All posts by Kevin in Dallas

Game 2011.24: Mariners at Tigers

Welcome to a spillover of contest Tuesday.  Since there was not a winner yesterday (really, no one was close),

(yester)Today’s prize is a Tigers History Newspaper courtesy of Anydate.com.  The contest is simple, please guess tonight’s:

– winning team;
– number of Tigers hits;
– number of Mariners errors;
– the number that I’m thinking of right now; and
– Clown Show Ratio.

The winner will be selected on most correct answers, with weight distributed in accordance with how the categories were laid out above (winning team is most important, Clown Show Ratio is least important.  Really, it’s unimportant.  If you don’t know what CSR is, leave it blank, but know that Coleman is working in the definition).  And please visit our friends over at Anydate.com so that they’ll do this again soon.

Erik Bedard takes the mound tonight for Seattle in search of his: first win, first game without a HR allowed, first game without a walk allowed, and first game without at least 3 ER allowed.  Erik Bedard has not been good in 2011.  He was a walk machine against the Tigers last time out, and he’s shouldering a 1.98 WHIP and 7.71 ERA thus far.  He doesn’t throw very hard, he doesn’t have great control and he’s pretty wild.

Seattle missed JV last week, but they get him tonight.  JV is well, JV, and I expect him to dominate Seattle hitters.  Though Milton Bradley (.357 in 14 ABs) and Ichiro (.366 in 15 ABs) have had pretty good success against him.  JV notched his 1,000th K last time out, tying him for 14th on the Tigers all time list with none other than Joe Coleman. In a few games he should catch up to Frank Lary for 13th.  JV has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season, he’s made it into at least the 6th every time out and he’s averaging 7 1/3 innings per game.

Tonight’s Lhineup is:

1. Jackson CF
2. Raburn 2B
3. Ordonez DH
4. Cabrera 1B
5. Peralta SS
6. Boesch LF
7. Inge 3B
8. Avila C
9. Wells RF

Tonight’s fun fact: if Cabrera can score 2 more runs in April, he’ll set the all time Tigers mark for runs in April, passing Travis Fryman (22 in 1997) and Gary Sheffield (22 in 2007).

Game 2011.23: Mariners at Tigers

Welcome to contest Tuesday.  First one ever, hopefully not the last.  Today’s prize is a Tigers History Newspaper courtesy of Anydate.com.  The contest is simple, please guess tonight’s:

– winning pitcher;
– score;
– home run hitters (if any);
– save (if any);
– and Clown Show Ratio.

The winner will be selected on most correct answers, with weight distributed in accordance with how the categories were laid out above (winning pitcher is most important, Clown Show Ratio is least important.  Really, it’s unimportant.  If you don’t know what CSR is, leave it blank, and I’ll wait for Coleman to fill everyone in).  And please visit our friends over at Anydate.com so that they’ll do this again soon.

King Felix is the reigning AL Cy Young winner and he’s pretty darn good.  Even with an uncharacteristic shellacking in Toronto three starts ago in which he gave up 7 runs in 6 innings, he’s posting a 3.38 ERA for 2011 (that’s 1.88 if you remove the Tor game).  He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any other game this season.  But that’s earned runs.  The swiss cheese behind him is allowing an unearned run per game, and I’m certain that the Tigers will have similar opportunities tonight.  Against King Felix, they’ll have to take advantage when they can.

Phil Coke takes the hill for the Tigers today.  PC got hit pretty hard last time out (6 runs, 6 hits, 4 BB in 3 2/3), but 4 of those runs were unearned.  Which means that his two previous salty starts coupled with his 2 1/3 innings out of the pen have left him with great April numbers.  A 1.27 WHIP and 2.75 ERA will certainly earn him better than a 1-3 record in subsequent months.  Coke’s biggest flaw has been the base on balls, as he’s already walked 10 in 17 1/3 as a starter this year.  Curiously, he walks lefties at twice the rate as righties, but that’s likely just a sampling error at this point in the season.  Mariners lead the majors with 90 walks…so keep an eye on this.

Today’s fun fact – the Tigers are 109-62 at home (.637) since the start of the 2009 season.  Only the Yankees are better at home in the AL since then.

Tonight’s not how I would do it lineup is:

1. AJax – CF
2. Will Rhymes – 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez – DH
4. Miguel Cabrera – 1B
5. Brennan Boesch – RF
6. Ryan Raburn – LF
7. Jhonny Peralta – SS
8. Alex Avila – C
9. Brandon Inge – 3B

(This is how I would do it – Jackson, Rayburn, Boesch, Cabrera, Avila, Ordonez, Peralta, Inge, Rhymes.  But at least now we get a difficult L/R match-up at the bottom of the lineup which will certainly perplex Eric Wedge in the 8th inning.)

News and Notes: 4.25.11

– Lee Panas, who runs a great Tigers blog and comments here from time to time, ran some numbers on the low offensive output in the AL thus far this year, and reasons for it.

– Lincecum had some real gems on baseball playoff expansion.  His contention that adding a team or two means that Selig doesn’t “worry about [players] as human beings or players” has a CSR that is off the charts.  Teixeira isn’t much better, introducing the idea of doing it “American Idol” style.  I’m not sure what this means.  Personally, I think it would be great for the game.  An article from Friday on FanGraphs proposed an alternative solution, but ultimately concluded that baseball will add a 1 game playoff  for the two wild-card teams (long post, but a good read).

JV’s WHIP this year is .97, and his K/9 is 8.75.

– An Indians fan and pretty sharp freshman wrote a blog the other day charting payroll correlation to wins.  To conclude, there is a definite correlation, but it is far from 1.

– The week ahead – King Felix v. Coke on Tues, Bedard v. JV on Wed, Pineda v. Penny on Thurs, Scherzer at TBD on Friday.

– Finally, the good folks at www.anydate.com have agreed to give out a Tigers History Newspaper as a way to get their name out.  So what we’ll do is have some sort of contest tomorrow centered on the game.  Check back around 3 hours before opening pitch for the deets.

Game 2011.19: Tigers at Mariners

Well, it’s the rubber match of the Mariners series as the Tigers bring their 1-6 record in games to decide a series to Safeco, before an off day and then a home stand.

We just got through the first inning of the season (18 games), and it wasn’t very good.  Pitching-wise, the Tigers were just awful, posting a 5.02 ERA, worse than every AL team other than Boston (5.58).  Their WHIP of 1.49 is worst in the AL, and they allowed 71 BBs, second worst in the AL.  Our bullpen is 12th in the league with an ERA of 5.47, and the starters are marginally better with an 11th best ERA of 4.81.

Incredibly, our hitting is in the middle of the pack with a .244 BA (8th), .703 OPS (9th) and 16 HR (7th).

With all of that, the boys are only 2 games under .500.  So there should be hope, right?  I expect the bullpen to get better, and Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver look primed to contribute sooner than later.

On the other hand, despite an AL-wide hitting slump, I do not see our bats getting much better unless someone in the farm can step up and contribute.  AJax has been exposed, Inge is Inge, and Maggs’ next XBH will double his 2011 total through 30+ ABs.  That’s right, Maggs is on pace for 270 ABs, and I think he’s being overused now.  Guillen should be an improvement at 2B, but there is still no timetable for his return.  VMart’s 1st trip to the DL is unlikely to be his last, and Peralta is regressing as a hitter.  Unless Raburn can turn into the above average hitter I think he is and we get some more help from below today, .500 baseball is going to be about right for this team.

Erik Bedard goes for the Mariners.  After sitting out all of 2010 recovering from shoulder surgery, Bedard has been hammered in his three 2011 starts to the tune of 13 ER in 13.2 IP and 1.97 WHIP.   Which sounds just like the type of pitching that has shut down the Tigers recently.

Porcello climbs the hill for the Tigers looking to follow-up on a strong start against Oakland last week.  In that effort he only lasted 6 IPs (103 pitches), but allowed just 1 ER on 7 hits and 1 walk.

Fun stat of the day – did you know that Austin Jackson is tied for fourth on the team with 1 HR? That’s one more than Maggs.

Today’s Peralta is protecting Cabrera? lineup:

1. AJax – CF
2. Raburn – 2B
3. Ordonez – DH
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Peralta – SS
6. Boesch – LF
7. Inge – 3B
8. Ghost – RF
9. OMirG I’m starting – C

 

Game 2011.18: Tigers at Mariners

The Tigers look to lock-up a series victory tonight against the Mariners, as Phil Coke takes on Doug Fister.

