Comments on: Scouting Bonderman with pitch f/x

By: This Just In: Tigers are in trouble | Luft On Deck

This Just In: Tigers are in trouble | Luft On Deck — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 20:35:59 +0000

[...] is an average American League starting pitcher. He lacks either the repertoire (third pitch) or the health to be much more than that. Now, that’s not an entirely bad thing to be. It’s not an [...]

By: billfer

billfer — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 03:26:09 +0000

Scotsw - One thing to keep in mind is that there were simply more outings that with pitch f/x data after the all star break. So he’d have more of every pitch.

I don’t disagree about some of the outliers though. He was definitely erratic at times.

Ryan - nearly every park had been outfitted by the end of last year, so I’d imagine that we’ll have pretty close to a full year of data in 2008.

Rings - I don’t know about the battle part of it. I’ve seen him go out and tough out days without his best stuff. He does seem to get rattled at times, but I’d definitely say he’s a battler.

Barry - there are certain things we can do with baa for pitches. But keep in mind the pitch doesn’t happen in a vacuum and the pitches leading up to the at-bat deciding pitch play a role.

By: Scotsw

Scotsw — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 02:16:04 +0000

OK, you’re looking at the dispersal charts for a difference between the first and second halves of Bonderman’s season. Here are a few things that jumped out at me:

He threw his change-up four times as often during the second half — 10 or so vs. 40-odd times post-break!!! Clearly he was trying to throw the change after the break. Was that because the coaches were on him to do that, or to give his arm a break, or a little of both?

Another thing: The change-up has the same speed as the slider, but it doesn’t slide. In other words, Bondo’s slider looks to me like a change-up with benefits — why bother throwing the straight change, anyhow? If he could knock a couple mph off the change-up (a la Rodney), he’d have something.

Also looks like Bonderman threw a LOT more 2-seamers after the break. And ALL of the high 2-seamers he threw were after the break, as well as ALL of the 2-seamers which were wide right (from catcher’s POV). Also, the dozen farthest-right 4-seamers were all thrown after the break. Check the charts. Those pitches won’t fool anybody, and that puts Bondo behind in the count. It’s the outliers which show the control problems.

By: Joey C.

Joey C. — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 19:28:28 +0000

Haha!

Billfer man take it easy on beating yourself up over missing that inning. I don’t know how you find time to do any of this.

I’ve taking my swings at Bonderman the past few seasons and taken a lot of flak for it on this site. I SERIOUSLY don’t want to get into the failing to live up to expectations argument all over again. That being said, maybe with the title of ACE being squarely planted on Verlander’s shoulders this season, as well as the addition of the high-profile D-Train, some of those expectations will be tempered and the resulting lack of pressure will allow Jeremy to flourish. I certainly hope that this, along with a sustained return to full health will result in a sustained, full season of excellence from Jeremy.

By: Chris in Dallas

Chris in Dallas — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 17:00:48 +0000

One thing I noticed about Bonderman in ‘07 was a bit of a dip in velo over prior years. Where he was topping out at 95-96 with his four seamer in ‘06 and prior, he only seemed to be hitting 93 or so last year. He seemed to have greater movement with the 2 seamer than he had in previous years, though. Perhaps he was making a concerted effort to get more movement at the cost of a few mph. It seemed to be working for him until “The Elbow Problem”. I think this year will be kind of make-or-break for him in a way. Either he’s going to be a solid #2, or a maddeningly inconsistent #3 or #4 type starter for the balance of his career.

By: Ryan In Brooklyn

Ryan In Brooklyn — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 16:30:33 +0000

Question - any word on if all MLB parks will be fitted with the carmeras and what-not to get this data up for all games in ‘08? These posts are fascinating and as more complete data becomes available I would think analysis like this would really start to take off.

I know that GMs, scouts, etc. have been slow to accept Sabremetics, but this type of data seems like it could come into favor with the baseball establishment a little easier. Scouts love the radar gun. Seems like those pitch dispersion charts are just a natural evolution from the “gun”.

I will be interesting to see how this might affect the game.

By: Ian C.

Ian C. — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 15:31:35 +0000

I foresee frequent links back to this and the D-Train pitch f/x post throughout the season. Definitely a resource provided as a public service, Bill.

By: rings

rings — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 13:50:32 +0000

This is great stuff, Bill. And the above sentiments are right: his slider is dominant.
Put me in the “lack of a third pitch” crowd, however. Guys like JB are dominant when his big pitch - in this case, his slider - is working. But as anyone who’s pitched knows, some days, it just isn’t the same.
I would argue that between a few “off” days with the slider and his sometimes lack of command with his fastball (whether for health reasons or otherwise), it costs him runs and games - I think most observers would agree that he doesn’t show the same “battle” as a Robertson, Rogers or even Verly on the staff - whereas the top of the rotation pitchers learn how to win without their best stuff. Truth be told, his repertoire is more “closer stuff” than “starter stuff.”
A halfway decent off-speed pitch can be the equalizer, whether it be a straight change or traditional curveball (which few people throw any more).
It puts another plane - speed adjustment - into the hitters’ mind, rather than just location as his two fastballs, slider and current change (from your analysis) are essentially all “hard” stuff, w/in 10 mph.
Can he be good w/o the “third pitch?” Sure. But does the lack of a semi-effective third prevent him from taking the “next step” as a more consistent starter? I think so.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 07:13:16 +0000

Great writeup! I loved reading it and I especially love the second half comparison (even if it was inconclusive).

As I brought up a bit on the forum, I think part of Bonderman’s problem is that he doesnt have a lot of “hop” on his 4-seam like a lot of other pitchers. If you note, he doesnt get many swings and misses with either fastball. A lot of the top pitchers - Santana, Bedard, Verlander - and K-pitchers - Lincecum, O. Perez, J. Vazquez - all get a lot of their strikes swinging with fastballs in the upper half of the zone or high, out of the zone. These guys also all have a lot more vertical movement on their fastball.

I really think that part of Bonderman’s problem is that his fastball is more hittable than the velocity guns make scouts think. Anyone know if Bonderman tends to use his fastball more in the 1st inning than in later innings? Something like trying to establish it early?

By: Eric Cioe

Eric Cioe — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 05:25:06 +0000

I don’t know what ESPN considers a “hard-hit ball,” but in 2006, Bonderman’s slider was the least likely pitch in all of baseball to be hit hard:

“Well-hit average against”
Bonderman’s slider .105
Rivera’s cutter .111
Santana’s change .112

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb.....%3d2637860

That’s pretty good company. If his control comes back this year, even without a great change he can dominate.