Comments on: Game 144: A’s at Tigers http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:11:17 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105606 Smoking Loon Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:16:12 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105606 If the average AL team scores 4.76 runs per game, then the average game would be one where 9-10 runs score in all. I have a hunch - just a hunch - that contenders tend to play in more of these average games than non-contenders. Just for fun, here are the 21 "AL average" Tigers games: 1 Mon, Mar 31 DET KCR L 4-5 (11) 8 Wed, Apr 9 DET @BOS W 7-2 23 Thu, Apr 24 DET TEX W 8-2 25 Sat, Apr 26 DET LAA W 6-4 27 Tue, Apr 29 DET @NYY W 6-4 33 Mon, May 5 DET BOS L 3-6 58 Tue, Jun 3 DET @OAK L 4-5 (11) 63 Mon, Jun 9 DET CLE L 2-8 64 Tue, Jun 10 DET CHW W 6-4 69 Sun, Jun 15 DET LAD W 5-4 72 Wed, Jun 18 DET @SFG W 7-2 82 Mon, Jun 30 DET @MIN W 5-4 83 Tue, Jul 1 DET @MIN L 4-6 104 Sun, Jul 27 DET CHW W 6-4 118 Mon, Aug 11 DET TOR L 2-7 119 Tue, Aug 12 DET TOR L 4-6 127 Wed, Aug 20 DET @TEX L 1-9 130 Sun, Aug 24 DET @KCR L 3-7 134 Fri, Aug 29 DET KCR W 6-3 138 Tue, Sep 2 DET LAA L 4-5 142 Sat, Sep 6 DET @MIN W 6-4 The Tigers were 11-10 in these games (.524 versus .476 otherwise). 5 (five) 6-4 wins vs. only 2 (two) 4-6 losses. If the average AL team scores 4.76 runs per game, then the average game would be one where 9-10 runs score in all. I have a hunch – just a hunch – that contenders tend to play in more of these average games than non-contenders.

Just for fun, here are the 21 “AL average” Tigers games:

1 Mon, Mar 31 DET KCR L 4-5 (11)
8 Wed, Apr 9 DET @BOS W 7-2
23 Thu, Apr 24 DET TEX W 8-2
25 Sat, Apr 26 DET LAA W 6-4
27 Tue, Apr 29 DET @NYY W 6-4
33 Mon, May 5 DET BOS L 3-6
58 Tue, Jun 3 DET @OAK L 4-5 (11)
63 Mon, Jun 9 DET CLE L 2-8
64 Tue, Jun 10 DET CHW W 6-4
69 Sun, Jun 15 DET LAD W 5-4
72 Wed, Jun 18 DET @SFG W 7-2
82 Mon, Jun 30 DET @MIN W 5-4
83 Tue, Jul 1 DET @MIN L 4-6
104 Sun, Jul 27 DET CHW W 6-4
118 Mon, Aug 11 DET TOR L 2-7
119 Tue, Aug 12 DET TOR L 4-6
127 Wed, Aug 20 DET @TEX L 1-9
130 Sun, Aug 24 DET @KCR L 3-7
134 Fri, Aug 29 DET KCR W 6-3
138 Tue, Sep 2 DET LAA L 4-5
142 Sat, Sep 6 DET @MIN W 6-4

The Tigers were 11-10 in these games (.524 versus .476 otherwise). 5 (five) 6-4 wins vs. only 2 (two) 4-6 losses.

