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	<title>Comments on: Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/13/09, Guillen&#8217;s rehab</title>
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	<description>News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball</description>
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		<title>By: Kevin in Dallas</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123545</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin in Dallas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:13:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123545</guid>
		<description>Ahh, my bad Adam.  

But I don&#039;t know.  Porcello looks amazing right now, but a lot can go wrong between now and 10 years.  Again, I don&#039;t think I&#039;d do it, but I&#039;d definitely consider it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ahh, my bad Adam.  </p>
<p>But I don&#8217;t know.  Porcello looks amazing right now, but a lot can go wrong between now and 10 years.  Again, I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;d do it, but I&#8217;d definitely consider it.</p>
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		<title>By: Coleman</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123544</link>
		<dc:creator>Coleman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123544</guid>
		<description>It seems a Smoltz-Alexander comparison would be more apt, with Halladay a level above an Alexander, and Porcello with twice the value that Smoltz had at the time...which raises the stakes a bit...I&#039;m not sure if this is as good a trade the future for the present situation as 1987 was though...

And I&#039;m still not convinced the appearance of Kenny, Clemons-like, in the 2nd half of the season is an impossibility (as far as I can tell he never has officially retired, he is listed as a free-agent).  If nothing else he would shore up the one weak spot of our defense compared to last season--the pitcher&#039;s mound.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems a Smoltz-Alexander comparison would be more apt, with Halladay a level above an Alexander, and Porcello with twice the value that Smoltz had at the time&#8230;which raises the stakes a bit&#8230;I&#8217;m not sure if this is as good a trade the future for the present situation as 1987 was though&#8230;</p>
<p>And I&#8217;m still not convinced the appearance of Kenny, Clemons-like, in the 2nd half of the season is an impossibility (as far as I can tell he never has officially retired, he is listed as a free-agent).  If nothing else he would shore up the one weak spot of our defense compared to last season&#8211;the pitcher&#8217;s mound.</p>
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		<title>By: Adam</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123542</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 05:07:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123542</guid>
		<description>Did you get the &quot;Mr. Rogers&#039; Neighborhood,&quot; reference? I was just trying to be funny. That said, it&#039;s ridiculous to trade away a possible 10+ years of dominance for 3.

Besides, how does that help us this year? We&#039;d still need another starter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Did you get the &#8220;Mr. Rogers&#8217; Neighborhood,&#8221; reference? I was just trying to be funny. That said, it&#8217;s ridiculous to trade away a possible 10+ years of dominance for 3.</p>
<p>Besides, how does that help us this year? We&#8217;d still need another starter.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin in Dallas</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123541</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin in Dallas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 03:32:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123541</guid>
		<description>Whoa...Halladay = Kenny Rogers?  Let&#039;s tap the brakes a bit.

Porcello has the stuff to be a #1, but I&#039;d at least take a look at any deal for Halladay.  I think the guy has at least 3 or 4 unbelievable years left in him.  

All the pitchers that come to mind who were dominant into their mid-30s stayed dominant into their late 30s (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson).  In fact, Pedro is the only one that I can think of who fell precipitously, and I think it&#039;s because he called himself the Yankees&#039; b.  

That said, I just invested 10 min of my life in b-r and BP, and here&#039;s what I found.  Halladay&#039;s similarity scores list is pretty stout, but most of those guys declined rapidly at 33/34.  Based on similarity score age, I&#039;d give him a 50/50 chance of being a great pitcher in 3 years.  

Over at BP, they&#039;ve got him with a 20+ VORP through age 36, though those figures don&#039;t include this year&#039;s #&#039;s, which leads me to believe that his high VORP predictions may be extended.  

