Comments on: Quantifying Lloyd McClendon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:11:17 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Coleman http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134791 Coleman Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:57:31 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134791 I think it's a bit silly to say guys like Thames and Inge "refused" to hit the ball the other way...maybe the couldn't, but that doesn't mean they didn't want to. When teams put the extreme shift on against Thames, you don't think the guy really really wished he could drive one to right field? And you think if they replace the hitting coach (which I'm all for, by the way), that the new guy (recommendations?) will turn Thames into an Ordonez? Good luck with that. As for Inge, part of the rationale for his new stance was to be able to wait longer on pitches and hit to the opposite field more often. At the break Inge was the 3rd best opposite field hitter on the team, behind Cabrera and Polanco (or Ordonez, I forget which now), with 3 HR and 14 hits to RF. He finished with 3 HR and 15 hits. Can't, or won't? Maybe it's not so easy to go opposite field if you're getting zero leg drive? Anyway, it's a skill Inge never exhibited before, so I've got to give credit here to Inge and Lloyd, regardless of what I think of them generally. I think it’s a bit silly to say guys like Thames and Inge “refused” to hit the ball the other way…maybe the couldn’t, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t want to. When teams put the extreme shift on against Thames, you don’t think the guy really really wished he could drive one to right field? And you think if they replace the hitting coach (which I’m all for, by the way), that the new guy (recommendations?) will turn Thames into an Ordonez? Good luck with that.

As for Inge, part of the rationale for his new stance was to be able to wait longer on pitches and hit to the opposite field more often. At the break Inge was the 3rd best opposite field hitter on the team, behind Cabrera and Polanco (or Ordonez, I forget which now), with 3 HR and 14 hits to RF. He finished with 3 HR and 15 hits. Can’t, or won’t? Maybe it’s not so easy to go opposite field if you’re getting zero leg drive? Anyway, it’s a skill Inge never exhibited before, so I’ve got to give credit here to Inge and Lloyd, regardless of what I think of them generally.

]]> By: Andre in Chi http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134782 Andre in Chi Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:04:07 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134782 "One guy tells it all……Grandy can no longer even play against Lefties, that is massive regression." Granderson v Lefties 2005 (25 ABs) .320/.393/1.073 2006 (147 ABs) .218/.277/.672 2007 (119 ABs) [McClendon takes over as Hitting Coach] .119/.225/.494 2008 (147 ABs) .259/.310/.739 2009 (180 ABs) .183/.245/.484 Its not regression, Grandy just doesn't consistently hit lefties well (or just doesn't hit them well in odd-numbered years where he's had more than 100 ABs). "We always try to make some case for a coach..and say he has no impact, well, OK he had no impact…He gets paid a ton..to have no impact?" I agree with what you're saying here in general, the problem is how to go about showing the lack of impact. There might be a better argument for replacing McClendon just for the sake of a "new voice" (which I'm not necessarily against), but it doesn't look like there's too much damning evidence against. Especially not when age and injury could be argued to account for much of the decline in production for players like Maggs, Polanco and Guillen. Basically, if you want to get rid of McClendon to "shake things up", in the hope that that alone is what's needed, fine...but lets not kid ourselves that he's THE issue. “One guy tells it all……Grandy can no longer even play against Lefties, that is massive regression.”

Granderson v Lefties

2005 (25 ABs)
.320/.393/1.073

2006 (147 ABs)
.218/.277/.672

2007 (119 ABs) [McClendon takes over as Hitting Coach]
.119/.225/.494

2008 (147 ABs)
.259/.310/.739

2009 (180 ABs)
.183/.245/.484

Its not regression, Grandy just doesn’t consistently hit lefties well (or just doesn’t hit them well in odd-numbered years where he’s had more than 100 ABs).

“We always try to make some case for a coach..and say he has no impact, well, OK he had no impact…He gets paid a ton..to have no impact?”

I agree with what you’re saying here in general, the problem is how to go about showing the lack of impact. There might be a better argument for replacing McClendon just for the sake of a “new voice” (which I’m not necessarily against), but it doesn’t look like there’s too much damning evidence against. Especially not when age and injury could be argued to account for much of the decline in production for players like Maggs, Polanco and Guillen. Basically, if you want to get rid of McClendon to “shake things up”, in the hope that that alone is what’s needed, fine…but lets not kid ourselves that he’s THE issue.

