Comments on: PECOTA hates the AL Central http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:11:17 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Grim http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110931 Grim Tue, 17 Feb 2009 16:16:01 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110931 You can't look at all these rosters and tell me that there will be just a 10 win difference between the first and last place teams. While I'm sometimes dazzled by the accuracy of PECOTA in determining overall trends and even it's ability to outshine baseball writers in picking the division races, I think that it levels the playing field (pun inintended) a bit much when talking about the spread between the best and worst. You can’t look at all these rosters and tell me that there will be just a 10 win difference between the first and last place teams. While I’m sometimes dazzled by the accuracy of PECOTA in determining overall trends and even it’s ability to outshine baseball writers in picking the division races, I think that it levels the playing field (pun inintended) a bit much when talking about the spread between the best and worst.

]]> By: Chauncey http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110890 Chauncey Sun, 15 Feb 2009 18:19:22 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110890 I agree- I don't think this division will be nearly as bad as PECOTA thinks. The Tigers resemble the rest of the division- theres a lot of potential for several teams in this division to be legitimate contenders, but also a lot of potential for every team in this division to finish in last place. Every team has a ton of If's in this division, just like the Tigers, and if those questions turn out to be positives (like Willis, Verlander, Rodney, Zumaya returning to form), then the Tigers could be the favorites. We all know that the Tigers have as much talent as anyone in this division, but we also all know how that went last year. I also couldn't agree more about Cleveland- if the Tigers best starter going into the year was Cliff Lee, then I'd be expecting last place- outside of Lee and Carmona, do they even have anyone that even has a history of any success in the last 3 or 4 years in their rotation. How can a team that is going to rely on Pavano in the starting rotation be taken seriously? I know the Tigers have a lot of question marks as well, but at least they have a solid lineup and starters that have proven themselves at one time or another- Cleveland doesn't look to have either. I just have a hard time believing the wheels could come undone as bad as they did last year for the Tigers- from injuries, to under performances, to being fat and lazy, whatever- the Tigers had about everything go wrong that could go wrong last year, and yet still made a run at briefly until the bullpen collapsed entirely in July. They seem to be coming to camp with a genuinely different attitude that resembles 2006 much more than last year and its just really hard to believe stuff like what happened last year will happen to nearly that degree again. I agree- I don’t think this division will be nearly as bad as PECOTA thinks. The Tigers resemble the rest of the division- theres a lot of potential for several teams in this division to be legitimate contenders, but also a lot of potential for every team in this division to finish in last place. Every team has a ton of If’s in this division, just like the Tigers, and if those questions turn out to be positives (like Willis, Verlander, Rodney, Zumaya returning to form), then the Tigers could be the favorites. We all know that the Tigers have as much talent as anyone in this division, but we also all know how that went last year.

I also couldn’t agree more about Cleveland- if the Tigers best starter going into the year was Cliff Lee, then I’d be expecting last place- outside of Lee and Carmona, do they even have anyone that even has a history of any success in the last 3 or 4 years in their rotation. How can a team that is going to rely on Pavano in the starting rotation be taken seriously? I know the Tigers have a lot of question marks as well, but at least they have a solid lineup and starters that have proven themselves at one time or another- Cleveland doesn’t look to have either.

I just have a hard time believing the wheels could come undone as bad as they did last year for the Tigers- from injuries, to under performances, to being fat and lazy, whatever- the Tigers had about everything go wrong that could go wrong last year, and yet still made a run at briefly until the bullpen collapsed entirely in July. They seem to be coming to camp with a genuinely different attitude that resembles 2006 much more than last year and its just really hard to believe stuff like what happened last year will happen to nearly that degree again.

