23-27, 3rd place, 5.5 games behind CWS (who have won 8 in a row).
Short and sweet for the Win.
1. Berry, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH (Maybe Verlander should DH)
6. Avila, C
7. Peralta, SS
8. Kelly, LF
9. Worth, 2B
23-26, 3rd place, 5 games behind Cle.
The Boston Red Sox, who started the season 0-3 after being swept by the Tigers, crept above .500 for the first time all year after yesterday’s 6-3 victory. JV had his worst outing since May 2011, allowing 5 ER in 6 IPs. He’s now 0-2 following a Tigers loss after a remarkable 12-0 run in his previous 13 games following a loss. I know that things look bleak, and it’s fashionable to write the Tigers off, but here are a few reasons why I’m not going to do so just yet:
1) Fielder and Cabrera are not hitting up to their standards, but they will. Both have below career average walk and slugging rates. Superstars do not forget how to hit. They alone are going to win several ball games individually, and jointly.
2) Scherzer will get better. His stuff is too good, and his K rate suggests that he should be significantly better. Moreover, his BABIP is .394, which is ridiculous, even with our infield. That number will come down.
3) We can’t get any worse at DH or 2B. I haven’t looked at WARP, but I’m pretty sure that we are deep into the negatives for both of those positions. The OPS+ for DH is 50, and for 2B is 46. It may take a few weeks to find better players, but DD knows that Delmon Young and Santiago / Worth are not viable solutions for DH and 2B. The key is that we just need better players. Laird, Berry, etc. Even if they can get to an OPS+ of 75, we’ll be fine.
4) The bullpen is coming around. Villareal, Dotel, Coke, Benoit and Valverde should get it done most nights.
Drew Smyly on the hill tonight, he’s come down to earth a bit after his incredible start. Smyly hasn’t pitched past the 5th in any of his last 3 starts.
A few notes:
– Raburn down, Santos up. Kind of anti-climatic. Look for Laird/Avila to get more ABs at DH. Santos was hitting .310 with 9 RBIs in 27 games at Toledo.
– Fister to the 15 day DL again with that same oblique strain.
– Ordonez will announce his retirement during a pregame ceremony on Sunday.
– Leyland is back to .500 for his career, 1,611 up, 1,611 down.
Tonight’s Lineup:
1. Quintin Berry, CF
2. Danny Worth, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Brennan Boesch, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Gerald Laird, DH
23-25, third place, 4 games behind Cle.
A missed strike three on a foul tip that was caught cleanly, but ruled to have hit the dirt first, gave the Red Sox an extra strike and 3 extra runs in the 2nd inning yesterday, and though Doug Fister will never admit it, you can’t help but wonder how different the game could have been. The margin of victory was, after all, 3 runs. I can’t see what the Boston press is writing about the call, but it seems that even they know the call was bogus. Leyland knew it from the time he left to dugout on his way to his 2nd ejection in a week, but his post game interview left me wondering why he’s so anxious for everyone else to address the problem other than him. His anger towards the media makes me think that the Raburn articles are getting to him; and perhaps he’s batting Raburn 2nd in an effort to prove everybody wrong. I know that it sounds ridiculous, but watch the video and tell me what you think.
As for the umpiring, Leyland is on to something. The blown call yesterday was made by Bill Welke at 1B. That name may sound familiar, because his brother Tim Welke missed a bunt by Alberto Gonzalez of the Rangers that hit him in the field of play in the 10th inning on April 22nd, and led to another Tigers’ loss (Tim Welke also had the blown call of the year when Todd Helton was 2 feet off the bag in early May). Throw in the missed balk in Cleveland last weekend, and the Tigers umps really have our number. I don’t remember umpiring being this bad in the good ol’ days, but then again, there has never been so much scrutiny on the game in terms of camera angles and coverage.
Fister fell to 0-3 and saw his ERA go up to 3.16 (after yesterday’s poor outing). Prior to the game Jeff Jones gave a little insight on Fister, Smyly and Porcello. Berry only had 1 hit yesterday, but he has hit safely in 6 games to start his Tigers career, something no one else has done since 1918. Leyland likes the spark he’s given the team, but said “don’t get crazy” thinking about possibilities for Berry, presumably once Jackson gets back.
JV is on the hill tonight looking for a little more run support this time than the 1 run he was given last time out. A complete game tonight would give JV three straight, something he’s never done in his career. JV’s lost to the Indians last week was his first following a Tigers loss in some time…according to Elias “Verlander (had been) 12-0 over his previous 13 starts that immediately followed a Tigers defeat, including a 4-0 mark in five previous starts under those circumstances this season.” That’s incredible. He’s got a chance to start a new streak tonight. JV is 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA covering 8 starts in his career against the Red Sox.
A few bits of good news…The bullpen has a 1.00 ERA since May 17th covering 27 IPs. Fielder is starting to rake, hitting .429 with a 1.089 OPS over the past two weeks.
Other notes:
– I’m starting to get a little nervous about the CWS. Sale looks to be the real deal.
– Rumor is that Jackson will be back for the Yankees series, hopefully for the opener on Friday. Jeff Riger says Berry must remain on the roster, and Chris Iott predicts that Raburn will be sent down since Kelly is out of options, yet Raburn has one remaining.
– We’ve been talking a lot about bringing up Justin Henry to play 2B, but keep an eye on Castellanos, who is tearing up Lakeland to the tune of a .414 BA and 1.030 OPS. They’re not going to bring him up any time soon (likely not this year), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get promoted in a month or so and then start taking some balls at 2B.
– Kurt Mensching of BlessYouBoys.com and DetNews.com writes today that fans should be leery of firing Jim Leyland.
– Ordonez will officially announce his retirement on Sunday at CoPa.
– Verlander’s parents are releasing a book on how to raise a child who will star in commercials with the likes of Kate Upton. Book signing coming your way soon.
********************
Today’s Lineup:
1. Berry, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B
Some last minute notes from the Freep: Leyland said a few hours ago that Raburn is on a “short leash” and Young was originally out of the lineup b/c his travel to and from New York for his court appearance; thank goodness for modern travel.
Detroit Tigers, 23-24, 3 games behind Cleveland, winning streak: 3 games.
Happy Memorial Day to everyone!
Ah yes, the Boston Red Sox. Remember when the season started with a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox in Detroit? The Tigers scored 26 runs in 3-games, they pulled off a clutch 11-inning victory for the sweep, and Duane Below managed to rack up 2 of the 3 wins. The Tigers had a legendary offense that was going to just crush the opposition, and cruise to an easy Central title. Oh well.
Boston had problems of its own, but seems to have righted the ship somewhat, and both teams go into this series with identical records. Austin Jackson again will miss this series with his abdominal strain, so Detroit is hoping the Q-Berry magic continues.
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Quintin Berry. Run, Quintin, Run!
Today’s What-Could-Be-More-Obvious-Than-Batting-Raburn-2nd Lineup:
Detroit Tigers, 22-24, 4 games behind Cleveland, winning streak: 2.
I can finally stop worrying how the Tigers are going to get back to .500 without winning winning consecutive games. We are now in the midst of a full-blown 2-game winning streak. It’s almost enough to make one forget the shaky defense they have been playing.
The offense came through again, and the icing on the cake was the bullpen performance. Scherzer struck out 9, after striking out 15 his previous performance, but was faltering even before a rain delay ended his day early. Dotel came in with runners at 1st and 3rd with 1 out, struck out Willingham, got Morneau to foul out, then struck out the side in the 7th. All in all the Tigers struck out 16 in the game.
Manager Jim Leyland said “a good game and everything but to me the hero of the game was Octavio Dotel.” As for Dotel, when asked how he keeps throwing 94 m.p.h. at his age, he said, “Yeah, I’m 38, but I feel 15.”
Speaking of the bullpen, we may need it today. Rick Porcello takes the mound for Detroit, and he has gone 3 straight outings without making it through the 6th inning. Porcello faces P.J. Walters, who has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins, filling in for Nick Blackburn with a 2-1 record and 2.95 ERA, including his first complete game last time out. He also beat the Tigers 4-3 in his previous appearance against them. On the other hand, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and he is named after pajamas.
***
I often find it entertaining to take a peek at the ESPN game previews and see what the two predictions for the game are, the AccuScore prediction and the fan prediction. Today AccuScore says Minnesota has a 52% chance to win this afternoon, Detroit 48% (I’m guessing home field is what swings it their way). The ESPN fan poll says: Tigers 96.2% Minnesota Twins 3.8%. On behalf of the Twins, we’d like to think you fans for your support. Both of you.
***
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Prince Fielder. The Tigers’ slump and Fielder’s slumps coincided. Fielder was 4-for-4 yesterday, and homered off of Walters the previous time they met. Fielder keeps the hot bat, and we forget that he takes the field wearing clown shoes.