]]> By: Chris http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134780 Chris Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:04:34 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134780 We always try to make some case for a coach..and say he has no impact, well, OK he had no impact...He gets paid a ton..to have no impact? This is the same things they said about Chuck Hernandez. Llyod is terrible and the fact that they never grinded out at-bats..The Number of walks to strikeouts...does not tell the story of how many mail in at-bats or inability to move a leadoff double to 3rd or score a run from 3rd w/ less than 2 outs...They had fringe ML hitters like Inge, Thames, etc. and they refused to hit the pitch the other way, when the situation called for it and it, fittingly, bit them in the end. They never addressed this issue (judging from the approaches these guys took, down the stretch)...They need to replace all their hitting people in the ML and majors. That is as big a no-brainer as getting rid of Chuck..yet, I hear the same appologists for Lloyd that Chuck recieved. One guy tells it all......Grandy can no longer even play against Lefties, that is massive regression. We always try to make some case for a coach..and say he has no impact, well, OK he had no impact…He gets paid a ton..to have no impact? This is the same things they said about Chuck Hernandez. Llyod is terrible and the fact that they never grinded out at-bats..The Number of walks to strikeouts…does not tell the story of how many mail in at-bats or inability to move a leadoff double to 3rd or score a run from 3rd w/ less than 2 outs…They had fringe ML hitters like Inge, Thames, etc. and they refused to hit the pitch the other way, when the situation called for it and it, fittingly, bit them in the end. They never addressed this issue (judging from the approaches these guys took, down the stretch)…They need to replace all their hitting people in the ML and majors. That is as big a no-brainer as getting rid of Chuck..yet, I hear the same appologists for Lloyd that Chuck recieved. One guy tells it all……Grandy can no longer even play against Lefties, that is massive regression.

]]> By: Coleman http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134774 Coleman Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:40:29 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134774 Knapp? I thought next was gonna be "Quantifying The B.O.O.B.s"... Knapp?

I thought next was gonna be “Quantifying The B.O.O.B.s”…

]]> By: Joel in Seattle http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134773 Joel in Seattle Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:59:01 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134773 I agree, Keith. It's a love/hate relationship with all of those guys. I agree, Keith. It’s a love/hate relationship with all of those guys.

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134771 Vince in MN Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:27:19 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134771 It is probably a case where we just have to cross our fingers and hope that JL, DD, et al know what they are doing. For those fans that find rearranginng the deck chairs on the Titanic reassuring, that might be just fine, while for those who have no fear of throwing out the baby with the bathwater, this thesis may not work so well. As for myself, I just want to say that I firmly agree with all of my colleagues on DTW. And now on to "Quantifying Rick Knapp", yes? - Ha ha. Anyway good fun as we slouch towards what looks to be a Yankees-Phillies WS. It is probably a case where we just have to cross our fingers and hope that JL, DD, et al know what they are doing. For those fans that find rearranginng the deck chairs on the Titanic reassuring, that might be just fine, while for those who have no fear of throwing out the baby with the bathwater, this thesis may not work so well. As for myself, I just want to say that I firmly agree with all of my colleagues on DTW.

And now on to “Quantifying Rick Knapp”, yes? – Ha ha. Anyway good fun as we slouch towards what looks to be a Yankees-Phillies WS.

]]> By: Andrew in Toronto http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134765 Andrew in Toronto Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:50:13 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134765 It doesn't seem to be true either. Here's his real numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=polanpl01&year=Career&t=b#count The count he really never swings on is 3-0. Only ONCE has he put the ball in play on a 3-0 count in his entire career! It doesn’t seem to be true either. Here’s his real numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference......;t=b#count

The count he really never swings on is 3-0. Only ONCE has he put the ball in play on a 3-0 count in his entire career!

]]> By: billfer http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134764 billfer Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:37:41 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134764 I agree Vince which is why I didn't really come out with a strong position. It was more showing that the stats don't really paint a damning picture of Lloyd. That's not to say he's doing a good job, just that what we the public have to work with doesn't really show him to be doing a bad job. I agree Vince which is why I didn’t really come out with a strong position. It was more showing that the stats don’t really paint a damning picture of Lloyd. That’s not to say he’s doing a good job, just that what we the public have to work with doesn’t really show him to be doing a bad job.

]]> By: Keith (Mr. X) http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134762 Keith (Mr. X) Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:56:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134762 I'm going to miss those guys when they're gone. When they are good, they are the kind of players that give a team character. They've had some very rough years lately though. I’m going to miss those guys when they’re gone. When they are good, they are the kind of players that give a team character. They’ve had some very rough years lately though.

