Game 82: Tigers at Twins

by billfer on June 30, 2008 · 314 comments

in 2008 Season,Game Post

PREGAME: The Tigers and Twins with their records sufficiently padded against the NL, will do battle tonight in the Metrodome. The Tigers will be without Magglio Ordonez. But the Twins placed their right fielder on the DL yesterday as well. Of course Michael Cuddyer is hitting 252/324/376 this year so it isn’t really a fair trade off.

The Twins of course are one of the hottest teams in baseball and had a 10 game win streak snapped on Saturday. Somehow the Twins are scoring at the same rate as the Tigers. I say somehow because while the Twins have an above average batting average they have a below average OBP and as a team they are only slugging .399. In other words they are giving up 50 points of OPS to the Tigers. Their secret is a .313 batting average with runners in scoring position. That leads the AL by a ton with the White Sox second at .284.

As for the Twins pitching staff, they aren’t helped by their below average defense. Opponents are slugging .440 against the Twins which is highest in the league and they have a pretty pedestrian 5.7 K/9. But they are a half walk better per game in not allowing free passes than the next best team.

The pitching match-up tonight is lefty Glen Perkins and righty Armando Galarraga. Galarraga will be facing the Twins for the 3rd time after losing the first two match-ups. He’s also coming off his roughest start of the season. Glenn Perkins has allowed 3 runs in each of his last 4 starts, but the length of said starts ranged from 5 to 8 innings.

For more on the Twins check out Seth Speaks, Stick and Ball Guy, and Twins Geek and Twins Territory.

DET @ MIN, Monday, June 30, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 8:10

POSTGAME: I think this is the definition of “gutting one out.” This game was a lot of ugly for the first 6 innings of this game from a Tigers standpoint. Armando Galarraga was pitching pretty well, but was getting little defensive support. There were 3 errors and a misplayed ball by Ryan Raburn. The Tigers also failed to cash in on an early 2nd and 3rd – 1 out situation. And they lost their clean-up hitter to injury. Yet some late inning magic leaves the orange and blue striped protagonists feeling good.

A one out single by Curtis Granderson (2 more hits off of a south paw tonight for Grandy) in the 7th mercifully chased Glen Perkins and the Tigers got busy on the parade of arms brought out of the Twins bullpen.

Matt Joyce came off the bench and tripled in the tying run in the 7th inning continuing the string of big freakin’ clutch hits from players on loan from the Mud Hens. And it was Granderson picking up his 3rd hit (which pushed his average over .300) to give the team the lead.

It was a very nice performance from the Tigers bullpen with Casey Fossum retiring 4 batters and Joel Zumaya pitching under some duress after a couple cheap hits in the 9th to get the 1.2 inning save.

 
 

{ 314 comments }

Vince in MN June 30, 2008 at 6:04 pm

I hate to throw cold water on all the excitement based on how “great” the Tigers have been playing lately, but I think it is good to temper this optimism with a bit of skepticism. After all, for the last three weeks MLB has been engaged in what I like to call the Silly Season (I hate interleague play).

Take a look at the AL standings before and after interleague play (I’m passing on the NL because, well, I don’t care. I just don’t give a hoot if Arizona takes the NL West with an 80-82 record at the end of the year):

EAST Before After
BOS —- / .5
TB 1.5 / —-
NY 4.5 / 5.5
BAL 7 / 7.5
TOR 6.5 / 10

CENT Before After
CHI —- / —-
MN 3.5 / 1.5
DET 6 / 5.5
CLE 3.5 / 9.5
KC 10.5 / 9.5

WEST Before After
LA —- / —–
OAK 4.5 / 3.5
TX 6.5 / 7.5
SEA 16.5 / 17.5

Three weeks further into the season and what major changes in the AL races do we see? In the East, TB and BOS have switched spots. In the Central, the Twins are a little better and Cleveland has tanked. And in the West – well look at that. Basically, the differences between the real contenders in each division are only a game or two at best.

Because the NL is so bad (a tick over .400 winning percentage in IL play), the results of the last three weeks of play really don’t tell much – almost all AL teams kicked butt (played “great”). All we really know is that Toronto has no chance in the East, (which isn’t a big surprise), Seattle is still bad (also not a big surprise), and Cleveland will probably be conducting a fire sale soon (somewhat of a surprise).

Pad-Your-Stats Time (especially for the AL) is now over and the Junior Circuit teams have to get back to playing really meaningful games against each other.

Have the Tigers turned the corner? On first glance it looks like so, but there are still some nagging question marks as far as the offense (many missed opportunities) and bullpen (blown responsibilities) are concerned.

I’m happy that they have pulled themselves over .500 finally, but given the quality of the recent opposition I’m just not convinced yet that they will be able to win the division, which is what they need to do, since the wild card team is likely coming from the East. Somehow they have to reverse that horrible (worst) in-division performance (10-19 as compared to CHI 21-11, a difference of 9.5 games). It all begins tonight against the Twins. Who is for real, who are the fakes?

Walt at UMN (formerly CMU) June 30, 2008 at 6:13 pm

I just talked the wife into going to this one. This will be my first Tigs game away from Detroit. (I moved to Minneapolis three weeks ago)

Chris in Dallas June 30, 2008 at 6:15 pm

Vince: Good points. Remember that this all started with a sweep of the White Sox, though. So there’s that. Undoubtedly, playing the Weak Sisters of the Poor helped get the ball rolling but I think the Tigers can sustain some of this momentum. I see the Twins fading some. They’re hitting like .315 with RISP as a team, which is really hard to sustain. Outside of Mauer and Morneau there’s not really anyone that strikes fear into you in that lineup. The Sox have been playing great, but I don’t see Danks and Floyd doing what they’re doing for the entire season. Not yet anyway. The Tigers have their warts and everything, but I think their talent will prevail over the long haul. Call me a cokceyed optimist.

Chris in Dallas June 30, 2008 at 6:15 pm

I meant ‘cockeyed’. It’s late…

Neal June 30, 2008 at 6:29 pm

“Their secret is a .313 batting average with runners in scoring position. That leads the AL by a ton with the White Sox second at .284.”

The stats for BA with RISP bodes well for the Tigers. Those averages tend to even out over the season. The Twins and White Sox will regress towards the mean, and if the Tigers hit like they have all season, then we have race on our hands.