]]> By: Chris Y. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110887 Chris Y. Sun, 15 Feb 2009 01:58:13 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110887 I just don't see 4 sub-.500 teams in this division. This is not the NL West. I'll agree, I don't see much separation right now, and the division is up for grabs, but at least two teams will separate from the pack by mid-summer. My guess: Chicago and Detroit. Indians hang around a bit early, but weak rotation will wear down the rest of the staff. Worst year in a decade for Minny. I just don’t see 4 sub-.500 teams in this division. This is not the NL West.

I’ll agree, I don’t see much separation right now, and the division is up for grabs, but at least two teams will separate from the pack by mid-summer.

My guess: Chicago and Detroit. Indians hang around a bit early, but weak rotation will wear down the rest of the staff.

Worst year in a decade for Minny.

]]> By: Dave T. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110884 Dave T. Fri, 13 Feb 2009 20:04:20 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110884 Honestly, if the Tigers just hold their own against the teams in their own division the whole thing gets a lot closer. Tigers have done really well against the NL and the AL East and West in the past years. Take a few loses away from the Tigers and give them to the Indians, ChiSox, Twins and KC and you have a 5-way jumble for the best (and worst) team. Honestly, if the Tigers just hold their own against the teams in their own division the whole thing gets a lot closer.
Tigers have done really well against the NL and the AL East and West in the past years.
Take a few loses away from the Tigers and give them to the Indians, ChiSox, Twins and KC and you have a 5-way jumble for the best (and worst) team.

]]> By: ron http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110883 ron Fri, 13 Feb 2009 17:09:26 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110883 The division is up for grabs as opposed to last year when we were a lock. Watch out for K.C. The division is up for grabs as opposed to last year when we were a lock. Watch out for K.C.

]]> By: Mr X http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110882 Mr X Fri, 13 Feb 2009 16:03:51 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110882 I'm expecting the worst, but thinking that they can have one of the better teams in baseball. If players stay healthy and have just average career seasons, they'll be a 90 win team. They just need the players to do what they normally do when healthy. How impossible does that sound? I think some of these players owe us fans big time. Guys like Willis, Sheff, Robertson, ect are getting paid like All-Stars, so I expect them to perform significantly better than they did last year. If a guy like Cliff Lee can turn his craptacular career into gold in just a few months, I would think that someone as established as Dontrell Willis could possibly be great again. So I'm not counting him out. I hope he can be our best pitcher. He's just one of our many comeback player of the year candidates though. I know our luck, so I'm expecting the worst though. I’m expecting the worst, but thinking that they can have one of the better teams in baseball. If players stay healthy and have just average career seasons, they’ll be a 90 win team. They just need the players to do what they normally do when healthy. How impossible does that sound? I think some of these players owe us fans big time. Guys like Willis, Sheff, Robertson, ect are getting paid like All-Stars, so I expect them to perform significantly better than they did last year.
If a guy like Cliff Lee can turn his craptacular career into gold in just a few months, I would think that someone as established as Dontrell Willis could possibly be great again. So I’m not counting him out. I hope he can be our best pitcher. He’s just one of our many comeback player of the year candidates though. I know our luck, so I’m expecting the worst though.

]]> By: Dave BW http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110880 Dave BW Fri, 13 Feb 2009 05:25:30 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110880 I feel good about this team. Judging from the perceptions of other teams' fans, they'll be coming in completely under the radar -- and that's how the Tigers like to roll! I feel good about this team. Judging from the perceptions of other teams’ fans, they’ll be coming in completely under the radar — and that’s how the Tigers like to roll!

]]> By: David http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110879 David Fri, 13 Feb 2009 01:06:40 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110879 I highly doubt we will finish below .500. I HIGHLY DOUBT IT. EVEN with Leyland and Sheff sucking in their respective areas. If health isn't too much of an issue on our team (which is a sizeable IF) then we should be easy favorites even after last year If certain players who tend to get injured (Guillen/Bonderman/Zumaya) are down for most of '09 then it may not be fun... Still while looking at any other Central's roster I am not too worried and think that our team, while uninjured, is the strongest. Spring training 12 DAYS!!! I highly doubt we will finish below .500. I HIGHLY DOUBT IT.

