Category Archives: 2010 Season

2010 Season, Contracts

Report: Verlander inks 5 year deal

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The Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a 5 year contract worth $80 million according to Larry Lage of the AP. Verlander was at the Tigers Lakeland facility working out earlier today. The deal locks up the ace through the 2014 season and it bests the 5 year $78 million deal that Felix Hernandez received earlier this month.

A long an expensive contract for any player, and pitchers in particular, is a risk. But there are certain players that are worth a gamble. Verlander had 2 years until free agency where if he continues to perform he would have netted a deal well in excess of $100 million. The Tigers secured his first 3 years of free agency at what will hopefully be a bargain.

The Hernandez comparisons are especially germane, and if you like the King Felix signing the Verlander one is just as palatable. Verlander has been at least an $11 million pitcher in each of his 4 years and with his big season in 2009 he has produced $80 million in value for the Tigers. He was likely to make about $8-9 million in 2010 regardless. He guaranteed himself an additional 4 years and $70 million.

While I think that Hernandez should get more because he is 3 years younger and if I had to pick one, I’d pick Hernandez, both are exceptional pitchers with similarly impressive resumes. I don’t want to get into a Felix/Justin debate. They are both studs and a difference of a couple million over 5 years isn’t really a difference at all.

I am concerned about Verlander’s workload the past few seasons, and last year in particular. He didn’t seem to suffer any consequences though and the hope is that JV is one of those freaks. The upside is that the contract expires when Verlander is only 31 meaning that like Cabrera, the Tigers have locked him up for his peak years.

Photo credit:  Hueytaxi on flickr – photo taken February 3rd, 2010

2010 Season

Blank Page Monday

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The forum is yours today. Care to debate the merits of Johnny Damon in a Tigers uniform? Go for it. How about an extension for Verlander? Have at it. Are you going to spring training this year? What games are you targeting when single game tickets go on sale March 6th? If you’re a fantasy baseball player what do you think about Bloomberg Sports new product? Did you know it is NASA week in Michigan? It’s a blank page Monday. Fill it up.

2010 Season

Perusing PECOTA

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Baseball Prospectus released the first run of their 2010 PECOTA numbers this week, which makes for much fun in the stat-centric baseball community. PECOTA differentiates itself from many of the other predictors by finding pools of comparable players to make their predictions. While the numbers are premium content (and can also be found in the printed annual), I will share a few of the items that jumped out at me about the Tigers.

The system puts the Tigers at 78-84 which is 3rd place in the AL Central behind the division leading Twins (83-79) and the second place White Sox (80-82). The Tigers run prevention is pegged at 2nd in the division at 776 runs allowed; the White Sox are first at 751. But an offense full of questions from young and old players alike is expected to be the division’s worst.

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2010 Season, Contracts, Free Agents

Tigers find enough in the cushions for Valverde

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The Tigers today managed to scrounge up $23 million and invested that in Jose Valverde. The deal is reportedly 2 years and $14 million plus a $9 million option for a 3rd year. For a team looking to be more fiscally responsible and acquire cheap young high end talent to build for the future this move makes no sense.

Valverde is a pretty good pitcher. He fans better than a batter an inning with moderate control making him a 3.47 FIP pitcher for his career. He also brings some experience to a very very young bullpen. There might be some value in that. In short, the Tigers are better than they were yesterday. But…

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2010 Season, Contracts

Ramon Santiago signs 2 year deal

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The Tigers announced that they have signed Ramon Santiago to a 2 year contract. Santiago has 5.095 years of service time meaning that the contract secures him through his club control years.

I’m a little surprised to see a 2 year deal for Santiago who is essentially a utility player. Terms weren’t announced, but Santiago made $825,000 last year meaning this deal will probably pay him a little over $1 million each of the next 2 seasons. Santiago is an average-ish defender who showed some surprising power the last 2 years. He was a .5 WAR player last year and a 1 WAR player the year before.

The Tigers avoid arbitration with Santiago and have 13 of their 40 players signed for 2010.

Image credit: DanCox on flickr

2010 Season, Roster Management

Arbitration offers for Lyon, Rodney

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The Tigers decided to offer arbitration to relievers Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney, but not to take the risk with second baseman Placido Polanco. We didn’t really learn too much by these moves that we weren’t already expecting. If nobody were offered it may have signaled that the Tigers were as poor as everyone speculated. If everyone were offered it would either mean the Tigers weren’t really financially restricted or that Scott Sizemore’s injury wouldn’t allow him to be ready. Instead we’re somewhere in the middle.

The good news with Lyon and Rodney is that the Tigers stand to gain high draft picks if either player is signed by another team. If they accept arbitration the Tigers will have a couple relievers on one year deals for about $5 million apiece. However, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t expect either player to accept but he also didn’t rule out signing either player. With Lyon in particular I could see the team willing to sign him to a 2 year deal.

With Polanco it is one of those tough decisions, but one that is right. Polanco was part of the renaissance of baseball in Detroit and was an easy guy to root for. He played hard, never complained, and was remarkably steady. And while he was probably overrated by many fans for his batting average, he was the guy I felt most comfortable with at the plate in a key situation (yes, I know his career .307 BAISP isn’t appreciably different than his overall .303 BA it is still a pretty good clip and the fact that he’d find a way to put the ball in play made me “feel” better).

