. But a significant chunk of those walks came at the hands of Jim Leyland.

The Tigers led the American League in intentional walks with 63. The next closest team had 45 which means Detroit issued 42% more walks than the next most free pass happy team. It also means that instead of ranking 13th in the AL in walks, they rank 11th in unintentional walks. Still poor, but not as ridiculously awful.

Let’s take a look at Leyland’s intentional walk profile for 2008:

• Justin Verlander led the way with 8 IBB’s. Bobby Seay and Nate Robertson each had 7 and Fernando Rodney had 5. Probably a bad sign when your closer has 5 intentional walks.
• Over half the walks came from the 7th inning on. Two were issued in the first inning. That can’t be a good sign.
• Justin Morneau picked up 5 intentional walks, that probably was actually a good move. 
• Opposing catchers received 11 intentional walks with AJ Pierzynski leading the way. 
• 21 of the walks came when the Tigers were already trailing by 3 or more runs.
• 20 of the walks resulted in the bases being loaded.

Many of these seem to be indicators of trouble and would seem to be ill advised. The blog Fire Jim Bowden took at look at all the IBB’s issued in 2008 and classified them as to whether or the walks were “maybe smart” or “definitely not smart.” The criteria for these classifications is laid out in The Book. What he found was that Jim Leyland ranked second in all of baseball in “definitely not smart” IBBs.

While a statistical and logical basis is a wonderful thing to have, sometimes managers play their hunches and intuition. Maybe things will work out? Earlier in the year I looked at how poorly things were turning out after IBBs were issued. The Bill James Handbook tracked the results and they broke down like this:

• Good: The inning resulted in a double play and/or the team escaped without further runs being scored (37)
• Not Good: Runs scored and a double play wasn’t turned (26)
• Bomb: Multiple runs scored (13)

Both Leyland’s 37 good and 26 not good were tops. Clearly there was a volume thing in play here. And I can’t tell you how many of the 17 “definitely not smart” IBBs produced the following results, I’d venture a guess that hunches didn’t out weigh the logic. And the resulting ratio isn’t particularly impressive.

Charlie Manuel by comparison issued 64 intentional walks, but had a 46:18 good to not good ratio. But Leyland’s ratio wasn’t horrible either. Eric Wedge only issued 28 IBBs and only 6 of those were classified as good.  Ron Washington and Dave Trembley ended up on the wrong side of the ratio as well. Coincidentally the Orioles and Rangers were also languishing at the bottom in total walks allowed. I’ll go out on a limb and say that taking a pitching staff that has a hard time throwing strikes, and then putting extra runners on base probably isn’t a good idea.

Fortunately Leyland doesn’t have a history of issuing a lot of IBBs. In 2006 he only allowed 35 so in some way he was probably just responding to the struggles of his staff in ’08. But the Tigers could improve their walks allowed in 09 simply by the manager allowing fewer “free” free passes.

The Tigers found their pitching coach, and they poached him from the Twins. He is Rick Knapp and he’s served as the minor league pitching coordinator for the last 12 years in the Minnesota organization.

I really like this move. The Twins have a tradition of producing striking throwing machines on a regular basis, and you’d have to think that Knapp gets some of that credit. The Twins have walked the fewest number of hitters in the AL in 4 of the last 5 years.

The trick for Knapp now is to see if he can translate his development skills to pro pitchers and get the Tigers staff throwing strikes. His biggest challenge of course is with Dontrelle Willis, who’s struggles are well known. He will largely be evaluated though based on his work with Justin Verlander to see if he can help Verlander regain his studly-ness.

I am excited about Knapp’s long term potential impact as he imparts his philosophies on the young pitchers in the organization. Plus he won’t be churning out those arms for the division-rival Twins anymore.

Google Stalking

• Jeff Passan wrote an article in August and Knapp was largely the subject. But one takeaway was that the Twins control strength goes beyond instruction and it is an organizational philosophy that goes down to talent evaluation. It will be very interesting to see what Knapp does with guys who were largely sought out for velocity and stuff.
• In an article about Kevin Cameron, Cameron mentions that one year there was a rash of shoulder injuries to many Twins minor league pitchers. I don’t like the sound of that, but don’t know enough about it to judge either.
• Knapp was discussed in reference to some tools and techiniques he used in assisting David Bromberg. (h/t)

…when he left for Lakeland. Or he’s going with a new look. A beard and no cigarette.

credit Roger DeWitt

(Yeah, it’s been a long week and I don’t have any analysis to post yet).