Comments on: Because the centerfielder has to leadoff

By: Keith (Mr. X)

Keith (Mr. X) — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 05:08:50 +0000

IMO, Granderson batting in the middle of the order is a bad strategy since he can’t hit lefties. If he were to bat 5th, behind Cabrera when a Lefty was pitching, then Cabrera would have been pitched around nearly every AB. Same thing late in the game. Cabrera will get walked, then in comes a LOOGY to pitch to Granderson and the inning is over. It’s an easy strategic decision not to bat Grandy behind your best right handed power hitters.

Where does he bat for the Yankees? It certainly won’t be behind AROD. My guess is that Girardi is going to have the same line-up headaches of where to bat Granderson that Leyland had. It’s probably best for the Yankees to platoon him in LF with Thames and bat him 8th or 9th. I’m glad he’s Girardi’s problem now.

By: Coach Jim

Coach Jim — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 03:00:17 +0000

I missed the big chunk of lineup discussion, but let me add a few of MY OPINIONS:
1. Speed from a leadoff hitter is a luxury, not a requirement. Also, if a team is power-laden, caught stealing can be a huge detriment. Case in point, one of my favorite leadoff hitters of all time: Tony Phillips. The ONLY real requirement of a leadoff hitter is OBP.
2. If your team is not power-laden, and you choose to manage an old-timer, or NL type of game, then speed becomes more important because it assumes you will be bunting, hitting to RF, and tagging up a lot.
3. I want low strikeouts from my #2 hitter. It’s not that I want him to hit in more double plays, it’s that I want the ball in play so the runner has a chance to advance. The more speed the leadoff hitter has, the more important this is. If Magglio were to bat first, then any whiff-machine can bat second and it wouldn’t matter much TO ME.
4. Logical lineups can indeed create more runs. Extra base hits with runners on is ideal. I say, put the guy with the best extra base power 4th and the 3 best OBP ahead of him. I had this exact thing happen to me back in the early 90s when I was playing semi… I was always a leadoff hitter, good speed, no power. There was another guy pretty much like me on the team who batted 2nd. Then we had a guy who was a GREAT hitter…better than either of us two. Usually he batted 3rd. One day we show up and the manager switches me and the #3 hitter. Of course he leads off the game with a triple. #2 guy hits a single, then I hit a single. From 1B I yell out to Skip “hey, if you had the normal lineup, we’d have 2 runs now.” The next game we were back to normal.

By: scotsw

scotsw — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 18:50:39 +0000

Keith, I don’t think anyone argues power is a negative for a lead-off hitter. You have to believe the thinking is, power is more important elsewhere, and teams always have some players who don’t hit for power. There’s also the overall trend that high-power guys have a tendency to swing hard and therefore tend to have higher Ks and thus, lower OBP. Players who hit for average, OBP AND power are called Albert Pujols and/or Alex Rodriguez. And you’d be a fool not to bat a guy like that 3 or 4.

By: TSE

TSE — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 19:53:23 +0000

Yay Carlos Guillen moves to SS!!!

By: Kirk

Kirk — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 19:00:18 +0000

Leyland is not a good baseball strategist. He’s already said he doesn’t respect OBP. The game has passed him by, and he hasn’t evolved or embraced the realities of modern baseball.

In Leyland’s warped view of thinking, the speediest guy should always lead off. That’s why he had Granderson batting lead off, when it was clear to most that he fit the Tigers’ lineup better as a middle-of-the-order power bat than a lead off man. So, of course he would prefer Jackson hitting higher in the order than Sizemore, a player who is much more likely to get on base.

The only hope is that Damon signing means he will bat lead off and Sizemore will bat second. I believe his bat is more MLB-ready than Jackson’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson sent back to AAA for more seasoning. His poor K:BB ratio and lack of power in AAA point to the fact that he could struggle against major league pitching.

By: Mark L

Mark L — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 03:20:17 +0000

Maybe JL wants to protect Sizemore in the lineup because there are no other options at 2b. But there are others in CF.

By: Mark L

Mark L — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 03:12:46 +0000

That’s the kind of answer I was looking for. It’s not the Ks themselves, it’s that they portend an inability to achieve a high obp, which is the most important thing for the leadoff hitter. Thanks.

By: Kathy

Kathy — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 23:14:11 +0000

Here’s Johnny!!!!

