Comerica is not doubles friendly

Why is it that people keep insisting that Comerica Park is a great park for doubles? Is it the large centerfield? The huge-mongous gaps between the outfielders? I just don’t know but it just ain’t true but now even the general manager is saying it.

John Lowe wrote about the Tigers lack of doubles as an indictment of the offense. I can’t really argue that point as the Tigers ranked 30th in MLB with only 245 doubles. That isn’t good at all.

What I will take issue with is that the number was remarkable because of their home ballpark. Lowe cites the fact that it was strange that the Tigers had more doubles on the road than at home. He quotes Dave Dombrowski on the subject as well:

“When you talk about the Tigers and our ability not to score runs and not hit the way we should, it’s the lack of doubles,” Dombrowski said. “We have a ballpark that is conducive to a doubles-hitting club. It has tremendous gaps.”

But here’s the rub, Comerica Park is a bad park for doubles.

doubles by year

The table shows the number of doubles hit by the Tigers and their opponents each year at Comerica Park, and on the road (don’t forget back in 2009 the Tigers had one extra road game). For each of the last 5 years – and I didn’t go back further because I think the point has been made – more doubles are hit other places than at Comerica.

The ratio, more commonly referred to as a park factor, routinely puts Comerica Park in the bottom third in the majors in terms of doubles. A value of 1 would be neutral, values greater than 1 mean the park would be favorable and values less than one mean it is unfavorable. Over the last 5 years it’s been about 6% harder to hit a double at Comerica park than at a typical stadium. So can we finally put to rest the notion that it is a good doubles ballpark?

For more on Comerica’s outfield and other park factor goodness, you may want to check out these posts from the archives:

Sizemore needs surgery

The early encouraging returns on Scott Sizemore’s broken tibia have been replaced with a cringe inducing MRI report. During his examination today, it was determined that the injury will require surgery.

Sizemore told John Lowe and the Freep:

“The torn tendons cause instability in the ankle,” Sizemore said. “They are going to put in a few screws to lock everything into place.”

The team isn’t commenting yet. It looked like a sure thing that Sizemore, the Tigers likely second baseman in 2010, would be fully healed in a matter of weeks and the injury would be a non-factor by February. The prognosis isn’t dire at this point, but there is a possibility he won’t be all the way back by the time players report to Lakeland.

Based on the information available in the Free Press article, Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll said in an email:

“My guess is he’ll be back for ST, but maybe not 100% while he figures out the ankle. It depends on how he heals. It shouldn’t be too much of a long term issue. I’ve never seen a 2B with this, so it’s tough to judge.

Color me cautiously optimistic

Tigers prospect Scott Sizemore needs surgery | Detroit Free Press | Freep.com

Tigers not tapped out? In on Chapman?

There are a lot of unknowns heading into the Tigers offseason, but one constant assumption has been that the Tigers are working on a limited budget. The only dispute has been how limited. Now there may be reason to doubt that assumption as the Tigers have interest in Cuban southpaw Aroldis Chapman.

Chapman is 21 and comes with a 100mph fastball and the type of price tag that those traits typically warrant. He could find himself getting a Daisuke Matsuzaka type deal. That would seem to limit his suitors to those flush with cash to spend.

Chapman likely won’t end up in Detroit. I can’t see the Yankees or Mets or Red Sox letting him get away. But the fact that the Tigers are even interested in a meeting given the price tag tells me things might not be as fiscally dire as they appear.

Sizemore leaves AFL game with injury

Latest Update: Sizemore has a fractured tibia and is on his way to Detroit

Scott Sizemore, the heir apparent at second base left today’s game in the first inning due to an injury. He was trying to turn a double play when a hard slide by Danny Espinosa caused both players to exit. What we know right now is that Sizemore’s injury is to his left leg but I hope to know more shortly.

Mark Anderson’s sources say it is an ankle with no confirmation on severity

On a brighter note Casper Wells hit a 2-2 Stephen Strasburg curve ball out to left center for a grand slam.

Much ado about Carlos Guillen

Jason Beck caught up with Carlos Guillen late last week and a maelstrom was the result. Guillen wasn’t happy with the way Jim Leyland handled things at the end of the year. Leyland explained his side. The two talked. Leyland says everything is fine. Guillen isn’t saying much else. Guillen was wrong to go public with this. He’s wrong about his own abilities. But he’s far from a selfish teammate.