]]> By: Andre in Chi http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134761 Andre in Chi Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:36:38 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134761 "“Now, guys like Ordonez, Cabrera and Polanco have shown they can hit when falling behind on the count, guys like Inge, Laird, Thames have not” I’ve seen numbers indicating that Maggs, Cab and Polly are better 1st-pitch hitters, but haven’t seen too much indicating they are better in high-counts. I would be interested in those." I'm going to retract my end of this, because I read "falling behind" and thought "high pitch-counts" for some reason. As jcm points out, Polly hates the 1st pitch. ““Now, guys like Ordonez, Cabrera and Polanco have shown they can hit when falling behind on the count, guys like Inge, Laird, Thames have not”

I’ve seen numbers indicating that Maggs, Cab and Polly are better 1st-pitch hitters, but haven’t seen too much indicating they are better in high-counts. I would be interested in those.”

I’m going to retract my end of this, because I read “falling behind” and thought “high pitch-counts” for some reason. As jcm points out, Polly hates the 1st pitch.

]]> By: Andre in Chi http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134760 Andre in Chi Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:19:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134760 wouldn't that be the 3rd pitch? wouldn’t that be the 3rd pitch?

]]> By: jcm http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134759 jcm Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:18:32 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134759 "I’ve seen numbers indicating that Maggs, Cab and Polly are better 1st-pitch " Polanco almost never swing at the first pitch. He always swing at the second His career Avg. with 0- 2 was .490 “I’ve seen numbers indicating that Maggs, Cab and Polly are better 1st-pitch ”
Polanco almost never swing at the first pitch. He always swing at the second
His career Avg. with 0- 2 was .490

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134757 Vince in MN Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:57:26 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134757 From the position of an outsider, I think there are just too damn many variables to be able to assess the success or failure of any particular coach. Emphasizing sabermetrics doesn't get one very far. The numbers don't take into consideration intangibles such as 1. Does LMcL know his stuff and how does he interact (and how much) with the players. 2. Do the players listen or are they even interested in what he has to say (Inge?). 3. Does it matter if LMcL knows and the player listens (Thomas?) 4. Does the hitting coach even need to interact in some cases (Cabrera?). With a manager, you can at least assess their effectiveness somewhat (and this is even kind of a grey area) based on game/series/season decisions which we are privy to. But with coaches we have no such information. It is almost entirely based on conjecture. In the case of the '09 Tigers, the true solution to the problem is likely similar to Agatha Christie's mystery "Murder On the Orient Express", where all the suspects had a hand in the dirty deed. From the position of an outsider, I think there are just too damn many variables to be able to assess the success or failure of any particular coach. Emphasizing sabermetrics doesn’t get one very far. The numbers don’t take into consideration intangibles such as 1. Does LMcL know his stuff and how does he interact (and how much) with the players. 2. Do the players listen or are they even interested in what he has to say (Inge?). 3. Does it matter if LMcL knows and the player listens (Thomas?) 4. Does the hitting coach even need to interact in some cases (Cabrera?).

With a manager, you can at least assess their effectiveness somewhat (and this is even kind of a grey area) based on game/series/season decisions which we are privy to. But with coaches we have no such information. It is almost entirely based on conjecture.

In the case of the ‘09 Tigers, the true solution to the problem is likely similar to Agatha Christie’s mystery “Murder On the Orient Express”, where all the suspects had a hand in the dirty deed.

]]> By: Stormin Norman $ http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134756 Stormin Norman $ Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:01:26 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134756 WOW!! ...you don't see many guys walking away from $16M guaranteed (over 2 yrs) - must be a cultural (Japanese honor) thing. Amusing suggestion Joel, but the Tigers will have to endure (and pay) the likes of Inge $7M, Robertson $10M, Bonderman $12.5M and Willis $12M, etc. for only one more year. WOW!! …you don’t see many guys walking away from $16M guaranteed (over 2 yrs) – must be a cultural (Japanese honor) thing. Amusing suggestion Joel, but the Tigers will have to endure (and pay) the likes of Inge $7M, Robertson $10M, Bonderman $12.5M and Willis $12M, etc. for only one more year.

]]> By: Joel in Seattle http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134755 Joel in Seattle Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:23:01 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/10/quantifying-lloyd-mcclendon/#comment-134755 Any way we can convince Inge to opt out of his contract and go home to play for the Nationals? http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2010094809_johjima20.html Any way we can convince Inge to opt out of his contract and go home to play for the Nationals?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....ima20.html

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