Comments on: Justin Verlander in 150 words or less http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 19 Mar 2010 02:08:16 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84463 Sean C. in Illinois Thu, 15 May 2008 01:11:40 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84463 Chris and Ryan: Very interesting indeed. I'm not as handy when it comes to sorting out statistics myself (I'm so s-l-o-w), so I'm glad when someone else does it for me. Ryan, re your last sentence, I think the way to look at it is that it's all part of one deal. All the changes are related. Can I tell you how? No. Chris and Ryan:

Very interesting indeed. I’m not as handy when it comes to sorting out statistics myself (I’m so s-l-o-w), so I’m glad when someone else does it for me.

Ryan, re your last sentence, I think the way to look at it is that it’s all part of one deal. All the changes are related. Can I tell you how? No.

]]> By: Ryan http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84440 Ryan Wed, 14 May 2008 22:36:30 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84440 On Fangraphs, check out his LOB% RHB split. Literally off the charts, to the bad. All of his other peripherals seem to be in line with a bad season, not this abomination he's having. I apologize if I'm (probably... nay almost definitely) oversimplifying, but does this indicate he's having trouble with righties while pitching out of the stretch? His BA against and WHIP against RHB overall are actually pretty good. His line against with empty bases is .198/.288/.297, compared to .358/.439/.593 (everyone is Albert Pujols!) with men on. I'm not sure where to get double splits for men on/against RHB, but I'd be interested to see them. At first blush, this seems to be just as big a, if not a bigger, deal than the velocity or BB/K rate. On Fangraphs, check out his LOB% RHB split. Literally off the charts, to the bad. All of his other peripherals seem to be in line with a bad season, not this abomination he’s having. I apologize if I’m (probably… nay almost definitely) oversimplifying, but does this indicate he’s having trouble with righties while pitching out of the stretch? His BA against and WHIP against RHB overall are actually pretty good. His line against with empty bases is .198/.288/.297, compared to .358/.439/.593 (everyone is Albert Pujols!) with men on. I’m not sure where to get double splits for men on/against RHB, but I’d be interested to see them. At first blush, this seems to be just as big a, if not a bigger, deal than the velocity or BB/K rate.

]]> By: jim-mt http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84438 jim-mt Wed, 14 May 2008 22:14:23 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84438 I heard Verlander in an interview earlier this year say he wanted to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. So this just might be the transition phase which hopefully will work out for many years. I heard Verlander in an interview earlier this year say he wanted to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. So this just might be the transition phase which hopefully will work out for many years.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84435 Chris in Dallas Wed, 14 May 2008 20:56:27 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84435 Sean: I ran those numbers on Verlander through baseball-reference and it shows he's getting lit up to a tune of .359/.490/.641 on pitches 76-100. By means of comparison, last year hitters put up a .257/.319/.374 line against him and in '06 it was .300/.342/.507. I'm not sure if that really means anything, though, because hitters are performing much better against him in pitches 25-75 as well. For whatever reason, he's absolutely dominating in his first 25 pitches of the game in '08 (.143/.234/.238). I guess he's like the anti-Jeremy Bonderman this year. Sean: I ran those numbers on Verlander through baseball-reference and it shows he’s getting lit up to a tune of .359/.490/.641 on pitches 76-100. By means of comparison, last year hitters put up a .257/.319/.374 line against him and in ‘06 it was .300/.342/.507. I’m not sure if that really means anything, though, because hitters are performing much better against him in pitches 25-75 as well. For whatever reason, he’s absolutely dominating in his first 25 pitches of the game in ‘08 (.143/.234/.238). I guess he’s like the anti-Jeremy Bonderman this year.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84433 Sean C. in Illinois Wed, 14 May 2008 19:50:49 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84433 Mark, that's just a guess, of the hopeful, look on the bright side variety. But it's hard to imagine that Chuck Hernandez would want to fix Verlander - 35 wins in 2 seasons! - for no good reason, or that Verlander, a bright and confident young pitcher if there ever was one, would go along with it if he wasn't fully on board with the program. I like the Tiger Woods example. Let's hope that's exactly what it is, including the result. Mark, that’s just a guess, of the hopeful, look on the bright side variety. But it’s hard to imagine that Chuck Hernandez would want to fix Verlander – 35 wins in 2 seasons! – for no good reason, or that Verlander, a bright and confident young pitcher if there ever was one, would go along with it if he wasn’t fully on board with the program.

I like the Tiger Woods example. Let’s hope that’s exactly what it is, including the result.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84431 Sean C. in Illinois Wed, 14 May 2008 19:24:45 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84431 Chris, Billfer may have posted the same thing about Bonderman, but there was some game thread post (I think) where someone - maybe Dave BW - whipped out some stats on Verlander pre- and post-75 pitches. Looked like a stark difference to me, but then again, there was no comparison to a norm. I would guess that few if any pitchers are BETTER after 75 pitches. But the point probably wasn't that, but where the cutoff point was for Verlander. Chris, Billfer may have posted the same thing about Bonderman, but there was some game thread post (I think) where someone – maybe Dave BW – whipped out some stats on Verlander pre- and post-75 pitches. Looked like a stark difference to me, but then again, there was no comparison to a norm. I would guess that few if any pitchers are BETTER after 75 pitches. But the point probably wasn’t that, but where the cutoff point was for Verlander.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84430 Mark in Chicago Wed, 14 May 2008 19:22:00 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84430 Good point, Sean C., kinda like Tigers Woods breaking down and then rebuilding his swing. I can see that. Frustrating in the short-term, though Good point, Sean C., kinda like Tigers Woods breaking down and then rebuilding his swing. I can see that.