Guillen was displeased with a couple aspects down the stretch. He was upset that as a left fielder he didn’t get regular playing time and he was upset about the shuffling of the lineups.

Continue reading Much ado about Carlos Guillen

Desert Update: Sizemore Shines

sizemoreThe Tigers representatives in the Arizona Fall League now have a week under their belts. Since the opener most have handled the challenge quite well so far with your likely 2010 second baseman Scott Sizemore leading the way.

Scott Sizemore

All he’s done is homer 3 times, double twice, and walk twice in 18 plate appearances. That’s good enough for a 375/400/1.063 slash line and prompting Kevin Goldstein to say “there isn’t really a glaring weakness in his game.”

Casper Wells

Mark Anderson of TigsTown thinks that a big fall could put Wells in the mix for the outfield rotation in 2010. So far he has a 444/450/889 line in 19 plate appearances. He has fanned 8 times though so it appears he’s either hitting the ball hard or not at all.

Cale Iorg

So far Iorg seems to be picking up his AFL season where his Erie season ended, and that’s not necessarily a good thing. He has a 182/182/250 line so far but I guess the good news would be that he’s only fanned 4 times. In Kevin Goldstein’s BP 10 Pack he listed this scout’s comment on Iorg:

I like the tools and what he does with the glove… but he just can’t hit.

Andrew Oliver

After getting knocked around a little bit in his first outing he bounced back nicely fanning 3 and walking 1 in his next outing which lasted 2 innings. He followed that up with a 1 inning stint that saw him allow 2 hits, but no damage while notching another strikeout.

Robbie Weinhardt

Weinhardt also improved with his second outing, but that was really the only way for him to go. But he still allowed 2 runs in 1.1 innings. Weinhardt has allowed 7 runs in 3 AFL innings on 9 hits and 3 walks. For someone who allowed just 8 earned runs in 30 AA innings this year this is certainly uncharacteristic.

Scot Drucker

Drucker isn’t really viewed as a prospect, but he has done well with this opportunity so far. He’s allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings despite just striking out 2.

Quantifying Lloyd McClendon

It’s no secret that the Tigers offense was far from satisfying this year. It was the second year in a row that the offense seemed to perform below expectations, after having a huge season in 2007. Naturally suspicions and fingers start to point towards the hitting coach. Is the criticism of Lloyd McClendon justified?

McClendon and the Tigers offense seems to be following a similar trajectory to Chuck Hernandez and the pitching staff over the last 3 years. Hernandez came in 2006 and the Tigers had a dominant pitching attack. The staff regressed in 2007 and after an awful year in 2008 Hernandez was deemed the reason and he was let go.

McClendon arrived on the job in 2007 which saw the Tigers put up one of the top offenses in the league. The offense struggled in 2008 and in 2009 the offense was the culprit in too many losses and the Tigers were outscored despite being pretty good at run prevention. The offense was 10th in batting average and runs scored, and 9th in slugging and OBP and OPS.

Performance against expectations

Now one of the tough things about evaluating coaches from the outside is that there are considerable unknowns and there are rationalizations or explanations for most of what happens. What we can do is look at what a player was expected to do prior to the season. We can look player by player and see if there is a pattern of players over or underperforming expectations.

Continue reading Quantifying Lloyd McClendon

Quantifying Gerald Laird

Twins vs. Tigers


With Gerald Laird you know what you get. A player who is challenged offensively but who can lay down a bunt. He brings very little value offensively. He’s also a player with quick feet and a strong accurate arm behind the plate. The offensive part is easy to slap numbers on and assess. But while there has been quite a bit of advancement in defensive statistics, particularly around range, those range stats don’t really apply to catchers. Understanding just how much Laird contributed defensively beyond a caught stealing percentage had been kind of a mystery. Fortunately some work done at Driveline Mechanics has helped to translate a catcher’s defense into runs saved.