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105604 Smoking Loon Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:29:28 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105604 The AL average for runs allowed is 4.76 per game. So let's call allowing 4 or 5 runs average pitching, and see how the Tigers fared in games where the pitching was average. Game #/Teams/Result/Tigers record/Pitchers of record 1 DET KCR L 4-5 (11) 0-1 L Nunez D Bautista 2 DET KCR L 0-4 0-2 B Bannister K Rogers 3 DET KCR L 1-4 0-3 Z Greinke J Bonderman 5 DET CHW L 3-5 0-5 G Floyd Z Miner 7 DET @BOS L 0-5 0-7 D Matsuzaka K Rogers 14 DET MIN W 6-5 4-10 C Rapada J Crain 17 DET @TOR W 8-4 6-11 K Rogers J Accardo 19 DET @TOR L 3-5 6-13 A Burnett N Robertson 24 DET LAA L 3-4 10-14 E Santana N Robertson 25 DET LAA W 6-4 11-14 A Lopez D O'Day 27 DET @NYY W 6-4 12-15 K Rogers P Hughes 29 DET @NYY W 8-4 14-15 N Robertson J Albaladejo 31 DET @MIN L 1-4 14-17 B Bass J Verlander 34 DET BOS L 0-5 14-20 T Wakefield N Robertson 36 DET BOS L 1-5 15-21 J Beckett J Verlander 37 DET NYY W 6-5 16-21 K Rogers K Igawa 38 DET NYY L 2-5 16-22 D Rasner J Bonderman 42 DET @ARI L 3-4 16-26 D Haren Z Miner 44 DET @ARI L 0-4 17-27 R Johnson N Robertson 46 DET SEA W 9-4 19-27 K Rogers J Washburn 54 DET @SEA W 7-4 23-3 N Robertson C Silva 55 DET @SEA L 0-5 23-32 F Hernandez J Verlander 56 DET @SEA W 7-5 24-32 Z Miner J Putz 58 DET @OAK L 4-5 (11) 24-34 C Gaudin B Seay 60 DET CLE L 2-4 24-36 P Byrd J Verlander 61 DET CLE W 8-4 25-36 Z Miner M Kobayashi 64 DET CHW W 6-4 27-37 N Robertson J Contreras 69 DET LAD W 5-4 32-37 N Robertson C Park 74 DET @SDP W 7-5 35-39 N Robertson C Baek 82 DET @MIN W 5-4 42-40 C Fossum M Guerrier 85 DET @SEA W 8-4 43-42 J Verlander C Silva 86 DET @SEA L 1-4 43-43 E Bedard K Rogers 95 DET @BAL W 6-5 48-47 K Rogers G Olson 99 DET @KCR W 19-4 50-49 Z Miner L Hochevar 104 DET CHW W 6-4 53-51 Z Miner J Vazquez 105 DET @CLE L 0-5 53-52 P Byrd K Rogers 106 DET @CLE W 8-5 54-52 A Galarraga M Ginter 109 DET @TBR L 2-5 55-54 G Balfour Z Miner 113 DET @CHW L 1-5 55-58 J Danks J Verlander 115 DET OAK L 2-4 56-59 D Braden K Rogers 120 DET TOR L 3-4 58-62 D Purcey K Rogers 131 DET CLE L 3-4 (10) 64-67 B Donnelly G Glover 138 DET LAA L 4-5 66-72 S Shields F Rodney 142 DET @MIN W 6-4 68-74 C Rapada M Guerrier 143 DET @MIN W 7-5 69-74 C Lambert G Perkins The Tigers are 21-24 in these games. 197 runs scored (4.37/G, would rank 11th in AL) versus 200 runs allowed (4.44/G, would rank 7th in AL). The AL average for runs allowed is 4.76 per game. So let’s call allowing 4 or 5 runs average pitching, and see how the Tigers fared in games where the pitching was average.

