Game 2010.116: Tigers at White Sox
I’m wondering if we can create a metric which measures overall bullpen effectiveness. My argument is that this bullpen (and to some extent the mis-management of it) has been the number one cause of our demise. Something like quality starts. Holds doesn’t do it for me, b/c it’s an individual measure. There may be something already out there…any help here? If not, any ideas? Here’s mine.
Simplistically, I looked at the number of times that a reliever lowered or raised his ERA over the past few weeks (“positive” or “negative outings”). Problem is that reliever ERAs don’t just get raised, they get blown up. Thus, a 1 IP 1 ER effort is significantly more negative than a 1 IP 0 ER effort is positive. My thinking is that for every X appearances, a reliever should have Y positive outings, and Z negative outings, on average.
I realize that WHIP is probably a better number than ERA, but I’m not sure what we set the WHIP at. Anyway, I’d be curious to see if something better already exists (likely), or if we can come up with something ourselves.
Quick tidbit – The Tigers lead the majors with 34 triples allowed. Even though, back to back triples is RARE. Tigers pitchers this season have allowed 1 triple for every 129 batters faced, or .77%. So the chances of giving up back to back triples is .006% or roughly 1 in 17,000. (Though Beckham and Pierre probably have a much higher likelihood than just about any other two batters in a lineup across baseball.)
Jackson – CF
Damon – DH
Boesch – RF
Cabrera – 1B
Guillen – 2B
Inge – 3B
Raburn – LF
Avila – C
Santiago – SS
Baseball is fun.