The not-so-hard throwing Doug Fister takes the mound for the Ms tonight.  Fister is in the majors because he throws a four seamer, a two seamer, a change, a curve and a slider.  Though none of them are particularly effective, when he locates them well he can win a few ball games.  His fastball tops out at 88-89, though that lack of speed certainly had the Tigers fooled for most of last night.  He’s got a career WHIP of 1.29 (good), and a career K/9 of 4.99 (not good).

Coke was nothing short of phenomenal in his last start, allowing 3 hits, 2 walks and 0 ER over 7 IPs against the Athletics.  Couple that with the last 4 2/3 innings of the KC game, and he’s thrown 11 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings.  The over/under is set at 15.  Any takers?  Coke dominates in April, posting a career 2.29 ERA for the month.

In roster news – VMart may be headed to the DL.    Omir Santos was called up as an emergency back-up catcher, and they’ll have to send someone else down today before 1st pitch.  My guess would have been Austin Jackson, but he’s listed in the starting lineup.  I can’t see them sending down a reliever, so either VMart will be placed on the DL, or Don Kelly will have a lonely drive this evening.

Your incredibly suspect top of the order lineup (see if you can determine who I’m rooting for tonight):

1. AJax – CF
2. Rhymes – 2B
3. Don Kelly – RF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Boesch – DH
6. Raburn – LF
7. Peralta – SS
8. Big Bad Al Avila – C
9. Inge – 3B

Game 2011.17: Tigers at Mariners

The Tigers mosey into Seattle tonight after letting a golden opportunity to take their second series go whizzing by their bats, mostly with runners on third and less than two outs.

The Tigers’ offense set a two-game mark for futility over the weekend, failing to capitalize even once in 5 R3L2O situations, and going 0-10 on Saturday with RISP, and 0-10 for Saturday/Sunday.  Yeah, that’s right, 0-10 on Saturday, and 0-0 on Sunday.  Other than the Wells HR, not a single runner reached second on Sunday.

Even with a paltry .240 team BA, the Tigers can scoff at 6 teams below them in the AL, including the Mariners who are hitting a top of the Tigers lineup friendly .214 as a team.

Jason Vargas has sandwiched 2 very good starts around a terrible one in which he gave up 7 earned in 3.1 innings against the Indians.  Remove that game and he’s given up 2 ER in 13.1 IPs with 13 Ks.  He held a capable Toronto lineup to 5 hits and 1 walk over 6 2/3 last time out against Toronto.  The Tigers can not take too much for granted, he did record 21 quality starts last season.

Scherzer’s 4.76 ERA still reflects his game 1 bashing (which he won), but has shrunk considerably over two quality starts.  Though he has allowed 7 hits in each of his last two outings, he’s managed to keep the runs down in those games (1, then 2), and has K’d 16 in 17 innings overall this season.

Fun stats of the day – Tigers pitchers have not allowed a home run in 10 games, most since StL pitchers went 11 games in 2009.  The Tigers’ record is 17 consecutive games back in 1947, aka Leyland’s rookie year.  Mariners lead the majors in bases loaded walks with 5.  That’s 1/2 as many hits as AJax has this year.

Your Magglio Ordonez outfield circus lineup is:

1. AJax – CF
2. Raburn – 2B
3. Ordonez – RF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Martinez –  DH
6. Boesch – LF
7. Peralta – SS
8. Avila – C
9. Inge – 3B

Joel Zumaya to the 60-day DL, maybe forever?

(picture from www.freep.com)

I’m not sure that this is news to anyone, but don’t expect Zumaya to pitch anytime soon, or this season, or perhaps never again.

As unsurprising as this news is, it’s still difficult to swallow because I don’t think any of us will forget the magic he brought in 2006 nor what he meant to that WS run.  RIP, Joel Zumaya right arm.

Game 2011.10: Rangers at Tigers

The smoking hot Rangers bring baseball’s best record into CoPa for a three game set of afternoon games.  The Rangers are 8-1 and lead the majors in Home Runs, Slugging, OPS, oh, and ERA to boot.  They recently took 2 out or 3 from Baltimore, in Baltimore, and the Orioles did not score a run over the last 16 innings.  They’ve been playing pretty well.