EVEN with Leyland and Sheff sucking in their respective areas.

If health isn’t too much of an issue on our team (which is a sizeable IF) then we should be easy favorites even after last year

If certain players who tend to get injured (Guillen/Bonderman/Zumaya) are down for most of ‘09 then it may not be fun…

Still while looking at any other Central’s roster I am not too worried and think that our team, while uninjured, is the strongest.

Spring training 12 DAYS!!!

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110877 Chris in Dallas Thu, 12 Feb 2009 22:48:05 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110877 I think the Tigers will go 162-0. :-) I think the Tigers will go 162-0. :-)

]]> By: Rick G http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110876 Rick G Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:55:22 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110876 Q: Why does this have the Indians playing 163 games? A: Typo on Billfer's part, it really should be 83-79, not 84-79 Here are my OOMA projections for the AL Central: <code> MIN 86-76 CHI 84-78 CLE 78-84 DET 76-86 KAN 73-89 </code> Q: Why does this have the Indians playing 163 games?
A: Typo on Billfer’s part, it really should be 83-79, not 84-79

Here are my OOMA projections for the AL Central:

MIN 86-76
CHI 84-78
CLE 78-84
DET 76-86
KAN 73-89

]]> By: Chris http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110864 Chris Thu, 12 Feb 2009 02:08:17 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110864 It's good to see the Tigers did a lot better in '09 than they did in '08.... improvement It’s good to see the Tigers did a lot better in ‘09 than they did in ‘08…. improvement

]]> By: Greg http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110863 Greg Wed, 11 Feb 2009 22:42:48 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110863 Why does this have the Indians playing 163 games? Why does this have the Indians playing 163 games?

]]> By: Dave T. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110860 Dave T. Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:27:51 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110860 This just goes to show how winnable the division is and how with maybe a bigger splash with the free agents the Tigers could have really pulled away. Any word on Bemiel? This just goes to show how winnable the division is and how with maybe a bigger splash with the free agents the Tigers could have really pulled away.
Any word on Bemiel?

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110859 Chris in Dallas Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:26:45 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110859 greg: Maybe we should call them the Cleveland Ifs. They could finally remove the racially insensitive Chief Wahoo and replace him with a question mark. Seriously, though, I agree with your assesment. Offensively, the only guy you can count on with any degree of certainty is Sizemore. There's also no way Cliff Lee repeats his ridiculous 2008 season. greg: Maybe we should call them the Cleveland Ifs. They could finally remove the racially insensitive Chief Wahoo and replace him with a question mark. Seriously, though, I agree with your assesment. Offensively, the only guy you can count on with any degree of certainty is Sizemore. There’s also no way Cliff Lee repeats his ridiculous 2008 season.

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110855 Vince in MN Wed, 11 Feb 2009 06:22:06 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/02/pecota-hates-the-al-central/#comment-110855 I don't know that we can put much stock in these projections (at least the W-L), since it appears that the differences in quality between the two leagues isn't taken into consideration. AL is only +6 wins over NL and based on results from the last 2-3 years I think it is safe to expect it to be much higher. I can't remember off hand from last year, but it must have been at least +60 out of the 270 games played. Because of the unbalanced IL schedule this will have a major impact on the final standings in each division. The hitting and pitching projections look to be more believable. Is there a link to last year's PECOTA predictions? - it would be interesting to compare the results. I don’t know that we can put much stock in these projections (at least the W-L), since it appears that the differences in quality between the two leagues isn’t taken into consideration. AL is only +6 wins over NL and based on results from the last 2-3 years I think it is safe to expect it to be much higher. I can’t remember off hand from last year, but it must have been at least +60 out of the 270 games played. Because of the unbalanced IL schedule this will have a major impact on the final standings in each division. The hitting and pitching projections look to be more believable. Is there a link to last year’s PECOTA predictions? – it would be interesting to compare the results.

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