Game 2010.116: Tigers at White Sox

I’m wondering if we can create a metric which measures overall bullpen effectiveness.  My argument is that this bullpen (and to some extent the mis-management of it) has been the number one cause of our demise.  Something like quality starts.  Holds doesn’t do it for me, b/c it’s an individual measure.  There may be something already out there…any help here?  If not, any ideas?  Here’s mine.

Simplistically, I looked at the number of times that a reliever lowered or raised his ERA over the past few weeks (“positive” or “negative outings”). Problem is that reliever ERAs don’t just get raised, they get blown up.  Thus, a 1 IP 1 ER effort is significantly more negative than a 1 IP 0 ER effort is positive.  My thinking is that for every X appearances, a reliever should have Y positive outings, and Z negative outings, on average.

I realize that WHIP is probably a better number than ERA, but I’m not sure what we set the WHIP at.  Anyway, I’d be curious to see if something better already exists (likely), or if we can come up with something ourselves.

Quick tidbit – The Tigers lead the majors with 34 triples allowed.  Even though, back to back triples is RARE.  Tigers pitchers this season have allowed 1 triple for every 129 batters faced, or .77%.  So the chances of giving up back to back triples is .006% or roughly 1 in 17,000.  (Though Beckham and Pierre probably have a much higher likelihood than just about any other two batters in a lineup across baseball.)

Tonight’s lineup:

Jackson – CF
Damon – DH
Boesch – RF
Cabrera – 1B
Guillen – 2B
Inge – 3B
Raburn – LF
Avila –  C
Santiago – SS

Baseball is fun.

41 thoughts on “Game 2010.116: Tigers at White Sox”

  1. You have to work in Inheirited Runners results, data which exists somewhere. That would be crucial for those pitchers that come in and have to work out of a jam. That’s meaningless for someone beginning an inning of course (esp. the closer). The situations would have to be evaluated separately, and then the question becomes how minutely. ERA is relatively useless for evaluating relief pitchers (one bad outing can throw everything off, as we know) and WHIP can be skewed too (e.g. IBB). Relief pitching is the hardest thing to assess statistically. In the end maybe just watching them day in and day out is the best guide. Consistentcy getting the job done even with a bump here and there, may be the best test.

    1. Plus, what criteria do you use for a mop-up guy as compared to closer or set-up man, etc.
      I’m getting s headache just thinking about all the potential ways this could be broken down.

      We need 5 starters who can go 7 or 8 innings EVERY game, then we wouldn’t need to have this discussion.

  2. well… here goes.

    Time for Jim Leyland to go.

    He has mismanaged this years opportunities and players.

    He never seams to learn that you want a pitcher that wants the ball but it’s your job as a manager to know when to take it away from them.
    No communication to the bullpen….this is what makes Ozzie Guillén a great manager….Like him or not!

  3. Okay Kathy,

    here’s a perfect example to watch what I’m talking about…
    let’s see who’s in the bullpen…IMHO, Rick Porcello is done after this inning (5th)…

      1. Carlos didn’t exactly help him out there. At this point, I would think someone would be warming up in the BP.

  4. Porcello is obviously a Big League Player…I don’t question his ability. I question his management.
    81 pitches

  5. Christ…it’s like decision by committee….Always to late to pull the trigger Leyland !!!!

    I think my point is made.

    1. He’s obviously not comfortable batting 3rd. In an attempt to make as many outs as possible (working through it) by the end of the season, Leyland should have him hitting 1st.

  6. What is this thing Leyland has this year with changing pitchers mid-inning when there is nothing going on.

  7. This is what I know about Leyland: he wouldn’t bench Inge with bad knees last year while he killed the tea,. He WILL bench Inge this year in the last week of the season so he doesn’t break the all-time Tigers strikeout record. You can count on it!

    1. Of course Alex never would have come up if Inge hadn’t gotten on.

      Therefore, player of the game = Inge.

  8. Another winning streak started. And Cleveland lost, KC is losing, so we tighten our grip on 3rd place.

  9. IF there is nothing wrong with ValVerde and Capt Mumbles did this on a whim…it just further proves he is the worst manager of pitchers in baseball….

    that being said two wins in one week is pretty nice!.

  10. I feel bad for Miggy. What should have been his banner year, killed by Mumbles. Can you imagine ARod playing in the kind of environment that Miguel has to deal with on a daily basis.

    Henning says Magglio won’t be back. That’s a killer for me to take. Magglio, Magglio, Magglio. I can’t ever forget him.

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