Comments on: Like sands through the hourglass http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:11:17 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: ryan http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110590 ryan Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:58:13 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110590 Apologies for being off topic, but Jon Heyman is reporting the following signings: Laird - $2.8 mil Edwin - $2.2 mil Seay - $1.3 mill Zumaya - $0.735 mil Everybody but Verlander is signed now, I believe. A sign that a multi-year contract is being worked out? Apologies for being off topic, but Jon Heyman is reporting the following signings:

Laird – $2.8 mil
Edwin – $2.2 mil
Seay – $1.3 mill
Zumaya – $0.735 mil

Everybody but Verlander is signed now, I believe. A sign that a multi-year contract is being worked out?

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110588 Vince in MN Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:12:59 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110588 Hopefully Mr X is correct and the entire staff, and not just Robertson, are working on flexibility this winter, and will show up to camp in the best condition of their careers. Hopefully Mr X is correct and the entire staff, and not just Robertson, are working on flexibility this winter, and will show up to camp in the best condition of their careers.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110586 Chris in Dallas Tue, 20 Jan 2009 19:29:05 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110586 I've got every reason to believe Verlander (provided health) bounces back and puts up 15 or so wins and an ERA below 4. In 2008 a couple of things stand out. The first being lack of command (as evidenced by his 3.90 BB/9, up from 2.99). If he gets back to throwing more strikes, he'll be OK. He was kinda unlucky in that he posted a .305 BABiP. Otherwise, he gave up fewer line drives than he ever has (17.7%) while reducing the # of HR he's given up for the third straight year. He lost some velo (injury?), but not a terribly alarming amount - an average of 93.6 vs. 94.8 the previous year. All signs point to a bounceback if he's healthy. I’ve got every reason to believe Verlander (provided health) bounces back and puts up 15 or so wins and an ERA below 4. In 2008 a couple of things stand out. The first being lack of command (as evidenced by his 3.90 BB/9, up from 2.99). If he gets back to throwing more strikes, he’ll be OK. He was kinda unlucky in that he posted a .305 BABiP. Otherwise, he gave up fewer line drives than he ever has (17.7%) while reducing the # of HR he’s given up for the third straight year. He lost some velo (injury?), but not a terribly alarming amount – an average of 93.6 vs. 94.8 the previous year. All signs point to a bounceback if he’s healthy.

]]> By: Polancofan http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110579 Polancofan Tue, 20 Jan 2009 11:09:10 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110579 The reality is that Verlanders 2006 and 2007 season were the lucky years and he actually was just a tad unlucky in 2008. His fielding independent ERA over the 3 years was about the same. 2006 4.35 FIP ERA, 2007 3.99 FIP ERA, 2008 4.18 FIP ERA. This shows that the Tigers good defense in 2006 and 2007 had alot to do with Verlanders good performace. Almost all his other peripheral stats are inline form year to year with the excetion of 1, his Walk Rate. in 2006 and 2007 his walk rates were 2.90 BB/9 and 2.99 BB/9 respectively. In 2008 that rate ballooned to 3.90 BB/9. he issused a full walk more per 9 innings in 2008. Some of this was jsut form loss of control in the early season. There is one more reason for Verlanders poor performance in 2008, and it is him losing speed on his fastball while at the same time throwing his offspeed pitches faster. There is a very good article on fangraphs talking about Verlander and his loss of velocity. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/justin-verlander-ace-or-merely-above-average The reality is that Verlanders 2006 and 2007 season were the lucky years and he actually was just a tad unlucky in 2008. His fielding independent ERA over the 3 years was about the same. 2006 4.35 FIP ERA, 2007 3.99 FIP ERA, 2008 4.18 FIP ERA. This shows that the Tigers good defense in 2006 and 2007 had alot to do with Verlanders good performace. Almost all his other peripheral stats are inline form year to year with the excetion of 1, his Walk Rate. in 2006 and 2007 his walk rates were 2.90 BB/9 and 2.99 BB/9 respectively. In 2008 that rate ballooned to 3.90 BB/9. he issused a full walk more per 9 innings in 2008. Some of this was jsut form loss of control in the early season.

