All posts by Kevin in Dallas

Hot Stove Talk, Part 2 (and other stuff)

Catching up on a few notes:

– Looks like Gerald Laird may be bringing the party back to the Big D.

– The Tigers are in talks with the Braves about Martin Prado.  Ian Casselberry did a great write up on why Prado would be a tremendous fit a few weeks ago here.  Prado is coming off of a down here, but in ’07, ’08, and ’09, his OPS+ figures were 121, 117, 119, respectively.  In 2009 he finished 9th in NL MVP voting.  Now, Prado is most attractive as a 2B, but note that he didn’t play any games at 2B last year, and statistically, he’s a better LFer than 2B.  Considering the dearth of fielders at both positions, I think we can find room for him somewhere.

– A few from the web which I don’t think carry much weight are Jose Reyes and Cole Hamels.  Reyes is likely going to see 9 figures in his next contract, and Hamels would require trading away Jacob Turner, and paying Hamels $14M before he demands $20M+ in 2013 as a FA.

– 40 man list is due tonight.  Casey Crosby will be #35, I’m certain.  After that, the Tigers will have to make a decision on Brandon Douglas, Cody Satterwhite, Matt Hoffman, Jay Voss, Tyler Stohr, Ben Guez and my player of the pregame for Game #17 in 2014 – Gustavo Nunez.

Spring Training anyone? (schedule)

Hot Stove Talk, part 1

As we tune up for baseball’s other season, let’s review what the Tigers are working with this year.

– Guillen and his $13M will not be back.  Though Guillen and Maggs seemingly want to play again in 2012.

– Ordonez and his $10M will not be back.  Well, not for more than $5M (I would desperately hope).  The Tigers have made no indication of any intent to resign him.

– Penny and his $3M will not be back.

That clears out $26M.  Good start.

Zumaya and Santiago are also free agents at $1.4M and $1.35M, respectively.  Even a non-2006 Zumaya would have been a welcome addition in the ALCS, but his persistent injury problems will leave him off the Tigers roster.   If he doesn’t get another offer elsewhere, and pitches brilliantly and pain-free in Spring Training, I think the Tigers will find a spot for him, however foolish such a decision may be.  It looks as if the Tigers would like to re-sign Santiago, but it is contingent on what other offers he may get.  Santiago is a superb utility guy and was the only 2B mainstay for the club last year.  But over his career he’s shown that he can be overused, and the Tigers will have to wait and see whether another team is willing to give him a chance as a full time player.

Based on the above, it looks as if the Tigers would have plenty of money to spend in 2012. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.  Verlander’s salary jumps up from $13M to $20M, and the Tigers owe $9M in deferred salary (including $2M to Pudge Rodriguez, and $1.5M to Gary Sheffield…remember him?).  Further, Scherzer, Young, Coke and Kelly are all arb eligible, which means that they’ll make a good deal more this season than they made in 2011.  Conservatively, if each of those guys make $3M next year, that puts payroll at $94M (I’m using Cots) that puts the roster at 14, which means that the Tigers will have 11 players to go.  A lot of these guys are still under their rookie contracts (Boesch, Perry, Avila, Schlereth, Al Al etc.) so they won’t be too expensive, but unless Illitch plans to spend significantly more next year, don’t expect any big off-season splashes.

Awards Talk

There’s gonna be more in the coming days, but JV was named the Players Choice Player of the Year for 2011.  Besides having the most confusing name, this award is the top award bestowed by an all player vote, and produced for the MLB Network during a slow content period.

It’s not the Cy Young or MVP, but it is setting a nice precedent.

In case you missed it, Alex Avila won his first ever Silver Slugger award, while Cabby got edged out by Adrian Gonzalez, despite the fact that Cabby had a higher slugging percentage, more runs, more doubles, more HR, higher BA, higher OPS, more walks, less strikeouts, etc.  Basically, Cabrera had an edge in every category that defines “slugger.”  Gonzalez did have 12 more RBIs, but it helps when you have Jacob Ellsbury and his 119 runs ahead of you.  Some guy posited that maybe the players and coaches (who vote on Silver Slugger awards) didn’t like Cabrera’s offseason activities.  This guy was so outraged that he used a curse word (a no-no on DTW) and some fancy sabermetric stats to show how ridiculous choosing Gonzales over Cabrera really was.

The Tigers came up empty in the gold glove department.

AL Cy Young will be announced Nov 18th, MVP on Nov 22nd.

 

 

Sabathia Opts Out

CC Sabathia opting out of his contract is certainly not a surprise.  The Tigers being mentioned as a suitor is.  Sabathia is one of the best around, but I don’t like giving any pitcher long term contracts for that much.  Here’s a list of the biggest pitching contracts in MLB history – have any of these worked out? (Thank you Cot’s for the research)

– Sabathia – $161M for 7
– Santana $137.5m for 6
– Zito $126M for 7
– Hampton $121M for 8
– Lee $120M for 5 (he’s only 1 year into his deal)
– Kevin Brown $105M for 7
– Zambrano $91.5M for 5

Off the top of my head, only Sabathia performed at the top of the league for multiple years…so as a result he’s asking for more…  I don’t blame him, it’s a free market and a well negotiated contract.  But I certainly hope that the Tigers don’t lock themselves into anything like that.  FYI – Tigers 2010 payroll of $105M was 10th in the league.  Yankees’ was 1st at $202M.

 

2011: Thank You Tigers

(special thanks to Samara from Roar of the Tigers for allowing us to use her image.  Check out her brilliant work here.)

Please add yours…

Thank you Alex Avila for your perseverance.

Thank you Jim Leyland for your class and an abundance of next-morning-talking-material decisions.

Thank you Dave Dombrowski for Delmon Young, Wilson Betemit and Doug Fister.

Thank you Brandon Inge for remaining faithful to your work effort and this team.  I think you may have a few new (old) fans.

Thank you Jose Valverde for keeping things interesting on the field and immediately after the last out.

Thank you Miguel Cabrera for showing us that a kid at heart can be the best player on the field.

Thank you Justin Verlander for your determination and resolve.

Thank you Ramon Santiago for being Ramon Santiago.

Thank you Don Kelly for your ALDS magic.

Thank you Nick D for the Minor League Updates.  Great work.

Thank you Dan Dickerson and Jim Price for being my best friends all summer, even if I do all the listening.

Thank you Tigers for another glorious summer of baseball.  I don’t know what I’d do without you.

Thank you billfer for letting Coleman and I have some fun with DTW, and thank you everyone for stopping by.  Plenty of off-season talk coming up.

Game 2011.Playoffs.10: Rangers at Tigers

The Rangers have out bullpenned, out run, and out fielded the Tigers through 4 games of this series.  But that’s through 4, and this is a 7 game series.  There’s a reason for that.

None of the Tigers losses have been lopsided (tack on runs excluded), and they have had distinct opportunities to win each of those games in the late/extra innings.  They just haven’t had that hero.  But that doesn’t prohibit a hero from stepping up tonight.

Candidate #1: Justin Verlander.  At best, Verlander has been below average this post-season, at worst, he’s been…bad.  Heavy words for the 2011 AL  CY Young Winner (and perhaps MVP).  But I think we can all agree that his postseason 1.38 WHIP and 5.54 ERA is unusual, and unsustainable.  Verlander has twice been victimized by rain shortened starts, but JV would be the last guy to use that as an excuse.  JV was a strong 16-3 following a Tigers loss this season and I’ve got a feeling that he gets to a fast 17-3 tonight.

Candidate #2: Justin Verlander.  This has been the best season by a pitcher in decades, he’s just not going to go out like that, especially not fresh from the shorter fight last time out.

Candidate #3: Alex Avila.  Alex knows this may be his last chance in front of the home crowd.

