So….a few weeks ago I wrote a post charting Verlander’s difficulties and questioning whether he can ever be an ace again. I’m happy to say I was wrong. I’m not sure if he is. But he can be. I would like to point out that I pinpointed his slider as the difference maker, and I want to demonstrate why his slider has been such a big part of his recent string of strong starts (bullpen be damned).

Since giving up 7 ER to the Indians in 5 inning on May 3rd, JV has allowed only 10 ER over 44 2/3 spanning 6 starts. His ERA in that span is 2.01, his WHIP is a microscopic .78, and he’s K’d 52 batters. The BAA is .161 and the OPS against is .465. That is ACE STUFF.

Without analyzing pitch by pitch metrics, it’s hard for me to find the exact data, but I can tell you that the velocity of his slider on a game by game basis has been its highest over the past six games, and pitch value of his slider this season has been at its highest in 5 of his last six starts. By increasing the velocity of his slider and giving up a little break, it has become a ferocious pitch, perhaps because it is more difficult to recognize. Watch it for swings and misses today.

Someone please post the lineup when avail.

Just in time for opening pitch.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Cameron Maybin, CF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. J.D. Martinez, RF

7. Justin Upton, LF

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Yesterday’s game had a little bit of everything – strong start by Pelfrey, clutch hits, good offensive output, and a joke of an outing by a reliever. But the Tigers managed to win the game and have a chance to sweep the White Sox this afternoon. Quintana has been lights out for the White Sox so far this year, this should be a great match-up.

I estimate that JV’s ERA would be half a run better if we had an average bullpen.

Baseball-reference game preview here.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Maybin, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, V DH
5. Martinez, J.D. RF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Upton, LF
8. McCann, C
9. Iglesias, SS

Cabrera is in the lineup. Phew.

Baseball-reference game preview here.

Today’s lineup (numbers off of Chris Sale). I’d swap Kinsler and Maybin, and put Upton 7th when he’s back.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (6-for-27, 2 HR, 5 walks, 5 K’s)
2. Cameron Maybin, CF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (8-for-33, 2 HR, 9 walks, 12 K’s)
4. Victor Martinez, DH (16-for-34, 3 doubles, 4 HR, 2 walks, 5 K’s)
5. J.D. Martinez, RF (6-for-22, 2 doubles, HR, 3 walks, 12 K’s)
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1-for-16, walk, 10 K’s)
7. James McCann, C (2-for-8, 3 K’s)
8. Mike Aviles, LF (5-for-31, HR, 2 walks, 3 K’s)
9. Jose Iglesias, SS (4-for-11, K)

Zimmermann back. We need him.

Interesting lineup.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Cameron Maybin, CF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. J.D. Martinez, RF

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Mike Aviles, 3B

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Holy cow was the bullpen awful yesterday.

Not surprisingly, the Tigers have one of the worst bullpens in the American League. 14th in ERA (4.61), 13th in WHIP (1.39), 13th in BAA (.280), and 13th in OPS (.786). We’re roughly where we were last year…with half of the pen having turned over. One of two things is going to happen:

1) It’s not going to get better, and we’re going to have a revolving door of free agents and AAA pitchers who put up similar numbers.

2) Wilson/Wilson/Lowe will progress to the mean, and we’ll be a little better. Based on history and simple statistical theory, I fully expect this to happen.

Note that the Rangers’ bullpen is worse than the Tigers in every regard, and they are 7 games over .500. And Prince Fielder is below the Mendoza line with an OPS of .560. Every fan always has something to complain about.

Anyway, Pelfrey puts on his pinata costume once again as the Tigers look to take the series.

Curious to see what they do with Greene. I think he’s a better option than Pelfrey, but we may want to give Greene another run in the pen.

Baseball-reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. J.D. Martinez, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Cameron Maybin, CF

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Tigers have won 9 of 11, are 1 game over .500, and 2 back of Cle in the AL central. They won’t keep up this pace, but they could be average enough in an average division. Ausmus’ seat temp has been reduced from scalding to boiling, maybe even just hot at this point in time.

Matt Boyd gets his first start of the season this afternoon. He’s been tearing it up a Toledo this year – In eight starts he’s 1-3 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

A’s pitcher Jesse Hahn has been very good against the Tigers in the past: 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA over 16 innings in two previous starts.