By: Spike

Spike — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 17:27:11 +0000

You’re right. There’s not much for them to say, but that doesn’t stop us from parsing every meaningless word.

By: Andre in Chi

Andre in Chi — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:56:27 +0000

Adam,

I’m guessing you’re unaware of TSE’s track record; in short its a lot of him saying that other people’s measurement systems / management approaches are flawed, and that he knows way better than anyone. This would be very interesting, if not for the fact that he’s yet to show or back-up his statements in any meaningful way. The canned response is usually something along the lines of “i would but i don’t have a blog” or “i’d show you but i’m waiting to show MLB executives”.

Also, I take offense to your characterization of the awkwardness I create as hostile, its more playful than anything.

By: Mark in Chicago

Mark in Chicago — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:13:49 +0000

I am aware that PECOTA is not ESPN’s property. I was just pointing out the unique prediction for the AL Central.

By: billfer

billfer — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 13:02:22 +0000

I agree with Guillen as a candidate. I’d like to see him hitting in one of the top two spots of the lineup as well.

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 11:22:08 +0000

Just an FYI but PECOTA isn’t ESPN’s property. It is owned by baseball prospectus and they came out with the numbers about a month ago.

PECOTA is so frugal that sometimes they are dead on (projected TB to win the AL-East 2 years ago) and sometimes they are way off (projecting the Tigers to finish 4th in the Central last year). PECOTA would work if baseball had no luck and every player’s value projected exactly the same on the field. I think of PECOTA as a what should happen projection. As we know though, often the projections don’t work out. Otherwise we’d have won the WS after getting Cabrera.

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 11:17:55 +0000

1. Having power shouldn’t be a negative from leading off. If I had a 40 SB LF who also hits 15 HR (Crawford) I wouldn’t tell him to hit less HR.
2. Stealing bases before power hitters is risky and often dumb. Getting caught stealing not only gives your team an out but it also takes a potential run off the board when power guys come to the plate. Also, most hitters can score from 1st on a double and if the the batter hits a homerun it doesn’t matter if they were at 1st or 2nd! While I’m not endorsing moving a really slow hitter to leadoff (Maggs) I’m saying your speedstar can hit 8 or 9 and steal and be more effective. All you need at leadoff is someone fast enough to run out some double plays and score from 1st on a double (and in Detroit that’s easier with how deep the walls are).
3. IMO leadoff is the most important stat for a leadoff guy (2nd is k rate) and Jackson’s is lower than Sizemore. You said that the leadoff guy needs to be on base for hitters 2, 3 and 4. OBP is that stat. Doesn’t your reasoning prove OBP is the most important?
4. This is different then the leadoff points but I just thought I’d add it here since I mentioned it above. Having a 40 SB threat hitting 8 or 9 (in the AL) makes more sense to me then having them hit first. Stealing can get you caught and you hurt your team a lot more when the guy who’s on deck is your #3/4 hitter and not your #9/1 guy. In addition to the increased damage to your team, stealing when power hitters are up makes no sense. HRs clear the bases. You don’t need to be at 2nd to score on a HR. But you do need to be at 2nd to score on a single. And who hits singles? Bottom and top of the lineup hitters. So doesn’t a SB increase in value when you have a non-power guy behind you in the lineup? Finally, when a player attempts to steal a base the batter must often take the pitch. I don’t want Cabrera to have to sit on amazing fastball because the leadoff guy is trying to take 2nd. I’d much rather have a double or HR. Power guys also often have a smaller contact % with pitches so I don’t want them to start with any more strikes then they need. 8,9, 1 and 2 hitters often have better contact rates so going down 1 or even 2 strikes isn’t as big of a deal.

I think an ideal lineup would include a high OBP leadoff man, the best hitter hitting 3rd (like Pujols does), and a top tier SB guy hitting 9th.

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 11:01:03 +0000

Yes, groundballs are worse then k’s when men are on base but when you leadoff the game nobody is on base!

I know you know that and you’re talking about later in games but that’s why managers often put speedy hitters at the 8th and 9th slot. That way a groundball only gets 1 out not 2.

Ks are never good for a hitter. When a ball is hit in play there is a chance (around 30%) that the hitter will safely make it to a base. When there is a K there is 0% (okay maybe 0.2% with drop 3rd strikes) that a baserunner will get to a base.