Game 2012.67: Cardinals at Tigers

32-34, 3rd place, 2.5 games back (picked up 1.5 games since the last DTW post)

Your Detroit Tigers have scrambled to win 3 straight series (after losing the opener in each), and are 7-3 over their past 10 games. The Cinci series was a nice one as they look to be the cream of the crop in the NL Central, but the Rockies and Cubs series were sweep-able. So let’s not get too excited, but hey, you have to win series, and hopefully the boys are getting used to doing that.

The Tigers look to continue their interleague dominance (.650 since 2006, 2nd best in the majors) against our old foes the Cardinals. That’s gonna be a tough task against Cardinals phenom Lance Lynn. In his first year as a starter, Lynn is 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a.209 BAA. His success has been a little perplexing, as he had control issues in the minors, but his K rates have always been good. In fact – he’s averaging more than a strikeout per inning in his big league career. So maybe it’s just a matter of batters getting used to him. He’s also been the benefit of 7.27 runs per game this year, which I don’t expect to happen against JV. Lynn throws a low  to mid 90s fastball and has a cut short curve. 8 of his 22 ER allowed his year have come in the 2nd.

JV was back to his dominating self last time out (as opposed to just above average in the few starts prior) allowing only 2 ER and 5 H over 8 IPs against the Cubs last week. A win today and JV will have his 114th W as a Tigers’ starter, tying him for 14th with Virgil Trucks.

Injury Update:

– Dotel back from the DL, Weber optioned down.
– Avila went 0-2 last night, his 15 days are up on Thursday.

A few notes:

– Don’t forget to vote 25 times for your Tigers on the All Star Ballot. Fielder is in the lead at 1B, Miggy will need some help if he’s going to start at 2nd.
– Brad Eldred’s AAA power got him a ticket to Japan. Good luck Brad, fun getting to know you.
– Drew Smyly’s ebola seems to be healed.
– Berry with another start, Boesch batting 6th against the righty.

Today’s Let’s Win an Opener Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Laird, C

20 thoughts on “Game 2012.67: Cardinals at Tigers”

  1. I meant Miggy needs help if he’s gonna start at 3rd. He’ll need a lot of help if he’s gonna start at 2nd.

  2. Every Verlander start, when he gives up his first hit he looks disappointed. I love this about him.

  3. 114 for JV, tying him with Virgil Trucks, who-coincidentally- is my sister in law’s great uncle. He’s also the great uncle(I think) of guitarist Derek Trucks.

    Worthless triva of the night from Alabama!

      1. She’s terrific. Talented couple, they are.

        Virgil Trucks threw 2 no hitters in one year….and went 5-19 that season.

  4. Another very good game, it’s a shame Berry dropped a ball in LF, because he had another good game, luckily it didn’t hurt them. If the #5 hitter, hits and they get solid pitching, then they will play .650 ball..To me, it’s that simple. I personally, like Boesch in the 6 hole as opposed to hitting 2nd.. I think Berry is more of a 9 hole hitter, but, as long as he continues to hit, it’s a good spot for him. I am wondering what is wrong with Valverde. I believe that he is a reliever we can afford to lose for the short term, with Dotel coming back, Villarreal, Coke, and Benoit is without a doubt our best bullpen arm. If Valverde is injured, let’s hope they use Benoit in the high leverage situations and don’t just make him the closer.

    1. I heard last night that it was a wrist issue. Sounds odd, but I’ll check again today before the next post.

    1. From: Jim Caple’s story today:

      Project Retrosheet founder Dave Smith scrupulously researched all late-inning leads over more than seven decades. He found that the success rate for a team protecting a ninth-inning lead hasn’t changed a bit over time, regardless of relief strategy.

      “It has never changed. Ever,” Smith says. “If you lead by three runs going into the ninth inning, you’re probably going to win. It’s a pretty safe bet.”

      While Jonathan Papelbon’s career save rate of 88.3 percent sounds impressive, Smith points out that teams historically have won 85.7 percent of games they led by one run after eight innings, 93.7 percent of games they led by two runs and 97.5 percent of games they led by three. Thus, it is clearly inefficient to pay Papelbon or any top closer $12 million a year and only use him for situations in which the team likely will win anyway.

      1. Interesting stuff. I had no idea about clause b – if a closer enters the game and the tying run is on the on-deck circle it counts as a save? That is ludicrous. Case in point, the 5-run Peralta save he uses as an example.

      2. Teams win at about a .263 rate when they are behind after the first inning. So why not use your best 1-inning relief pitcher to start the game out, instead of wasting with a 9th-inning lead when you will probably win anyway?

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