I do think Porcello’s strikeouts would’ve been better with his curveball. Would they be at an elite level? i’m not positive they would be.

@ Mark:
Good point about starts made after May 30th. That doesn’t change my feelings on it, but that would make it just a bit easier to absorb.

@ Chris:

I’ll have to find the link, but there was an article that talked to Porcello where he said himself that the scouts blew up his velocity. He absolutely can sit around 95, but he throws a 2-seamer as his main fastball which is in the 90-92 range. This is also the reason for his massive GB rates, as the 2-seamer give the more sink than his 4-seamer. He said it’s just something he feels comfortable doing and that he’s fine with letting his teammates turn GB’s into outs but knows that he’ll have to dial up a K from time to time and that his 4-seamer or breaking ball are great out pitches.

@ Chris again:

Verlander has great stuff, but that doesn’t translate to K’s. My previous paragraph on Porcello I think hits on what I think the reason for low K rates were caused by: his comfort in getting GB’s and keeping his pitch counts down. I would obviously rather have him K a lot of guys, but if he’s going to let the ball be put in play, getting it on the ground is the best option he can choose. I think next year he’ll strikeout something like 18-20% of the batters he faces with something around 50-53% GB rates with most of that work coming in Erie. If he’s in Detroit then, I would look for him to post more numbers like his High-A stint: Low K’s, very good GB rates as great, hard, sinking 2-seamers play at all levels of baseball.

Also, I doubt it’s something ‘organizational.’ Maybe I’m mis-interpreting your statements, but that makes it sound like you think the Tigers are requesting these guys not K batters or something of that ilk. I don’t think that Bondo’s strikeout abilities stem from him being in Oakland’s system, either.

It’s not a done deal yet, though. Here’s the scoop: http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.....38;c_id=sf

Perhaps I got a bit too excited. I was not advocating for him to be called up right away, nor was I saying that he should not have to “earn” his job. Basically, I just like the thought of him in the rotation more than Robertson or some of the minor league fodder that has a chance to be there.

Unless he has an absolutly stunning ST against REAL MLBers, I would hope that he would open in A (or possibly AA) and then get bumped aggressively (if warranted). I realize that he also needs to build up his arm strength as this past year was probably twice as long as what he is used to.

Also, I was not basing my statement that he would have been better if he had his curve on anything other than my own feelings (while I embrace some aspects of SABR stuff – I still go by the gut feelings too).

I absolutely understand that and I am a stats-based guy even when it comes to minor leaguers (once you get a feel for what kind of qualifications you can put on a kid and his successes/struggles due to parks, age, etc etc), but I’m not ready to put A TON of stock into those numbers from Hamilton. He’s a project, no doubt, but he’s got arguably the highest upside of any kid in the system not named Rick Porcello — I like him more than Casey Crosby. At least Hamilton’s curve can flash as an average pitch at times, where as Crosby’s at Lefty with a heater and Tommy John Surgery already. For me (and I know this will come across as rude, but you obviously know I don’t mean it like that), I don’t get how one can rank Crosby ahead of Hamilton at all. That seems kind of fool-hearty at this point in the game.

@ The Rick Porcello in Detroit Talk:

Rick Porcello NEEDS to miss more bats. Yes, he did not throw his best breaking pitch (curve) most or all of the year in an attempt to work on his slider and change up. Yes, he got massive amounts of ground balls.

But, I point to another big, RHP with elite level ground ball tendencies who also had his best pitch (curveball) taken from him in Low-A ball in 2007: Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics property.

Rick Porcello’s 2008 in High-A Lakeland at age 19: 125 IP, 527 TBF, 116 H, 16 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR allowed, 72 K, 33 BB, 3.84 FIP, 3.44 base runs per 9 innings (all from firstinning.com). That equates out to 13.7% Strikeout %, 6.3 BB%, and 65% Ground ball rates.

Trevor Cahill’s 2007 in Low-A Kane County:

105.1 IP, 437 TBF, 85 H, 15 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR allowed, 117 K, 40 BB, 2.87 FIP, 2.91 BsRns/9. That equates out to 26.8% K %, 9.2% BB rate, 59% GB rate.

Now, qualifiers: yes, Cahill was 19 and in Low-A where as Porcello was 19 and in High-A. That said, both had their best strikeout pitches taken from them, both got above-average/elite ground ball rates from these kids on the basis of their heavy, hard fastballs. Even if you give Cahill a knock down and Porcello a bump up for their ages relative to their levels, Cahill’s performance still shows that getting a breaking pitch taken from you while in A-Ball should not mean you post anemic strikeout rates. I do realize that I’m comparing Porcello to one of the preeminent pitching prospects in baseball today, but I don’t feel that is unfair for a kid called the best prep pitcher in the 2007 draft.

In short, Porcello should probably open in High-A Lakeland for the first month (until the weather warms up and he can move to Erie … I personally would have him in Lakeland longer for his development, but the Tigers won’t be doing that), and he needs to impress when he gets his curveball back. Cahill DOMINATED High-A Stockton (hitters league) and Double-A Midland (hitters league) where as Porcello will be coming up through the Florida State League (pitchers league) and then the Eastern League which I believe is a pitchers league but might be closer to neutral, but that’s just off the top of my head.

Porcello is, in my mind, not deserving of, nor close to, contributing at a level in which starting his arbitration clock would be a wise thing. I am happy to revisit this come July or thereabouts, but maybe a Sept. call-up is all that I’m looking for from him. Other than that, he needs to prove to me that he can reach league average K-rates before I and comfortable even giving him a back-of-the-rotation spot and starting his arbitration clock.

I was wondering…do you plan on doing any interview(s) this off season with Tigers players (major or minor league) and/or broadcasters/front office guys?

Plus how have you gotten interviews in the past? Email?