Here’s my honest prediction.  The Tigers sure win this one walking away.  They have been just a hit or two away from taking each game that they lost, and I think that all of those IOUs get cashed in soon.  Verlander gives the pen the rest they need (in case you missed it, Leyland said that Benoit and Valverde were not avail tonight, and we all know that Leyland doesn’t alter from what’s written on the back of his Marlboro carton) and we get setup for 6 & 7 in Arlington.  We’ll worry about those starting Saturday morning.  The one potential wrench is the rain.  From what I can tell, it’s not currently raining at CoPa, but it could during the game.  If we were to get into another lengthy delay, the Bad Brad may get the call.  On the other side of the field, larger than life Ron Washington said that his bullpen is at “full strength.”

Quick Notes:
– Last night was Valverde’s 2nd 3+ out appearance of the season.  The first was on Monday.
– If the series goes to 7 games and Cabrera gets a hit in each game, he’ll set the all time streak to begin a career in the LCS.

1. Jackson CF
2. Raburn RF
3. Cabrera 1B
4. Martinez DH
5. Young LF
6. Peralta SS
7. Inge 3B
8. Avila C
9. Santiago 2B

L e t’s G o T i g e r s.

Game 2011 Playoffs.8: Rangers at Tigers

Here’s the thing about a walk-off Grand Slam.  It only counts as one win.  One win.  Same as a sacrifice fly, walk, HBP, bloop single, etc.  There’s no momentum in baseball.

In less than 9 hours, 42,000+ screaming, rabid, passionate Detroit Tigers fans are going to erupt when the Tigers charge out of the dugout and take the field.  They are going to cheer every Tiger, and boo every Ranger (well, maybe except for Ron Washington – I love watching that guy).   There’s no momentum in baseball.

I realize that everyone wants to jump on Lamont for not sending Santiago in the top of the 9th, but let’s not forget that this team won 95 games, largely on the shoulders of MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera, and VMart hit a cool .394 behind him with RISP.  I 100% agree with Lamont’s decision there.  Had Santiago been thrown out at home with Miguel Cabrera in the on-deck circle, Lamont would have never been able to walk out into public in Detroit again.

I’d like to mention that the 3-2-3 double play last night turned by Cabrera was gorgeous.  He had to make the swipe tag because it happened so fast that he could not get back to the bag.  That guy is going to earn a Gold Glove next season, and win one in 2013.

If you were to simplify the game into starting pitching, bullpen, and hitting, the Rangers have the Tigers beat in the last two, but the Tigers have the upper hand in starting pitching.  And there is no reason to doubt that Fister/Porcello/Verlander can’t bring home 3 Ws in 3 games.  It’s not a foregone conclusion, but the Tigers will be favored in each of the next 3.  And if the bats can hit at home, that Rangers bullpen may start to get overworked.

The first two games have been incredible matches between two teams who are about as close as they can be, with the Rangers’ bullpen granting the Rangers the upper-hand.  But in all honesty, the Tigers are really just a few swings away from a 2-0 lead.  They have stranded 22 runners on base through two games – and have gone 2-for-19 with runners in scoring position.  A few big hits over the next few nights and this thing looks totally different.  There’s no momentum in baseball.

(I’ll update with lineups later today)

Tonight’s Delmon-less Lineup

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ramon Santiago, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Don Kelly, 3B
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Ryan Raburn, LF
9. Andy Dirks, RF

Game 2011 Playoffs.6: Tigers at Rangers

Since the joint effort with Coleman worked so well on Thursday, we’re sticking with it.  I’m going to do a Rangers preview early, and Coleman will supplement this with the game post later this afternoon.

Previewing the Rangers Lineup:

Ian Kinsler 2B – Though Kinsler hit only .255 this year, he still ended the regular season with an .832 OPS thanks to his 32 HR and 34 doubles.  He’s sure-handed and a threat on the bases.  In fact, Andrus (37) and Kinsler (30) each stole almost as many bases as the Tigers as a team (49).