Castellanos’ defense looks to be so much better. Or he’s at least on the ground a ton more. Unfortunately, the stats don’t say so. He’s last among qualifying AL 3B in Fangraphs’ UZR and overall defensive rating. Sigh. I really wasn’t expecting that.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. J.D. Martinez, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Cameron Maybin, CF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Tigers find themselves only 3 games out of first in the crowded AL Central. Should be a fun weekend. Who’s staying up late?

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. 2B Ian Kinsler

2. RF J.D. Martinez

3. 1B Miguel Cabrera

4. DH Victor Martinez

5. 3B Nick Castellanos

6. LF Justin Upton

7. CF Cameron Maybin

8. C James McCann

9. SS Jose Iglesias

A few notes about the Second Inning (games 19-36):

– The Tigers went 6-12, marred by losing 11/12 at one point in time (I think we all remember that).

– The Hitters posted a slash line of .248/.314/.397 for an OPS of .711.

– The Pitchers posted an ERA of 5.25 with 121 Ks and 54 walks in 154 1/3 innings.

– Cabrera’s line during that period: .309/.390/.441 with an OPS of .831 and 5/21 hits were XBH.

– Here is the bullpens’ ERA & WHIP (most of the guys) during that time. ERA is dependent on a number of factors that the pitcher doesn’t control (like RBIs offensively) and FIP is a better measure (can’t get that easily), but with these gaudy figures, it really doesn’t matter. Numbers in parenthesis are their career WHIPs.

• Kyle Ryan: 3.00/1.50 (1.35)
• Drew Verhagen: 5.87/1.67 (1.44)
• Justin Wilson: 9.45/1.80 (1.21)
• Mark Lowe: 15.19/1.88 (1.40) – what’s incredible about Lowe is that of the 7 hits he gave up, 4 of them were HRs.
• Alex Wilson: 7.04/1.56 (1.15)
• Francisco Rodriguez: 1.69/1.31 (1.14)

So you had this amazing phenomenon where, based on WHIP (and likely several other key metrics) EVERY pitcher pitched worse, and mostly significantly worse, than his career average. Heck, you may be hard pressed to find a stretch that bad for Wilson, Wilson, and Lowe. All at a time when the offense was really bad too (the team OPS for the season is .751).

You could interpret this in two ways – 1) Ausmus lost the clubhouse. The team got into a funk and Ausmus couldn’t motivate anyone to get out of it. Or 2) the team played about as poorly in every facet of the game possible.  As far as starters go – Zimmerman and Verlander were solid in the second inning Sanchez, Fulmer, and Pelfrey had ERAs of 5.11/6.00/7.29 during that stretch.

With just slightly better bullpen pitching the Tigers win 2-3 more games during that stretch, and if the bullpen pitches like history says it should, we are probably closer to .500 for the Second Inning and are a few games over .500 right now.

Anyway, Zimmermann gets the rock to try and lead the Tigers to a series win today. Baseball Reference game preview here.

2B Ian Kinsler

RF J.D. Martinez

1B Miguel Cabrera

DH Victor Martinez

3B Nick Castellanos

LF Steven Moya

CF Cameron Maybin

C Jarrod Saltalamachhia

SS Andrew Romine

Smyly on the mound for the Rays this afternoon.

Fulmer brings his winning record and staff pacing 6.52 ERA to the hill.

Should be interesting. I’m lining up my lawn mowing/Skoal time with opening pitch. This hasn’t worked that well for me yet this year.

Baseball Reference game preview here.

Today’s lineup (career numbers vs. Drew Smyly):

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (4-for-10, HR, walk, K)
2. J.D. Martinez, RF (0-for-3, 2 K’s)
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (0-for-3)
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1-for-3, double, K)
6. Justin Upton, LF
7. Cameron Maybin, CF
8. James McCann, C (2-for-2, HR)
9. Jose Iglesias, SS (0-for-3, K)

TB in for a three game set. Sanchez starts tonight. Assuming the kids cooperate, I’m going to take a look at the 2nd inning tomorrow.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. J.D. Martinez, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Cameron Maybin, CF

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS