Detroit Tigers: 31-26, 1st Place (2 ahead of Cleveland).

This afternoon’s game will be a rubbery affair between Detroit and Tampa Bay who have split the first two of the series, but also between Detroit’s Feast or Famine offense, who put up 10 runs Tuesday but 0 last night.  The indicator is twitching toward the Feast side of the dial, with Max Scherzer on the mound. Max so far this season has gotten run support to the tune of 8+ runs per 9 innings. This would seem to be random luck, but perhaps Max has special powers. I have been unable to verify the rumor that Doug Fister has been following Max around in an attempt to learn his secret.

At any rate, Fister had another great outing last night. Until the Rays finally broke through in the 9th inning, Fister had put together a stretch of 21 consecutive scoreless innings–a stretch in which the Tigers scored a total of 2 runs. Detroit did support him with some good defense, including a great unassisted double-play by the much-maligned Alex Avila. But no real hitting to speak of–or great pitching by Cobb, depending on which side of the coin is facing up–and a couple of failed attempts to manufacture something (a failed SB with a runner on 3rd and 1 out, a failed sac bunt), and the Tigers came up empty.

Today the Tigers face Roberto Hernandez, if that’s really his name. Tiger fans probably best remember Hernandez (in his younger guise as Fausto Carmona) for playing a tune on Gary Sheffield’s noggin.

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Whether the Tigers go Feast or Famine today, or even that rare 4-run game, we will probably know fairly early in the game. For whatever reason (I have no explanation for you), the Tigers don’t seem able to score runs in the last 1/3 of the game.

The average AL team has scored 71 runs so far this season in innings 7-9; the Tigers have only scored 53, just nosing out Seattle (52) for that 14th of 15 spot. Their inning 7-9 OPS (.631) is also 14th ahead of only Cleveland (.615. Maybe that’s why Cleveland is struggling?). Their late-inning slugging really suffers, with a dead-last (by a comfortable margin) Slugging % of only .322

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And I would be remiss if I did not point out that David Spade is throwing out the first pitch before today’s game. Just because.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-Game:  Prince Fielder. Joe Maddon and the Rays will not be shy about walking Cabrera another two times today, or even more if the situation dictates. Prince struck out after both intentional walks last night, but previously had a spree of RBI hits following Cabrera walks. What Prince does today may make the difference in the game.

Today’s Max Run Support Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Kelly, CF

Loon gets his wish and Kelly takes over CF from Garcia

Detroit Tigers: 31-25, 1st Place (2 ahead of Cleveland).

Despite leaving all of 12 runners on base (including failing to score with bases loaded and nobody out), the Tigers offense was in Feast mode against the previously 8-0 Matt Moore, knocking him out after 2 innings on their way to a 10-1 victory. Anibal was again in Ace mode, although he didn’t need it with all the run support. Not that that mattered to Sanchez:  “No matter how many runs we score … I don’t want to allow any runs,” Sanchez said. “If we make a lot of runs, the other team can do it, too, so we have to keep the same game.”

But runs they did score, and the Tigers have now scored 10+ runs a league-leading 8 times (and have given up 10+ only 3).  Perhaps that is why oddsmakers have the Tigers down as favorites to win the World Series. If only they could do something about those 1-run games (6-9).

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Of course the big news in baseball, and for the Tigers, is the brewing story reported by ESPN’s Outside the Lines that as many as 20 MLB players are facing suspensions of up to 100 games for performance-enhancing drug use, including Detroit’s own Jhonny Peralta (the leaked names are listed here).

Peralta’s name originally surfaced in connection with Biogenesis–whose Director Tony Bosch’s cooperation with MLB has set the current scandal in motio–in February. At the time Peralta released this statement: “I have never used performance-enhancing drugs. Period,” Peralta said in a statement released by his attorney, Barry Ross. “Anybody who says otherwise is lying.” Peralta has given a “no comment” in response the the current story.

As well as the scope and solidity of the investigation (the alleged drug provider providing names), the unique aspect here is the rumored threat of the 100-game, 2nd Offense suspension for those involved, using a strange argument that lying about not using performance-enhancing drugs constitutes another PED offense. I suspect that the 100-game suspension threat is being used as a bargaining chip for encouraging cooperation with the investigation (in return for “reduced” penalties).

At any rate, I suspect this will be a long process: there will be insinuations, more leaks, investigators assigned, depositions, suspensions, appeals, testimony, lawsuits, who knows what. There is a good summary of various legal angles the players could take here, just for starters.

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So what does this mean for the Tigers and Peralta? Even if Peralta is found guilty by MLB, I have a hard time imagining he would get the 100-game version suspension, and have a hard time imagining the process working itself out by the end of the season. What is certain is that the scandal will create an unending distraction, which at the very least will include a lot of media attention, and may include Peralta having to meet with investigators or even testify. In addition to having his name on The List, I think it would be naive to not think that there will be assumptions made about Peralta’s turnaround this season, playing almost 200 OPS points higher this season than last, and more than 100 points above his career average. Whether or not Peralta can keep his focus amidst these distractions will be a big story this season.

Either way, I agree with Jason Beck about one of the big issues the story raises–the Tigers don’t have a Plan B at shortstop, either on the team on in the minors.

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Speaking of legal matters, as the Tigers prepare for their upcoming three-game series with Cleveland, Indians closer Chris Perez has narcotics agents investigating a delivery to his home.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Jhonny Peralta. Jhonny tries to keep his focus on the field, and keep up the hitting.

Today’s Lookin’ to Feast Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Garcia, CF

Detroit Tigers: 30-25, 1st Place (1 ahead of Cleveland).

It’s a big week in the D: Detroit take on the tough Tampa Bay Rays (who, while in 4th place, have a better record than the Tigers), then have a 3-game set with the Cleveland Indians.

The Tigers just got back from a 1-4 road trip, in which they scored 20 runs (decent, right, that’s 4 per game), but in which they also had 8 runs in one inning, and 12 in the other 46 (oh…not so good). This may explain why they have a skewed Pythagorean win number (as Stormin’ Norman pointed out, and as we pointed out here after Game 48).

At any rate, the Tigers have trouble “manufacturing” runs, which is not news to the DTW readers–Alex Avila’s bunt DP probably generated as much comment as anything so far this season.  The team is beginning to show its 2012 Feast-Or-Famine form, where they alternate blow-outs with no-show-outs, punctuated by inning 7-9 narcolepsy.

The Tigers are batting a combined .216 through innings 7-9 this year, with a paltry .616 OPS, which is better than all of one team in the AL. The good news is that that one team is the Indians, but this does not exactly bode well for a playoff run. ( A classic example was Sunday’s game against the Orioles: O’Day got through the 8th inning with 4 pitches–and gave up a hit! the whole thing took less than 5 minutes).

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In other news Quintin Berry was claimed by the Royals. I predict he will steal 20 bases against Detroit in his brief time with Kansas City.

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Then there is the “Sponsored Headlines” section of the ESPN previews. I mean, what’s up with that? “Kristen Stewart Leaves Little to the Imagination?” Or “21 Facts About Dogs That Will Make You Blow Your Mind?” I mean, seriously.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Anibal Sanchez. With Moore on the mound for TB and the Tiger bats in full Feast-Or-Famine mode, Anibal has small margin for error.

Today’s Home Cookin’ Lineup:

1. Infante, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Martinez, 1B
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Garcia, CF

30-24, .5 ahead and in first place, winning streak at 1. Torii “300” Hunter is back in the lineup and Rick Porcello throws sinkers, so today’s victory is, of course, assured. The stone glove, Teflon hands, and paper bat of Ramon Santiago will not prevent it! Sorry, Ramon. I’m sure you’ll have a good game.

VERLANDER

JACKSON

SCHERZER

MR. POTATO-HEAD

CABBY

QUINTIN BERRY & FRANCISCO WHO?

TUIPLUNKOSOSOPO

Nothing “heavy” as threatened, but here’s a little statistical potpourri. Well, not even potpourri, really; just a coupla things:

A look at BA v. BABIP. Differential between ’em is the thing to look at.

2013 BA/BABIP* (CAREER BA/BABIP)

Tuiasosopo .333/.415 (.212/.288)
Peralta .328/.403 (.267/.313)
Cabrera .369/.380 (.320/.347)
Hunter .312/.367 (.278/.309)
Jackson .272/.336 (.280/.367)
Pena .307/.323 (.252/.270)
Infante .294/.309 (.276/.307)
Garcia .270/.308 (.298/.365)
Fielder .270/.300 (.287/.322)
Dirks .247/.273 (.282/.314)
Martinez .230/.247 (.300/.313)
Avila .173/.220 (.252/.315)
Kelly .173/.177 (.226/.244)
Santiago .135/.167 (.243/.279)

*League average is .256/.298

PITCHING OPS-AGAINST*

Villareal 1.426
Rondon 1.227
Dotel 1.125
Coke .751
Porcello .738
Reed .733
Verlander .710
Ortega .699
Alburquerque .688
Fister .665
Downs .640
Sanchez .606
Benoit .577
Scherzer .568 (who has a high XHB%!?)
Putkonen .558
Smyly .539
Valverde .529 (his BAA/BABIP-against are the same at .156 – this is weird)

*League average is .735

HITTING: OPS PLATOON SPLITS, RHP/LHP*

Avila .648 R / .132 L (not a typo, and no, this is not BA, but OPS)
Fielder .800 R / 1.025 L
Infante .713 R / .797 L
Peralta .795 R / 1.054 L
Cabrera 1.064 R / 1.364 L
Martinez .616 R / .566 L
Dirks .705 R / .573 L
Jackson .689 R / .758 L
Hunter .798 R / .743 L
Tuiasosopo 1.185 R / .831 L
Pena 1.054 R / .529 L
Kelly .572 R / .706 L (crucial that he gets the start against righties, eh?)
Santiago .432 R / .517 L
Garcia 1.167 R / .600 L

*Team totals are .771 R / .790 L

Today’s “String Beans To Utah” lineups:

DETROIT

Dirks LF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Avila C
Santiago 2B
Garcia CF

BALTIMORE

Oh, the usual, I suppose. Actually, DH Dickerson has taken Wieters’s spot in the lineup, and Snyder is in at C.

Do not come back for the post-game, but instead be vewy vewy quiet. I’m hunting wabbit.

POST-GAME: Orioles 4, Tigers 2. This one slipped away in a most unpleasant manner. Once again, a struggling rookie held the Tigers (mostly) (largely) in check. Kevin Gausman got Cabrera for 2 GIDP and a strikeout. Say what? Miguel Cabrera? Porcello started out looking like the expected groundballs were all going to be line drives instead, but then settled down, and settled down GOOD. He struck out Adam Jones 3 times, carved Mr. Hyper-Gum right up, as a matter of fact. Rick was helped along in his transition by a 2nd-inning great catch in RF by Hunter on J.J. Hardy’s fast-receding deep flyball. The only damage done against Gausman was in the 4th, Fielder’s solo bomb to RCF on the same pitch Fielder had just missed for strike three in his previous AB. But note that just prior to this HR, Miggy had erased Hunter (aboard after a fine bunt for a hit) and himself on a 6-4-3. One run lost. In the 5th, Peralta had made it as far as 3B with one out before Santiago and Garcia turned in failed ABs. Another run lost. Top of the 7th, 1-0 Tigers, Brian Matusz in for the O’s. Prince doubles, Martinez singles, and Jhonny bloops in Fielder to make it 2-0 Detroit. Here’s where it starts to get ugly. A horrible sac bunt “attempt” by Avila resulted in a 2-5-3 DP. Ramon’s noble sac fly attempt came two innings late and was unable to score Peralta… from 2B… with 2 out. Shall we say the total of runs lost is up to 3 now? Meanwhile, Porcello was obviously out of gas to begin with when he came out for the 7th and immediately served up a towering RF home run for Chris Davis that made it 2-1. Phil C-uh-oh-ke came on with none out and runners at the corners. The good news is that he got out of a tough 1st and 2nd, one out jam. The bad news is that two runs charged to Porcello scored first. 3-2 Orioles, with what would prove to be the winning run scoring on a clutch knock up the middle by Nate McLouth. How many GIDP today for Detroit? 12? Hunter added one more in the 8th. Downs came on for the 8th and would have had a fine inning, the Davis clever beat-the-shift double notwithstanding, but for a slight technicality. His mistake – no Tigers bullpen appearance is complete without one – was the Casilla RBI double, which may have been misplayed to some extent by Dirks in LF. 4-2 Baltimore. Ortega came in replacing Downs and walked #9 hitter Chris Snyder on 4 pitches before escaping. Last chance, 3-4-5 due up. Cabrera singled, too little too late. The rest went quietly.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Nate McLouth, Chris Davis
HONORABLE MENTION: Kevin Gausman, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter
NOT SO GOOD: Adam Jones, Jim Leyland

29-24, still in first place by .5, losing streak at 4.

Tigers sapping your strength these days? How’d you like to be an Indians fan right about now? Looks like both teams are trying to stay out of first place. “Go ahead.” “No, after you.” “Please, I insist.” “No, I really couldn’t.” “Age before beauty.” “Ha ha. Seriously, I’ll hold the door for you.”

Justin Verlander will take the mound this afternoon and will presumably do what he has traditionally been so good at. Shutdown performance to stop the skid, stop the bleeding. Someone might want to let the hitters know that innings beyond the 6th are not a post-game light workout, but actually count toward game results and overall statistics.

I’ll be back with a bit of a mundane statistical rundown and save the heavy stuff for tomorrow’s post. Feel free to beat me to the punch with any little statistical tidbits you may care to offer… And here’s that minor statistical time capsule for you:

HITTING:

AVG / OBP / SLG / RBI v AVG OPP%*

.372 Cabrera .446 / .670 / 177%
.326 Peralta .375 / .474 / 110%
.315 Tuiasosopo .448 / .463 / 121%
.312 Hunter .361 / .426 / 100%
.307 Pena .329 / .427 / 86%
.291 Infante .330 / .402 / 73%
.272 Jackson .333 / .371 / 75%
.271 Fielder .393 / .472 / 131%
.265 Garcia .286 / .500 / 164%
.247 Dirks .305 / .377 / 82%
.228 Martinez .273 / .305 / 85%
.176 Kelly .299 / .311 / 82%
.172 Avila .267 / .281 / 58%
.135 Santiago .220 / .243 / 27%

* A bit crude; ignore minor differences due to rounding

PITCHING:

BAA (LHB/RHB) / WHIP / ERA / K-PA% / IP

.156 Valverde (.214/.059) / 0.87 / 3.55 / 22% / 13
.187 Scherzer (.189/.184) / 0.89 / 3.42 / 31% / 76
.193 Benoit (.188/.200) / 1.00 / 1.88 / 32% / 24
.198 Downs* (.194/.200) / 0.99 / 2.82 / 28% / 22
.200 Smyly* (.106/.260) / 1.01 / 2.20 / 26% / 33
.211 Putkonen (.167/.231) / 1.50 / 1.69 / 25% / 5
.233 Ortega (.238/.227) / 1.32 / 3.97 / 20% / 11
.233 Sanchez (.266/.203) / 1.13 / 2.79 / 31% / 71
.241 Alburquerque (.296/.185) / 1.81 / 3.14 / 38% / 14
.261 Verlander (.259/.263) / 1.36 / 3.68 / 29% / 66
.267 Reed (.333/.222) / 1.00 / 2.25 / 7% / 4
.269 Coke* (.150/.344) / 1.30 / 6.46 / 23% / 15
.270 Fister (.222/.312) / 1.21 / 3.28 / 21% / 68
.275 Porcello (.276/.274) / 1.27 / 5.29 / 19% / 51
.417 Dotel (.273/.538)/ 3.00 / 13.50 / 14% / 4
.444 Villareal (.714/.273) / 3.69 / 20.77 / 21% / 4
.455 Rondon (.500/.400) / 3.00 / 11.57 / 7% / 2

* LHP, of course

Today’s “Maybe If We Distract Them With Oranges and Grape Jelly” lineups:

DETROIT

Infante 2B
Dirks RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Avila C
Tuiasosopo LF
Garcia CF

BALTIMORE

McLouth LF
Machado 3B
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Davis 1B
Wieters C
Hardy SS
Dickerson DH
Flaherty 2B

Stay tuned or come back for the post-game.

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Orioles 3. Wow! A blowout has rarely been more welcome. The wheels started to come off for Jason Hammel by the 2nd – no real command – when Tuiasosopo scored Martinez from 3B with 2 out after an Avila GIDP with real buzzkill potential. Verlander was good for his 7 innings but not dominant, alternately very sharp and very hittable, especially when he was serving it on a tee to J.J. Hardy (solo shots to LF in the 3rd and the 5th; the first one tied it at 1-1, while the second was more of a consolation prize). The Tigers 4th was just too sweet. 11 men came to the plate and ran the score to 9-1 before it was over. It started with Hammel allowing a HR to V-Mart (RF)… then Peralta (LF)… then Avila (LCF on a nice easy swing). Before Tuiasosopo could make it four in a row, he was drilled by Hammel’s first pitch, and Hammel was tossed without delay (but not without argument). Clearly, Hammel didn’t mean to hit him, but he took that chance with the high and inside after allowing three long balls, and deserved what he got. I was sorry to see him go, because I wanted more HRs. The O’s hurried to ready reliever T.J. McFarland – and the show went on! After Infante had doubled in Tuiasosopo (miraculously scoring from 2B for once!) to make it 5-1, a Dirks walk loaded the bases for Cabrera. I’m thinking no way, don’t hope for too much, they’ll probably walk him in eventually. The count went to 3-2 (still none out, by the way – was this a dream?). But evidently the Showalter/McFarland plan was “don’t give in, try and get him somehow,” and Miggy hit his 200th Tigers HR to LF for the grand salami. 9-1 Tigers. The 4th-5th innings (not to mention 6th) were not easy ones for JV, and the Orioles got to within 9-3 before Fielder ended the scoring by absolutely muscling a pitch from McFarland out the park to CF, on an improbable and atypical (for Prince) sort of swing. Smyly had an easy 8th but a trickier 9th, putting 2 on with none out after losing a 12-pitch battle with Hardy for the walk. It all ended happily when Nate McLouth looked at the last strike in a 3-pitch AB.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander
HONORABLE MENTION: J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante, Matt Tuiasosopo, Drew Smyly, Troy Patton
NOT SO GOOD: Jason Hammel, T.J. McFarland