Game #/Teams/Result/Tigers record/Pitchers of record

1 DET KCR L 4-5 (11) 0-1 L Nunez D Bautista
2 DET KCR L 0-4 0-2 B Bannister K Rogers
3 DET KCR L 1-4 0-3 Z Greinke J Bonderman
5 DET CHW L 3-5 0-5 G Floyd Z Miner
7 DET @BOS L 0-5 0-7 D Matsuzaka K Rogers
14 DET MIN W 6-5 4-10 C Rapada J Crain
17 DET @TOR W 8-4 6-11 K Rogers J Accardo
19 DET @TOR L 3-5 6-13 A Burnett N Robertson
24 DET LAA L 3-4 10-14 E Santana N Robertson
25 DET LAA W 6-4 11-14 A Lopez D O’Day
27 DET @NYY W 6-4 12-15 K Rogers P Hughes
29 DET @NYY W 8-4 14-15 N Robertson J Albaladejo
31 DET @MIN L 1-4 14-17 B Bass J Verlander
34 DET BOS L 0-5 14-20 T Wakefield N Robertson
36 DET BOS L 1-5 15-21 J Beckett J Verlander
37 DET NYY W 6-5 16-21 K Rogers K Igawa
38 DET NYY L 2-5 16-22 D Rasner J Bonderman
42 DET @ARI L 3-4 16-26 D Haren Z Miner
44 DET @ARI L 0-4 17-27 R Johnson N Robertson
46 DET SEA W 9-4 19-27 K Rogers J Washburn
54 DET @SEA W 7-4 23-3 N Robertson C Silva
55 DET @SEA L 0-5 23-32 F Hernandez J Verlander
56 DET @SEA W 7-5 24-32 Z Miner J Putz
58 DET @OAK L 4-5 (11) 24-34 C Gaudin B Seay
60 DET CLE L 2-4 24-36 P Byrd J Verlander
61 DET CLE W 8-4 25-36 Z Miner M Kobayashi
64 DET CHW W 6-4 27-37 N Robertson J Contreras
69 DET LAD W 5-4 32-37 N Robertson C Park
74 DET @SDP W 7-5 35-39 N Robertson C Baek
82 DET @MIN W 5-4 42-40 C Fossum M Guerrier
85 DET @SEA W 8-4 43-42 J Verlander C Silva
86 DET @SEA L 1-4 43-43 E Bedard K Rogers
95 DET @BAL W 6-5 48-47 K Rogers G Olson
99 DET @KCR W 19-4 50-49 Z Miner L Hochevar
104 DET CHW W 6-4 53-51 Z Miner J Vazquez
105 DET @CLE L 0-5 53-52 P Byrd K Rogers
106 DET @CLE W 8-5 54-52 A Galarraga M Ginter
109 DET @TBR L 2-5 55-54 G Balfour Z Miner
113 DET @CHW L 1-5 55-58 J Danks J Verlander
115 DET OAK L 2-4 56-59 D Braden K Rogers
120 DET TOR L 3-4 58-62 D Purcey K Rogers
131 DET CLE L 3-4 (10) 64-67 B Donnelly G Glover
138 DET LAA L 4-5 66-72 S Shields F Rodney
142 DET @MIN W 6-4 68-74 C Rapada M Guerrier
143 DET @MIN W 7-5 69-74 C Lambert G Perkins

The Tigers are 21-24 in these games. 197 runs scored (4.37/G, would rank 11th in AL) versus 200 runs allowed (4.44/G, would rank 7th in AL).

]]> By: Andrew in Toronto http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105558 Andrew in Toronto Tue, 09 Sep 2008 23:19:01 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105558 But if our actual won-loss record is pretty much the same as our pythagorean won-loss record, I'd have to say that our runs-in-aggregate are the only offensive evaluation we really need. We are winning the number of games we're supposed to win based on our runs-in-aggregate. If it feels like we have lost too many games where the offense didn't show up, etc., those things must have evened out somehow. So... We've scored enough runs so that with an average pitching staff, we'd be in 1st place. But if our actual won-loss record is pretty much the same as our pythagorean won-loss record, I’d have to say that our runs-in-aggregate are the only offensive evaluation we really need.

We are winning the number of games we’re supposed to win based on our runs-in-aggregate.

If it feels like we have lost too many games where the offense didn’t show up, etc., those things must have evened out somehow.

So… We’ve scored enough runs so that with an average pitching staff, we’d be in 1st place.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105554 Chris in Dallas Tue, 09 Sep 2008 22:35:02 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105554 This just in: Dontrelle Willis is starting Monday and Freddy Garcia is starting Wednesday in Texas. So I'll be there to witness the rebirth. http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080909/SPORTS02/80909069/1050 This just in: Dontrelle Willis is starting Monday and Freddy Garcia is starting Wednesday in Texas. So I’ll be there to witness the rebirth.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.....09069/1050

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105551 Smoking Loon Tue, 09 Sep 2008 21:04:39 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105551 I wondered how it would be if Tigers pitching had given 4-5 runs every game this season. 72 games each of 4 and 5 allowed would be... 648. 95 less than actual, considerably better. So I took the scores and replaced the opponents scores with 4 or 5, alternating 4-5, starting the first game with 4, then 5. 4-5 alternating: 68 wins, 66 losses, 10 ties 5-4 alternating: 66 wins, 64 losses, 14 ties Splitting the ties between win and loss, either way you come up with a record of 73-71. How about if the Tigers had scored 5 every game? Or alternated scoring 5-6 every game? (Which would yield 792 or only 58 more than actual, certainly not out of reach for the 1000-run offense.) Keep those checks coming, Chuck. I wondered how it would be if Tigers pitching had given 4-5 runs every game this season. 72 games each of 4 and 5 allowed would be… 648. 95 less than actual, considerably better. So I took the scores and replaced the opponents scores with 4 or 5, alternating 4-5, starting the first game with 4, then 5.

