Comments on: Oh those intentional base on balls http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:06:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Coach Jim http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110779 Coach Jim Sun, 01 Feb 2009 14:25:08 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110779 Allow me to clarify, X. I believe it was Bill James, way back in the 80s, that defined each event as contributing to runs score. Walks contributed 0.25 runs, singles 0.35, doubles 0.59, etc. So for my managing buck, it's only worth it if the next batter has an OBP or AVG .250 less than the player you're walking. That never happens with position players, only when a lousy-hitting pitcher comes to bat. I added the 2-out stipulation, because I would only put runners on base if the next batter were to end the inning. I don't want a decent-hitting lead off batter to drive in the runners I just put on base. Lastly, I said 4th inning or before, because I wouldn't walk a batter and have the other team pinch-hit for the pitcher. I think setting up a DP is just not worth it. Double plays happen less than 5% of the plays, but walks contribute to scoring 25% of the time. Therefore, I only issue IBB in the situation I defined here (playing MLB simulation games). It's fine if everyone has different opinions, I just wanted to explain how I arrived at this particular strategy. Allow me to clarify, X. I believe it was Bill James, way back in the 80s, that defined each event as contributing to runs score. Walks contributed 0.25 runs, singles 0.35, doubles 0.59, etc. So for my managing buck, it’s only worth it if the next batter has an OBP or AVG .250 less than the player you’re walking. That never happens with position players, only when a lousy-hitting pitcher comes to bat. I added the 2-out stipulation, because I would only put runners on base if the next batter were to end the inning. I don’t want a decent-hitting lead off batter to drive in the runners I just put on base. Lastly, I said 4th inning or before, because I wouldn’t walk a batter and have the other team pinch-hit for the pitcher.

I think setting up a DP is just not worth it. Double plays happen less than 5% of the plays, but walks contribute to scoring 25% of the time.

Therefore, I only issue IBB in the situation I defined here (playing MLB simulation games). It’s fine if everyone has different opinions, I just wanted to explain how I arrived at this particular strategy.

]]> By: Mr X http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110777 Mr X Sun, 01 Feb 2009 05:52:50 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110777 "The only time an IBB makes sense is with 2 outs, runners on base, in the 4th inning or before, with the PITCHER on deck. That doesn’t happen much in AL." IBB make even less sense when there are 2 outs. The perfect reason to intentionally walk a hitter is if the go ahead run is on base, while 1st base is open. Sometimes it's about setting up a double play or pulling the infield in for a force out at the plate. Odds always favor that the pitcher gets an out. It's not like we had a goto pitcher for tight games either. We had mop up guys cleaning up messes for our mop up guys. Those mop up guys were pitching in key situations almost every game. We had a pen full of choke artists and the Tigers probably had more blown leads than any other team. Anything Leyland tried didn't work and the lousy Defense made matters worse. “The only time an IBB makes sense is with 2 outs, runners on base, in the 4th inning or before, with the PITCHER on deck. That doesn’t happen much in AL.”

IBB make even less sense when there are 2 outs. The perfect reason to intentionally walk a hitter is if the go ahead run is on base, while 1st base is open. Sometimes it’s about setting up a double play or pulling the infield in for a force out at the plate. Odds always favor that the pitcher gets an out.

It’s not like we had a goto pitcher for tight games either. We had mop up guys cleaning up messes for our mop up guys. Those mop up guys were pitching in key situations almost every game. We had a pen full of choke artists and the Tigers probably had more blown leads than any other team. Anything Leyland tried didn’t work and the lousy Defense made matters worse.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110774 Mark in Chicago Fri, 30 Jan 2009 22:26:57 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110774 Ken, that sounds positively painful and entirely unpleasant. You are due for some good karma, so you should get better lines, like you said. There's a fortune to be made, just gotta figure out how. Ken, that sounds positively painful and entirely unpleasant. You are due for some good karma, so you should get better lines, like you said. There’s a fortune to be made, just gotta figure out how.

]]> By: Coach Jim http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110773 Coach Jim Fri, 30 Jan 2009 22:16:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110773 Chris in Nash, Leyland probably DID order tons of "pitch arounds" too...explaining the high overall walk total. I pointed this out a week or two ago, look at the 2006 stats vs. 2008. Almost every pitcher walked fewer than average in '06 but more than average in '08. The only time an IBB makes sense is with 2 outs, runners on base, in the 4th inning or before, with the PITCHER on deck. That doesn't happen much in AL. Chris in Nash, Leyland probably DID order tons of “pitch arounds” too…explaining the high overall walk total. I pointed this out a week or two ago, look at the 2006 stats vs. 2008. Almost every pitcher walked fewer than average in ’06 but more than average in ’08.

The only time an IBB makes sense is with 2 outs, runners on base, in the 4th inning or before, with the PITCHER on deck. That doesn’t happen much in AL.

]]> By: Eric Cioe http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110772 Eric Cioe Fri, 30 Jan 2009 21:56:31 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110772 Why did they give AJ so many IBBs? Why not just throw at his head if you want him on base? Why did they give AJ so many IBBs? Why not just throw at his head if you want him on base?

]]> By: Ken in Vegas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110771 Ken in Vegas Fri, 30 Jan 2009 20:28:54 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110771 Mark, Are you telling me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, for some reason I just can't put money down on futures bets. I need that instant gratification. It's probably the same reason I haven't ever put money into CDs. You can count on this though. I will bet on just about every third game or so during the season. I can't help it. They killed me last year though, because for the first half of the season, everybody thought we were going to wake up any second, so we were often the favorite despite an awful record. Hopefully, Vegas won't be so high on us this year, so I can get some decent money lines. Mark,

Are you telling me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, for some reason I just can’t put money down on futures bets. I need that instant gratification. It’s probably the same reason I haven’t ever put money into CDs.

