Defensive Projections

Chone Smith has compiled defensive projections for the 2009 season. He’s used 5 years of data (combination of Stats Zone Rating, Revised Zone Rating, and Total Zone), and weighted it such that the most current season receives the most weight. He also regresses the results and uses the Fans Scouting Report. The more data available the less regression, and when data is scarce the scouting report carries more weight.

Cherry-picking out the Tigers (the numbers represent runs/150 games):


  • Granderson: 13
  • Ordonez: -4
  • Joyce: (Corner) 7, (Center) -1
  • Thames: -5
  • Guillen: -3
  • Raburn (Corner) 4, (Center) -4


  • Inge: (3B) 10
  • Renteria: (SS) -6
  • Polanco: (2B) 9
  • Cabrera: (1B) -1
  • Santiago: (SS) -1, (2B) 1
  • Guillen: (3B) 0, (1B) 5

Now there’s a good chance Renteria isn’t back next year, so some shortstop free agents:

  • Orlando Cabrera: 1
  • Eckstein: -3
  • Everett: 19

Adam  Everett could be in a pretty steep defensive decline and even being +2 wins with his glove, his bat is so bad it probably can’t overcome it.  It’s not a great group that is out there, and one more year of Renteria if he can come cheaply might not be a bad bet.

1 Comment

  1. David

    October 27, 2008 at 11:17 pm

    No more Rentariyaaaaa

    even if he comes cheap…though like you said I agree I highly doubt they will want to bring him back

    We’ve got to wait and see

    Big acquisitions in the previous 3 years

    Migs and Dtrain last year and Shef the year before and Rogers/Jones the year before etc.

    I’m personally hoping they can get Furcal