Vince in MN June 30, 2008 at 6:29 pm

Walt:

I hope you enjoy the game, but that (football) stadium really sucks. I went to see the Tigers play there back in early May with one of my die-hard Twins fan buds (who also hates it) just for old time sake, since this is the last year for the “Hump” (as it is known here amongst other things). That was the first (and last) time in about 10 years.

Watch out for any richochets off the speakers in the ceiling.

And let us know later if they turn the fans on to blow towards home when the Tigers are up ;)

Neal June 30, 2008 at 6:58 pm

These are the stats for the 3 teams in late innings of close games. I didn’t look to see how the two terms are defined.

Team G AB R H 2B3BHRRBI TB BB SO OBP SLG AVG
Twins 28 341 36 93 13 2 9 36 137 28 67 .328 .402 .273
WSox 17 181 15 44 8 0 6 15 70 21 43 .332 .387 .243
Tigers 20 215 18 48 8 0 6 17 74 25 46 .306 .344 .223

AL Ranking
Twins 3 7 6 3
WSox 13 6 8 7
Tigers 12 10 10 11

The Tigers have to be able to do better, and the Twins will come down to Earth. The White Sox

Neal June 30, 2008 at 7:03 pm

The rankings only list Games, OBP, SLG, and AVG

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 7:55 pm

The Twins shall be destroyed. Glen Perkins shall be destroyed. His feeble fastball shall pelt the outfield, and his sinker shall indeed sink — into the right and left field seats! The artificial turf shall be flooded with the tears of the Twins’ AAAA lineup, and the team will plead with Bud Selig to reconsider his earlier plan to contract the Twins’ franchise. By then the damage shall have already been done!

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 8:00 pm

At last the Tigers are playing a game in the real time zone. I don’t mind the Tigers playing at home, but something needs to be done about those oddball 6:05 PM starts. Really annoying, no time in between getting home from work and the game. I’m surprised the league lets them get away this. Even the Sox start games at normal times. Well, except for that 7-11 thing.

Joel in Seattle June 30, 2008 at 8:01 pm

Yea, verily, Dave.

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 8:03 pm

Ah, Dave goes semi-biblical. I assume this is just a warm up for tomorrow’s prophecy. I suggest working in that line from Pulp Fiction about “going medieval,” if possible.

Brian P June 30, 2008 at 8:13 pm

I love the FSN camera angle tonight. This is how all games should be broadcasted.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:13 pm

Great catch by Span. I hate the twins announcers.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:18 pm

Jeez, terrible AB by Cabrera. I guess he doesn’t like those fastballs right down the middle or inner third.

Indians up 1-0 on the Sox, top 1. Gaving Floyd, easily the luckiest pitcher on the planet, going for the Sox. Seriously, he’s ridiculously lucky. Look at his BABIP, FIP, LD %, K:BB, GB:FB peripherals. He’s going to come crashing to earth and it’s going to be fun to watch.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:20 pm

Gomez showed bunt before Galarraga even threw the first pitch, and was thrown out at first by Guillen easily. Rod is most displeased by Gomez’s arrogance.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:21 pm

Pudge seems hurt. Uh oh.

UPDATE: He’s staying in

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:22 pm

Mauer drives in Casilla with a double. 1-0 Twins.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:24 pm

Yeesh, this isn’t looking good at all.

ron June 30, 2008 at 8:24 pm

Ball right in his wheelhouse.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:25 pm

Is Rod the only man on earth who refers to a slider as a “slide-piece”?

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:27 pm

Something is really bothering Pudge, he was wincing after he blocked that pitch in the dirt.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:28 pm

They get out of the inning with only the one run scored, but three hits.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:29 pm

Nice job by Galarraga to limit the damage. 1-0 after 1, but somehow it feels like 5-0.

ron June 30, 2008 at 8:29 pm

Wheww.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:30 pm

COUNTRY STRONG!! Tie game

Russ June 30, 2008 at 8:30 pm

MARCUS!!!!

West Coast Tiger June 30, 2008 at 8:31 pm

Yeah Marcus Yes

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:31 pm

Hey, Marcus!!

ron June 30, 2008 at 8:32 pm

MARCUS, OUR MAN.

West Coast Tiger June 30, 2008 at 8:32 pm

Rayburn

looked awful on that play in the 1st

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:33 pm

Are people just spelling it “Rayburn” on purpose now?

West Coast Tiger June 30, 2008 at 8:41 pm

That was so clutch to answer back.

Sheff didn’t over swing, I think he’ll have more success until he gets in more of a rhythm.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:45 pm

Thome with a 3-run shot for the Sox, 3-1 bottom2.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:46 pm

Oh jeez. Guillen makes a great play and Cabrera drops the ball.

It’s irrelevant since the next batter hits into a dp.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 8:48 pm

Apparently Cabrera’s arms are a few inches longer than he realizes.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 8:49 pm

Now that he realizes this it may also help him at the plate.

ron June 30, 2008 at 8:50 pm

Miguel has a lot to make up for in this game with that strikeout and error.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:50 pm

Sloppy start to this one. C’mon guys, gotta tighten up.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:51 pm

Cabrera’s apparently hurt. Mario/Rod say he’s leaving the game.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 8:51 pm

Wow the Smoking Man doesn’t seem amused….

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:52 pm

Clete is pinch hitting for Miggs.

ron June 30, 2008 at 8:52 pm

So much for Miguel.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:52 pm

Cabrera pulled, Twins announcers speculating that he’s hurt. Clete Thomas pinch hits, so I would assume Thames takes over at first and Thomas to left.

NoNon June 30, 2008 at 8:52 pm

CLETE!!!

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:53 pm

Clete cannot be stopped! Double.

ron June 30, 2008 at 8:54 pm

Clete, Clete.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 8:54 pm

Well that sucks if Cabrera’s hurt, now there’s no point in him knowing how long his arms are. Tell Larish to hit the road he’s starting tomorrow…

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:54 pm

Thomas does more than Cabrera could have, nice double!

We’re in business with Marcus at the plate and runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out. Gotta cash in here.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 8:56 pm

Marcus k’s. Perkins then induces a ground out of Sheffield, ending the threat

Adam June 30, 2008 at 8:57 pm

Tigers are so bad in this situation. Seems like we always fail.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 8:58 pm

screwed the pooch there. Poor job getting zero runs out of that.

ron June 30, 2008 at 9:00 pm

It’s 1 to 1 in the game of futility.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:01 pm

Actually strangely enough Thames only has 17 RBI in 36 AB with RISP (.472 RBI/AB RISP avg). not one of the better numbers on the team…

Dylan June 30, 2008 at 9:01 pm

What happened to Miggy?

