Game 2012.104: Tigers at Red Sox

Detroit Tigers, 54-49, 2nd place, 1.5 back.

With the trade deadline past and the Tigers standing pat, perhaps it is time once more to look at the Detroit DH situation.  The Tigers still rank 13th of 14 teams in DH performance, which is exactly where they stood when we looked at this a couple of months ago.  Tiger DHs have combined for a .248 average and a measly .646 OPS, underwhelmed only by Seattle (.600).  To put that in perspective, Brandon Inge currently has a .664 OPS with Oakland. In other words, the Tigers would be an improved team with Inge as their DH.

In addition, the 5th spot in the batting order is also 13th best in the AL, tied with Texas (how did THAT happen?), better than only KC, with a .254 average and .670 OPS.  Not coincidentally, the DH and 5th spot in the order are the same guy (who may also be the worst LF in the league, but we’ll leave that now that he is full-time DH), Delmon Young.  Somehow, batting behind Jackson, Cabrera, and Fielder, Young has only managed 44 RBI, and has the worst RBI production of any DH.

Last night’s game featured a perfect microcosm of the problem with the 5th spot in the Tiger lineup.  In the 3rd inning with one out and Cabrera and Jackson on 1st and 2nd, Boston pitched around Prince Fielder, and Young obliged by hitting into an inning-ending double play.

So what is the solution? I have a feeling Detroit may have been playing Waiting For V-Mart to solve the problem.  But it now looks like that is not going to happen.

Here is one suggestion.  When Dirks finishes his rehab (he hit a home run today for Toledo by the way), someone needs to go.  I think most likely (in order) is Don Kelly, Quintin Berry, or Ryan Raburn (Raburn benefitting from Too Many Left-Handers).  How about instead dumping Young and bringing back Dirks as the DH?

It may seem a waste of the best corner outfield glove on the team, but it would help protect his sore achilles.  It would leave the team short one more right-handed bat, but Dirks hits left-handers pretty well anyway (.799 career OPS vs .771 against RHP), at any rate much better than Young has been.

Another option of course is still Soriano, who the Cubs are keeping as of the deadline, but should clear waivers for an August deal.

Stat of the Day: Detroit has the best stolen base success rate in the AL (40-of-50, 80%)–they also have the fewest attempts in the league.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Justin Verlander.  With the offense still struggling, it’s time for Justin to come up with one of his classic Justin games.

Today’s Un-Traded Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Quintin Berry LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Brennan Boesch RF
  7. Alex Avila C
  8. Jhonny Peralta SS
  9. Omar Infante 2B

Game 2012.103: Tigers at Red Sox

Detroit Tigers, 54-48, 2nd place, 1.5 back.

The Tigers, who were a Peralta away from being swept by the Blue Jays, will stay East and try the Red Sox for a 3-game set that ends Wednesday night on ESPN.

Even though the Tigers have started strong in the 2nd half (10-6), they have still been a bit of an offensive jugger-not.  They are batting .257 as a team since the break (.269 before), with a bit less power (.400 SLG vs .420 first half).

Maybe Fenway will perk them up:  Detroit hit .296 in its first 4-game series there, smashed 6 home runs, and scored 18.

If the suddenly-consistent Max Scherzer has another outing like his last, they may not need much offense.  Scherzer now is 5-1, 2.54 over his last 7 starts, with 54 Ks and only 14 walks, although he has given up a home run in 4 consecutive starts.

Stat of the Day: Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn are batting a combined .000 at Fenway in 2012. The bar is low for Infante.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Jhonny Peralta.  The H-Factor already has 2 home runs at Fenway this season.  Can he do it 2 games in a row?

Today’s Leftist Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Quintin Berry LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Brennan Boesch RF
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Alex Avila C
  9. Omar Infante 2B

Game 2012.102: Tigers at Blue Jays

53-48, 2nd place, 2.5 games back.

Keeping it short and sweet for the W…

– Sanchez threw only 4 balls in the first 3 innings yesterday.

– White Sox continue to beat up on Texas (5-0 vs. them this year), as they won their 5th straight yesterday, and they acquired Francisco Liriano from the Twins.

