The Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a 5 year contract worth $80 million according to Larry Lage of the AP. Verlander was at the Tigers Lakeland facility working out earlier today. The deal locks up the ace through the 2014 season and it bests the 5 year $78 million deal that Felix Hernandez received earlier this month.

A long an expensive contract for any player, and pitchers in particular, is a risk. But there are certain players that are worth a gamble. Verlander had 2 years until free agency where if he continues to perform he would have netted a deal well in excess of $100 million. The Tigers secured his first 3 years of free agency at what will hopefully be a bargain.

The Hernandez comparisons are especially germane, and if you like the King Felix signing the Verlander one is just as palatable. Verlander has been at least an $11 million pitcher in each of his 4 years and with his big season in 2009 he has produced $80 million in value for the Tigers. He was likely to make about $8-9 million in 2010 regardless. He guaranteed himself an additional 4 years and $70 million.

While I think that Hernandez should get more because he is 3 years younger and if I had to pick one, I’d pick Hernandez, both are exceptional pitchers with similarly impressive resumes. I don’t want to get into a Felix/Justin debate. They are both studs and a difference of a couple million over 5 years isn’t really a difference at all.

I am concerned about Verlander’s workload the past few seasons, and last year in particular. He didn’t seem to suffer any consequences though and the hope is that JV is one of those freaks. The upside is that the contract expires when Verlander is only 31 meaning that like Cabrera, the Tigers have locked him up for his peak years.

Photo credit:  Hueytaxi on flickr – photo taken February 3rd, 2010

The Tigers today managed to scrounge up $23 million and invested that in Jose Valverde. The deal is reportedly 2 years and $14 million plus a $9 million option for a 3rd year. For a team looking to be more fiscally responsible and acquire cheap young high end talent to build for the future this move makes no sense.

Valverde is a pretty good pitcher. He fans better than a batter an inning with moderate control making him a 3.47 FIP pitcher for his career. He also brings some experience to a very very young bullpen. There might be some value in that. In short, the Tigers are better than they were yesterday. But…

This is a team, that depending on your take on the situation, was either:

• Trying to get younger and build for the future. Or…
• Trying to shed payroll

Which makes spending $7 million a year the next 2 years for 120 innings perplexing to say the least. Throw in the fact that the Tigers spent the 2008 draft acquiring college relievers who were close to big league ready, and that they insisted on Daniel Schlereth being part of the Granderson/Jackson trade, and none of it makes sense.

The Tigers based on run differential were a .500 team in 2009 and they have moved the wrong direction this year. Even in a weak division I don’t see Valverde being the difference between contending and not contending meaning that Valverde is more luxury than necessity. A luxury that not only costs them money, but also Detroit’s first round draft pick. The kind of pick that would probably be in the top 5 prospects in the Tigers system.

Valverde has accumulated 6.4 wins above replacement in his career. Curtis Granderson accumulated 7.1 WAR in the last 2 seasons, one of which was supposedly so awful the Tigers just had to move him. I just don’t get the Tigers current method of resource allocation.

Image credit: cobalt123 on flickr

The Tigers announced that they have signed Ramon Santiago to a 2 year contract. Santiago has 5.095 years of service time meaning that the contract secures him through his club control years.

I’m a little surprised to see a 2 year deal for Santiago who is essentially a utility player. Terms weren’t announced, but Santiago made $825,000 last year meaning this deal will probably pay him a little over $1 million each of the next 2 seasons. Santiago is an average-ish defender who showed some surprising power the last 2 years. He was a .5 WAR player last year and a 1 WAR player the year before.

The Tigers avoid arbitration with Santiago and have 13 of their 40 players signed for 2010.

Image credit: DanCox on flickr

The good news for Tigers fans is that according to Jon Paul Morosi a couple of sources say it is unlikely that the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera this week. Salary relief would of course be nice, but Morosi raises another good point. Trading away a team’s best player likely sends the wrong message to the player you’d like to keep around.

Verlander, who is on the verge of receiving a big raise in salary arbitration, is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. If the Tigers trade prominent players such as Granderson and Jackson, they may have a difficult time convincing Verlander to remain in Detroit for the long term.

It’s quite the conundrum for the Tigers. The cash saved by in the future by moving Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson would certainly help with the flexibility to sign Justin Verlander but it would also make the climate less attractive. Verlander will get his money regardless so he’ll be able to look for a favorable situation.

As for what it will take to sign Verlander, we can start by looking at some rumors swirling around Felix Hernandez who like Verlander is 2 years removed from free agency. Ken Rosenthal reports that the two sides are far apart on a long term deal where the starting point was a 4 year $45 million offer.

Hernandez should command more because as good as Verlander has been, King Felix has been better and is 3 years younger. Still, it would take probably $20 million to buy out Verlander’s 2 arbitration years and then $15-18 million per year after that at least.

The Tuesday deadline for teams to offer their departing free agents arbitration is approaching. The Tigers have three cases that are garnering some attention in Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney.

Placido Polanco

The Polanco situation is the most delicate. The Tigers have Scott Sizemore ready to take over second base (provided his ankle heals in time). Polanco is also a Type A free agent meaning that if the Tigers offer arbitration and Polanco signs elsewhere the Tigers would net a first (or second) round pick from the signing team as well as a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

Polanco is likely to garner enough attention and come at an affordable enough price that he could net himself a multiyear contract, except for that pesky compensation pick. I would be surprised if many teams would be willing to sacrifice a top pick for the right to sign a 34 year old second baseman who doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t take a lot of walks. Polanco’s value is tied specifically to his batting average and his defensive ability. Both are items that are at risk of decline given his age.

Then there is the payroll issue. While I don’t buy the fire sale talk I do buy the theory that the Tigers have limited financial flexibility. Polanco and his likely $5-6 million salary aren’t prohibitive in general, but when there is a replacement who stands to make $400,000 that is a sizable cost.

Much like the Edgar Renteria situation last year, the Tigers aren’t going to gamble on Polanco signing somewhere else to get the draft picks. If the Tigers offer him arbitration it’s because they want to bring him back, not to get the compensatory picks.

It isn’t Dave Dombrowski’s pattern to offer just to get draft picks, and he hasn’t rolled the dice like that in his Detroit tenure. The Tigers did receive a sandwich pick for Jamie Walker, but he was signed by another team before the deadline.

The relievers

The cases of Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are considerably simpler. Both are Type B free agents meaning that it is only a supplemental pick the Tigers would earn and the signing team wouldn’t have to surrender anything. An offer of arbitration by the Tigers wouldn’t cut into the market value for either.

Lyon has expressed his desire for a multi-year deal. The Tigers would probably love to have him on a one year deal, but may pursue a 2 year deal with him as well. He likely wouldn’t make significantly more than he did this past season, and while I’m not big on spending big money on the bullpen and I think “veteran presence” is often over-valued, there is something to be said for the stability that Lyon would bring. In other words I fully expect Lyon to get an arbitration offer. There really isn’t a worst case here (unless the Tigers sign him and he gets injured).

Fernando Rodney on the other hand I would expect to be a long shot. I’ve been a Rodney supporter because when he’s healthy he can be an effective pitcher. The trouble is he’s only been healthy 2 of the last 5 seasons, and even then he isn’t a consistently dominant pitcher. There’s a thought that some team will see the big save total and ignore the fact that he walked quite a few and had pretty shaky peripherals. But other teams have access to all the same information so even with the save percentage I doubt he’ll be able to parlay that into a big contract.

The Tigers may view Rodney as a fall back plan for Lyon, but I don’t know that the Tigers have $10 million to spend on the pair of bullpen arms.

Predictions

Because of Dombrowski’s track record of not offering just to get picks, and the Tigers financial friction I’m not confident that the team will offer arbitration to more than Brandon Lyon. If they do offer it to Rodney and Polanco, it is with the intent to try and sign them. Not to just pick up extra draft picks.