You can count on this though. I will bet on just about every third game or so during the season. I can’t help it. They killed me last year though, because for the first half of the season, everybody thought we were going to wake up any second, so we were often the favorite despite an awful record. Hopefully, Vegas won’t be so high on us this year, so I can get some decent money lines.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110770 Mark in Chicago Fri, 30 Jan 2009 20:24:10 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110770 Ken, I am certain you can get some decent odds on that call. Why not throw some money down on the Tigers to win the Central? You're in the right place... (it's totally a good thing I don't live in Vegas, I'd be broke, hungry, and then dead in a matter of a few days - a week tops.) Incidentally, I couldn't find a line on the Tigers to win the Central, but found out they are 26-1 to win the World Series, which isn't great. Cleveland at 22-1 is probably a better bet. Ken,

I am certain you can get some decent odds on that call. Why not throw some money down on the Tigers to win the Central? You’re in the right place… (it’s totally a good thing I don’t live in Vegas, I’d be broke, hungry, and then dead in a matter of a few days – a week tops.)

Incidentally, I couldn’t find a line on the Tigers to win the Central, but found out they are 26-1 to win the World Series, which isn’t great. Cleveland at 22-1 is probably a better bet.

]]> By: Ken in Vegas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110769 Ken in Vegas Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:59:19 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110769 I also think that I am going to hit a progressive slot jackpot of $1.2 million. I also think that I am going to hit a progressive slot jackpot of $1.2 million.

]]> By: Ken in Vegas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110768 Ken in Vegas Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:57:25 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110768 I don't know exactly why, but I just have a good feeling about this year. If our expectations are to be a .500 ball club, I think we will overperform. Improved defense, improved pen, and depth at starting pitcher. Between Inge, Sheff, EJack, and Willis, 1 or maybe even 2 of them are going to have a comeback year. Verlander and Bondo will not disappoint. I think we're going to get our Mojo back. I don’t know exactly why, but I just have a good feeling about this year. If our expectations are to be a .500 ball club, I think we will overperform. Improved defense, improved pen, and depth at starting pitcher. Between Inge, Sheff, EJack, and Willis, 1 or maybe even 2 of them are going to have a comeback year. Verlander and Bondo will not disappoint. I think we’re going to get our Mojo back.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110767 Mark in Chicago Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:30:20 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110767 My sense is that Chuck Hernandez was getting everyone to develop a 2-seamer, and then encouraging guys to pitch to contact to keep the pitch count down. Leyland took that another step further and relied on his guys too often to get a ground ball in a given situation. Hence, put a guy on, then get a ground ball. This is also why Leyland likes Miner coming out of the bullpen, IMO. He wants him to bust off a good sinker and get a ground ball. Should be interesting to see how Jimmuh handles the pen this year, there is clearly a different mindset with the emphasis on throwing strikes. My sense is that Chuck Hernandez was getting everyone to develop a 2-seamer, and then encouraging guys to pitch to contact to keep the pitch count down. Leyland took that another step further and relied on his guys too often to get a ground ball in a given situation. Hence, put a guy on, then get a ground ball. This is also why Leyland likes Miner coming out of the bullpen, IMO. He wants him to bust off a good sinker and get a ground ball.

Should be interesting to see how Jimmuh handles the pen this year, there is clearly a different mindset with the emphasis on throwing strikes.

]]> By: Chris in Nashville http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110766 Chris in Nashville Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:33:29 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110766 I would rather see the Tigers try to pitch around more guys than just issuing the IBB. Give the guy a chance to swing and miss or the pitcher to throw one on the corner at the knees. If you miss 4 straight times, what's the difference? At least you have a chance to get the guy out. Couple the IBB's with the general wildness of our staff and you are asking for trouble. There are definitely situations to issue the IBB, but not as much as Leyland did last year. These numbers are shocking. I would rather see the Tigers try to pitch around more guys than just issuing the IBB. Give the guy a chance to swing and miss or the pitcher to throw one on the corner at the knees. If you miss 4 straight times, what’s the difference? At least you have a chance to get the guy out. Couple the IBB’s with the general wildness of our staff and you are asking for trouble. There are definitely situations to issue the IBB, but not as much as Leyland did last year. These numbers are shocking.

]]> By: Jen http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110765 Jen Fri, 30 Jan 2009 15:08:29 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110765 I get so irked at IBB. I hope it was just a fluke that Leyland issued so many. Hope he's a reader of your blog, so he can see how it doesn't work out well! I get so irked at IBB. I hope it was just a fluke that Leyland issued so many. Hope he’s a reader of your blog, so he can see how it doesn’t work out well!

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110763 Vince in MN Fri, 30 Jan 2009 07:30:16 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/oh-those-intentional-base-on-balls/#comment-110763 Intentionally walking boatloads of batters when the pitcher is surrounded by lead-booted infielders doesn't make a lot of sense either. Or maybe it can just be chalked up to those seemingly countless situations where Leyland was forced to try something "drastic". Intentionally walking boatloads of batters when the pitcher is surrounded by lead-booted infielders doesn’t make a lot of sense either. Or maybe it can just be chalked up to those seemingly countless situations where Leyland was forced to try something “drastic”.

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