There is one more reason for Verlanders poor performance in 2008, and it is him losing speed on his fastball while at the same time throwing his offspeed pitches faster.

There is a very good article on fangraphs talking about Verlander and his loss of velocity.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanta.....ve-average

]]> By: Mr X http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110572 Mr X Tue, 20 Jan 2009 01:46:23 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110572 For the $17 million that we are paying him, his health tells us how serious he is about pitching at higher level for Tigers. If you read the article, he worked on his flexibility more than anything else. Hopefully, Verlander and the rest are on a similar program. Nothing I hate more than out of shape players, like Renteria or Rodney from last season. For the $17 million that we are paying him, his health tells us how serious he is about pitching at higher level for Tigers. If you read the article, he worked on his flexibility more than anything else. Hopefully, Verlander and the rest are on a similar program. Nothing I hate more than out of shape players, like Renteria or Rodney from last season.

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110571 Vince in MN Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:49:14 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110571 Every year you hear about players coming to camp "in the best shape of their career", after which many of them fall completely on their face. I don't really care what kind of shape Mr. Robertson is in, it's his pitching that I want to be "in shape". Every year you hear about players coming to camp “in the best shape of their career”, after which many of them fall completely on their face. I don’t really care what kind of shape Mr. Robertson is in, it’s his pitching that I want to be “in shape”.

]]> By: Mr X http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110570 Mr X Mon, 19 Jan 2009 21:32:30 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110570 Hmm, so Nate Robertson is now in the best shape of his life? Let's hope so. http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2009/01/tigers_nate_robertson_in_best.html Hmm, so Nate Robertson is now in the best shape of his life? Let’s hope so.

http://www.mlive.com/tigers/in....._best.html

]]> By: Yu-Hsing Chen From Taiwan http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110567 Yu-Hsing Chen From Taiwan Mon, 19 Jan 2009 07:50:19 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110567 Verlander's 08 season probably had a ton to do with him being one of the most abused young pitcher in 06-07 . I think he'll probably bounce back some, but wether it's to his 06-07 ish level I'm not sure. Verlander’s 08 season probably had a ton to do with him being one of the most abused young pitcher in 06-07 .

I think he’ll probably bounce back some, but wether it’s to his 06-07 ish level I’m not sure.

]]> By: Coach Jim http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110565 Coach Jim Sun, 18 Jan 2009 22:30:20 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110565 I wonder if we'll ever see 100mph from him again. It was odd seeing a 92mph, very Jonesy-like fastball from him. I wonder if we’ll ever see 100mph from him again. It was odd seeing a 92mph, very Jonesy-like fastball from him.

]]> By: Mr X http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110562 Mr X Sun, 18 Jan 2009 02:33:08 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110562 Verlander can be one of the best pitchers in the game. When he's got it, he's unhittable. His no hitter was no fluke. Verlander can be one of the best pitchers in the game. When he’s got it, he’s unhittable. His no hitter was no fluke.

]]> By: Coach Jim http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110560 Coach Jim Sat, 17 Jan 2009 17:29:55 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110560 Chris Y, yes, compared to 07 his stats are down, especially the ones I offered. I was simply trying to show that on a batter-by-batter basis he almost mirrored his 06 performance - and we thought that was pretty darn good. Sandy, mention Toronto pitchers and I'm all ears. B.J. Ryan is just the biggest name. Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Brandon League, Brian Wolfe, Shawn Camp would all make terrific additions. Maybe the key member of that pitching staff is the coach! Chris Y, yes, compared to 07 his stats are down, especially the ones I offered. I was simply trying to show that on a batter-by-batter basis he almost mirrored his 06 performance – and we thought that was pretty darn good.