This methodology focuses on caught stealing, pitch blocking, and errors. A common belief is that there is little difference amongst catchers when it comes to game calling. Pitchers and catchers would probably tell you a different story, but being able to tease out tangible results from a greatly called game versus a poorly called one (as opposed to all the other variables in play like a pitcher’s stuff, the opposition, random variation, etc.) is well…difficult?

It’s no surprise that Laird flourishes underr this study. His caught stealing rate of 42% was outstanding in and of itself. That he saved 5 runs more than the next best catcher (Yadier Molina) is astounding. In total Laird was the top defensive catcher at 13.3 runs saved above average, a full half-win better than the next catcher.

Laird’s difficulties with the bat make him a liability at the plate and he was 16.9 runs below average with the bat (about 1.5 wins – or losses in this case) and with a positional adjustment Laird is about 1 win above a replacement level player. Add in his defense though and his value doubles to just over 2 wins above replacement.

The question for the Tigers for 2010 then is whether they look to improve offensive production at the catcher position or whether to look for improved production at other spots to be able to carry Laird’s glove in the lineup.

AFL Season kicks off

The Arizona Fall League started today. The Tigers had quite a few representatives in today’s effort, a game that saw the opposition hang 17 runs on the board.

I guess the bad news first, the Tigers had 3 pitchers in today’s game. Scot Drucker started and allowed a run in 2 innings. It was downhill from there. Andy Oliver drew a tough assignment for his first professional action and he was tagged for 4 runs due to 2 hits, including a homer, and 2 walks in his inning of work. Robbie Weinhardt got knocked around for 5 runs on 6 hits, a walk, a wild pitch, and a hit by pitch in 1.2 innings.

Offensively things were a little better. Scott Sizemore had an 0 for 4, but Casper Wells doubled and singled and Cale Iorg went 1 for 3.

Winter Leagues: Arizona Fall League: Statistics | MLB.com: Events

UPDATE: Take 75 North weighs in on the game and Fire Jim Leyland looks at Oliver’s pitch f/x data.

links for 2009-10-13

The 9th Inning – 2009 Edition

Long time readers of this site remember a feature called the Inning Report. Reader Sam Hoff would break down the season into 18 game segments or “innings.” Why 18 game? Because there are 9 18 game segments in a season. Tuesday’s game against the Twins completed not only the season, but the 9th inning as well (this one had 19 games). Sam is still putting these together, but he’s posting them on his site this season. So click through to read The 9th Inning is Over with games through Tuesday.

One thing about this team, they were consistent. In 7 of the 9 inning segments the team won either 9 or 10 games. They managed to do this while being outscored in each of the last 5 innings.

The Tigers pitchers did their part in keeping runs off the board, even if they weren’t always dominant. Edwin Jackson was throttled and posted a 1.45 WHIP. Rick Porcello posted a 1.39 WHIP but had much different results. I’d guess that to be a function of ground ball hits not hurting has bad as fly ball hits.

With Polanco and Ordonez both posting OBPs above .400 down the stretch, Miguel Cabrera probably needed to have more than 14 RBI, although that’s not even a bad total for a 19 game stretch.

One thing that really jumped out was that Alex Avila only had 8 at-bats in this last segment and no extra base hits.

Tigers retain 5 coaches, not Van Slyke

I had been expecting an announcement about the coaching staff, but this wasn’t it . The Tigers invited 5 of their 6 coaches back for the 2010 season, but Andy Van Slyke is pursuing other other options.

In addition to coaching first base and catching the ceremonial first pitches, Van Slyke also had responsibility for the outfielders and baserunning. Mike Rogers looked at the numbers on both of those fronts and found them to be largely inconclusive. The Tigers baserunning hasn’t been good, but they haven’t had a lot of speedsters or 1st to 3rd guys. Their outfield defense has been mostly adequate.

Tom Gage notes that the replacement will most likely come from within the organization and that the early speculation is that roving minor league instructor Gene Roof would get the gig, though staff assignments haven’t been finalized yet.

I’m most concerned that there doesn’t appear to be any organizational traction to alleviate Lloyd McClendon of his duties.

Fire Jim Leyland: Andy Van Slyke’s Impact on the Tigers
Tigers say goodbye to Andy Van Slyke | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Andy Van Slyke Won’t Return Next Season – Bless You Boys