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The 2008 PECOTA’s are here

Baseball Prospectus has released it’s 2008 player projection system known as PECOTA. What’s available at this point isn’t the full results of the system, just the weighted mean. PECOTA offers projections across a spectrum which are available on the player cards which will be forthcoming. What we have now is the middle.

PECOTA is premium content so I won’t post all the projections here (I recommend a BP premium subsciption, at least for the next month or buy the annual). Still, I will note some items.


It was a surprisingly gloomy picture on offense when I opened up the spreadsheet. I didn’t expect them to forecast another batting title for Magglio Ordonez or another quad 20 for Granderson, but I was a little surprised how down some of the projections were.


The system likes the Tigers starters though.

If you want all the numbers, you’ll have to buy the book or a subscription. And keep in mind these are projections, not gospel. Players will over perform and under perform the numbers. But there is some science behind this stuff, and it’s a nice objective check compared to one’s gut – especially when it comes to your favorite players.

Take I75 North has some comments on the prospect projections.

Posted by on February 2, 2008.

Categories: 2008 Season

14 Responses

  1. Jacque Jones will never face a left-hander pitcher, greatly increasing his expected OPS. Plus, he’s a defensive addition.

    How do Tiger fans view Bonderman? What’s with his first inning struggles and late-season collapse last year. An injury? There’s just no way you can’t like his skills and peripherals. Is he another Glendon Rusch type?

    by Sky on Feb 2, 2008 at 7:39 pm

  2. The general consensus is that his late-season troubles were due to pitching through an injury (Bonderman’s said as much). The 1st inning problem can only be a bizarre psychological handicap.

    by Dave BW on Feb 2, 2008 at 8:00 pm

  3. Sky – It depends who you ask. I’m pro Bonderman, but he does have to put a full season together soon. Fans have tagged him as mentally weak which I don’t really buy into.

    As for his struggles last year, he was pitching with a sore elbow for quite awhile.

    by billfer on Feb 2, 2008 at 10:45 pm

  4. Stupid BP. How am I supposed to judge a player if they don’t even tell me his OE%?

    by Dave BW on Feb 3, 2008 at 3:15 pm

  5. Dave – you’re not.

    by Eric Cioe on Feb 3, 2008 at 4:15 pm

  6. seeing if the ban has been lifted

    by Dead Rabbit on Feb 3, 2008 at 5:04 pm

  7. It was never a ban. It was a one week suspension which I explained in the numerous emails I sent to you.

    by billfer on Feb 3, 2008 at 5:08 pm

  8. i’m worried about pitching staff.

    by fordfieldrow2 on Feb 3, 2008 at 6:02 pm

  9. Sky, I’m still pretty high on Bonderman as long as his elbow is healthy. He got off to a strong start last year and then completely fell apart when he tried to pitch through the elbow problem. The PECOTA estimate looks about right to me.

    He seems to get flustered on occasion when he doesn’t have his his best stuff but I think the mental aspect gets overplayed.
    The bigger problem is his lack of a good third pitch beyond his fast ball slider.

    by Lee Panas on Feb 3, 2008 at 11:33 pm

  10. Ah, yes. Spring Training is almost here, get ready for the numerous pieces on how Bondy is working hard on a changeup and how it’s really coming along well, maybe even how the old veteran Kenny R. is helping him with it. And then get ready to completely disregard that on 3/31 & beyond as won’t have a 3rd pitch whatsoever.

    by David G. on Feb 4, 2008 at 9:25 am

  11. David G.,

    If you go to the pitch f/x graphs for Bonderman, it shows that from a sample of about 800 pitches, he threw 5% changes. So he has it, but he probably throws 2-5 a game.

    by Eric Cioe on Feb 4, 2008 at 11:31 am

  12. That was kind of my point, to be honest, I was perhaps using a bit of exxageration. Obviously a pitch you throw 2-5 times a game is not exactly an effective pitch, you really can’t even set much up with it.

    by David G. on Feb 4, 2008 at 12:21 pm

  13. David -

    Come opening day, Bonderman will shock and awe us all with the unprecedented greatness of his changeup. It will make women swoon, men weep, and possibly cure cancer. Just you wait!

    by Dave BW on Feb 4, 2008 at 12:48 pm

  14. Dave BW haha on the cancer curing changeup. I think Bonderman will surprise some people if he can stay healthy. He really needs to refine the 3rd pitch though (where have I heard that before?). Methinks his elbow problems in the second half were due to throwing 3419 sliders in the first half. If he’s got a reliable third pitch, maybe he doesn’t have to do that…

    by Chris in Dallas on Feb 5, 2008 at 11:46 am

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