At any rate, I agree with Ryan that the peripherals are pretty good and he most certainly won’t finish the season with an ERA north of 6. If they get approximately league average ERA out of Nate, he will be a steal given his salary of $4.25 million (remember, this is a league where Jason Marquis makes $7 million and Gil Meche makes $10 million).

No he hasn’t gotten blown out this year. He’s been very consistent in pitching 5 to 7 innings and giving up 4 to 5 runs. He has clustered his hits. Which could be a mental thing, a problem with pitching out of the stretch, or pure bad luck. If he maintains his BB/K ratio, however, his ERA almost certainly comes down.

Ryan, I think you nailed it right there. But where does his 6.91 ERA come from? Did he get blown out once
(can’t remember)?

I agree, Scott. No one is a bad investment by April 30 already. Not even Jacque Jones (though I still wish they’d move on to some other experiment there).

I admire taking the long view on stocking the farm system, but an underachieving 12-15 team with a high stake in winning NOW isn’t likely to pursue this with such a high-profile move as trading Robertson in mid-season.

You’re right that its early in the season to assess Willis’ future definitively, but its not too early to note some important warning signs. Since his 22 win season he has progressively deteriorated each passing year in almost every important category including era, whip, k’s and bb. his youth is a double edged sword because it leaves open the possibility of future improvement while doing nothing to improve the present situation. I haven’t seen the reports from his bullpen sessions and honestly i think that it would be irresponsible to put him back on the active roster without a very positive rehab stint in the minors. I’m not a professional scout, but I was shocked at how bad he was in his early outings. It was literally the worst I’ve seen an MLB pitcher perform. When I saw him go down with the hyper-extension I thought he had faked an injury to get out of the game (until i saw the replays). until they can be reasonably sure that he’s got it together, we can’t afford to put him out there. robertson can do a decent job of eating up innings as a lefty and he doesn’t walk 7. the whole thing blows cause i had high hopes for Willis (i love lefties!!!).

I’m revising my Tiger win prediction formula. (RUN AVERAGE, LAST 135 GAMES / 6) x 80 + 12 = 2008 TIGER WINS. Plugging some numbers in… A 5.2 average yields an 81-81 record. A 7.0 average – 105-57. Yes! I rest my case (ha ha).

This is the kind of offhand prediction that can’t be taken seriously. Unless I turn out to be right, in which case I will claim to have done searching analysis only a trained statistician would understand.

I definitely agree that Willis needs to work out his problems down in Toledo, but he belongs in the big league rotation if he’s healthy and effective.

At a minimum, sending Galarraga down give you some starting pitching depth, and by midseason, even Porcello could be able to contribute a start or two in an emergency. As Sean C. rightly points out, we are one injury away from having a major hole in the rotation to fill, so it makes sense to have guys with some experience around (even if it’s only 6-7 starts).

Sean -
There are always teams looking for a starting left-hander. We don’t need to get a major-leaguer in return, just a top ten prospect from someone’s farm system. The Tiger position players are getting a little long in the tooth, and the way the farm system has been decimated in the last half year, it would be good to begin to restock it.

I almost agree, but what could the Tigers get for Robertson that they need? You can’t just give him away, and they might end up only an injury away (Rogers or Willis) from living to regret the move. And Galarraga could pitch a no-hitter next time out and still be out when Willis is deemed healthy. That’s not what I would do, but it is what Leyland would do – I’m sure of it.

I agree with the sentiment “how can Granderson improve against lefties if he never sees them?” I don’t get it. Are the Tigers not a better team with Granderson in the lineup and in center field – period?

“they have invested too much time and pride in Dontrelle to demote him or trade him”

the only thing worse that a bad investment is to stick with that bad investment in the hope of a miracle turnaround. not to bust your b@lls, but that’s my biggest pet peeve is when teams hold on to guys that just never really pan out. i’m not saying the Tigers shouldn’t give Willis the chance to prove himself (early injuries) but I think he needs to do that in the minors (complete lack of control). if he can’t pitch effectively, it doesn’t really matter if they’re paying him 20mil a year or $20 a year…he just doesn’t belong.

as for Robertson, every year that i’ve watched him i’ve thought would be his breakout year and every year he hasn’t broken through. its a weird thing considering how many strikeouts and ground-ball double plays he induces. but he always seems to randomly get tagged for big innings. so i think that its time for him to go too, or for the Tigers to find him a different role (LF perhaps, he couldn’t be worse right?).

sean –

i hope you aren’t right, but i have a feeling we will end up needing the offense to average 6+ runs a game to really lock up the playoffs.