Perusing PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus released the first run of their 2010 PECOTA numbers this week, which makes for much fun in the stat-centric baseball community. PECOTA differentiates itself from many of the other predictors by finding pools of comparable players to make their predictions. While the numbers are premium content (and can also be found in the printed annual), I will share a few of the items that jumped out at me about the Tigers.

The system puts the Tigers at 78-84 which is 3rd place in the AL Central behind the division leading Twins (83-79) and the second place White Sox (80-82). The Tigers run prevention is pegged at 2nd in the division at 776 runs allowed; the White Sox are first at 751. But an offense full of questions from young and old players alike is expected to be the division’s worst.

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Trying to balance

You have probably noticed things have been very quiet around here. I normally find ways to generate a number of posts even when the news cycle lulls. That hasn’t happened here since the winter meetings. I’m not sure when that is going to change. I know you don’t come here to read about me, you come to read about and discuss the Tigers, so I’ll keep this short. But I feel I owe all of you an explanation.

The winter meetings and most importantly the blockbuster trade hit me hard. As a fan I was quite frankly bummed out and as a blogger I was worn out. Put the two together and the last thing I wanted to do was talk about baseball and the Tigers. This was a new sensation. This freed up at least 8-10 hours a week that I backfilled by spending more time with my family, and taking a much more active role as husband and father. It turns out I really like those roles.

My family sacrifices quite a bit to this blog. We take vacations only where there is wireless. I rush putting the kids to bed during the season so I can watch the game and moderate comments. I don’t have a lot of meaningful conversations in the evening with my wife during the summer months. Throw in the fact that I end up sleeping only 4-5 hours a night and stop working out completely and it isn’t a healthy lifestyle.

Now that the focus is on the 2010 season, the juices are starting to flow again. But the time still isn’t there. My day job has taken a turn where that is consuming more hours than ever before, and now that I want to write I have even less time to do it.

What I’m saying is that I need to figure out where this blog fits into my life while keeping the things most important to me in the forefront. It will be a work in progress. You will likely see more posts in the coming weeks than you have in the past month. I don’t want to overpromise anything, but considering how dead things have been the goal isn’t that lofty.

Thanks for your patience and understanding.

Tigers find enough in the cushions for Valverde

The Tigers today managed to scrounge up $23 million and invested that in Jose Valverde. The deal is reportedly 2 years and $14 million plus a $9 million option for a 3rd year. For a team looking to be more fiscally responsible and acquire cheap young high end talent to build for the future this move makes no sense.

Valverde is a pretty good pitcher. He fans better than a batter an inning with moderate control making him a 3.47 FIP pitcher for his career. He also brings some experience to a very very young bullpen. There might be some value in that. In short, the Tigers are better than they were yesterday. But…

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