For others thoughts on the Tigers arbitration decisions check out’:

• Mack Avenue Tigers
• Detroit Tiger Tales
• Lynn Henning
• John Lowe

Dave Dombrowski met with the press today and fielded questions for about an hour. Jaosn Beck, Tom Gage, and John Lowe had it covered. There is enough there to warrant about 6 posts worth of further explanation. But until that happens…

Miguel Cabrera

Dombrowski had a range of emotions about the situation, many were negative, but it wasn’t the first time he’s been in this situation in his 20 years as GM. It’s not surprising that he believes Cabrera will take the necessary steps. As for the question on whether he should have played Saturday night, that gets a little more gray. The response was:

“First of all, you have some legalities that are involved. You probably should know the rules when it comes to the Basic Agreement (the collective-bargaining agreement between the clubs and the players union).

“Secondly, we thought he was capable of going out there and playing.”

I admit to knowing nothing about the rules involved when a player has been drinking and is scheduled to play. I will say the answer was somewhat evasive in that they “thought” he was capable of playing. There was no comment on whether they thought they made the right decision.

Lloyd McClendon

Dombrowski said he was a “very good hitting coach” but he also made no commitment about the coaching staff remaining the same. I still think McClendon is gone. He could very well be a good hitting coach, but the players did not respond to him this year. Whether or not he knows what he’s doing becomes moot if it isn’t being translated to results.

Dombrowski also spoke of changing the team’s approach throughout the organization with regards to plate discipline (like increasing it). Toby Harrah is the minor league hitting coordinator so his job may be at stake as well, but when you’re talking about an organization wide change in philosophy that doesn’t bode well for the incumbent hitting coach. (I have a full McClendon post I’ve been working on for about 2 weeks so there is more coming).

The final likely dagger is probably that Dombrowski said he expects much of the offensive improvement next year to come from within, kind of like the expectation about pitching improvement going into 2009.

Free Agents

Dombrowski didn’t say much except to say he didn’t have a budget yet but that he can’t retain all the free agents. Beck astutely pointed out that Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn are in that pool thought so he didn’t really tip his hand too much about the fates of Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Adam Everett.

He did say that the team would likely use a rotation at the designated hitter spot which makes sense. No need to pay extra for DH’s when you have a couple on the roster already.

Jim Leyland

Okay, he didn’t say anything about Jim Leyland. But for those who think he should be fired Dombrowski said that he thought this was about an 86 win team. The team won 86 games. So in Dombrowski’s view they didn’t really under perform so I wouldn’t expect Leyland’s demise anytime soon.

There has been a growing sentiment that the Tigers need to release Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez has a very expensive $18 million option for 2010 that will automatically vest if Ordonez notches 249 more plate appearances this season. He also has a $15 million option for 2011 that vests if he has 270 starts or 1080 plate appearances between 2009 and 2010 (info from Cot’s Contracts). I think it is clear to everyone that Ordonez is a very long shot produce like a “$15 million player.” But if the Tigers cut him, it won’t be as simple as walking away from money owed.

Ken Rosenthal, in an article about a potential grievance that Tom Glavine may file after his release, points out that the CBA prohibits teams from cutting players for financial reasons. Ordonez has been struggling this year and a sub .400 slugging percentage isn’t at all sufficient. But the Tigers would be hard pressed to prove that even at his current numbers, cutting Ordonez wasn’t a financially motivated decision.

When Gary Sheffield was released, he was still going to get his money regardless. There was no financial motivation. With Ordonez there are two things working against the Tigers releasing him for performance based reasons. First, while the slugging percentage is low he does have the 3rd highest on base percentage on the team. The performance isn’t satisfactory or sufficient but he’s also far from a black hole in the lineup. He also has enough of a track record that I think the numbers do improve, probably not to his career levels, but I think they will be better.

Second, there is no argument to be made that his position on the roster is blocking anyone. There isn’t a stud prospect waiting in the wings and he’s not taking at-bats from anyone more deserving. it’s possible Wilkin Ramirez could become that guy, but he sure isn’t there yet.

Cutting Ordonez is the right move on the surface because he won’t perform like a guy who will make $33 million the next two years, but I’m pretty sure the Tigers knew that when they signed him in the first place. They had to pay the Tigers Tax for their years of futility to get Ordonez in the fold. So the Tigers knew they would be in the situation when they inked the deal.

Lastly, if you’re a believer in clubhouse chemistry, how do you think it would play for the other 24 guys to see their organization dump a guy to avoid paying him?

The Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to terms on a one year deal. I’ll update with terms when I find them. And the streak of not going to arbitration continues for Dombrowski.

UPDATE: It’s 3.675 million. A couple hundred thousand less than I thought.

Also know that this doesn’t prevent a longer term deal at all. Miguel Cabrera and Fernando Rodney signed one year deals the last couple years, only to sign longer deals within a few weeks.

In a world without substantial baseball news, the fact that Justin Verlander hasn’t inked a deal yet is garnering some attention. When the two sides submitted their numbers to the arbitrator, they were about a million dollars a part (Verlander wants $4.15 and the Tigers offered $3.2). The Tigers have never had an arbitration hearing under Dave Dombrowski, but that possibility is increasing with the hearing date set for February 13th.So what should Verlander get paid?

One approach is to look at comparable players who signed recently. You can look at Cole Hamels, so was also arbitration eligible for the first time this year. Hamels is coming off his best season of his young career where he posted a 3.09 ERA over 227.3 innings in a very hitter friendly park. Hamels inked a 3 year deal buying out his arbitration eligible years and will be paid $4.35 milloion in 09, $6.65 million in 10 and $9.5 million in 11.

Hamels is 2 years younger. Hamels has a better strike out rate (8.3 vs. 7.16), better walk rate(2.39 vs. 3.29), and a better ERA (3.43 vs. 4.11) than Verlander in his 3 seasons. Verlander has the edge in home run rate (.9 vs. 1.19) and innings pitched (600 vs. 543). Verlander also has a Rookie of the Year award and a no hitter under his belt. The latter two shouldn’t strictly play a factor in terms of value, but will certainly be given some consideration.

Based on what Hamels will be paid this year, Verlander’s request may be a tad high but not at all unreasonable. Also Hamels deal is part of a longer term deal that guarantees him $20.5 million. If it’s a one year deal would Hamels have settled for that amount or gone for a little more?

The other way to look at the contract is in terms of pure value. The last 3 years Verlander has been 3.1, 4.0, and 3.3 wins above replacement respectfully (these aren’t wins in the wins and losses sense, they are a measure of how many additional runs Verlander prevents over a replacement level pitcher and then the runs are converted to wins). If you figure him to be a 3.5 win pitcher that would put him at $16.8 million on the open market. But Verlander is 3 years away from hitting the open market so his contract needs to be discounted. The amount of the discount is what is hard to figure. Even discounting it by two-thirds means that Verlander would receive $5.5 which would be a whole lot for a first year arbitration eligible player. It also means that even at $4.15 million the Tigers would still be in good shape.

Dave Dombrowski is hopeful a deal will get done and Justin Verlander doesn’t seem worried. It could be taking longer because they are trying to work out a longer term deal as well. The Tigers don’t appear to be low-balling and Verlander isn’t asking for an unreasonable amount. My guess is that the two sides decide on something in between but closer to Verlander’s number, like around $3.9 million give or take $50k.

The Tigers will formally announce the signing of Brandon Lyon on Saturday. Terms are not immediately available but it is likely a one or two year contract. Lyon isn’t necessarily being handed the closers position, but he will definitely have a shot to claim it.

UPDATE 2:49 The deal is one year and $4.25 million with another half million in incentives. Eddie Bonine was DFA’d to make room on the 40 man roster

Lyon served as the Diamondbacks closer for the first half of 2008 before losing the job. The ERA and WHIP weren’t impressive last year, but there are a couple of quirks at play. First was a very high .355 BABIP. The second, and likely the reason for the first, is he was tremendously unlucky on ground balls. Last year 13.4% of the ground balls he allowed resulted in infield hits. To provide some context, Ichiro Suzuki has a career 12.2% mark. Suffice it to say that it was abnormally high and likely to correct itself.

The high BABIP resulted in an ERA a nearly a run higher than his FIP.

Detroit Tiger Tales also points out his clean outing rate. Even in 2008, it was higher than every current Tiger reliever other than Clay Rapada and it compares favorably to Trevor Hoffman, Takashi Saito, and Juan Cruz.

I don’t know that Brandon Lyon is the savior at closer, but the signing demonstrably improves the bullpen provided his second half struggles in 2008 were not the result of some sort of injury that could carry over to 2009.

The Tigers inked 4 of the 5 arbitration eligible players today. Gerald Laird ($2.8), Edwin Jackson ($2.2), Bobby Seay ($1.1) and Joel Zumaya ($733,000) are all in the fold. Missing from that list is Justin Verlander.

Verlander is the only one of the group likely to be in the mix for a long term deal. It’s also something he may not be eager to sign in the worst offseason for contracts in recent memory, and coming off a season when his numbers were down.

Verlander and the Tigers exchanged numbers and Detroit is offering $3.2 while Verlander is asking for $4.15. It’s a very manageable difference and I’ll guess they settle somewhere around $3.8.

I have updated the salary chart and the team looks to be at about $117 million at the moment.

Tigers ink four, ponder Verlander terms | tigers.com: News

The Tigers signed Marcus Thames and Fernando Rodney to one year deals. Both were arbitration eligible. Terms weren’t disclosed, but I’ll guess that Thames gets $1.8 million and Rodney gets $2.1 million. It looks like Rodney gets $2.7 million.

That leaves Gerald Laird, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and Bobby Seay as the arbitration eligible players left to be signed. The Tigers have not gone to arbitration with a player since Dave Dombrowski took over.

Buster Olney weighs in on how the economy is impacting team spending:

Throughout baseball, budgets are being downsized from week to week to reflect the latest read on the economy, and what you are about to see — once the smoke clears from the Sabathia and Burnett and Teixeira news conferences — is a stunning drop in salaries for the free agents, a time when solid veteran players might be fortunate to get one-year offers for $5 million to $8 million. General managers throughout the game are reporting, on background, that their payrolls are being locked down, cut down, slashed.

It’s a topic that I’ve speculated on (mostly in the video chats) as it relates to the Tigers. Before the global recession hammered the Big 3 and they had to go looking to the government for money, Dave Dombrowski said he was looking at a payroll in line with last year. But with a dip in attendance that could likely go beyond the slippage due to the team’s disappointing 2008, plus a potential loss of GM sponsorship money, the Tigers could be in a different mindset.

Did they save money on the Adam Everett, Gerald Laird, and Matt Treanor deals, or were they spending what they had to spend? Was Edwin Jackson acquired because $3 million is all they have to invest in the rotation?

With $105 million committed to 14 players, and a likely $9-10 million committed to Fernando Rodney, Marcus Thames, Gerald Laird, Edwin Jackson, and Bobby Seay, That leaves about $15-$20 million to cover Justin Verlander*, 4 guys earning the minimum, and an upgrade to the bullpen. Plus I don’t know if Renteria’s $3 million buyout counts against the total.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that as Olney points out, prices are dropping. And for those worried about the Tigers lack of moves in the bullpen, it isn’t a cause for concern yet. It’s still a buyers market with Brian Fuentes, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Juan Cruz available. Fuentes and Cruz are undesirable due to the cost of second round draft picks. But as a group there are 4 arms, 3 of which should be in the Tigers price range, and all of which would be an upgrade.

Now if the calendar flips to February, and the four aforementioned guys are packing bags for other destinations, then I’ll join you in being uneasy about a bullpen made up of last year’s incumbents, Casey Fien, and the draft class of 2008.

It’s kind of anti-climactic at this point, but the Miguel Cabrera deal has officially been announced. The deal is for 7 years and $141 million beyond the 1 year deal he signed for 2008.