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:01 pm

I think we’ll have a better time against Perkins than they’ll have against Battlestar. But that’s just my opinion.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:02 pm

No one knows, Dylan

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:04 pm

Oooh, AG threw inside twice to Mauer, and the umpire issued warnings to both sides. Gardenhire got pissed that he was warned (especially since Perkins pitches inside all the time and NEEDS that pitch), and was ejected for arguing about it with the ump in an aggressive fashion. Weird.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:04 pm

Oooooh, this just got a little chippy. I like the feisty side of Armando.

“don’t screw with my teammate”

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:04 pm

What just happened? With Gardenhire? I’m on Gameday over here.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 9:04 pm

Cabrera looked awful tonight. I don’t know if he’s hurt or out of it, or what. The Polanco throw he barely moved. The Guillen throw he just missed. And he looked completely perplexed on a fastball down the middle.

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 9:04 pm

What on earth were those 2 first pitches to Mauer? They made Gameday freeze.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 9:05 pm

Sean, one was behind him, the other was way inside. Both benches were warned about throwing inside and Gardenhire got tossed.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:06 pm

The Twins announcers are speculating the Galarraga may have been instructed (or on his own) to hit Mauer. Where they got that, I’m not sure.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:06 pm

Cabrera has a “tight hip flexor” or some such thing.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 9:08 pm

Galarraga is afraid to throw on the inner half now. Morneau is about to flip one to left field.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:08 pm

Man, at least we’re not the Indians. They’re about to get blown out of the water in the third innings because they booted the ball all over the field.

Cabrera left with a tight left hip flexor, according to the Twins announcers.

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:09 pm

I hate these two guys. M and M. Might and Magic.

Mouth and Muscle. Mug and Missile. Mud and Mumble.

Hate ‘em.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:09 pm

Nice call Bill

Thomas makes an error on Morneau’s single sending him to second and Mauer home. 2-1 twins

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:09 pm

UPDATE: Swisher slam makes it 8-1 Sox.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:10 pm

yikes, another error; gift run for the Twins.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 9:10 pm

Not at all a satisfying effort tonight. They wasted a scoring chance, 3 errors, and a misplay by Raburn.

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:10 pm

Got to be kidding me.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:11 pm

I hate the Metrodome. The worst stuff always happens to us here. It’s amazing we ever won a series here, much less a game.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:12 pm

Actually I take that back about Thames–last time I looked at these numbers there were several guys well over .500, and they have all dropped, leaving Thames about the best:

RBI per AB with RISP: (not including today)

Inge .571
Clete .438
Granderson .415
Raburn .412 (despite batting .176)
Cabrera .386
Ordonez .370
Guillen .366
Polanco .359
Pudge .323
Renteria .318
Sheffield .317

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:12 pm

sloppy all around. just a mess.

Chris June 30, 2008 at 9:13 pm

I hate the twins more than any other franchise in sports. I really wish Bud’s idea to destroy the team in contraction would have followed through. They have disgraced the game by playing in that horrible dome.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:13 pm

Armando’s had to get 12 outs in 3 innings of work.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:13 pm

Gift strikeout of Kubel ends the inning.

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:13 pm

I’ll be happy with the Metrodome trip as long as we win one.

One game.

I have a feeling we’re going to get swept again though. Please don’t let it happen.

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 9:14 pm

Boy do the Tigers look awful. Contenders? Not tonight. And Galarraga is freaking me out. What is it with him and the Twins?

ron June 30, 2008 at 9:14 pm

Gotta break on that strike.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 9:15 pm

I hate the twins more than any other franchise in sports. I really wish Bud’s idea to destroy the team in contraction would have followed through. They have disgraced the game by playing in that horrible dome.

The irony of this is that the threat of contraction was to get the Twins a new stadium and get them out of the dome. The real problem is that they have a cheap-ass owner who won’t spend any of his own money.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:16 pm

Pudge clearly feels like crap, but singles anyway

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:21 pm

Another borderline pitch called a strike, touch to complain given the call that Galarraga got.

The ump has to give that outside corner now because everyone’s afraid to pitch inside.

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 9:23 pm

Renteria ks, Tigers gone in 4th, 2-1 Twins. Yuk. Galarraga, throw some strikes again. Try to forget that you have no defense behind you.

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 9:25 pm

A soft liner to 3B on an 0-2 pitch is a K where I come from.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:26 pm

It would be nice to get about an 8 or 9 pitch inning here and then run that clown Perkins out next inning, at least work their bullpen a bit.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 9:27 pm

The strike three to Kubel was 1.2 inches off the plate. The strike 3 to Granderson was 4.6 inches off the plate. Just sayin.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:27 pm

Wow a 7-pitch inning, that’s more like it.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 9:27 pm

Boys, it’s a long game and I’m actually encouraged at where we stand at this point. I just hope that Cabs is fine.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 9:28 pm

Three balls hit to Polanco end the 4th inning in about five seconds. Still 2-1 Twins

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:29 pm

THEN WHY DO I FEEL LIKE THE HONEYMOON IS OVER?!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:32 pm

The honeymoon is over? I wasn’t even invited to the wedding!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:35 pm

Very clever of the Twins to have a lefty up in their rotation today with Ordonez, Inge, and now Cabrera out…

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 9:39 pm

Gameday has a real attitude with me tonight. Tell me when the Tigers start to wake up. I feel I’m wasting valuable statistical research time following this game.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 9:39 pm

“Winning with the Bounce, A History of the Minnesota Twins and the Metrodome”.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:39 pm

They don’t pull Perkins now do they? With Thames Sheffield and Pudge coming up?

Chris June 30, 2008 at 9:40 pm

Oh no! Inge’s bat is out of the lineup. We are so screwed.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:42 pm

“Oh no! Inge’s bat is out of the lineup. We are so screwed.”

I wouldn’t mind his glove in the lineup…and you do know who is best on the Tigers at knocking in runs with RISP, right? (rhymes with Binge…)

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:44 pm

I hate them so much.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:44 pm

Weird play but he looked out to me…

K-man June 30, 2008 at 9:45 pm

The Twins are a joke.
And how do they score?
Bloopers and bleeders,
And Justin Morneau.