Conclusion, I don&#039;t deal Porcello for Halladay, but I consider everyone else, including Paws.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whoa&#8230;Halladay = Kenny Rogers?  Let&#8217;s tap the brakes a bit.</p>
<p>Porcello has the stuff to be a #1, but I&#8217;d at least take a look at any deal for Halladay.  I think the guy has at least 3 or 4 unbelievable years left in him.  </p>
<p>All the pitchers that come to mind who were dominant into their mid-30s stayed dominant into their late 30s (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson).  In fact, Pedro is the only one that I can think of who fell precipitously, and I think it&#8217;s because he called himself the Yankees&#8217; b.  </p>
<p>That said, I just invested 10 min of my life in b-r and BP, and here&#8217;s what I found.  Halladay&#8217;s similarity scores list is pretty stout, but most of those guys declined rapidly at 33/34.  Based on similarity score age, I&#8217;d give him a 50/50 chance of being a great pitcher in 3 years.  </p>
<p>Over at BP, they&#8217;ve got him with a 20+ VORP through age 36, though those figures don&#8217;t include this year&#8217;s #&#8217;s, which leads me to believe that his high VORP predictions may be extended.  </p>
<p>Conclusion, I don&#8217;t deal Porcello for Halladay, but I consider everyone else, including Paws.</p>
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		<title>By: T Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123537</link>
		<dc:creator>T Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 23:35:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123537</guid>
		<description>I agree with Adam.  I wouldn&#039;t trade Porcello straight up for Halladay.   But if a trade for Halladay included a package with Perry, I might consider...

I also wouldn&#039;t be surprised if we are currently seeing the peak of Halladay&#039;s dominance.   I think the Jays are well aware of this and realize his stock is at it absolute high point right now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with Adam.  I wouldn&#8217;t trade Porcello straight up for Halladay.   But if a trade for Halladay included a package with Perry, I might consider&#8230;</p>
<p>I also wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if we are currently seeing the peak of Halladay&#8217;s dominance.   I think the Jays are well aware of this and realize his stock is at it absolute high point right now.</p>
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		<title>By: Adam</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123536</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:09:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123536</guid>
		<description>Rick Porcello would never be on that list. Maybe a Wilkin Ramirez - but you&#039;re not going to trade away a career starter in his first year to get a pitcher who&#039;s getting into Kenny Rogers&#039; neighborhood.

In other words, we don&#039;t need him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rick Porcello would never be on that list. Maybe a Wilkin Ramirez &#8211; but you&#8217;re not going to trade away a career starter in his first year to get a pitcher who&#8217;s getting into Kenny Rogers&#8217; neighborhood.</p>
<p>In other words, we don&#8217;t need him.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123533</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 19:07:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123533</guid>
		<description>Bottom line this is what it will take for the tigers to get Halladay :

1. Rick Porcello
2. Ryan Perry
3. Cale Iorg ( dad played for the jays and they love that kind of stuff)
4. Ryan Strieby
5. Danny Worth or another infield prospect

Iif you think anything less you are kidding your-self. You also get Halladay for the stretch run and next year. The tigers will also be able to afford an extension with Magglio &amp; Sheff coming off the books and Doc is only 33.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bottom line this is what it will take for the tigers to get Halladay :</p>
<p>1. Rick Porcello<br />
2. Ryan Perry<br />
3. Cale Iorg ( dad played for the jays and they love that kind of stuff)<br />
4. Ryan Strieby<br />
5. Danny Worth or another infield prospect</p>
<p>Iif you think anything less you are kidding your-self. You also get Halladay for the stretch run and next year. The tigers will also be able to afford an extension with Magglio &amp; Sheff coming off the books and Doc is only 33.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123510</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:19:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123510</guid>
		<description>You couldn&#039;t get Carl Pavano for a Dlugach/Miner deal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You couldn&#8217;t get Carl Pavano for a Dlugach/Miner deal.</p>
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		<title>By: Andre in Chi</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123508</link>
		<dc:creator>Andre in Chi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:45:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123508</guid>
		<description>Seems like wishful thinking re: Tigers being serious suitors. 