As speculated correctly here (I’m so rarely right I feel the need to claim it), $15 million is due in 2009. The Freep has the breakdown of the remaining years which range from $20 to $22 million a year. I’ve updated the Payroll page to reflect this. It is worth noting that the Tigers have $114 million committed to 13 players (including Porcello and a Renteria option) in 2009 and $94 million committed in 2010. This team is built to win for the next 3 years.

There is what the Freep deemed a limited no trade clause. It’s described as the Tigers being able to trade Cabrera to 10 teams without his permission. I’d call that partial instead of limited, but that’s semantics.

In a separate article the Freep detailed that had the deal not been done now, it might not have gotten done at all. Certainly not at the same price anyways. Cabrera wasn’t going to negotiate during the season, and had he waited until next offseason, free agency would have only been one year away.

As for the whether or not it was a good deal, it’s being praised by those who crunch the numbers.

A flurry of link worthy items, plus just being behind in general leads to the mother of all link round-ups:

Injuries – left handed pitcher edition

Bless You Boys picked up a Buster Olney report that scouts were speculating that Dontrelle Willis may be injured. That could certainly be part of his control problems. Then again, Willis has battled increasing control issues the last couple years so it may be a continuation of a trend. But it sounded like Tigers scouts were confident that the problem had been licked. But what if it isn’t?

Assignable cause is always nice when trying to identify shifts in output (I’m an industrial engineer by trade). Usually if you can find the assignable cause and fix it. But in this case fixing it may mean rest & rehab or even surgery if there is an elbow problem.

Big League Stew has some more. Well, not much more but I like BLS and there’s a cool picture.

Things aren’t going well for Clay Rapada either who is experiencing more soreness.

Injury news – right handed pitching edition

Fernando Rodney was examined by the team orthopod and no structural damage was found and he will resume throwing. That’s the good news portion of this update.

Injury news – blogging center fielder subsection

Let’s hope Granderson heals as fast as he gets out of the box for triples. The mending time is estimated to be really quick where he only misses the first week (via John Fuller, his publicist/manager type guy) or it could be a month if Chone Figgins can be used as a comp. While he could probably start swinging the bat right away, it will likely effect his grip strength. And man, I’d imagine hitting in cold weather would be especially painful.

In his stead Edgar Renteria will leadoff and Brandon Inge will manner center field – at least initially. I have a felling there will be some mixing and matching with Ryan Raburn perhaps getting some extra at-bats as well.

Interviews

Speaking of Granderson, The Grandy Report was able to interview him last week. It turns out Granderson’s favorite subject was math. I wonder if he’s a saber?

Also, Dontrelle Willis got together with Ryan Howard and David Wright during a Topps shoot. Willis grabbed the mike and conducted the interviews himself. This interview keeps getting taken down, so catch it while you can.

THE CONTRACT

I think it’s only appropriate that THE TRADE spurred THE CONTRACT. There is little new news about THE CONTRACT except that it is a 7 year extension as I had speculated initially. My guess on how it breaks out is $15 million in 2009 and then $21 million in each of 2010-2015. It hasn’t been officially announced, but it hasn’t been denied. And Cabrera’s Dad seemed to confirm it to a Venezuelan newspaper. (translation via Google)

“We were expecting this contract,” said Cabrera Navas. “There were two very important things for him to accept the deal: first, that there are other Venezuelans, as Magglio (Ordoñez) and Carlos (Guillen), and second, that we have a good chance to win and go to a World Series.”

The story also said that there are incentives for MVPs, All Star Games, and the like.

Mack Avenue Tigers beat me to the punch and rounded up the opinions on the valuation of the deal. The opinions vary greatly. I’m still sticking with my initial feelings that it is a pretty fair valuation for both sides. In terms of Cabrera’s actual value it seems fair. In terms of Cabrera’s perceived value it appears to be favorable for the club.

Leftovers

Finally wrapping this thing up we look to the Marlins who decided to send Cameron Maybin to the minors for more seasoning. Probably a good move and Maybin will probably still be the starting centerfielder by the end of the year. But Jair Jurrjens locked up a spot in the rotation after a strong spring.

And lastly, Brennan Boesch had some bathroom problems today.