39-42, 3rd place, 4.5 games back.

Happy Independence Day everyone.

The Twins are now 4-0 at Comerica this year.

In a season which began with sky high expectations, the Tigers arrive at the midway point 3 games under .500 with little reason to believe that the second 81 will be much better. Last night’s game was a microcosm of the season. Two Santiago errors led to 5 unearned runs, and Brennan Boesch’s poor play in the 7th led to another. Though the play was ruled a 2B, most other regular OFers make that play. The Bullpen’s walks (5) nearly matched its IPs (6.1), and the Tigers again failed to produce with the bases loaded, lowering their season average to .219  with a .531 OPS. (Contrast that to batting .294 with a .797 OPS with RISP for the season). Both Trevor Plouffe and Josh Willingham are having better offensive seasons than Prince Fielder.

To be honest, the loss was embarrassing. Dan Dickerson and Jim Price raised several concerns after the radio broadcast and chided the organization for the guys’ inability to manufacture runs and play defense, and questioned whether the Tigers can get back to .500. Price inferred that Ramon is being overplayed at 2B simply because the Tigers don’t have any other options.

Another loss today would be devastating.

But fortunately, Justin Verlander climbs the hill.

The Tigers simply need to start winning.

Now.

Lineups Later (or please post if you get the chance, headed to a BBQ, as I hope you are).

39-41, 3rd place 3.5 games back.

The Tigers are now 0-8 in get back to .500 games since mid-May. Hopefully they’ll have an opportunity to break that streak tomorrow.

A sore hamstring has pushed Scherzer back to Sunday (and gives JV a leg up on the K king race), so Duane Below gets his first start of the season today. Below hasn’t pitched more than 2 2/3 since April, so Jimmy doesn’t expect to let Below go more than 4 today. Drew Smyly will be watching intently…

A few notes:

– Matt Young down (was he still up?) reliever Darin Downs up. Young struck out 9 times and doubled in his other plate appearance. Downs put up some solid numbers in Toledo- 29.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 33 Ks, 1.13 WHIP. No word on whether he can play 2B.
– Fielder’s error in the 8th inning against the Rangers last Wed has been changed to a single; presumably to boost the Rangers bullpen ERA. Funny how other teams do that for their pitching staff.

Tonight’s Lineup Features a Flash Clown Show Flood Warning:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Raburn, 2B
8. Boesch, RF
9. Santiago, SS

39-40, 3rd place, 3 games back.

Let’s talk about the lineup for a second. I really feel that the Berry/Jackson swap is gaining momentum, since I now know of 3 people on the bandwagon (me, Coleman, and Sean). Jason Beck even chimed in, though he thinks AJax should stay at the top. Let’s dig a little deeper.

Beck raised the point that Jackson’s doubles rate makes it likely that a double + bunt puts one one at third with Cabby/Fielder coming up. My contention is that if Berry gets on 1st, we have a much better chance of bringing him home with AJax behind him (due to Berry’s ability to get to 2nd on his own, + the XB power of Jackson, Cabrera & Fielder).

But, the other point to consider is Jackson’s current .404 OBP (also raised by Beck). Now, Berry’s is currently close enough (.385) that I still think it makes sense. But if their OBPs diverge, then Jackson is likely a better choice. In the long run, I see Jackson moving down the order (a la Granderson/Cano/Sizemore).

Last night’s game saw an ordinary Smyly (actually, he was fantastic for 4 innings, and terrible for 1) followed by a superb bullpen. While the Tigers are addressing the 5th spot, the bullpen looks to be set. 4 IP, 2 H and 6 Ks last night. I wonder if Leyland is considering going with Villarreal and Coke as his 7th innning guys in lieu of Dotel. After a great April, Dotel was lit up in May and June to the tune of a 6.32 ERA. Villarreal led the bullpen with 16 innings in June posting a .94 WHIP and 22Ks.

The Tigers get Liam Hendriks tonight, a guy who has yet to win in 12 ML starts. It’s hard to believe that the Twins don’t have a better option than a guy with a 6.82 ERA this year (6.55 career) and a 1.61 career WHIP (1.67 this year). Though the Tigers have been known to turn unknowns into Cy-knowns. Hendriks does have 2 QS this year, one was a ND against Texas back in April, and the other was his last time out against the Sox.

This will be the Tigers’ 8th shot at getting back to .500 since May 15th…

A few notes:

– Congrats to Fielder (starter), JV (in the running to start) and Cabby for their all star selections. Jackson was left of the vote-in list, but he’s got to be next on the list in the event that an outfielder gets injured.
– I saw Leyland’s press conference last night (UVerse offers FSD as part of its regular sports package) and he mentioned that Villareal really loses arm strength after an inning, especially the next night. I’m okay with that.
– Ryan Raburn hit .321 with an .809 OPS in June. Boesch hit .220 with a .576 OPS. Which explains the order below, despite a RH starter.
– Dontrelle Willis announced his retirement today.

Tonight’s Back to .500 Lineup Is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Raburn, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

Detroit Tigers, 38-40, 4 games behind Chicago.

Is it time to move Austin Jackson back in the lineup?

AJax continues to impress, still leading the Tigers in batting average (.326), on base percentage (.408) and OPS (.945), and only a few points behind Cabrera in slugging percentage (.537 to .541).

With runners in scoring position, the big bat in the Tiger lineup is not Miguel Cabrera, and not Prince Fielder, but Austin Jackson, who is hitting .372 with an OPS of 1.212 with RISP, with 3 HR and 29 RBI.  Cabrera is at a healthy .368/.966, also with 3 HR and 41 RBI–but he has had the advantage of twice as many plate appearances with RISP as Jackson has had (103 vs 56) because of Jackson’s spot in the lineup.

Jackson came up big again last night with 2 out and 2 on, and put the game away with a rare multi-run home run against Pine Tar Peralta.

The win last night means that the Tigers still have a chance to hit the halfway point of the season above .500, but they will have to win today to do it.

That task will fall to Drew Smyly, who after a blistering start, has had a string of rather ordinary outings.  There was nothing ordinary about the last start of his opponent, Alex Cobb.  In what coach Joe Maddon called a “heroic” performance, Cobb pitched a complete game against the Royals–an 8-run, 13-hit complete game. Let’s hope there is more of that heroism this afternoon.

Stat of the Day: Over his last 2 starts Rick Porcello has an ERA of 0.69, and a WHIP of an even 1.000.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Raburn, Kelly, and Santiago, who between them will find some way of getting a runner or two into scoring position for Austin Jackson

Today’s Pin-The-Tail-On-The-Don-Kelly Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Ryan Raburn 2B
8. Don Kelly RF
9. Ramon Santiago SS