Comments on: Game 2009.126: Tigers at Angels

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 23:13:00 +0000

“Even with a platoon disadvantage an option like Guillen was probably safer bet.”

I wouldn’t trust a guy in a situation he’s almost never encountered in his life (batting from the left side vs. a lefty). Furthermore, Everett is a better career hitter vs. LHP than Guillen.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 22:33:54 +0000

You’re right, he’s getting more horizontal movement on his pitches than the last 2 years. Pitch selection itself doesn’t mean anything. I wonder how these numbers compare to years before 2007. Is this data available?

By: Keith (Mr. X)

Keith (Mr. X) — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 22:00:46 +0000

Really, you really don’t see the differences in pitch selection and movement? Oh well.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:33:18 +0000

I looked at it. Doesn’t tell me much on its face.

By: Keith (Mr. X)

Keith (Mr. X) — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:21:49 +0000

If don’t watch the guy pitch and see his improvements, then just look at Washburn’s pitch fx at fangraphs instead-
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitch.....position=P

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:28:56 +0000

Maybe we’re not being consistent with the word “luck.” When I say Washburn has been “lucky,” that includes the outstanding Mariners OF defense and Safeco field. A combination of those factors and just plain old “luck” – i.e., balls just not finding holes, is probably responsible for this year’s aberration.

“Sometimes pitchers get hot and sustain those high levels for quite some time.”

There’s little in Washburn’s fundamental statistics to indicate he’s thrown the ball better than his career averages. He’s not throwing more strikes. He’s not missing more bats. He was walked guys a little bit less. The differences are BABIP and HR/FB rate, stats which are helped greatly by defense and park. If you can explain to me specifically how he has thrown the ball better, I’d listen, but otherwise the only difference I see is in results-based stats like ERA, WHIP, etc that rely heavily on external factors.

By: Keith (Mr. X)

Keith (Mr. X) — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 17:22:22 +0000

He started throwing a splitter this year. That’s one reason for his improvement. Gutierrez and Chavez have helped a lot too, they are dynamos for sure.
To me, luck is whether or not a bloop fly ball drops in for a hit or if a ground ball takes a bad hop or finds a hole in the infield. That doesn’t happen often though. To me BABIP is what it is- it’s batting average of balls in play. How that is converted to luck, I do not know. Luck is such a small part of the game that I’m surprised someone can even think that pitching can be mostly luck.
Sometimes pitchers get hot and sustain those high levels for quite some time. My 1st thoughts about those pitchers are 2001 John Burkett and 2003 Estaban Loiaza. To me, there is nothing more exciting than watching a veteran pitcher reinvent himself and find success after having some declining years. Burkett was one of my favorites. He had some crazy movement on his pitches in 2001 and he was part of the Braves rotation where he fed off off Maddux and Glavine.

By: Birdy

Birdy — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 08:49:59 +0000

Jackson’s day/night splits are interesting. He walks 2.14/9 at night, 4.45/9 in day games. That’s 30 day walks in 60.1 innings, and 26 night walks in 109.2 innings. ERA is a point higher during the day. 10HR allowed at both day and night even though almost two thirds of his innings are at night. Is nine day games a big enough sample? Or has he just had the misfortune of facing better teams then? Is it worth adjusting the rotation to have him avoid day games? Or can we at least review his day game preparation?

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 05:28:34 +0000

I agree to some extent. Yes, he was probably throwing the ball better than he had in years. But I disagree – it has a lot to do with luck. He was also the beneficiary of some external factors — a) Seattle has the best OF defense in baseball, and as a flyball pitcher, was helped immensely by Gutierrez, Chavez and Ichiro, b) Safeco field, which has a big OF and therefore he benefited from his OFs’ great range, especially as a FB pitcher (though this could very well carry over to Comerica, which is why I like him much better on the Tigers than the Yankees), and c) luck – hit balls just weren’t going for hits. So yes, he probably pitched better and deserved some of the praise he’s received this year, but he was also helped a lot by external factors — in other words, luck.

In the end, all that matters obviously is what he’ll do going forward. Based on 10 years of history, I think he’s much, much, much more likely to pitch like he has over his career, which is an average ML pitcher, than he did in the 1st half of this year. There’s really no reason to think otherwise.

By: RoseTattoo

RoseTattoo — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 05:12:44 +0000

Doctor

By: Jud

Jud — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 05:00:48 +0000

Guillen took some BP right handed both mon and tues so he must be putting work into getting back there..In fact he only hit right monday, each time in the cage, and only hit left both days in the games

By: Jud

Jud — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 04:57:43 +0000

Huff played both Mon and Tues and Thanks Jim for not playing him Wed and the best thing I can say about him is…………………………………………………..!

By: Keith (Mr. X)

Keith (Mr. X) — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 04:48:11 +0000

Yes, he was pitching better than normal. Sure he’ll regress to his normal levels, but it has little to do with luck, and more about being hot or cold. He was pitching awesome before he got traded.

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 04:47:57 +0000

Ya know what they call the guy who graduates last in his Medical School class?

By: Jud

Jud — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:27:56 +0000

Just got back from Anaheim and offer these observations:
1. the Heat was brutal today even sitting in the stands,,,had to be 100+ Everyone jammed themselves into the shade sections and moved with the sun
2. Inge did not look good physically and it showed batting
3. Funny the Angels had 5 stolen bases in 5 change ups or breaking balls. in the 80-s…how did they know ..someone or something tipped them off.
4. The Angel fans were very gracious about the Tigers winning the series …especially last night when the Tiger fans and there were quite a few of us were whooping it up
5. Saunders basically put the usual number in the Tigers and after watching we wondered how he did it????
6. Leyland did very little lefty, righty switching batting when pitchers changed it was worse yesterday where he defied logic more than a couple times then again today. ,,,,I know I know don’t try and figure it out…but he could have gone after the game a lot harder than he did today ….Especially when Saunders left the game..
7. All in all GREAT THREE days at he Sombrero!!!!!!!!!!!