Elvis Andrus SS – Andrus is an absolute joy to watch in the field.  He gets to balls you wouldn’t think he could, and makes strong accurate throws from all angles.  He’s prone, however, to mental lapses and poor decision making.  He regularly runs into outs and there’s a good chance that he’ll make a lazy throw or take the wrong angle on a ball or two during the series.  He has the ability to be an above-average hitter, but not the discipline or patience.  His .708 OPS was marginally better than AJax’s.

Josh Hamilton CF – What’s so incredible about Hamilton is his passion and effort, despite his history of injuries.  Hamilton gives 110% on everyplay, regularly sacrificing his body, whether in the field or on the base paths.

Michael Young DH – Maybe the most tested human since Job.  He moves from 2B to SS for Soriano, then from SS to 3B for Rodriguez, then from 3B to DH/1B for Beltre, demands a trade & reneges on that position in between, oh, and he hit .338 with an .854 OPS playing every infield position and DH this year.  The guy is the consummate professional.

Adrian Beltre 3B – After posting an .892 OPS with 32 homers during the year, Beltre hit 3 in 4 games against the Rays with an 1.179 OPS.  He’s an absolute stud at 3B and has Rangers fans applauding the unpopular Michael Young shuffle by Jon Daniels last off-season.

Mike Napoli C – Everyone knows about the Beltre FA signing, but this one may have been even better.  Guess who led the Rangers in OPS this season?  Yup, 1.046.  The guy has been crushing the ball over the past month (8 HR and a 1.361 OPS in September) and most around here feel that no one has been more valuable through this playoff run.  Not a great defensive catcher though.

Nelson Cruz RF – Outside of Miguel Cabrera, I don’t know anyone who hits the ball harder in the AL.  His home runs tend to be big and clutch.  He also has a tremendous arm out in right field, not that Lamont considers those things.

David Murphy LF – Murphy is a platoon player who can come up with big hits, but he can also be overused.  On that note, have we overused Santiago at this point in time?

Mitch Moreland 1B – Mitch-a-palooza is a valuable role player who has developed quite a following in the Metroplex.

Rangers Starters:

CJ Wilson – Honestly, I’ve watched him closely as he’s developed from a reliever to closer to starter, and I still can’t believe he’s this good.  He doesn’t have overpowering stuff or nasty movement, but he can hit his spots.  I think where his real growth came was as Robin to Batman Lee last year.  He has reaffirmed over and over again how much he learned from Lee.  He is meticulous in his prep and he sticks to his plan.

Colby Lewis – Crafty vet who learned “the art of pitching” in Japan.  I think we’ll get to Wilson, but Colby will always keep Texas in the game.

Derek Holland – kind of the X-factor for the Rangers pitching staff.  If I recall correctly, he was second in the majors in complete game shutouts with 4, but it also wasn’t until late in the season that he got his ERA under 4.  Around here people watch out for the Derek Holland Blow Up, and it usually happens in the 4th or 5th.  If he can get past those innings, watch out.

Matt Harrison – Harrison is still developing, but I think the hard throwing lefty has the most upside of any Rangers starter.  Look for him to pitch game 4 in Detroit.

Rangers Bullpen:

Alexi Ogando – You may remember Ogando, 3-0 against the Tigers this year while the rest of the staff went 0-6.  He came out of the pen in spring training and was putting up Cy Young type numbers in the first half of the season until the heavy workload set in.  Ron Washington smartly moved him back to the pen a few weeks before the season was over and he responded with 2.2 innings and 1 hit against Tampa.  His stuff is nasty.

Mike Adams and Koji Uehara – I’m lumping these guys together because they were traded for to strengthen the struggling Rangers bullpen in mid-season, and largely have been disappointments. If you’ll recall they started their Rangers career against the Tigers and (I think) were each greeted by Tigers home runs (one was an 8th inning game decider by Boesch…if I’m remembering correctly).

Darren Oliver – He’s past his prime.  We want to see him.

Michael Gonzalez – Journeyman who had a huge 3 pitch strikeout in game 3 of the TB series.

Neftali Feliz – Dynamic closer with a plus fastball and plus curve.  He’s had an organizational spotlight on him since he was 16, and he has not disappointed.  His career whip is .95 and he’s struck out just over 9 per 9.

Game 2011 Playoffs.3: Yankees at Tigers

(see if you can spot the difference between this image and the game 1 image)

The ALCS moves to Detroit tonight for game 3.  Game time temperature should be in the mid-60s, and it should slide down into the 50s throughout the game.  But no rain in sight.  (Mike Napoli just went yard, again, Rangers up 2-1.)

Yesterday’s game was almost too much to take.  We seemed destined to be another anecdote in Yankee’s lore after the Avila slip.  If anyone believes in his stuff it’s Valverde.  Bravo Papa Grande. I know he threw 30+ or something yesterday, but I’m pretty sure that he’s avail tonight if we need him.  I don’t think Benoit will be.

Today’s news is the lineup changes – Maggs slides down to 6, Avila to 8, and Santiago to 2.  Santiago hits CC decently well (.294) and plays better D, so he gets the nod over Raburn. According to Jimmy, Avila has been pressing a bit, so hopefully the 8 hole will help him get something going.

Yankees are sticking with their same game 2 lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Curtis Granderson, CF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B (this caused a bit of a stir in NY)
5. Mark Teixeira, 1B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Jorge Posada, DH
8. Russell Martin, C
9. Brett Gardner, LF

Todd Jones throwing out first pitch tomorrow night…(confusion)

 

 

Game 2011 Playoffs.1: Tigers at Yankees

(if any real artists out there would like to make a real graphic, please let me know.  but the ALDS choice of color didn’t give me much to work with)

They’re here!  The Playoffs are here!  What a welcome guest.  Honestly, I’m not so sure that I’ve recovered yet from the excitement of Wednesday night, perhaps the greatest regular season night in MLB history.  And as incredible as the Wild Card finishes were, Wed night was especially dramatic for us in Detroit and Arlington, as home field advantage hung in the balance.  Detroit has played the best ball in the Majors for over a month now, and while everyone says they were beating up on a weak AL Central, let’s not forget that a big reason why Cle and Chi ended up <.500 was because they lost so many games to the Tigers in the last month.

This marks the 13th playoff appearance for the Tigers, their first division title since Alan Trammell was robbed of the MVP in ’87 and the 6th trip to the playoffs for Ol’ Smokey in 20 years of smoking from the top step.  12 of the 25 players on the roster had their first sip of champagne, and speaking of roster, it includes Penny, Perry, PSantos, Kelly, Dirks and Inge.  Guillen, Pauley and Below, not so much.  I don’t want to inject too much criticism in this joyous post, but am I the only one who has watched Perry struggle with everything other than his tattoo artist this year?

Verlander is a career 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA against the Yankees in 10 starts.  The Yankees are great at working the count, fouling off pitches and drawing walks, and this has led to an average start of 5 2/3 IPs against the Yankees.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but that has to be one of the lowest versus any team for JV.  First pitch strikes tonight will be crucial.

JV is going to have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that features up to six lefties, with three of them recent MVP candidates (not to mention one from the right side).  In my mind, the key will be keeping Jeter off base in front of Granderson/Cano/Teixiera/Rodriguez.  Those guys are going to get a few hits, let’s just make sure that they are not scooting Jeter (9-25, .360 career) around the bases in front of them.  The Yankees 2-5 hitters are a career 12-67 off of JV.

Cabrera simply dominates CC as Miggy has a 1.591 OPS in 16 plate appearances.  Betemit has had success with 3 hits in 5 ABs, and Santiago is 7-24, but everyone else has been pedestrian…at best.

Other notes that I couldn’t shoehorn in above
– Would you hire Terry Francona right now?  I might.
– Fister is the September AL pitcher of the month.  5-0 with a .53 ERA will do that for you.