4-5 alternating: 68 wins, 66 losses, 10 ties

5-4 alternating: 66 wins, 64 losses, 14 ties

Splitting the ties between win and loss, either way you come up with a record of 73-71.

How about if the Tigers had scored 5 every game? Or alternated scoring 5-6 every game? (Which would yield 792 or only 58 more than actual, certainly not out of reach for the 1000-run offense.)

Keep those checks coming, Chuck.

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105549 Smoking Loon Tue, 09 Sep 2008 20:26:23 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105549 Don't jump to conclusions now, Chris. Besides the obvious, it was interesting to note how Ordonez is essentially equivalent to Cabrera, despite less flashy overall numbers elsewhere, due in part to the time Maggs was on the DL. But there's another feather in Gil's cap - he's been the Tigers' Iron Man this season. Haven't heard much about that, but he deserves some credit. Don’t jump to conclusions now, Chris.

Besides the obvious, it was interesting to note how Ordonez is essentially equivalent to Cabrera, despite less flashy overall numbers elsewhere, due in part to the time Maggs was on the DL. But there’s another feather in Gil’s cap – he’s been the Tigers’ Iron Man this season. Haven’t heard much about that, but he deserves some credit.

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105548 Smoking Loon Tue, 09 Sep 2008 20:19:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105548 "Our offense is good enough to put us in first place" Seemingly. But not really. It only looks that way in aggregate. “Our offense is good enough to put us in first place”

Seemingly. But not really. It only looks that way in aggregate.

]]> By: Andrew in Toronto http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105547 Andrew in Toronto Tue, 09 Sep 2008 20:03:50 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105547 "Favourite colour" ha ha, I like your sense of humour... Anyway, I think it is fair to evaluate this team based on total runs scored. Sure, it feels like there have been some bad games, but the team's record is just one game off its pythagorean w-l. The team has scored 734 runs. Is that enough? I figure that if they had allowed only 646 runs (as opposed to the 743 they really allowed) they would be in or tied for first place with the White Sox. How good is 646 runs allowed? It would put them 7th in the AL. (Right between Chicago and Minnesota, incidentally.) So, if we had a pitching staff that was around average for the AL, our offense is good enough to put us in first place. “Favourite colour” ha ha, I like your sense of humour…

Anyway, I think it is fair to evaluate this team based on total runs scored. Sure, it feels like there have been some bad games, but the team’s record is just one game off its pythagorean w-l.

The team has scored 734 runs. Is that enough? I figure that if they had allowed only 646 runs (as opposed to the 743 they really allowed) they would be in or tied for first place with the White Sox.

How good is 646 runs allowed? It would put them 7th in the AL. (Right between Chicago and Minnesota, incidentally.)

So, if we had a pitching staff that was around average for the AL, our offense is good enough to put us in first place.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105546 Chris in Dallas Tue, 09 Sep 2008 20:03:40 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105546 I shall go out on a limb and use my extremely honed analytical skills to conclude that Granderson, Fatty, Maggs and Guillen have been the Tigers 4 most productive batsmen in 2008. I shall go out on a limb and use my extremely honed analytical skills to conclude that Granderson, Fatty, Maggs and Guillen have been the Tigers 4 most productive batsmen in 2008.