Chris June 30, 2008 at 9:45 pm

God damn Mauer… I hope he breaks his arm

David G. June 30, 2008 at 9:46 pm

Again, Mark, I’ve never seen a team do so much with bounces in their favor as this team. It NEVER seems to even out.

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 9:47 pm

“Oh no! Inge’s bat is out of the lineup. We are so screwed.”

Ha.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 9:48 pm

Agree, David. It never seems to even out. I really don’t think I have selective memory, this team gets the vast majority of the breaks, at least against us.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:49 pm

The only way to beat the Twins is to play the weird play like they do…I think we need one of those home runs right now, that takes the outfielder’s glove over the wall with it.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 9:53 pm

Of course you don’t get too many good bounces when you whiff…

Jeff June 30, 2008 at 9:53 pm

The hitters look really confused tonight. You’d think it was Glavine in his prime on the mound.

ron June 30, 2008 at 9:54 pm

Good God, Marcus and Gary making Perkins look like Cy Young this inning.

Adam June 30, 2008 at 9:54 pm

And somehow Perkins has become Santana. Woo.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:01 pm

Oh boy looks like Possum time soon…unggghhh

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:02 pm

Leyland has to get ejected her right?

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:03 pm

He caught it…that’s freaking bs

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:03 pm

That was a catch no doubt.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:04 pm

Trap or no?

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:04 pm

Eh maybe I’m wrong…it’s one of the closer traps I’ve ever seen

billfer June 30, 2008 at 10:06 pm

Leyland tried to get tossed and you could read Welke’s lips when he said “I’m not going to run you”

I think it was a trap. Damn close though.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:06 pm

Well gee the announcers just pronounced it’s absolutely a trap because clearly otherwise Raburn would have gotten ejected arguing it….yeah, or he knows they have nobody left on the bench !!

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:06 pm

This is the inning in which things need to HAPPEN.

Five runs happen.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:07 pm

3 bloops and a blast, no problem.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:08 pm

It was a CRAP.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:08 pm

I want a play at the plate where thames runs over mauer’s pretty little mug and he drops the ball…is that weird?

Sean C. in Illinois June 30, 2008 at 10:09 pm

Galarraga tonight… not especially good, but certainly not lucky. He got out of the 6th with only 1 run, not bad.

Boy, talk about a Futility Vibe. 6 innings of this is enough for me. I will be stunned if they can pull this one out. I’m afraid I see a bullpen meltdown turning this into a laugher.

(Filling in for Sky tonight.)

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:09 pm

The ground can’t cause a fumble.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:10 pm

Forty: “I want a play at the plate where thames runs over mauer’s pretty little mug and he drops the ball…is that weird?”

No…well, besides the “pretty” part

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:12 pm

Glad to see this guy go.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:13 pm

Forty: even better if it’s on an inside the park homer that bounces around the roof and baggy wall and whatever other crap that things bounce off in the Metrodumb

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 10:13 pm

Rod: “Santana not pitching all that well in the National League…”

3.01 ERA, 3-1 K to BB ratio… Yeah, he’s just fallen off a cliff.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:15 pm

Rod is not what you’d call a sabermetrician, but he will make a comment about lefties liking to hit low balls from time to time

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:16 pm

Come on carlos put it in the seats

JML June 30, 2008 at 10:16 pm

Poly’s my Tiger!!

JML June 30, 2008 at 10:17 pm

Reyes puts the bull in bullpen

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:17 pm

I don’t think “Jesse Crain” is a real name, it sounds too much like what a waitress/screenwriter would name a character in a lame screenplay she’s trying to write…

So what’s his real name and what’s he trying to hide?

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:18 pm

I would like a Guillen-Hit-It-As-Hard-As-You-Can-Sac-Fly-That-Turns-Into-Three-Run-Homer right now please.

Let’s all put our heads together and send Carlos some happy thoughts.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:18 pm

And with clete “pujols” thomas on deck, he’s going to see something :). Heck scratch that. Lean into one carlos and let thomas clear em with the granny.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:18 pm

Mark in Chicago, we may need you soon for one of your patented calls.

JML June 30, 2008 at 10:19 pm

Everyone aboard the Tigers Merry-go-Round!!!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:19 pm

Forty: but then who flattens Mauer?

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:21 pm

Forget the home runs, I would love about 8 consecutive ground ball singles through the hole.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:21 pm

So… I stepped away for dinner and it looks like I missed some events. Something about a trap? Some more Metrodome BS? Galarraga surviving?

What gives?

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:21 pm

Come on Marcus.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:21 pm

I like that slide by carlos – no dp baby!

Come on country, this is your time!

JML June 30, 2008 at 10:22 pm

Can we bribe someone to get Jose Mesa into the Twins bullpen? He’s be a mah-velous addition!

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:22 pm

They’re going to walk Marcus, aren’t they?

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:22 pm

Guerrier?

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:23 pm

sorry ron, I don’t even have a clue what’s going on.

But I can see the Tigers almost have the game tied, so I’ll say that some freak-a$$ thing will occur to get the Twins out of the 7th inning with their lead intact.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:24 pm

Good eye country

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:25 pm

God I hate to be nervous like this.

Adam June 30, 2008 at 10:25 pm

Strikes out looking. Wooooo!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:25 pm

I dont think they will walk him

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:28 pm

Some stingy infield defense by the tigers today

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:28 pm

Oh goodness, nice to see the sloppiness picks up right where it left off following my little break from the game.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:29 pm

Now it’s time to play possum

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:31 pm

I say should have given Mauer the ol’ 1-pitch intentional walk

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:32 pm

But coleman, it’s four balls to a walk – how do u do that :)

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:33 pm

Twin killing!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:33 pm

It’s a phrase I believe I first heard used by Don Drysdale, if that’s any clue…

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:35 pm

Ok last inning before nathan, rally caps on

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:35 pm

Fossum’s ERA+ the last 5 years:

85
69
89
86
59

That’s not including the 27 he’s posted so far this year. For those unfamiliar, ERA+ is just a player’s ERA relative to the league average. 100 is considered exactly league average, anything less means the player was worse than a league average pitcher.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 10:36 pm

Coleman – it also means that Fossum and Leyland both get tossed and suspended.

Very nice inning by Fossum. This team has some life again. If they don’t get this game, there is no shortage of stuff to point to.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:36 pm

OK boys, let’s do it.

billfer June 30, 2008 at 10:37 pm

Tigers got a turf hit!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:38 pm

Well Leyland has tried twice to get tossed, but we don’t need any suspensions that’s for sure…all hope is not lost, rare is the inning through which we possum unscathed….

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:38 pm

Reports of gary’s demise were greatly exaggerated

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:40 pm

Are they gonna try a hit and run–since Pudge bats that way anyhow?

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:41 pm

Nice job by Fossum. Also, here’s his FIP ERA (ERA based on the stuff he can actually control: walks, strikeouts, home runs) the last 5 years:

4.36
5.78
4.56
5.32
5.71

So it appears he wasn’t unlcuky, just ineffective.

Nice job so far today, though.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:42 pm

Matt joyce the latest guy from toledo to come up big?

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:42 pm

BTW Billfer I wasn’t serious about the “intentional walk,” I was just trying to placate the bloodlust of Forty…

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:43 pm

Time for another rookie to come through since all our veterans are hurt!

C’mon MJ!!

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:43 pm

I’m pretty insatiable

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:44 pm

Well that worked

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:44 pm

Man, that thing is nasty.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:45 pm

At the very least today we are staying in the game and giving their pen a workout…

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:45 pm

whoa. the bite on that curve is unreal.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:45 pm

We all thought it.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:45 pm

YES!!!!!!!!!1

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:46 pm

Your 2008 toledo mud hens :)

billfer June 30, 2008 at 10:46 pm

An absolutely phenomenal at-bat by Joyce. Channeling Jim Price: Wow.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:46 pm

THIS TEAM IS FULL OF UNLIKELY TRIPLES!!!! C’MON CURTIS!!!

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:47 pm

OOOOOH YESSSSS!

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:47 pm

ok, I admit I cheated. I hit ‘refresh’ and saw David’s comment. Since I’m watching on mlb.tv, there’s a little delay, so I was ready for Joyce’s triple.

That’s bigtime. C’mon Curtis. HAVE TO put this ball in play.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:47 pm

I agree Bilfer, but I also thought he coulda been rung up on that 2nd big hook.

C’MON BULLPEN, LOCK THESE GUYS UP FOR ONCE.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:47 pm

Yeah baby curtis is en fuego!!!!

Brian P June 30, 2008 at 10:47 pm

I’m so glad I didn’t go to bed. 5-4 Tigers. Weeeee.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:48 pm

The best thing is we got a Metrodumb bounce in our favor!

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:48 pm

yeah. like that. atta boy Curtis!!

OK Zumaya. You’re up, buddy. Shut ‘em down, old school.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:48 pm

OOOOOH YESSSSSS AGAIN!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:48 pm

We don’t want no extra innings…especially since our entire bench is Hollimon and Sardinha

Tbone June 30, 2008 at 10:49 pm

These scrubs have been incredible!

greg June 30, 2008 at 10:49 pm

Hitting a triple with a guy on 2nd was an excellent strategy.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:50 pm

Nice, I am looking for more, give the Pen some cushion.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:51 pm

didn’t we rough up Guerrier earlier in the year too? Was it the first home game we won, scored some late runs and blew it open?

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:51 pm

Dang, that ball was smoked

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:51 pm

That was darn good baserunning not to get doubled up by Curtis.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 10:52 pm

Chickens hatching and all that, but this is another game that has a very 2006 feel to it, no?

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:52 pm

For a team that kicks the ball all over the field, that was a great play (and very lucky play too) by Harris.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 10:55 pm

I am still only feeling 50/50 on this one, to be honest.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:56 pm

Fossum?

Is Jones unavailable and they’re saving Zumaya for the 9th?

Forty June 30, 2008 at 10:57 pm

Oh ye of little faith, the pen’s gonna shut the door!

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 10:57 pm

ok, nevermind. as I hit ‘submit’ they went to Zumaya.

David, I feel waaaaaaay less than 50/50, I tell ya. Too many freaky things happen in this godforesaken dome. I won’t feel 50/50 about this one until sometime next week.

ron June 30, 2008 at 10:58 pm

Joyce had that guy measured with that long foul ball. C’mon Zoom.

Joel in Seattle June 30, 2008 at 10:59 pm

Zoom hit 100 with his FB to DudeyergettinaDelmon…

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:00 pm

Since Mark is less than 50/50, this game is in the bag.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:00 pm

Changeup here zoomer, come on

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:01 pm

Is it possible to be 0/50?

David G. June 30, 2008 at 11:02 pm

THE METRODOME BREAKS ARE COMING BACK TO US!!!! I STARTED THE RALLY BY SAYING THEY NEVER DO!

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:02 pm

What a funny game, u crush the ball and end the inning…we’ll take it!

billfer June 30, 2008 at 11:02 pm

Now that worked out for the Tigers, but I have to wonder about the pitch calling. They were calling for the fastball in the same spot every time. Zumaya did a nice job keeping the ball down, but remember when he use to elevate the heat and blow it by people?

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:02 pm

The weird-bounce deities have turned on the twinkies

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:03 pm

it is, mark, measure theoretic probability needn’t add to 1 ;)

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:04 pm

I think now is as good a time as any for that outfielder-catches-the-ball-but-drops-his-glove-over-the-fence-home-run

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:04 pm

That was payback for Harris’ play.

Jeff June 30, 2008 at 11:04 pm

So does Jones go out for his third straight day? Zumaya in the 9th?

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:05 pm

billfer, the one curve he threw to Young was a bad one, very little bite and over the middle of the plate. Pudge falls in love with old #1 anyway, I can see him playing to Zumaya’s strength. He kept it down, they were trying to get the ground ball DP, I assume.

Huge DP, that is totally the kind of thing that happens TO the Tigers in the dome, instead of for them. I will definitely take it.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:05 pm

Breslow has a degree in molecular biophysics from Yale.

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:05 pm

Jones gotta be the man.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 11:05 pm

Bilfer, I was wondering the same thing. He just looks like a different pitcher…not necessarily bad, but not what he was 2 years ago.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:07 pm

Zumaya’s back next inning…Jones isn’t warming up and Zumaya’s got the one-sleeve jacket on…

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:07 pm

Jones not warming up mihgt also explain why the constant stream of low fastballs from Zumaya. Pitch to contact to get the DP and conserve pitches so he can finish the 9th.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:07 pm

What a jock major

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:07 pm

“Breslow has a degree in molecular biophysics from Yale.”

You KNOW that guy is doctoring the ball…

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:08 pm

And in comes Brian Bass, who was a starter earlier in the year

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:08 pm

How many pitchers have these guys used?

Adam June 30, 2008 at 11:08 pm

I don’t feel good about Zumaya coming back out.

This is a situation where you use your CLOSER.

JML June 30, 2008 at 11:08 pm

ZoomZoom can pitch any way he likes so long as it gets the next three outs….

Ken from Cincinnati June 30, 2008 at 11:09 pm

Hopefully Zumaya is feeling primed and confident. Show us you want to be the closer my man.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:09 pm

Marcus is due to provide some insurance right here…

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:10 pm

“How many pitchers have these guys used?”

It depends if you count the “Jesse Crain” guy who is pitching under a pseudonym

Adam June 30, 2008 at 11:10 pm

If you have a home run and a golden sombrero, is that a good day or a bad day?

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:10 pm

Or look silly on two pitches out of the zone. Whatever feels right Marcus.

Adam, are you actaully asking for Todd Jones? Man, I was not expecting to hear that any time soon.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:11 pm

Counting “Jesse Crain” they used 6.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:11 pm

Adam: yes.

Cameron in Singapore June 30, 2008 at 11:11 pm

Roller coaster time?

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:11 pm

Nervous time.

Mark P June 30, 2008 at 11:12 pm

Come on Joel!

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:12 pm

“If you have a home run and a golden sombrero, is that a good day or a bad day?”

It’s amazing that Thames is hitting a home run every 10 ABs…however at times those other 9 ABs aren’t the prettiest…

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:12 pm

Oh dear God this scares the daylights out of me. I’m officially 0/0 on this game. No idea what’s going to happen, I just know it will be weird.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:13 pm

Two to go!

David G. June 30, 2008 at 11:14 pm

Ugh.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:14 pm

Denard Span is totally not a real name.

Steve in OH June 30, 2008 at 11:14 pm

And my Slingbox is actually working for a change… Time Warner must like me tonight… but at least I get to watch the bottom of the 9th!

Eeeeeee… looks like the bounces stopped going our way!

David G. June 30, 2008 at 11:14 pm

Here we go…

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:15 pm

Span went to my rival high school…he was above average

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:15 pm

Uh oh, weird bounce type hit…(BTW isn’t Denard Span a bridge in Arkansas?)

Adam June 30, 2008 at 11:15 pm

We’re gonna lose.

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:15 pm

C’mon Pudge.

JML June 30, 2008 at 11:16 pm

Oh my nerves…

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:16 pm

Good pitch by Zumaya to Gomez, just rotten Twins/Mterodome luck (again).

See, even when they start to even out, the Twins get like 5-6 breaks in a row.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:17 pm

Captain Lucky Strike just told Zumaya something like “this one’s yours”

Joel in Seattle June 30, 2008 at 11:17 pm

Don’t think this is what Leyland asked him to do…

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

What do we get if you’re wrong, Adam?

Steve in OH June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

Hell yes Curtis!

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

Yikes yikes yikes, come on zoom

David G. June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

How did I just know that Mauer was gonna get another AB that would count in this game. I hate this.

JML June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

Power vs Mauer…. <>

Adam June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

OH NO. NOT MAUER.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

Actually I’d rather see a ball in the air than the cue ball in the corner pocket bit

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:18 pm

Mauer is not the guy I want to be facing here. Not one bit.

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:19 pm

Please not Mauer, I fear Forty will go injure innocent animals or something

Steve in OH June 30, 2008 at 11:19 pm

Another broken bat? Geez, Joel.

David G. June 30, 2008 at 11:19 pm

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:19 pm

Tigers win! Some of you guys need stronger nerves.

JML June 30, 2008 at 11:19 pm

WOOOHOOO!!!!!!!!!!

Steve in OH June 30, 2008 at 11:20 pm

Woohoo!

Save #1 for Zoom Zoom.

Forty June 30, 2008 at 11:20 pm

Mauer now 1-7 career against the zoom

Joel in Seattle June 30, 2008 at 11:20 pm

WOO HOO!!!

Steve in OH June 30, 2008 at 11:21 pm

Galarraga for ROY at this rate, btw.

JML June 30, 2008 at 11:21 pm

What was that Adam? Who’s going to lose? Pardon? ;-)

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:22 pm

wooh. more relief than excitement at my end. what a sloppy, ugly, gutty win. Can’t expect to play like we did early in this one and keep winning, but i’ll take it.

by the way, i’m still only 60/40 on this game.

Adam June 30, 2008 at 11:22 pm

YES@@!!!!!!OMG!!!!

Dave, I’ll give you all the sweat I can wring out of my underpants after that one.

It’s about seventy percent sweat.

Noli June 30, 2008 at 11:22 pm

That was a huge win for the Tigers against the Twinkies. Go Tigers!

Cameron in Singapore June 30, 2008 at 11:23 pm

Great win guys, great win

Coleman June 30, 2008 at 11:24 pm

Good move by Smoking Man to go out there and tell Zumaya hey don’t bother looking over your shoulder, I’m not pulling you, this one’s yours…more pressure maybe, but keeps him from losing focus.

Ken from Cincinnati June 30, 2008 at 11:24 pm

Lawdy Dawdy…it feels good to beat them twanks. That gives us 25 comeback wins this year, which is the best in the A.L. As much complaining as we do about clutchness, you gots to like that.

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:24 pm

Indians made a run but lost to the Sox, 9-7.

Also, Sean, it looks like I called June right, Tigers at .500 by month end. Lucky me! For my next prediction (read: wild guess) I will say the Tigers will be within 2 games of first place by July 31.

ron June 30, 2008 at 11:24 pm

I liked how Mauer grabbed his nu*s as he settled in. He can now take his nu*s back to the clubhouse in a losing cause. Zoom is back.

judpma June 30, 2008 at 11:27 pm

I didn’t dare log in …..I came in a 1-4 and the Tigers where chipping away I thought I would be the jinx……great win ugly but the big W is all that counts in this game…..another Toledo win..are they in first place counting all these wins up here……

Mark in Chicago June 30, 2008 at 11:27 pm

haha, ron. I actually LOL’d at that!

Mark P June 30, 2008 at 11:28 pm

Nice win after some really crappy defense tonight. Leyland did a good job tonight reading his players.

Dave BW June 30, 2008 at 11:28 pm

A save with two men on base? Jones would be proud.

Jason June 30, 2008 at 11:29 pm

The reason I think this win streak will persist is that other teams (Cards, Rockies, and now Twins) are playing really good, sound baseball and still coming up short to our Tigers!!

Nice use of the ‘pen by Leyland for the second straight game.

RudeMood19 June 30, 2008 at 11:52 pm

nice win

Sean C. in Illinois July 1, 2008 at 12:17 am

I don’t believe it. I don’t know if there’s a trusted source that you guys haven’t tampered with, so I’ve got nowhere to turn.

I’m going to assume that the Tigers lost and are now 41-41. .500 is still pretty good, and there’s always tomorrow.

You guys were pretty convincing with all the YES!!! and OMG! and such, but next time you want to fool me, don’t get recklessly absurd about it and say things like “Good outing by Fossum.,” That’s what gave the hoax away.

Mark in Chicago called for a 20-7 June – in May. The Tigers finished June 18-9, right? So… Mark was way off, not even close. Let us now mock this false prophet until he is too ashamed to any longer show his face here.

And to think I believed in the man.

Hey, rare form tonight, Coleman.

Walt at UMN July 1, 2008 at 12:46 am

That was one good game. I am glad that I didn’t wait and go tomorrow. We got decent seats in left center. The dome may suck, but we were pretty close to the field of play and had a good view of the game on a grad student’s budget.

I didn’t notice any fans until walking out. The air about knocks you off your feet leaving. It was much worse than the silverdome, or at least my memory of it.

We had a young boy of about eight or nine years of age next to us. He was very enthusiastic about the game. I thought at first that I was going to be annoyed by the too loud play by play that he was doing, but he kept me from having to look at the scoreboard for most of the game. The commentary stopped for about five minutes when the Tigers tied the game, then took the lead because the lad was crying. I felt a little bad for him. He bounced back quickly, and was back at it before the Twins were at bat though.

It was a good overall experience.

Kevin in Austin July 1, 2008 at 12:49 am

For those of you who follow outside of Detroit (and you may already know this):

One of my favorite things to do during away games is pull up the MLB.com archived recordings (you need to have the subscription) and listen to our broadcast during critical moments in the game. It’s a great way to end the night, just pulled up the radio broadcast for the 7th, 8th & 9th.

Damn the White Sox and their 5 game win streak…can’t wait for tomorrow.

Walt at UMN July 1, 2008 at 12:59 am

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Milk and cookie vendors? WTF?

Chris July 1, 2008 at 1:11 am

“Damn the White Sox and their 5 game win streak…can’t wait for tomorrow.”

Cliff Lee’s 12th win tomorrow will look pretty good. Let’s get ‘em Tribe…….(though I’d never would root for the Indians in ’08)

judpma July 1, 2008 at 2:11 am

lets keep it rolling….Todd Jones said it tonight on Tigers live ” if we take care of our own business it won’t matter what the other teams do..and if we don’t take care of our own business it won’t matter what other teams do” ….pretty good quote

Sean C. in Illinois July 1, 2008 at 3:15 am

FROM THE INSTITUTE OF UNSOLICITED RESEARCH (IFUR)

Hey look, more stats. Yes, there are 85 other measures of “wins created” and such, weighted for ballpark and weather, but I like my simple approach better.

At baseball-reference, I examined the “Top 5 Plays” in terms of winner’s Win Probability Added (wWPA) for the first 81 games and totaled up the scores for all the Tigers and divided them by either the (season total) number of PA or batters faced. In a handful of instances where it was obvious that the fielder should get the credit or blame for a play rather than the pitcher listed, the fielder got the points. Even so, important defensive plays (mostly the great but sometimes the bad) are largely ignored by wWPA. Because it’s too hard to calculate what “would have” happened, I guess.

Here are the Tigers ranked in terms of top play win contribution per PA or batter faced (think of it as THE OMNEY LIST):

SARDINHA 2.125
THAMES 1.650
THOMAS 1.130
SANTIAGO 1.106
CABRERA .846
ORDONEZ .821
GUILLEN .809
POLANCO .523
INGE .439
RODRIGUEZ .337
GRANDERSON .303
LARISH .273
JOYCE .119
RABURN .024
JONES J. .022
CLEVLEN 0
HOLLIMON 0
RENTERIA -.007
SHEFFIELD -0.069

I should be noted that scores for both Guillen and Renteria were dragged down some by defense, while the opposite was true for Rodriguez. Undoubtedly, Granderson’s score should have been boosted by defense, but wasn’t.

In terms of aggregate points, the foursome of Thames, Ordonez, Cabrera, and Guillen racked up 63% of the position player total. Thames had an aggregate score similar to the other 3 in less than half the PA of any of them. Thames is omney!

RAPADA .547
BAZARDO 0
GRILLI -.119
GALARRAGA -.121
BONDERMAN -.213
JONES T.-.270
BAUTISTA -.386
LOPEZ -.423
FOSSUM -.440
ROGERS -.444
VERLANDER -.448
MINER -.509
BONINE -.519
DOLSI -.578
BELTRAN -.583
SEAY -.606
ROBERTSON -.689
WILLIS -.966
ZUMAYA -2.050
CRUCETA -2.232
RODNEY -2.316

A negative score per se for a pitcher doesn’t mean the same thing as it does for a position player, not as far as top plays go, anyway. In the 4-3 win over the Rockies, Dolsi came in with a 68% chance of a Tigers win and left with it at 86%. Dolsi + defense raised winning chances by 23%, in fact, but Tigers batting in the 7th reduced chances by 5%. But it took Dolsi 6 batters faced to get his 23%. By contrast, one swing by Sardinha got him 32% WPA and cost Rockies pitcher Herges the same.

That pitching list is counterintuitive. Grilli more clutch than Dolsi? Come on. A pretty small sample size for Grilli plays a role. But even so, look into how they each did with runners on in tight games and it makes more sense. Dolsi can be brilliant, but he ain’t no clutch guy yet in terms of top play wWPA. That T. Jones is where he’s at makes perfect sense. He creates his own clutch situations and usually converts them. If he was a batter he’d be up there with Thames, or at least Thomas. Of course, if he was a batter, he’d always get behind 0-2 before reaching on an error or blooping a double over the third baseman’s head. Fossum coming in at #9 of 21 can only be explained by future generations who will understand what is now beyond our grasp.

The rather wide separation between Robertson and the other 4 starters might say something about how he creates his own bad luck. Or is it just random that he blows it at relatively worse times to do so? Find out as sample sizes increase!

Mike R July 1, 2008 at 3:21 am

I’ve been gone for like a week and I won’t lie … it’s been killing me to not read the sean c. and chris in d. comments and others I’m forgetting.

I’m too tired to read this one. My computer took a dump on me but it’s getting a new hard drive (more music pirating, yay!) and some upgrades (yay computer nerd for a brother-in-law!) and should be good to go on wednesday or later. instead, i broke out the old backup PC that’s still running windows 98 since it can’t support anything better (boo!).

My thoughts: the first 6 innings felt like i just had an 6 day bender with the hottest girl of my life only to wake up one day sober and see i’d spent all that time with Rosie O’Donnell.

7th inning and beyond: felt like i just had a 6 day bender with the hottest girl of my life and woke up one day sober and see I’d spent all that time with Halle Berry and Jessica Alba and they both want to shower me with money even in their sobriety.

Coleman July 1, 2008 at 5:21 am

I can’t tell what I think of the Sean C statistics, since my Univax was in the middle of processing them when it uncharacteristically dropped the calculations and jumped to the “Halle Berry and Jessica Alba” section. Twice. So I read Mike R’s post…I thought I enjoyed the game, but apparently there is much more enjoyment to be had in these games…

Ryan P July 1, 2008 at 8:42 am

Tigers get a bit of a break – We were scheduled to draw King Felix in the finale of the 4-game set with Seattle, but he just went on the DL.

Andrew July 1, 2008 at 8:59 am

How ’bout them Tigers? Winning games by 1 run (5 of last 6 victories), gutsy at-bats by unheralded youngsters, coming from behind late in games, and solid relief in the late innings to nail it down.

Yep, the boys are back in town :)

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 10:17 am

Sean: Who is this Dolsi? I know of a Solid coming out of the bullpen, but Dolsi is a new one. Anyhoo, I’ll have to do some research but I think Thames is chasing the record for HR/hit ratio. He may end up with 53 base hits, with 40 of them being HR. Am I allowed to compare him to Dave Kingman yet, or are we still not comparing black guys to white guys? Please advise.

T Smith July 1, 2008 at 11:37 am

Chris in Dallas:

Well, if I recall, someone here once compared Brandon Inge to Brooks Robinson, so I think you’re safe.

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 11:43 am

T Smith: I don’t follow. Though anyone who would compare Inge to Robinson has been huffing glue. Interestingly, my middle name is Brooks (my Dad was a fan of his. Oh, the humanity).

T Smith July 1, 2008 at 12:06 pm

…are we still not comparing black guys to white guys? Please advise.

I was simply “advising” on the issue.

And I would say huffing glue is a mild transgression relative to whatever someone was really on when drawing the comparison. Who knows the limits of the outragous and absurd? Next thing you know, someone is gonna try to tell me Brandon Inge isn’t black or something. Geez.

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 12:24 pm

Now I get it. I’m a little slow today. OK I’m a little slow every day, but today especially.

judpma July 1, 2008 at 12:54 pm

hey I saw those guys on the new MLB Gamecast everyones white

West Coast Tiger July 1, 2008 at 1:13 pm

I have to say I am beginning my day looking forward to game time.

By the way we are 2-0 without Maggs. Obviously, the Tigers can trade him.

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 1:32 pm

Yeah Ordonez is worthless. Trade him for some bats and maybe a few rosin bags. Bum.

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 1:33 pm

By the way, I should note that the captain has turned off the ‘No Sarcasm’ sign, lest I draw the ire of the DTW faithful…

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 1:43 pm

OK I got my geek on. Since we just passed the midway point of the season, I decided to check out BP’s postseason odds. Still not good. The Tigers have a 14.48% chance of qualifying for the postseason at present. They played out this season a kajillion times on the nerd machine, and the Tigers have averaged roughly a 83-79 record. The AL Central champ has averaged 92 wins in those fake seasons. So obviously, the Tigers should probably find a way to win 50 more games this year if they know what’s good for them.

Mark in Chicago July 1, 2008 at 2:20 pm

Chris,

I check that site after almost every win to see how we’re doing. You’re much better off using the PECOTA version of the report, which uses actual player projections (based on PECOTA, duh) to simulate the season. That gives the Tigers a 20% chance to make the postseason.

Given the fact that a handful of Sox pitchers are posting ridiculously lucky ERAs (take a close look at Gavin Floyd’s BABIP, FIP, LD%, K:BB, GB:FB, etc. for a laugh) and will almost certainly regress to the mean, this is a more useful report.

Still not good, but a 1 in 5 shot is better than 1 in 6.

tiff July 1, 2008 at 2:55 pm

Is that true, 25 come from behind victories already?

Ken from Cincinnati July 1, 2008 at 3:03 pm

I was just compiling some stats on us bloggers here and noticed something rather interesting. When looking at entertainment value per word written (EVPW), Sean C. has the top 5 highest rated posts and the top 5 lowest rated posts. While this data is impressive, it is undoubtedly skewed by the fact that he alone accounts for 72% of all posts anyway. He also takes home the gold for the most Shakespearian post and also top prize for most post lag. Pessimism% value is dominated by Sky, while Dave BW just edges out the Optimism% lead with his notorious biblical prophecy posts. “The Twins shall be destroyed 777-0, which will sound the 7 trumpets, which shall bring the wrath of the 7 plagues upon all of Minnesota’s citizens.”

Joel in Seattle July 1, 2008 at 3:08 pm

And Ken earns an honorary PhD in Funk for championing Mr. Thames’ preferred nickname.

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 3:28 pm

Ken: You need to compile some VORP statistics. I’d hate to think that Sean has a higher VORP than I do.

Neal July 1, 2008 at 3:46 pm

That would be a VORB calculation, would it not. Value over replacement bogger?

Ryan P July 1, 2008 at 3:52 pm

you’re a bogger

Chris in Dallas July 1, 2008 at 4:42 pm

I was thinking Value Over Replacement Poster.

Ken from Cincinnati July 1, 2008 at 6:23 pm

“And Ken earns an honorary PhD in Funk for championing Mr. Thames’ preferred nickname.”

Thanks, Joel. We know that it’s at least preferred by us two, which is probably good for a GED in Funk.

And Chris in Dallas…..you could never be replaced. Unless there is some other guy in Dallas named Chris.

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