Today’s Leyland-Read-The-Vince/Coleman-Posts-and-is-Trying-Boesch-At-DH Lineup:
Detroit Tigers, 21-24, 5 games behind Cleveland.
[Update: start of the game is delayed by rain. Tentative time for first pitch is 2:30 EST.]
Runs! And lots of them. Alex Avila said after the game: “We have the type of offense that can make up for mistakes.” Um, let’s not get carried away here.
It still remains to be seen if the Tigers can extend a winning streak beyond one game.
Trying to make that happen is Mysterious Max Scherzer, who is himself trying to put together consecutive good outings, fresh off of a 15 strikeout gem. Trying to spoil the party for Detroit is a one-time nemesis, Carl Pavano. Pavano was 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA against the Tigers in 2009, but is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA since then.
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Quintin Berry. While he is no Austin Jackson, Berry has provided a spark at the top of the lineup, and can do that thing where he moves his legs really fast while getting from one place to the next.
Today’s Streaking Lineup:
Detroit Tigers, 20-24, closer to Minnesota in the standings than to Cleveland.
The last time the Tigers won 2 consecutive games their starting 2nd Baseman was Brandon Inge.
Things are not well in Tigertown.
Justin Verlander, for one, is not particularly pleased.
Even Chris Perez got his digs in, saying that “good teams win baseball games.”
It’s clear what the problem is (though not so clear how to fix it): the Tigers just aren’t scoring runs.
The Tigers have scored 3 runs or fewer in over half of their games, in which their record is 6-17 (.261…somehow they have thus far avoided being shut out). The 3-run mark is where losing teams stop–over the league as a whole, teams are 50-227 (.181) when scoring 3 or fewer runs (that record jumps up to 54-32 in games with 4 runs).
You’ll notice the Tigers have actually been outperforming the averages in their low-scoring games, thanks to some brilliant starting pitching. It could actually be much worse.
It’s clear Earl Weaver ball (waiting for the 3-run home run*) isn’t working. For one thing, the home runs aren’t’ coming: the Tigers need a home run from each hitter in the lineup tonight to reach league average. And even when they do get one–like Avila’s the other day–that still only leaves them at that 3-run mark, unless they can do something else.
(*Weaver actually said that the key to winning was pitching, fundamentals, and the three-run homer).
Tonight Drew “No Run Support” Smyly (15 runs in 8 starts) looks to turn the tide. This looks like a good chance to do it: Smyly will be facing the 0-3, 4.73 Anthony Swarzak. And as bad as things have been, at least Detroit has yet to lose to a guy who believes that The Sasquatch (Bigfoot) exists, and intends to find one.
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Prince Fielder. When Fielder steps into the batters box in the 1st inning, Swarzak yells, “I’ve found one!!” rushes from the mound, and attempts to tackle “Bigfoot” Fielder. The Tigers pound the Twins bullpen following Swarzak’s ejection.
Tonight’s Return of Raburn Lineup:
20-23, 2nd place, 5 games behind Cle.
The Jim Leyland mediocrity meter is at defcon 6, as his career record is now 1,608-1,607. He’s .519 and .454 as Tigers Manager, good for a .533 winning pct. .533 for 2012 would get the Tigers to 86 wins, which may just win the Central. Did you know that JL is the 3rd winningest Tigers manager behind Sparky and Hughie Jennings? JL has a higher Tigers winning PCT than did Sparky. Just some fun facts.
JV on the hill today. You know the drill.
Today’s We Need a Win Berry Badly Lineup Is.
1. Berry, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Avila, C
8. Peralta, SS
9. Worth, 2B
20-22, 2nd place, 4 games behind Cle.
Short one today, but a few links of interest:
– How did we miss these Leyland smoking t-shirts?
– Some outside of our little site aren’t too worried about where the Tigers will end up this season. Others, on the other hand, think the Tigers dearth of role players justify an “overrated” tag for the team. The position by position comparison’s are pretty interesting.
– Spring Training sensation and my pick for the 25th guy Quintin Berry gets the start in CF and will leadoff tonight. No word on AJax’s injury.
– “Shocking, Leyland made the wrong move, again.” “Poor bullpen management and poor plate discipline.” “Oh, and it is time for the K-Burn experiment to come to an end. He has shown that he is not ready to be an everyday player.” Those gems were not from last night, but were comments from game 2011.42. History has a way of repeating itself.
