Comments on: Leyland to make drastic change to lineup http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 25 Jul 2008 12:40:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: beejeez http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83415 beejeez Tue, 06 May 2008 23:34:26 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83415 I plugged in the optimum-lineup tool Bilfer linked to with what I expected to be realistic 2008 stats for each of the Tiger regulars -- not peak seasons, but reasonable stats based on past performance and in no cases as good as their 2007 stats. I took the results with a grain of salt, because they don't take speed into account, but I got some interesting findings. The tool recommended Guillen for the leadoff spot, Mags at No. 2, then Sheff (I gave Sheff 10 points more OBP and 50 points more slugging than he has now, which I think is reasonably conservative), Grandy and Cabrera. Impressions: I think Guillen makes an intriguing leadoff guy, especially vs. righthanders. He'd put pressure on the pitcher right away matchup-wise, and he's a good baserunner. Polanco was way back in the lineup and I think that's right -- I'm sure he'll hit close to .300, but he doesn't walk much and actually Polly doesn't have good speed anyway. Maybe it would make sense to get Mags as many ABs as possible. The tool shows Leyland wasn't insane to keep Sheff at No. 3 so long, and that if he returns to anything close to his pre-injury 2007 form he's OK there. Grandy at No. 4 might work surprisingly well because he won't hit a lot of double play balls and he'll see good pitches with Miggy coming up next. Now if I were doing it, I'd think about Guillen-Sheff-Maggs-Grandy-Cabrera, which would give you two good baserunners at the top of the lineup. The power drops off after those 5 guys, but that would happen anyway, really. A contact hitter like Polly might actually be good at No. 6 or 7, considering the likelihood of extra base hits from Grandy & Cabrera. If Jimbo really wants to try a real "radical" lineup change, maybe he should try something along these lines. I plugged in the optimum-lineup tool Bilfer linked to with what I expected to be realistic 2008 stats for each of the Tiger regulars — not peak seasons, but reasonable stats based on past performance and in no cases as good as their 2007 stats. I took the results with a grain of salt, because they don’t take speed into account, but I got some interesting findings.
The tool recommended Guillen for the leadoff spot, Mags at No. 2, then Sheff (I gave Sheff 10 points more OBP and 50 points more slugging than he has now, which I think is reasonably conservative), Grandy and Cabrera.
Impressions: I think Guillen makes an intriguing leadoff guy, especially vs. righthanders. He’d put pressure on the pitcher right away matchup-wise, and he’s a good baserunner. Polanco was way back in the lineup and I think that’s right — I’m sure he’ll hit close to .300, but he doesn’t walk much and actually Polly doesn’t have good speed anyway. Maybe it would make sense to get Mags as many ABs as possible. The tool shows Leyland wasn’t insane to keep Sheff at No. 3 so long, and that if he returns to anything close to his pre-injury 2007 form he’s OK there. Grandy at No. 4 might work surprisingly well because he won’t hit a lot of double play balls and he’ll see good pitches with Miggy coming up next.
Now if I were doing it, I’d think about Guillen-Sheff-Maggs-Grandy-Cabrera, which would give you two good baserunners at the top of the lineup. The power drops off after those 5 guys, but that would happen anyway, really. A contact hitter like Polly might actually be good at No. 6 or 7, considering the likelihood of extra base hits from Grandy & Cabrera.
If Jimbo really wants to try a real “radical” lineup change, maybe he should try something along these lines.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83199 Sean C. in Illinois Mon, 05 May 2008 20:59:03 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83199 Tbone - That's OK, you're just adding in the next time we get swept by a team in our division. Not far from a foregone conclusion so far. Also... somehow the hitting still worries me more than the pitching. Maybe because the hitting has been so much farther below my expectations. cib - Thank you. Ryan in Brooklyn - Pitcher's hand! That's the rule I was looking for - now I remember. Thanks. T Smith - Your reasoning on the Inge/3B situation is exactly what I came up with, playing devil's advocate for the Tigers. Now I'm prepared to take Inge in the lineup every day, provided Jones is gone. Andre - I like to think of radical lineups, too. It's fun. But - if Tiger hitters would produce consistently just based on past performance, you could bat Inge 9th (I'm not even counting Jones anymore) and pull the rest of the order out of a hat day to day. Not enough guys are getting it done consistently now, and they know it. A recent quote from Carlos Guillen summed it up nicely. Hot and cold. Off and on. They score a bunch early in a game and then go to sleep. That's good for about 81-81. Maybe. It's at odds with my secret desire to see Marcus Thames get left field to himself and carry the team to a pennant with the 50-home run season we all knew he had in him (50 HR, 70 RBI, hehe)... but I admit that I'd also really like to see Sheffield get a shot at leadoff. Both Sheffield reinventing himself (as someone else put it so well) and Inge winning his starting job back against all odds (and playing well enough to deserve it) would be nice touches on a winning season. A <i>pennant</i> season. Tbone - That’s OK, you’re just adding in the next time we get swept by a team in our division. Not far from a foregone conclusion so far. Also… somehow the hitting still worries me more than the pitching. Maybe because the hitting has been so much farther below my expectations.

cib - Thank you.

Ryan in Brooklyn - Pitcher’s hand! That’s the rule I was looking for - now I remember. Thanks.

T Smith - Your reasoning on the Inge/3B situation is exactly what I came up with, playing devil’s advocate for the Tigers. Now I’m prepared to take Inge in the lineup every day, provided Jones is gone.

Andre - I like to think of radical lineups, too. It’s fun. But - if Tiger hitters would produce consistently just based on past performance, you could bat Inge 9th (I’m not even counting Jones anymore) and pull the rest of the order out of a hat day to day. Not enough guys are getting it done consistently now, and they know it. A recent quote from Carlos Guillen summed it up nicely. Hot and cold. Off and on. They score a bunch early in a game and then go to sleep. That’s good for about 81-81. Maybe.

It’s at odds with my secret desire to see Marcus Thames get left field to himself and carry the team to a pennant with the 50-home run season we all knew he had in him (50 HR, 70 RBI, hehe)… but I admit that I’d also really like to see Sheffield get a shot at leadoff. Both Sheffield reinventing himself (as someone else put it so well) and Inge winning his starting job back against all odds (and playing well enough to deserve it) would be nice touches on a winning season. A pennant season.

]]> By: cib http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83197 cib Mon, 05 May 2008 20:55:09 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83197 http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080505/SPORTS02/80505056 I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling from this. Hope they prove me wrong. http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.....2/80505056

I don’t get a warm and fuzzy feeling from this. Hope they prove me wrong.

]]> By: Brenden http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83186 Brenden Mon, 05 May 2008 20:35:24 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83186 Spoke too soon. Apparently Sheffield is now in left at least a few times a week. His shoulder must be feeling better because wasn't there something about his shoulder that he could only swing a bat and not throw a ball? Seems a little troublesome to me... Spoke too soon. Apparently Sheffield is now in left at least a few times a week. His shoulder must be feeling better because wasn’t there something about his shoulder that he could only swing a bat and not throw a ball? Seems a little troublesome to me…

]]> By: Brenden http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83184 Brenden Mon, 05 May 2008 20:32:59 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83184 I agree with Andre. Sheffield is at least starting to hit now, Jones was just awful, an almost immediate when he came up to bat. And I second that question, will Matt Joyce be the starter in left tonight, or what is there plan? Not much news about it yet. I agree with Andre. Sheffield is at least starting to hit now, Jones was just awful, an almost immediate when he came up to bat. And I second that question, will Matt Joyce be the starter in left tonight, or what is there plan? Not much news about it yet.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83181 Mark in Chicago Mon, 05 May 2008 20:30:20 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83181 Sadly, we never really got to see JJ fire the ball into the ground from the leftfield corner as he tried to nail that runner at third with a 44-hopper. Alas, we shall make do. Interesting, I think, that they called up Matt Joyce and not Clete Thomas. I presume this means Thames will get the bulk of the ABs in left, which is fine except for making us almost entirely a right-handed lineup. I'm of the thinking that LH/RH splits are a little overrated, but it's always nice to have some balance. I'm a little miffed with DD on some of these trades, though. I certainly don't expect every trade to work out, and we didn't give up anything of value for Jones (Omar Infante, if memory serves), but it was a waste of resources, time and we got very little return on it. It feels like this was a rushed trade to get a lefty bat in the lineup, and the due diligence just wasn't there. I'm not sure what the alternatives were, but this one never felt like a good fit. Sadly, we never really got to see JJ fire the ball into the ground from the leftfield corner as he tried to nail that runner at third with a 44-hopper. Alas, we shall make do.

Interesting, I think, that they called up Matt Joyce and not Clete Thomas.

I presume this means Thames will get the bulk of the ABs in left, which is fine except for making us almost entirely a right-handed lineup. I’m of the thinking that LH/RH splits are a little overrated, but it’s always nice to have some balance.

I’m a little miffed with DD on some of these trades, though. I certainly don’t expect every trade to work out, and we didn’t give up anything of value for Jones (Omar Infante, if memory serves), but it was a waste of resources, time and we got very little return on it. It feels like this was a rushed trade to get a lefty bat in the lineup, and the due diligence just wasn’t there. I’m not sure what the alternatives were, but this one never felt like a good fit.

]]> By: Andre http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83178 Andre Mon, 05 May 2008 20:25:09 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83178 Are they bringing Joyce up to the 25 man roster or the 40? I'm gonna wait and see what Leyland ends up doing, but I would have thought if they were gonna bring a minor league outfielder up it would have been C Thomas. Before it sounds like I'm second guessing what hasn't happened yet, I would like to say I'm happy they're shaking things up. Dave - They're keeping Sheff because in his case there's hope of him overcoming injury and producing. JJ wasn't hurt and was still awful. Are they bringing Joyce up to the 25 man roster or the 40? I’m gonna wait and see what Leyland ends up doing, but I would have thought if they were gonna bring a minor league outfielder up it would have been C Thomas. Before it sounds like I’m second guessing what hasn’t happened yet, I would like to say I’m happy they’re shaking things up.

Dave -

They’re keeping Sheff because in his case there’s hope of him overcoming injury and producing. JJ wasn’t hurt and was still awful.

]]> By: Scott http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83177 Scott Mon, 05 May 2008 20:24:48 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83177 Jones was released because he is washed up.... not that hard to see. Jones was released because he is washed up…. not that hard to see.

]]> By: cib http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83176 cib Mon, 05 May 2008 20:21:08 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83176 While it is the right thing to do for our team, I always feel kind of sad for the player who can't do the job anymore. I am of course way too emotional about all aspects of baseball but I'm just wired that way. While it is the right thing to do for our team, I always feel kind of sad for the player who can’t do the job anymore. I am of course way too emotional about all aspects of baseball but I’m just wired that way.

]]> By: Dave T. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83175 Dave T. Mon, 05 May 2008 20:18:08 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/leyland-to-make-drastic-change-to-lineup/#comment-83175 Why did they release JJ? Seems like a pretty short leash, what about all this talk about proven track records? Why are they keeping Sheff? Why did they release JJ? Seems like a pretty short leash, what about all this talk about proven track records? Why are they keeping Sheff?

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