Today’s It’s Okay to Bat Rayburn Once Per Week Against Lefty’s Though 6th is Still Too High Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Rayburn, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Boesch, RF
9. Laird, C

Game 2012.101: Tigers at Blue Jays

53-47, 2nd place, 1.5 games back.

Well, that game last night sucked. The Tigers were never really in it, and have now fallen so far out of first place, that it will take at least 2 games to climb back into the top spot.

Opposing Anibal Sanchez is the confusingly double last named Henderson Alvarez.

Sorry there’s not more, start time really snuck up on me.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

Game 2012.100: Tigers at Blue Jays

53-46, 2nd place, .5 games back.

Well, the 7th inning of last night was a swift kick somewhere painful. Once the Tigers went up 3-1 and we got to the 7th, I think that most of us felt safe that the win was in the bag. Then Verlander had a very un-Verlander like inning, where he gave up back to back HRs (on two pitches), and four straight singles to give Cle a 5-3 lead. That was only the 4th time in Verlander’s last 52 starts that he has given up 5 or more ER.

Despite 2 bad starts sandwiched in-between 3 fantastic ones, the Tigers look for their 6th straight win in a Porcello start. Ricky P has dominated the East this year, posting a 1.35 ERA over 20 innings in 3 starts.

I know we’ve been talking a lot about the OF situation, but even with Dirks coming to crowd Leyland’s options, the Tigers are still searching for a RH bat, as Morosi tweeted today that they are looking into Mets OFer Scott Hairston. Could Raburn be headed out of town? Dirks begins his rehab in Toledo on Sunday.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

Game 2012.99: Indians at Tigers

Detroit Tigers, 53-45, 1st place, tied.

Where did Mysterious Max go? Max Scherzer is looking downright consistent these days, and he racked up a W in his 4th consecutive decision. He held the Indians to 3 hits and struck out too many (8), and now has 35 Ks in his last 32 innings.

Quintin Berry had a big night at the plate, going 3-for-4 with a walk, and knocking in 2.  Quintin credits his hitting ability to…bunting practice.  

Berry’s continued success gives the Tigers a very interesting problem in the outfield.  With Dirks finally on his rehab path, there will be a body too many on the Outfield section of the roster.  If it seems obvious Raburn must go, remember that Berry, Boesch, Dirks, and Kelly are all lefties.  Considering that Leyland loves the RH/LH platoon, there is a good chance that we will be gnashing our teeth over Raburn for a while.

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Tonight Detroit has a chance to win its 3rd consecutive post-break series.  A very good chance, since Justin Verlander takes the mound.  Also a very good chance for another too-many-strikeouts night.  That is if they play–looking like a good possibility of at least a delay tonight.

Meanwhile, in Indian news, the Player Previously Known As Fausto Carmona begins his career as Roberto Hernandez with a rehab assignment (“rehab” for identity fraud?) against the West Michigan Whitecaps.

Stat of the Day: Since the break, Detroit starters are 8-2, 3.46 ERA, with a 1.077 WHIP

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Joaquin Benoit.  He may not be needed with Verlander on the mound, but he’ll be in the bullpen enjoying his birthday.

Today’s Infantiago Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Quintin Berry LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Brennan Boesch RF
  7. Alex Avila C
  8. Ramon Santiago SS
  9. Omar Infante 2B

Game 2012.98: Indians at Tigers

Detroit Tigers, 52-45, 1st place, tied.

For whatever reason, the Tigers have just matched up badly with Cleveland so far this season, especially against Ubaldo Jimenez (2-0, 2.84 vs Detroit), who is beginning to look like this season’s Carl Pavano. They didn’t seem to be overly-aggressive (Jimenez and the strike zone are not best friends), they got plenty of base runners, but, other than Cabrera’s 2-run shot (could he be hitting any better right now?) just couldn’t put anything together.

Perhaps they will fare better tonight against Dearborn native Derek Lowe.  Lowe got bombed by the Orioles last out, giving up 9 runs in only 3 innings. On the other hand, Lowe has been tough on the two Tigers he has significant appearances against:  Cabrera is a mere .192 in 28 PA, Fielder .240 in 30 PAs, without a single extra base hit.  Perhaps the big hits will come from the 2nd half of the order (Young, 4-for-8, Peralta 3-for-6, Boesch 2-for-3).

