Comments on: What’s up with Verlander in the stretch? http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:06:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Joel in Seattle http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115758 Joel in Seattle Mon, 27 Apr 2009 19:51:06 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115758 Maybe he needs to just trust the game that Laird's calling and quit shaking off so many pitches... Seems to be working for the other guys. Maybe he needs to just trust the game that Laird’s calling and quit shaking off so many pitches… Seems to be working for the other guys.

]]> By: Adrian from Toronto http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115756 Adrian from Toronto Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:46:41 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115756 Humberto Sanchez was released by NYY We should re-pick him up and help him get back to where he was. Humberto Sanchez was released by NYY

We should re-pick him up and help him get back to where he was.

]]> By: Nick http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115753 Nick Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:16:41 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115753 This is a terrific article. Great work. This is a terrific article. Great work.

]]> By: RPS http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115752 RPS Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:20:18 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115752 One related thing I'm curious about and don't really know where to find: Is there a difference in JV's strike/ball/foul/in play 1st pitch percentages with and without runners on? It seems like when he gets in trouble, he goes 1-0 on every hitter. The difference between starting 1-0 and 0-1 could explain a good deal about his outlier 'luck' stats. One related thing I’m curious about and don’t really know where to find:

Is there a difference in JV’s strike/ball/foul/in play 1st pitch percentages with and without runners on? It seems like when he gets in trouble, he goes 1-0 on every hitter. The difference between starting 1-0 and 0-1 could explain a good deal about his outlier ‘luck’ stats.

]]> By: Mark J in DC http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115751 Mark J in DC Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:30:40 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115751 The takeaway seems to be that he's not using his most effective pitch as often when he needs to pitch most effectively. He may be throwing the curve more to get people to ground into double plays, but with less movement on it from the stretch, instead of getting groundouts he's getting hit more often. The takeaway seems to be that he’s not using his most effective pitch as often when he needs to pitch most effectively. He may be throwing the curve more to get people to ground into double plays, but with less movement on it from the stretch, instead of getting groundouts he’s getting hit more often.

]]> By: Chauncey http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115750 Chauncey Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:40:11 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115750 Great numbers Billfer- what I was thinking part of Verlander's problem has been is that he gets behind in the count too often, but from what the numbers show, he's throwing about 2/3 of his pitches for strikes. Maybe its a simple case of not throwing his fastball enough with runners on base, but who knows? The other problem Verlander does seem to have is the defense behind him seems horrid. Just look at his last game with Rayburn butchering a few plays in right. Doesn't mean that Verlander was great, but I would guess that 3 or 4 of the runs that Verlander gave up could have easily been unearned. And thats just the last start. Great numbers Billfer- what I was thinking part of Verlander’s problem has been is that he gets behind in the count too often, but from what the numbers show, he’s throwing about 2/3 of his pitches for strikes. Maybe its a simple case of not throwing his fastball enough with runners on base, but who knows? The other problem Verlander does seem to have is the defense behind him seems horrid. Just look at his last game with Rayburn butchering a few plays in right. Doesn’t mean that Verlander was great, but I would guess that 3 or 4 of the runs that Verlander gave up could have easily been unearned. And thats just the last start.

]]> By: Russ http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115749 Russ Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:17:14 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115749 I'm still going with him being injured and not telling anyone. I called the Rogers injury a year or two ago when I saw him pitching in Seattle. So, I'm thinking going .500 ain't so bad if I'm wrong. All it takes to off-set the pitching (or batting) is one little iritation--heck, could be a blister that he thinks isn't an issue. I’m still going with him being injured and not telling anyone. I called the Rogers injury a year or two ago when I saw him pitching in Seattle. So, I’m thinking going .500 ain’t so bad if I’m wrong.

All it takes to off-set the pitching (or batting) is one little iritation–heck, could be a blister that he thinks isn’t an issue.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115747 Mark in Chicago Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:01:18 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115747 the 39.6% LOB rate is ridiculously unsustainable. You can count on that regressing to the mean. He's also got a .412 BABIP, a likewise ridiculous number that should improve as the season goes on. His peripherals are very good, evidenced by the K rate and FIP. His BB/9 is about the same as last year, but it's not disturbingly high. Verlander is pitching fine, he's been pretty unlucky through a small sample size of innings pitched. However, it would be nice to see him get a win vs. the yankees and that monkey off his back. the 39.6% LOB rate is ridiculously unsustainable. You can count on that regressing to the mean. He’s also got a .412 BABIP, a likewise ridiculous number that should improve as the season goes on.

His peripherals are very good, evidenced by the K rate and FIP. His BB/9 is about the same as last year, but it’s not disturbingly high. Verlander is pitching fine, he’s been pretty unlucky through a small sample size of innings pitched. However, it would be nice to see him get a win vs. the yankees and that monkey off his back.

]]> By: Coleman http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115741 Coleman Mon, 27 Apr 2009 07:43:25 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115741 amason: He could be the victim of bad defense, somewhat...or it could be that the Balls In Play happen to be screaming line drives and long flies into the gaps, which the stats seem to indicate is more likely. (Note: I'm looking at BABIP since that's what caught your attention but that's not to say he's not the victim of bad defense outside of BABIP numbers). If you look at the BIP vs Verlander by hit type, you find Groundball/Flyball/LineDrive ratios of 30%/44%/25%. The overall league avg breakdown is 43-38-18 and the Tiger pitcher avg is similar, 46-35-18, as is Verlander's own career avg of 41-38-20. So right away you can see his pitches are coming back airborne at a rate much higher than most pitchers. If you break down his BABIP by these 3 categories you get .211/.310/.813 vs AL avg .238/.233/.750 and DET avg .232/.171/.671. So it may be that he has been unlucky or a victim of fielding to a small degree on fly balls and line drives (although he latter seems unlikely since DET is better than avg on both accounts), and it appears he has actually been lucky/benefitting from the fielding of his ground balls. But what really stands out is how much the line drive ratio is going to affect the total BABIP, since the BA for line drives is going to be around .500 higher. And that is why Verlander's BABIP is so relatively high. amason: He could be the victim of bad defense, somewhat…or it could be that the Balls In Play happen to be screaming line drives and long flies into the gaps, which the stats seem to indicate is more likely. (Note: I’m looking at BABIP since that’s what caught your attention but that’s not to say he’s not the victim of bad defense outside of BABIP numbers).

