links for 2009-08-28

by billfer on August 28, 2009 · 5 comments

in Links



Kyle J August 28, 2009 at 10:49 am

The link about hitting with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs is interesting. Tigers are basically an average team in this category. Roughly speaking, you have a 1/3 chance of the hitter getting on base, a 1/3 chance of an out that scores the runner, and a 1/3 chance of an unproductive out (slightly higher chance of the unproductive out than the productive one). We tend to remember the 3rd category a lot more than the first two.

Speaks, in my mind, to the weakness of the productive-out-move-the-runner-along theory of scoring runs. It’s harder to do than the commentators think it is, and you only get one run even if it works.

Coleman August 28, 2009 at 4:42 pm

Actually I don’t read these stats as showing us avg at all. We’re 4th of 5 in the Central–and also happen to be 13th of 14th in the Al. Where we look avg is in runs/PA– again, Central avg, we’re well below AL avg–due to leading the division in HR/ PA.

With a runner on 1st and 3rd 1 out we’re among the least likely to get the runner in, the most likely to strike out, the most likely to hit into a GIDP, and the most likely to hit a 3-run HR…I’m not impressed…

Jeff Molby August 28, 2009 at 5:16 pm

It’s probably fair to say we’re below average, but we’re still within a normal range, right? How many runs are we actually talking about here? My guess is that the general conclusion still applies.

If you want to score more runs, worry about hitting better in general. Don’t look back at the particular chances you squandered, because you’re not getting them back again and you probably didn’t do anything out of the ordinary in those situations anyway.

ouchudied August 28, 2009 at 5:33 pm

I’m thinking there isn’t going to be any baseball played tonight, doesn’t look like the rain is going to hold up. Sucks for the retiree trying to visit 30 parks in 30 days because tonight he is visiting Comerica.

Coleman August 28, 2009 at 6:37 pm

If we were converting at the avg rate we would have 5 more runs–which isn’t nothing, considering all the 1-run losses. If we were converting at the rate of Tampa Bay we’d have 13 more runs, which is even more significant.

However a bigger problem is getting guys on 3rd, or even on base, in the first place. Because at our current rate of scoring runners from 3rd, if we had as many opportunities as Tampa Bay with a runner at 3rd less than 2 out, we’d have 30 more runs, which is VERY significant.

(overall Tampa Bay has scored 57 more runs than us just in runner on 3rd less than 2 out situations. Contemplate that!)

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