But for a change the Tigers actually have a position player prospect poised to take over a position of need in Scott Sizemore. He isn’t being rushed or pushed up for a spark or as an injury replacement. Scouts feel he can hit at the big league level now and his minor league numbers show he can transfer his tools to production.

Now the decision to let Polanco go is different than the decision to offer him arbitration. By not offering him arbitration Polanco will not fetch the team additional draft picks. The lack of a compensation pick also makes Polanco much more attractive to potential suitors. So when he ultimately signs a 2-3 year deal with someone, there will be complaints that the Tigers missed out. The complainers though have to realize that Polanco’s market shrinks with a compensation pick attached and that multi-year offer likely wouldn’t be there.

2010 Season, Trade Rumors

Is Edwin Jackson for sale?

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There has been considerable speculation about the Tigers financial state. The payroll will be high, and there are continued questions about revenue potential. Mike Ilitch saw less advertising revenue. Attendance was relatively strong, but the Tigers missed out on any postseason gate receipts despite adding payroll midseason. Now Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi are reporting that Dave Dombrowski is listening to offers on Edwin Jackson.

Jackson will likely command a salary of about $5 million in 2010 as he enters his 2nd of 3 years of arbitration eligibility and so a trade would seemingly be at least a year early. The salary wouldn’t appear to be prohibitive for a player that was 3.5 WAR last year and 1.5 WAR each of the previous 2 years. In other words, Jackson will have surplus value next year even he reverts closer to his 2007-8 numbers than his 2009 campaign. Of course value or not, cash is cash and if the Tigers don’t have the money they don’t have the money regardless of the value.

Aside from money, or perhaps in addition to it, are there are reasons why trading Jackson may be desirable?

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2010 Season, Roster Management

Tigers announce bevy of roster moves

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The Tigers made a handful of roster moves today to prepare for the offseason. They are:

  • Mike Hollimon was outrighted to Toledo
  • Marcus Thames and Matt Treanor have been removed from the roster and are now free agents
  • Jeff Larish and Joel Zumaya have been reinstated from the disabled list
  • Jay Sborz had his contract purchased from Toledo

Thoughts

The Hollimon move isn’t surprising. He very may well still have a role in the organization. He has a 260/361/478 line in his minor league career which is solid for a middle infielder. He’s also 27 and has been injured much of the last 2 seasons meaning that he wasn’t going to get claimed.

The Matt Treanor announcement isn’t surprising either. Treanor will unfortunately finish his Tigers career without a hit but he does have the distinction of catching Rick Porcello’s debut.

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2010 Season, Free Agents, Roster Management

Free Agent Filing Begins

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Now that the World Series is over the 15 day free agent filing period is underway. The period gives teams an “exclusive” negotiating window in which players can talk to other teams, but not talk contract parameters. So we won’t know exactly what will happens with the Tigers quartet* of impending free agents for awhile, except that they will go through the procedure of filing for free agency.

Steve Kornacki of Mlive did some catching up with a few of the possibly future former Tigers and got their thoughts on returning.

Fernando Rodney would like to stay in Detroit but is looking for a 3 to 4 year deal. It’s safe to say that he won’t get a 3 or 4 year deal from anyone (maybe 2 years with a club option for a 3rd) so that doesn’t really clear things up.

Of course the Rodney situation is in some ways tied to Brandon Lyon’s status. Understandably Lyon would like some clarification on what his role would be if he were to sign with Detroit.

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2010 Season, Roster Management

Roster Cutting

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With the end of the 2009 season looming, the Tigers have some roster cutting to do. They currently have 44 protected players between the 40 man roster and disabled lists. They have to get that number down to 40 in the short term and well under 40 eventually to protect minor leaguers.

The Tigers need to reduce their roster to 40 players before the free agent filing period, which is the first 15 days after the end of the World Series). Matt Treanor, Mike Hollimon, Joel Zumaya, and Jeff Larish currently find themselves on the disabled list meaning that 4 of the current 44 players need to be removed any day now.

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2010 Season

Tigers retain 5 coaches, not Van Slyke

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I had been expecting an announcement about the coaching staff, but this wasn’t it . The Tigers invited 5 of their 6 coaches back for the 2010 season, but Andy Van Slyke is pursuing other other options.

In addition to coaching first base and catching the ceremonial first pitches, Van Slyke also had responsibility for the outfielders and baserunning. Mike Rogers looked at the numbers on both of those fronts and found them to be largely inconclusive. The Tigers baserunning hasn’t been good, but they haven’t had a lot of speedsters or 1st to 3rd guys. Their outfield defense has been mostly adequate.

Tom Gage notes that the replacement will most likely come from within the organization and that the early speculation is that roving minor league instructor Gene Roof would get the gig, though staff assignments haven’t been finalized yet.

I’m most concerned that there doesn’t appear to be any organizational traction to alleviate Lloyd McClendon of his duties.

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