If you look at the BIP vs Verlander by hit type, you find Groundball/Flyball/LineDrive ratios of 30%/44%/25%. The overall league avg breakdown is 43-38-18 and the Tiger pitcher avg is similar, 46-35-18, as is Verlander’s own career avg of 41-38-20. So right away you can see his pitches are coming back airborne at a rate much higher than most pitchers.

If you break down his BABIP by these 3 categories you get .211/.310/.813 vs AL avg .238/.233/.750 and DET avg .232/.171/.671. So it may be that he has been unlucky or a victim of fielding to a small degree on fly balls and line drives (although he latter seems unlikely since DET is better than avg on both accounts), and it appears he has actually been lucky/benefitting from the fielding of his ground balls.

But what really stands out is how much the line drive ratio is going to affect the total BABIP, since the BA for line drives is going to be around .500 higher. And that is why Verlander’s BABIP is so relatively high.

]]> By: Coleman http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115740 Coleman Mon, 27 Apr 2009 06:47:39 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115740 One way the small sample size be a problem is the imbalance of when and where he was pitched so far. Over his career he has done much better in day than in night games, and at first glance he doesn't seem to do well in general on the west coast. So far 3 of 4 of his starts have been night games (in LA, Seattle, and Toronto). His one day start (TX) he only gave up 1 run on 2 hits, with 4BB and 8K. The day/night difference isn't huge, but maybe something else to keep an eye on (who knows, maybe he just gets tired at night or something?). One way the small sample size be a problem is the imbalance of when and where he was pitched so far. Over his career he has done much better in day than in night games, and at first glance he doesn’t seem to do well in general on the west coast.
So far 3 of 4 of his starts have been night games (in LA, Seattle, and Toronto). His one day start (TX) he only gave up 1 run on 2 hits, with 4BB and 8K.

The day/night difference isn’t huge, but maybe something else to keep an eye on (who knows, maybe he just gets tired at night or something?).

]]> By: amason http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115738 amason Mon, 27 Apr 2009 06:37:36 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115738 He has a good FIP at 4.10 and the highest era-fip differential in the majors and his BABIP is third highest at .412 according to fangraphs. He seems really unlucky and the victim of some poor defense and this analysis(which is great by the way) suggests to me there isn't much of a problem as far as stretch vs. wind-up. Anyways I don't much about this stuff, which is the reason I let fangraphs et al tell me what to think, but I am encouraged by the high K's and relatively low walk totals so far. He has a good FIP at 4.10 and the highest era-fip differential in the majors and his BABIP is third highest at .412 according to fangraphs. He seems really unlucky and the victim of some poor defense and this analysis(which is great by the way) suggests to me there isn’t much of a problem as far as stretch vs. wind-up. Anyways I don’t much about this stuff, which is the reason I let fangraphs et al tell me what to think, but I am encouraged by the high K’s and relatively low walk totals so far.

]]> By: jud http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115734 jud Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:51:15 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115734 location ....location....location Most pitches that are getting hit are in the middle or close to the middle of the plate. He hangs that curve/slider a lot. His fastball is very very straight and he either misses by a lot or gets too much plate. I do not believe he can pitch inside for a strike. All his inside pitches are easy to read because they are balls. Big league hitters don't need anymore information than that. location ….location….location
Most pitches that are getting hit are in the middle or close to the middle of the plate. He hangs that curve/slider a lot. His fastball is very very straight and he either misses by a lot or gets too much plate. I do not believe he can pitch inside for a strike. All his inside pitches are easy to read because they are balls.

Big league hitters don’t need anymore information than that.

]]> By: Mike R http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115733 Mike R Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:31:46 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115733 I guess the next step would be to look at his 2007 and 2008 seasons from the stretch vs. windup (well, maybe not 2008 since he was probably terrible in the stretch, windup, underhand, overhand, rolling the ball like he's bowling or kicking it like Pele). I guess the next step would be to look at his 2007 and 2008 seasons from the stretch vs. windup (well, maybe not 2008 since he was probably terrible in the stretch, windup, underhand, overhand, rolling the ball like he’s bowling or kicking it like Pele).

]]> By: Coleman http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115732 Coleman Mon, 27 Apr 2009 04:55:59 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115732 @K.I.A: I suggest they take the field in their "special throwback" jerseys (nudge nudge) that happen to be very similar to Red Sox jerseys...we'll sweep. @K.I.A: I suggest they take the field in their “special throwback” jerseys (nudge nudge) that happen to be very similar to Red Sox jerseys…we’ll sweep.

]]> By: Kevin in Austin (now Dallas) http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115711 Kevin in Austin (now Dallas) Mon, 27 Apr 2009 03:32:44 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/04/whats-up-with-verlander-in-the-stretch/#comment-115711 Great work billfer, this is why I tune in here every day. Small sample size, he'll be fine tomorrow. I'm looking forward to taking a series from the Yanks. Great work billfer, this is why I tune in here every day.

Small sample size, he’ll be fine tomorrow. I’m looking forward to taking a series from the Yanks.

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