I haven&#039;t heard that much noise these last couple years surrounding our SS prospects, I don&#039;t see why the Jays would rate them higher than we would.

Yes, we have more &quot;depth&quot; at starting pitching than most teams, but that&#039;s very much an &quot;on paper&quot; type of statement. Looking past Verlander, the proven quality of our starters (ie. performing year in and year out) is scarce, and those that are proven commodities are either injured (Bonderman), or guys we aren&#039;t likely to part with (Jackson).

I&#039;ll lose my mind with delight if we pick up Halladay on the cheap though.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Seems like wishful thinking re: Tigers being serious suitors. </p>
<p>I haven&#8217;t heard that much noise these last couple years surrounding our SS prospects, I don&#8217;t see why the Jays would rate them higher than we would.</p>
<p>Yes, we have more &#8220;depth&#8221; at starting pitching than most teams, but that&#8217;s very much an &#8220;on paper&#8221; type of statement. Looking past Verlander, the proven quality of our starters (ie. performing year in and year out) is scarce, and those that are proven commodities are either injured (Bonderman), or guys we aren&#8217;t likely to part with (Jackson).</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll lose my mind with delight if we pick up Halladay on the cheap though.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark in Chicago</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123507</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark in Chicago</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:39:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123507</guid>
		<description>from the story:

&quot;According to a source familiar with the Blue Jays&#039; needs, they want a young shortstop and a back-of-the-rotation starter in a package for Halladay.&quot;

&quot;in a package&quot; to me means that it&#039;s going to take more than just those two players to get a deal done.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>from the story:</p>
<p>&#8220;According to a source familiar with the Blue Jays&#8217; needs, they want a young shortstop and a back-of-the-rotation starter in a package for Halladay.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;in a package&#8221; to me means that it&#8217;s going to take more than just those two players to get a deal done.</p>
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		<title>By: T Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123506</link>
		<dc:creator>T Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:22:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123506</guid>
		<description>URL above...   (still getting used to placing comments in the right spot)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>URL above&#8230;   (still getting used to placing comments in the right spot)</p>
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		<title>By: T Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123505</link>
		<dc:creator>T Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:20:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123505</guid>
		<description>http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2009/07/blue_jays_roy_halladay_uncerta.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2009/07/blue_jays_roy_halladay_uncerta.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.mlive.com/tigers/in.....certa.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: T Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123504</link>
		<dc:creator>T Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:16:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123504</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll try to find the story... but I think I deleted it...   I was shocked myself, but according to the source, that&#039;s what they want.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll try to find the story&#8230; but I think I deleted it&#8230;   I was shocked myself, but according to the source, that&#8217;s what they want.</p>
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		<title>By: T Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123503</link>
		<dc:creator>T Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:14:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123503</guid>
		<description>It does seem a little low, but I&#039;d be willing maybe to throw in another pitching prospect if it would sweeten the pot...   at the end of the day how much rent do you pay for a player of Halladay&#039;s caliber?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It does seem a little low, but I&#8217;d be willing maybe to throw in another pitching prospect if it would sweeten the pot&#8230;   at the end of the day how much rent do you pay for a player of Halladay&#8217;s caliber?</p>
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		<title>By: Andre in Chi</title>
		<link>http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123502</link>
		<dc:creator>Andre in Chi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:13:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/tigers-minor-league-wrap-71309-guillens-rehab/#comment-123502</guid>
		<description>Can you link the story? 

The Jays have to keep salary low, hence the need to move Halladay, but I agree with Mark that &quot;young shortstop&quot; + &quot;4-5th starter&quot; is light. As in very light. As in, you&#039;d have to force-trade on MLB 2k.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can you link the story? </p>
<p>The Jays have to keep salary low, hence the need to move Halladay, but I agree with Mark that &#8220;young shortstop&#8221; + &#8220;4-5th starter&#8221; is light. As in very light. As in, you&#8217;d have to force-trade on MLB 2k.</p>
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