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105545 Smoking Loon Tue, 09 Sep 2008 19:45:22 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105545 OK, Stat Boy. Let's really mess with Ron now. Tigers (and an ex-Tiger) with 200+ AB: Runs Created/Game Granderson 7.8 Cabrera 6.7 Ordonez 6.5 Joyce 6.1 Guillen 5.9 Polanco 5.3 Thames 5.1 Rodriguez 4.9 Inge 4.4 Sheffield 4.0 Renteria 3.9 Offensive Winning Percentage Granderson .695 Cabrera .631 Ordonez .619 Joyce .593 Guillen .581 Polanco .526 Thames .512 Rodriguez .497 Inge .446 Sheffield .396 Renteria .389 Adjusted Batting Runs Granderson 25.7 Ordonez 24.4 Cabrera 24.3 Guillen 11.0 Joyce 6.3 Thames 2.1 Polanco 1.3 Rodriguez -1.0 Inge -6.3 Sheffield -6.7 Renteria -11.5 Batting Wins Granderson 2.4 Ordonez 2.3 Cabrera 2.3 Guillen 1.0 Joyce 0.6 Thames 0.2 Polanco 0.1 Rodriguez -0.1 Sheffield -0.6 Inge -0.6 Renteria -1.1 Nope. No trends are evident. Sorry. OK, Stat Boy. Let’s really mess with Ron now.

Tigers (and an ex-Tiger) with 200+ AB:

Runs Created/Game

Granderson 7.8
Cabrera 6.7
Ordonez 6.5
Joyce 6.1
Guillen 5.9
Polanco 5.3
Thames 5.1
Rodriguez 4.9
Inge 4.4
Sheffield 4.0
Renteria 3.9

Offensive Winning Percentage

Granderson .695
Cabrera .631
Ordonez .619
Joyce .593
Guillen .581
Polanco .526
Thames .512
Rodriguez .497
Inge .446
Sheffield .396
Renteria .389

Adjusted Batting Runs

Granderson 25.7
Ordonez 24.4
Cabrera 24.3
Guillen 11.0
Joyce 6.3
Thames 2.1
Polanco 1.3
Rodriguez -1.0
Inge -6.3
Sheffield -6.7
Renteria -11.5

Batting Wins

Granderson 2.4
Ordonez 2.3
Cabrera 2.3
Guillen 1.0
Joyce 0.6
Thames 0.2
Polanco 0.1
Rodriguez -0.1
Sheffield -0.6
Inge -0.6
Renteria -1.1

Nope. No trends are evident. Sorry.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105544 Chris in Dallas Tue, 09 Sep 2008 19:05:50 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105544 OK, now I'm on this whole total bases per plate appearance kick. Here's how some Tigers stack up: Granderson .594 (11th in AL) Fatty .581 (14th) Maggs .554 (26th) Guillen .525 (32nd) Polanco .461 (54th) Renteria .434 (63rd) OK, now I’m on this whole total bases per plate appearance kick. Here’s how some Tigers stack up:

Granderson .594 (11th in AL)
Fatty .581 (14th)
Maggs .554 (26th)
Guillen .525 (32nd)
Polanco .461 (54th)
Renteria .434 (63rd)

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105540 Smoking Loon Tue, 09 Sep 2008 18:03:28 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105540 "Still need a major housekeeping" Yeah. “Still need a major housekeeping”

Yeah.

]]> By: ron http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105538 ron Tue, 09 Sep 2008 17:44:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105538 Don't let this latest run fool you. Too many losses when we scored 3 runs or less. A lot of these guys mailed it in for 3 months. No wonder they have so much pop. They have done very little work up until now. Still need a major housekeeping. And not only the pitching and management. You gotta play 6 months and hit in the clutch. This is a lazy ballclub. Don’t let this latest run fool you. Too many losses when we scored 3 runs or less. A lot of these guys mailed it in for 3 months. No wonder they have so much pop. They have done very little work up until now. Still need a major housekeeping. And not only the pitching and management. You gotta play 6 months and hit in the clutch. This is a lazy ballclub.

]]> By: Smoking Loon http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105537 Smoking Loon Tue, 09 Sep 2008 17:11:57 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105537 Tabbed browsing has been made obsolete. Tabbed browsing has been made obsolete.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105536 Chris in Dallas Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:25:48 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/09/game-144-as-at-tigers/#comment-105536 Incidentally, I'd like to thank billfer for adding naughty women from my area as part of this site. My love of boobies and baseball can now be fulfilled with just one mouse click. Incidentally, I’d like to thank billfer for adding naughty women from my area as part of this site. My love of boobies and baseball can now be fulfilled with just one mouse click.

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