Alexi Ogando makes his second career start today.  His first went about as well as it could, as he allowed 2 H, 2 BB and struck out 4 over 6 IPs.  He really only has two pitches, a plus fastball that was in the mid-90s through the 6th last week, and a good slider that he’s not afraid to throw on any count.  What made him so effective as a reliever last year, and in his first start, was good location.  You might see a change-up or two today.

JV goes for the Tigers.  Verlander has dominated the Rangers in his career.  In eight starts, he is 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 54 Ks in 49 1/3 IPs. Did you know that JV has the most wins in the AL since 2006 (74) and is second in Ks (975)?

If you are on the fence about heading out to the game, remember that Lower Baseline Box and Upper Box Infield seats are half-price through Wednesday.

Today’s AJax less lineup feature Don Kelly:

1. Rhymes – 2B
2. Boesch – LF
3. Ordonez – RF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Martinez – DH
6. Kelly – CF
7. Peralta – SS
8. Avila – C
9. Inge – 3B

Seems to me that Maggs is more of a #2 hitter these days, but JL and I disagree on quite a few things.

Game 2011.6: Tigers at Orioles

The boys look to take a series and get to .500 today.

Chris Tillman was pretty darn good in his first outing, throwing 6 innings of no-hit ball against the Rays, but was pulled after 101 pitches.  Tillman is young and promising, but his first two years in the bigs have been disappointing, at best.  In 124 2/3 IPs, all as a starter. Tillman has a career 5.34 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.  In three career starts against the Tigers, Tillman is 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA, averaging just over 6 innings per start.  This includes a 7 inning, 3 hit, 1 ER, 7 K performance in game 160 last year.

Brad Penny, well, he really can’t do any worse.  On the field, that is.  He seems to be doing okay off the field.  Though it would have been nice for that article to come out after his start.  The best part about the article is his wife is planning on having their wedding in “October or November.” Penny sure did his part last week to keep that timeline in play.

Ryan Perry went on the DL today, it’s retroactive to April 5th.  He has an “infected eye.”  Can you really get pink eye from a pillow as discussed in Knocked Up?  Robbie Weinhardt gets the call.

Tonight’s Lineup includes Don Kelly, Ramon Santiago and both Raburn and Boesch.

1. AJax – CF
2. Rhymes – 2B
3. Boesch – LF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Martinez – C
6. Kelly – 3B
7. Raburn – LF
8. Avila – C
9. Santiago – SS

Breaking down JV’s Strikeouts

(Image from Fangraphs – only takes into account game 1 data)

I did not get to watch the game in real time, so I caught up on MLB.tv videos.  They had one of JV’s nine strikeouts, which I have now watched three times.  Let’s review his strikeouts by inning, count & pitch type.

– 1st/3-2/Fastball
– 2nd/2-2/Curve
– 4th/0-2/CU
– 4th/0-2/CU
– 4th/0-2/CU
– 6th/1-2/Change
– 7th/0-2/CH
– 7th/1-2/FA
– 7th/0-2/CH

I can’t remember JV throwing his change-up for strikeouts this much.  Historically, he throws it about 15% of the time overall.  The Ks on change-ups tonight are great news, because I believe JV relies too much on his fastball in high-pressure situations, and I’m hoping that games like tonight will grant him more confidence in his off speed stuff.  For example, against the Yankees, 6 of his Ks were on fastballs, and the 1 each on a curve and change-up.  In fact, of the 16 pitches he threw to Teixeira, 13 of them were fastballs, including the one Tex parked in RF.

JV went to a 3 ball count four times tonight, and threw his fastball on each occasion.  Two went for walks, and he got a K on one in the first.  In game 1 versus the Yankees, it looks like he went to a 3 ball count nine times (the MLB.com data is  not complete), and threw a fastball every time.

Thus, while his 3 ball pitch of choice is still the heater, at least he went to his off speed stuff for the strikeout pitches.  Against the O’s tonight, his strikeout pitches were pretty equally distributed: 2 FA, 4 CU and 3 CH.  Again, I know it’s early, but I’m hoping that this little snippet will allow him to throw his change more often on 3 ball counts.

What do you make of it?