Doug Fister climbs the hill tonight praying for a few runs. The Tigers have scored 5 while he’s been on the mound over his last 3 starts.
1. CF Quintin Berry
2. LF Andy Dirks
3. 3B Miguel Cabrera
4. 1B Prince Fielder
5. DH Delmon Young
6. RF Brennan Boesch
7. SS Jhonny Peralta
8. 2B Ramon Santiago
9. C Gerald Laird
20-21, 3rd place, 3 games behind Cle.
The Tigers roll into Cleveland to take on the division leading Indians tonight. Sounds odd but let’s not forget that the Indians were 7 games up on the Tigers one year ago, and then mostly held that spot until late July. I think it was Vince in MN who correctly predicted that the Indians would fade and the Tigers would surge in June based on matchups.
Well, we all thought that May would be a good time for the boys, but in a month where the best team the Tigers have faced is Oakland (who is 1 game above .500 right now), the Tigers are 9-10. The next 10 to finish out the month won’t be easy, with 3 against first place Cleveland, 3 against a better playing Minny who swept the Tigers in a short series last week, and then 4 against the red hot Red Sox.
Rick Porcello climbs the hill tonight. After a great first two starts he had a rocky back half of April, but has been better over his last three starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in May. Porcello has been pretty good against the Tribe over his career, limiting them to 2 runs or less in 8 of his 12 career starts against Cle for a 3.86 ERA.
Raburn was placed on the bereavement list today, Danny Worth up for at least a few days.
Austin Jackson will…not…be batting lead-off tonight. He was originally in the lineup, only to be scratched a short while ago.
1. Ramon Santiago, 2B
2. Andy Dirks, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Brennan Boesch, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Don Kelly, CF
– We’re 1/4 of the way through the season. Let’s hope that was our worst quarter.
– Miguel Cabrera is 4th on the team in OPS at .850, just behind Fielder at .851. Austin Jackson leads the team at .958, slightly ahead of…Andy Dirks at .954. The rest of the Tigers are comfortably below what would be considered average for a Major Leaguer.
– Warning – Jackson is at a .388 on balls in play. That should regress to around .350 (he’s higher than league average b/c of his speed), though it never dropped in 2010.
– A lot of people thought that JV would take a slight step back after his sterling MVP/Cy Young season last year. He’s actually posting a higher K rate, a lower WHIP, a lower ERA, a lower walk rate, and a lower HR rate than 2011.
– Even though Yu Darvish is 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 2.23 K/BB, I think that Drew Smyly has out pitched him – 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.38 K/BB.
– FanGraphs finished up their radio broadcaster rankings. The vast majority of the baseball that I follow is over the airwaves, so these were incredibly entertaining to me. Dickerson and Price came in at a respectable 13th, though I think that they could have been a little higher. Respondents seem to love Dickerson, but to be lukewarm towards Price. Correctly so, the Yankees and White Sox came in last and 2nd to last, respectively. The voter comments are hilarious, I definitely recommend reading all of the articles.
Detroit Tigers, 19-21, 4 games behind Cleveland, and tied with Pittsburgh.
So much for the theory that the Verlander performance would provide a big spark: the Pittsburgh McCutcheons evened the series with a 4-3 win, and added insult to injury by taunting them with Jason “Gas Can” Grilli. It was all too much for Grilli, who is now listed as Day-to-Day on the Pittsburgh injury report.
Sparky Anderson once said, “You can’t tell anything about a baseball team until 40 games have been played.” Well, the Tigers now have 40 under their belt. What do you think?
This afternoon the Tigers look to take the series behind the arm of the enigmatic Max Scherzer. The Pirates counter with right-hander Kevin Correia, who last won on April 15th.
After today’s game the Tigers get a long day off, then hop on the bus for Cleveland for a key 3-game series against the division leaders.
***
Random stat of the day: Baltimore leads the AL with 27 wins, and also leads the AL in GIDP with 46. 2nd most GIDP belongs to the worst team in the league, Minnesota, at 44. Detroit is 3rd with 39. Make of that what you will.
***
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Brennan Boesch. Delmon Young had another good game yesterday. We finally have something going from the 5-hitter. Now if we could only get something from the 6th spot. Boesch has quietly been heating up, and is in the midst of a 12-game hitting streak. Leyland bumps the struggling Avila down the lineup and moves Boesch up to 6th.
Tonight’s Return of Raburn Lineup: