Game 2017.75: Tigers at Padres

One more of these West Coast debacles, and the boys get to stagger back home. Brad shuffles the lineup around, because, why not?

I like Upton batting 3rd; I won’t comment on Cabrera batting 2nd.

Today’s Lineup:

  1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
  2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
  3. Justin Upton, LF
  4. JD Martinez, RF
  5. Mikie Mahtook, CF
  6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
  7. James McCann
  8. Jose Iglesias, SS
  9. Jordan Zimmermann, P

Pitching: Jordan Zimmermann vs Clayton Richard

Romine benched for violating team policy against having more than one hit in the same game.

33 thoughts on “Game 2017.75: Tigers at Padres”

  1. Coleman: Agree with your no comment on Miggy batting 2nd. When Victor returns he can bat leadoff.

    It’s been Brad’s policy to always “rest” the hottest hitters.

      1. Oddly enough, I think Cabrera in the #2 spot is a good plan. I would be a better one if he was hitting anywhere near career norms.

        Romine has his moments, but don’t believe for a minute that he should batting anywhere but #9.

        1. I don’t mean every day. I just meant today, for the Sunday alternate lineup, when he has been hot this series.

          1. Has Romine been hot? Yeah, good for the series, true (and I grant that this counts for something). I’d been thinking of the .111 with 10 K in 19 PA he’d batted the two weeks prior.

            1. I think the odds of losing an 8th game in a row, after losing 7 in a row, are greater than the odds of flipping a coin heads 8 times in a row, after doing it 7 times in a row, even for a time that is exactly a .500 winning percentage team. Because unlike the coin, players get demoralized by losing streaks, which changes the probabilities.

              1. Probabiities are fascinating, counterintuitive, and often very hard for the layman to get his/her head around (and I fall somewhere below layman status). While it’s tempting to apply “real world” factors like being demoralized, I must warn you that you may not. It is pure mathematics. (Well, pure applied mathematics.) If you wanted to apply demoralization, you would have to turn it into a numerical factor. When are players demoralized by consecutive losses – at what point – and to what degree? Also, if team results of the recent past had any meaningful effect, you would expect more streakiness than there actually is (feedback loop). I suspect that the overall average “run” is somewhere between 2 and 3, and while I don’t want to research this at the moment, if ever, I am quite prepared to believe that something like a 13-game streak:

                1 in 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 /156 (the number of 7 game consecutive series in a 162-game season) = 1 in 52 x 30 MLB teams per season = 0.57

                Happens on average no more often than once every two seasons. Regardless of the jubilation or dejection.

                The 8 game losing streak the Tigers just endured has odds of… hmm, better apply the even odds of losing/winning… happening 24-25 times per season across all teams. I think. (2 to the 8th/156 = 1 in 1.64 divided by 2 = 1 in 0.82 x 30 = 24.6). So it’s not that uncommon, and I think I miscalculated the odds of 7-game streaks before, undoubtedly better than even odds for that.

            2. Just very recently, as in the last series. But even over the last 7 days, not so much, with a middling .641 OPS. Which dwarfs Cabrera’s .492, so I guess my point still stands.

              1. Your point stands, I agree. But Andrew needed a day off after two grueling starts. He’s not an iron man like Cabrera is (cough).

            1. So that’s why he’s so durable (2016 being a rare exception). Now I’m going to picture him as the Tin Man. Maybe he just needs a heart. And some oil.

  2. Miggy batting. 118 on this trip should be batting 9th or 10th even. Romine and Avila the Only sticks. I’d rest them for the day off tomorrow..

  3. Brad made the same mistake in Fulmer’s game. 2 out, runner on 2nd, pitched to #8 hitter and got burned.

    1. I guess you remain a big fan of the IBB to the #8 hitter in the second inning. Even with zero out and the certainty of a sac bunt putting *two* runners in scoring position.

      1. No but with runner on 2nd, 1st base open and TWO OUTS IBB makes sense with the pitcher next unless you think a sacrifice is possible with 2 outs.

        1. Maybe I’m looking at the wrong inning, Tony? My last example refers to Zimmermann v. #8 Szczur, man on 2B (due to passed ball), zero out, pitcher up next. With Fulmer, the argument was not to do with the outs station and a sac bunt, but instead with the inning (second) and the matchup. Pitching around the guy who bats before the pitcher every single time there’s a base open? I don’t see this as good strategy, least of all with a guy like Fulmer on the mound. I think he can get Mr. .181 BA out most of the time, and if he can’t, what about the pitcher who has a not much lower BA? I am not a fan of the IBB most of the time. Maybe you can tell.

    1. One of the big team hits of the season for Mahtook, for sure. I was thinking that Mikie hasn’t really been much of an impact bat – seems to me he’s always leaving runners on – but in fact:

      Batting events that added 13% or greater game-winning odds:
      Cabrera: 267 PA, 6 big hits (1 tied game, 1 gave lead, 1 walk-off)
      Mahtook: 103 PA, 6 big hits (2 tied game, 2 gave lead and won the game)

      Also, I think Mahtook just caught up with Miggy for SLG %.

      1. And in case you were wondering, V-Mart has “racked up” 4 such big hits in 246 PA (2 tied, 2 gave lead, 0 game winners), none later than the 5th inning. That said, he still has the best Late/Close stats of any regular. .831 OPS with 6 BB (and 1 HBP) in 27 PA. Only 1 RBI, though.

  4. Wonder who the Tiger player of the game is? Mudhen Mike.

    Did anyone notice the pen was perfect today?

    Finally we win one.

    1. Yeah, great bullpen. Brad needs to lighten up on Greene and Alex Wilson, wouldn’t you say? Three guys can’t be the whole bullpen all season.

    2. Speaking of finally winning one… correct me if I’m wrong, I’m a klutz with probabilities, but I have calculated that the odds are about even* for any given team losing (or winning) 7 in a row once in a season. 8 in a row, half as likely, 9 in a row, half as likely again, and so on. Unfortunately, being on a losing streak does *not* increase the odds of winning the next game. Take note, gamblers.

      *Slightly less than even, like 128/155, so it would not be unusual for 24 MLB teams a season to have had streaks (either kind) of 7 games or more… let’s see… yes, 23 teams in 2016, I’m buying my theory.

      I’m not going to delve into this, but it appears that the odds are at least slightly *against* Detroit now putting up a 7+ game WINNING streak during 2017.

      1. I think the odds of losing an 8th game in a row, after losing 7 in a row, are greater than the odds of flipping a coin heads 8 times in a row, after doing it 7 times in a row, even for a time that is exactly a .500 winning percentage team. Because unlike the coin, players get demoralized by losing streaks, which changes the probabilities.

  5. Turned the game on in the 9th in time to see Kinsler double..then Miggy move the runner…oops forgot Tigers don’t believe in that…….And Mikie saves the season……atta boy
    7 GAME road trip..
    JD …..1 rbi….7/27
    MIGGY …2 RBI….5/27
    Miggy tells reporters he is playing hurt, so we are supposed to accept this. Gee Miggy thanks for NOTHING!…
    Kinsler +1
    Rondon +1
    Wilson +1
    Mikie ++++++++++10

  6. Saupold (back on the cover of the Rolling WAR) has quietly slipped into the #4 bullpen guy position. A “second line” may be developing at last.

  7. We complain about the offense (among other things), but why are three teams ahead of Detroit in the AL Central? Pitching. Minnesota shows what a difference even two dominant starters – dominant at the same time – can make. What do Cleveland and KC have over the Tigers in that department? Pretty much everyone. Offensively, the only offensive monster that JD and Upton would have to defer to is Miguel Sano of the Twins. KC has no offense to speak of.

    But that’s just stats. Obviously, the other guys have played better as teams. The only stat for that is W-L.

    And yet somehow the Tigers are 16-11 against their own division so far, 10-5 against the better teams. Hmmm.

  8. The Tiger season is essentially over. It is so unlikely that the club can recover that we must start looking toward the future. That gives me a chance to make a butt of myself (once again) and give you my take on what could occur from here out.

    The first consideration is: Are the Tigers for sale, the club, not individual players. Only Chris I knows for sure. I still suspect that they perhaps are not, if for no other reason that the club meant so much to his father. The only reason Mr. I purchased the Red Wings was because the other pizza baron bought the Tigers. If they are for sale (or not) it doesn’t change the rest of the season too much.

    First priority for the Tigers should be to get their financial house in order. The club is in a big financial hole and they must come out of it. That will keep them from signing JD at the end of the year. It would be foolish to keep JD until the end of the season to lose him for a draft choice. So Big Al has to make the best deal he can and let him go by July 31st. It doesn’t matter if the club is to be sold or not, JD must go.

    Beyond that the Tigers have little to offer other clubs. There should be some interest in some of our relief pitchers; AWillie, JWillie and Greene come to mind. I would be careful what we get for any of them since the pen is always a problem.

    Ian Kinsler I would not trade unless another club get’s stupid. He is very inexpensive and perhaps we can come up with someone he can mentor. Ian contributes much more than his bat and glove. But the Tigers have never understood “intangibles”.

    Iggy goes to arbitration this year and we MUST keep him. Machado can not replace him.

    If Miggy were putting up the numbers he has in the past, he would still be hard to trade because of the size and length of his contract. As an organization someone (perhaps Chris himself) has to take charge and DL him for a while and try to figure out what his physical condition really is. No time than the present seems better.

    J-Up is having quite a year and if it continues, he may opt out at the end of the year.

    JV and Zimm may be looked at by other clubs. Trading JV (or Miggy) will probably cause attendance to decline by 20% so care should be exercised. Zimm can go anywhere, if they take his contract.

    Brad should survive the season. The only interim manager that would make sense would be Jim Leyland but I doubt he can be talked into it. For the remainder of the year a new manager with a multi-year contract makes no sense for a couple of reasons. First is the candidate field is small. The biggest reason is that the Tiger organization itself first needs to know where they are going. Frankly, this is the hardest thing to work out. If they are selling the club then they do nothing. Anyone buying the Tigers might just want to name their own GM and manager.

    If they are keeping the Tigers the Illitch family needs to first decide how to proceed. If Big Al is kept as GM, then they can look to see who is available as a manager. A new GM would certainly pick his own manager. If the Tigers are going to be kept and made successful again it may require replacing a large part of the organization. I’m not sure they are ready for that.

  9. begin the 10 game homestand w/JV on the mound giving up 5 straight hits (& 3 runs) before getting an out …probably not the way you’d draw it up on the chalk board

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