Frustrating in the short-term, though

]]> By: greg http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84429 greg Wed, 14 May 2008 19:03:01 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84429 The last game I was at Verlander's fastball routinely hit 95-96, topping out at 97 a few times.....and I only 'caught' about 1/3 of the readings tops. Mark - that is correct, I read a couple of places early in the year that Justin was intentionally throwing slower to facilitate more movement on his pitches. The velocity is important because, all else being equal, guys with greater velocity rack up more K's and have greater success. Yes you can rack up the K's with a decrease in velocity, but you better improve in another area, deception, movement, control, etc....to compensate. The last game I was at Verlander’s fastball routinely hit 95-96, topping out at 97 a few times…..and I only ‘caught’ about 1/3 of the readings tops.

Mark – that is correct, I read a couple of places early in the year that Justin was intentionally throwing slower to facilitate more movement on his pitches.

The velocity is important because, all else being equal, guys with greater velocity rack up more K’s and have greater success.

Yes you can rack up the K’s with a decrease in velocity, but you better improve in another area, deception, movement, control, etc….to compensate.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84428 Chris in Dallas Wed, 14 May 2008 18:58:41 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84428 I think that was billfer posting about Bonderman. I could be mistaken. I think that was billfer posting about Bonderman. I could be mistaken.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84427 Sean C. in Illinois Wed, 14 May 2008 18:50:43 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84427 I remember someone posting something after Verlander's last start about stats indicating he's been consistently running out of steam this season at about 75 pitches. I remember someone posting something after Verlander’s last start about stats indicating he’s been consistently running out of steam this season at about 75 pitches.

]]> By: Chris in Dallas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84426 Chris in Dallas Wed, 14 May 2008 18:34:40 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84426 Plenty of guys don't throw 98 but rack up the K's. Johan Santana comes to mind. The only reason I really care is that a big drop in velo often indicates an injury. Jason Schmidt, anyone? Also a 98 mph pill makes Verlander's curve that much more devastating. But again, he should still be able to get guys out at 93. Plenty of guys don’t throw 98 but rack up the K’s. Johan Santana comes to mind. The only reason I really care is that a big drop in velo often indicates an injury. Jason Schmidt, anyone? Also a 98 mph pill makes Verlander’s curve that much more devastating. But again, he should still be able to get guys out at 93.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84425 Sean C. in Illinois Wed, 14 May 2008 18:10:46 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84425 Mark <b>If this is the case, it smacks of Chuck Hernandez essentially fixing what wasn’t broken and changing the way these guys pitch.</b> Or it could be a case of Hernandez fixing what was going to break or what he thought was breaking. I don't know. This could be an adjustment period we'll appreciate later. Maybe much later, like 2009. Mark

If this is the case, it smacks of Chuck Hernandez essentially fixing what wasn’t broken and changing the way these guys pitch.

Or it could be a case of Hernandez fixing what was going to break or what he thought was breaking. I don’t know. This could be an adjustment period we’ll appreciate later. Maybe much later, like 2009.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84424 Sean C. in Illinois Wed, 14 May 2008 18:05:32 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84424 That would be <i>pitcher</i>. That would be pitcher.

]]> By: Sean C. in Illinois http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84423 Sean C. in Illinois Wed, 14 May 2008 18:04:31 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84423 <b>Why does everyone think you need 98 mph heat to strike people out?</b> The idea of a picher who can simply blow it by everyone has a very strong appeal. It's glamorous. Maybe 2006 got us used to the idea that, as long as the Tigers had that, they were invincible. There sure was a lot of hoopla over triple-digits that year. Why does everyone think you need 98 mph heat to strike people out?

The idea of a picher who can simply blow it by everyone has a very strong appeal. It’s glamorous. Maybe 2006 got us used to the idea that, as long as the Tigers had that, they were invincible. There sure was a lot of hoopla over triple-digits that year.

]]> By: Mark in Chicago http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84422 Mark in Chicago Wed, 14 May 2008 17:58:29 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/05/justin-verlander-in-150-words-or-less/#comment-84422 I wonder if Verlander (and Bonderman, for that matter) are intentionally backing off velocity in order to add sink to their fastball. I recall Bondo saying at one point that he wanted to throw more 2-seamers with a lot of sink to induce more contact and keep the pitch count down. If this is the case, it smacks of Chuck Hernandez essentially fixing what wasn't broken and changing the way these guys pitch. Maybe they are down with velocity because they are off the HGH, or whatever. This is all speculation, obviously, but I wonder if there's anything going on here. I wonder if Verlander (and Bonderman, for that matter) are intentionally backing off velocity in order to add sink to their fastball. I recall Bondo saying at one point that he wanted to throw more 2-seamers with a lot of sink to induce more contact and keep the pitch count down.

If this is the case, it smacks of Chuck Hernandez essentially fixing what wasn’t broken and changing the way these guys pitch.

Maybe they are down with velocity because they are off the HGH, or whatever.

This is all speculation, obviously, but I wonder if there’s anything going on here.

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