The Tigers look for another strong performance from Max “Too Many Strikeouts” Scherzer.  Scherzer was brilliant last out against the Angels (1 run, 9 Ks), but doesn’t have the best history against Cleveland, especially at Progressive (0-3, 7.48).  Guy to look out for:  Shin-Soo Choo, who has scorched Scherzer (10-for-17, 1.608 OPS).

Stat of the Day: Fister’s error last night was the 14th by Tiger pitchers, which leads the major leagues. (Cleveland pitchers have only 3).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Brennan Boesch.  Just a hunch.

Today’s Let’s-Try-This-Again Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Quintin Berry LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Brennan Boesch RF
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Alex Avila C
  9. Omar Infante 2B

Game 2012.97: Tigers at Indians

Detroit Tigers, 52-44, 1st place, up 1 game.

Game 1 of the new Tiger lineup starts tonight. Omar Infante rejoins the Tigers, as they look to continue their 5 day win streak and command of their Central division foes (20-14 in the division).

Tonight Doug “2nd Half” Fister goes for his 3rd straight strong outing, against Ubaldo “Human Trade Deadline Warning Label” Jimenez.

Infante is in the lineup tonight, despite the right-hander on the mound.  Which is either the Leyland thing where the new guy starts right away, or means there won’t be any more platooning at 2nd.

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Kevin’s trade thread is here.

I like the trade too, and the Infante part of the trade I had been expecting. An ex-Tiger, a Marlin, a Venezuelan, and a 2nd-baseman who can hit.  What’s not to like?

The Anibal Sanchez end of the trade is more interesting.  Trading for a rental always has its downside (Sanchez is a free agent at the end of the year).  But there is all the reason to believe that the Tigers can keep Sanchez if they want him:  he should feel comfortable amongst his fellow Venezuelans (Miguel Cabrera is from the same home town, Maracay), and his agent is Scott Boras, who seems to work better with the Tigers than any team in baseball.

There are also a couple of intriguing things in the Sanchez stat line for this season.  In addition to his excellent 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (look out Leyland–too many strikeouts!), his ground ball to fly ball ratio has shifted dramatically this season toward the ground ball, a 1.43 vs career 1.21. This on a team with a much worse left-side of the infield than the Tigers, which may explain in part why his performance against RHB has taken a dive this season (2.88 BAA vs career 2.55 BAA).

Which brings up another concern about the Sanchez part of the trade.  The Tigers are now left with a pure right-handed rotation, which is a big vulnerability (think facing the Yankees in Yankee stadium).  I feel a bit better after looking at Sanchez’ splits.  Over his career he actually is as tough on lefties as on righties (career .253 BAA vs career .255 BAA), and this year actually much tougher (.229 BAA vs .288 BAA).

Sanchez is scheduled to make his Tiger debut against Toronto saturday.

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To make room for Omar Infante, Detroit has shipped Danny Worth back to Toledo.  No tears were shed, nor did Danny curse his fate: “In honor of getting optioned down for the 11th time (I think?) of my career, I shall buy a sweet ass electric guitar.”

There are more moves to come. Andy Dirks continues his rehab assignment at Toledo, and Al Alburquerque begins his at Lakeland.

Stat of the Day: This one is for you Anibal:  meet your new 3rd baseman.  Hanley Ramirez Runs From Fielding Value: -10 runs.  Miguel Cabrera: -1.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Omar Infante.  Welcome back to the D.

Today’s Infantastic Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Quintin Berry LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Brennan Boesch RF
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Alex Avila C
  9. Omar Infante 2B

Sanchez and Infante for Turner (Updated)

Let’s move the thread here. I’ll get as many stats/details out as I can later tonight.

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I like the deal, a lot.

Losing Turner is not a minor loss. Here’s a guy that threw 99 in high school and has been the organization’s top prospect for each of the last few years (though Castellanos has probably overtaken him by now). Keith Law thinks that it’s a great deal for Miami. Dombrowski cited the major league abilities of Crosby and Smyly as factors in letting Turner go.

Now if you’ll recall, the last time the Tigers gave up a top prospect was in the late 2007 trade for Cabrera where they swapped two former #1 picks – Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. Quick, where are Miller and Maybin playing now? Here’s Baseball America’s analysis.

Prospects are just that – prospects. Sure, some will pan out, but you have to have numbers for that to happen (see Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, etc.). The Tigers simply haven’t been able to do that, so DDs strategy has been to buy and trade. And it’s worked out pretty well. Even if Turner goes on to a stellar career, this was a calculated risk which had to be taken.  Our rotation and 2B spot are immediately better, and likely markedly so.

There’s an argument that Detroit’s lack of organizational depth results in rushed rookies, but we all know that we are in a win-now mode, and this trade screams now. Fangraphs projects that this is a 4 win swing for the Tigers. That’s a lot of wins.

An interesting side note to the player swap, is that for the first time in MLB history, teams have exchanged draft picks. MLB teams can’t trade regular draft picks, but compensatory picks can be swapped once.

By the way, your Tigers are 5th in the latest ESPN Power Rankings.

Talk to everyone tonight.

Game 2012.96: White Sox at Tigers

51-44, 1st place, .5 games up.

On July 21, 2011, Justin Verlander threw 8 innings, allowing 1 ER and 5 hits to beat the Twins as the Tigers took over sole possession of 1st place; a position they never relinquished. Exactly 1 year later, Rick Porcello threw 8 innings, allowing 1 ER and 5 hits to beat the Chicago White Sox and the Tigers have now taken over sole possession of 1st place.

Apparently, someone read the memo. Porcello was dazzling. He had only allowed three hits through the first 8 innings – on 94 pitches. He was pulled after 2 singles in the 9th. Jackson came up huge with 4 RBI and Boesch tagged Sale with Sale’s first HR allowed to a lefty all season. All Tiger runs were scored with 2 outs, making that 11 runs in a row with 2 outs, and 35 out of 48 since the break scored in that fashion.

Though the White Sox have had trouble scoring runs as of late (2 runs or less in 6 out of their last 7), Jacob Turner has had problems not giving them up, so something may give today. Philip Humber has been one of the worst starters in the AL this year, and that includes a perfect game on April 21st against Sea. I’m hoping that we can score a few runs early to get Turner some confidence, and then turn it over to a well rested pen (other than Phil Coke) in the 4th or 5th. The top of the 1st will be key.

Latest Trade Rumors:

– The White Sox added Astros closer Brett Myers just hours before Saturday’s game.

– The Tigers had scouts watching James Shields‘ last start.

– Carlos Quentin looks to be close to signing a 3 year extension in San Diego; though Berry and Boesch have waned the Quentin rumors over the last few weeks (remember that Dirks is back in a few weeks as well).

– The Tigers have asked Seattle about lefty Jason Vargas, reports the Boston Globe.

– A Stephen Drew for Peralta deal looks to be a “long shot” according to sources quoted by Jack Magruder

– Still interested in Dempster, tweets Morosi.

I think that something will be done this week, even if it’s just getting Omar Infante back. Though I expect it to be more. I think that Mr. Illitch is committed to winning it all in the very near future, and has instructed DD to do what’s necessary to accomplish that.

Today’s Series Sweeping Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

 

Game 2012.95: White Sox at Tigers

50-44, 2nd place, .5 games behind CWS.

Wow, what a game last night. Other than a very poorly located 2-0 fastball, Verlander pitched a gem. The most incredible pitch of the night came in the 8th when a 100 mph 0-1 fastball literally sawed Gordon Beckham’s bat in half, on a check swing no less. Last night’s game was just what we expected, and needed, from JV. Valverde had a 1, 2, 3 ninth, but he came perilously close to walking Adam Dunn, and then needed a tremendous diving catch by Berry to get the third out (check out the emotion after the catch; I love it).  Also, all four of the Tigers’ runs came with 2 out, and the Tigers were 6-13 with RISP.

Ricky P takes the ball at 4:05 Eastern with a chance to pitch the Tigers into first place. Most of us would rank Porcello’s season this year as disappointing, perhaps even very disappointing, but I think a closer look at the numbers reveals that he’s actually progressing, and maybe even rapidly so.

First of all, let’s look at his peripherals. His walks per 9 are slightly up, but so are his Ks per 9. His 2.20 K/BB ratio is the best of his career. Also, his HR/9 has come down every year since 2009. His current 4.66 ERA is better than 2010 and 2011, and while his 2009 ERA was 3.96, that was due to a ridiculously low BABIP, as his 4.77 2009 FIP (see below) demonstrates. In most measurable categories, he’s improving.

So now let’s look as his sabermetric numbers. Porcello leads (not in a good way) the majors with a .358 BABIP against (Scherzer is .346 against, 2nd worst in the majors). I think that some of this can be blamed on poor fielding (we’ve discussed how few balls the Tigers infield gets to but know that JVs .238 BABIP is the 2nd best in the majors; Weaver’s is .233; imagine what JV could do with a better fielding infield). But in any event, a lot of BABIP can be attributed to the whimsical nature of chance. 52% of the batted balls against him are ground balls, which is a fantastic number, even for a sinker baller. His FIP (which is ERA without fielding factors) is a respectable 3.81 (which is above his career FIP average), and his SIERA (an even fancier play on ERA) is a career best 4.13. So can the BABIP explain it all? Or is it something else?

Taking a look at his batted ball stats shows that his line drive rate is up to 23.7%, which is almost 30% higher than his career average coming into the season. Batters are squaring up on him like crazy. And to be honest, I can’t figure out why. His velocity is up this year over his career numbers, and his pitch selection is in line with his usual numbers. So unless he’s tipping his pitches, the BABIP is going to regress way down, and Porcello will have an above average, maybe even a fantastic, 2nd half. (And I’d like to take back my prediction that he’s gonna get shelled today; candidly, I had not looked at all the numbers until now. Sorry Ricky P. You’re my boy.)

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Opposing Porcello this afternoon is AL ERA leader Chris Sale. The lefty (RABURN ALERT) is 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA. Over his past 10 starts his ERA is 1.61 and his WHIP is .89. We’re going to need Porcello’s A game and some clutch hits from our righty BOOBs to wake up in 1st place tomorrow. The Tigers did “rough up” sale for 3 runs and 5 hits over 5 innings back on April 15th in his 2nd start of the year.

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– The Tigers are 15-7, and are averaging 5.6 runs per game, since Toby Harrah was brought up to make Lloyd McLendon feel uncomfortable.

We’ll do a trade rumor update manana.

Today’s Ridiculous 2 Hole Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Raburn, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Boesch, RF
8. Laird, C
9. Worth, 2B

 

Game 2012.94: White Sox at Tigers

49-44, 2nd place, 1.5 games back.

Your Tigers are now 5 games over for the first time since they were 10-5; or they are 39-39 over their last 78 games. Taking three out of four from a scorching hot Angels team is quite an accomplishment, but the kind of baseball that we’ve expected from the Tigers all season long. If you remove Turner’s start, here’s what the starters did:

Porcello: 5.2 8 H 5 ER 3 BB 5K
Fister: 8 IP 2 H 1 ER 2 BB 10 K
Scherzer: 7 IP 3 H 1 ER 4 BB 9 K

That’s a 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.45 K/9. We’ll win a lot of baseball games with pitching like that.

I know that Porcello was shelled, but he’s going to be in the rotation through the rest of the season.

Look for defense to play a big role in this weekend’s series…the White Sox have only allowed 14 unearned runs all season, and are on pace to finish with the second fewest in a full season since 1920. The Tigers have allowed an AL worst 46 unearned runs this season, though they have not allowed any during this 10-2 run.

I predict that we take 2 out of 3. Verlander gears up for the division rival; Porcello gives up a few and Sale pitches a gem, then we win a wild one on Sunday as Jacob Turner loses all remaining trade value.

Tonight’s Running to a Meeting that Better End Before 6:05 PM Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Avila, C
8. Peralta, SS
9. Santiago, 2B