Sandy, mention Toronto pitchers and I’m all ears. B.J. Ryan is just the biggest name. Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Brandon League, Brian Wolfe, Shawn Camp would all make terrific additions. Maybe the key member of that pitching staff is the coach!

]]> By: Chris Y. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110551 Chris Y. Sat, 17 Jan 2009 01:40:22 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110551 Verlander was not the same. His 07 numbers were far superior to 08. Seriously. So a "bounce back" would be a return to pre-08 numbers. Even 06 was superior, given he was a rook and his base stats are far better (ERA, ERA+, WHIP)....even if the 06 team was a contender while the 08 team was a huge flop. 08 was a "down" year for Verlander. Radar gun or no radar gun. Verlander was not the same. His 07 numbers were far superior to 08. Seriously. So a “bounce back” would be a return to pre-08 numbers. Even 06 was superior, given he was a rook and his base stats are far better (ERA, ERA+, WHIP)….even if the 06 team was a contender while the 08 team was a huge flop.

08 was a “down” year for Verlander. Radar gun or no radar gun.

]]> By: sandy http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110550 sandy Sat, 17 Jan 2009 00:54:30 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110550 What about the Jays" B.J. Ryan. If the Jays are in a rebuilding phase, they have no need for a premiere closer. Probably looking for payroll relief, or a good shortstop or 3b prospect. Just off TJ surgery from the previous year, he saved 32 games. What about the Jays” B.J. Ryan. If the Jays are in a rebuilding phase, they have no need for a premiere closer. Probably looking for payroll relief, or a good shortstop or 3b prospect.

Just off TJ surgery from the previous year, he saved 32 games.

]]> By: Coach Jim http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110549 Coach Jim Sat, 17 Jan 2009 00:13:41 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110549 If you think Rodney's walks were infuriating, wait until you get a load of Cruz. He walked 14.4% of the batters he faced in 2008, far more than the 9% league average. He's in a class with Joel and Fernando. Scott, why would claim Verlander should bounce back? His ERA and W/L were off, but actually I think luck contributed to this. For example, in 2006, 24.1% of batters faced got hits, where as in 2008 only 22.2% got hits. His control was off by a small margin. In 2006 he walked 7.7%; in 2008 he walked 9.9%. However, combine those and you'll find in 2006 31.8% of the batters he faced reached base, when in 2008 32.0% reached base. That makes a difference of less than 2 batters over an entire season. I think he was much the same. I guess it just matters which stats you like to guage performance. I hope it's not a radar gun. If you think Rodney’s walks were infuriating, wait until you get a load of Cruz. He walked 14.4% of the batters he faced in 2008, far more than the 9% league average. He’s in a class with Joel and Fernando.

Scott, why would claim Verlander should bounce back? His ERA and W/L were off, but actually I think luck contributed to this. For example, in 2006, 24.1% of batters faced got hits, where as in 2008 only 22.2% got hits. His control was off by a small margin. In 2006 he walked 7.7%; in 2008 he walked 9.9%. However, combine those and you’ll find in 2006 31.8% of the batters he faced reached base, when in 2008 32.0% reached base. That makes a difference of less than 2 batters over an entire season. I think he was much the same. I guess it just matters which stats you like to guage performance. I hope it’s not a radar gun.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/01/like-sands-through-the-hourglass/#comment-110545 Chris in Dallas Fri, 16 Jan 2009 23:01:51 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/?p=3748#comment-110545 Considering how well Dombrowski typically drafts, I'd rather they keep the picks. The value of a draft pick is more than just a potential contribution at the major league level. A talented young player will give a team cost certainty prior to their arbitration years, or they can help add value to the big club via trade. It's much easier to trade a prospect and get something in return than it is to trade Brandon Inge's contract. Considering how well Dombrowski typically drafts, I’d rather they keep the picks. The value of a draft pick is more than just a potential contribution at the major league level. A talented young player will give a team cost certainty prior to their arbitration years, or they can help add value to the big club via trade. It’s much easier to trade a prospect and get something in return than it is to trade Brandon Inge’s contract.

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