Comments on: One lineup question answered http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:06:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Sky http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76923 Sky Wed, 27 Feb 2008 17:21:23 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76923 When your worst hitter is WAY worse than your second-worst, it make sense to bat him 8th, so his total lack of skill doesn't hurt the top of the lineup. But in the AL, that rarely happens, and the trade-off between "having a second lead-off hitter" and "giving the fewest PAs to your worst hitter" favors the second strategy (putting him ninth). When your worst hitter is WAY worse than your second-worst, it make sense to bat him 8th, so his total lack of skill doesn’t hurt the top of the lineup. But in the AL, that rarely happens, and the trade-off between “having a second lead-off hitter” and “giving the fewest PAs to your worst hitter” favors the second strategy (putting him ninth).

]]> By: TigerBlog » Blog Archive » Dontrelle Willis on the Mound and Todd Jones Gets the Start http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76899 TigerBlog » Blog Archive » Dontrelle Willis on the Mound and Todd Jones Gets the Start Wed, 27 Feb 2008 02:04:12 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76899 [...] against Florida Southern and Ivan Rodriguez is going to hit eight this year.  Be sure to check out Billfer’s analysis of how the Tigers lineup should shake out heading into opening day. Permalink | Posted in 2008 [...] [...] against Florida Southern and Ivan Rodriguez is going to hit eight this year.  Be sure to check out Billfer’s analysis of how the Tigers lineup should shake out heading into opening day. Permalink | Posted in 2008 [...]

]]> By: BobS. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76872 BobS. Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:51:48 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76872 Winning is the single thing that will keep most of the clubhouse happy. Of course Cabrera's satisfaction is not Leyland's only concern,but it's disingenous to bring up the subject of "human" issues and then pretend that it's not ultimately more important for Cabrera to see that the Tigers see him as The Man than to placate Rodriguez' eggshell ego or that of roving malcontent Sheffield. Batting Cabrera third makes sense on both counts.And,of course,batting Granderson ninth or platooning him against LHP. Winning is the single thing that will keep most of the clubhouse happy.
Of course Cabrera’s satisfaction is not Leyland’s only concern,but it’s disingenous to bring up the subject of “human” issues and then pretend that it’s not ultimately more important for Cabrera to see that the Tigers see him as The Man than to placate Rodriguez’ eggshell ego or that of roving malcontent Sheffield.
Batting Cabrera third makes sense on both counts.And,of course,batting Granderson ninth or platooning him against LHP.

]]> By: billfer http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76870 billfer Tue, 26 Feb 2008 10:48:55 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76870 Leyland's job isn't to just keep Cabrera happy, but to keep everyone happy. As for what will keep everyone happy, I have no idea and any of us who aren't in the clubhouse would actually have any clue. Leyland’s job isn’t to just keep Cabrera happy, but to keep everyone happy. As for what will keep everyone happy, I have no idea and any of us who aren’t in the clubhouse would actually have any clue.

]]> By: Mark L http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76862 Mark L Tue, 26 Feb 2008 06:58:01 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76862 Several points: --do you really think Sheffield will "stay happy" for very long in any one place, even with his favorite linup position, etc.? --if we are concerned about keeping someone happy, it should probably be Cabrera, seeing as he is yet to sign a long-term deal, and could be a franchise cornerstone for a decade (along with Granderson and Verlander) --However, Sheffield seems better at taking a walk than Cabrera, therefore putting him on base more often in front of Ordonez --I've often thought batting Renteria leadoff against lefties. Production-wise, dropping Granderson to #9 makes sense, but we don't want to shake his confidence. Hitting lefties better has to be his number one goal. Would letting him play, but not at leadoff, help? I hope so. --I don't know about LaRussa's theory, but consider this: We have a rather unique leadoff hitter in Granderson. That is, he hits a lot of homeruns. Therefore, having a #9 hitter with a good OBP (Renteria, NOT Rodriguez) actually makes sense, as someone is more likely to be on base when Granderson hits a homer (or a triple, for that matter). Therefore, against righties: 1. Granderson 2. Polanco 3. Cabrera 4. Ordonez 5. Sheffield 6. Guillen 7. Jones 8. Rodriguez 9. Renteria Against lefties: 1. Renteria 2. Polanco 3. Cabrera 4. Ordonez 5. Sheffield 6. Guillen 7. Thames 8. Rodriguez 9. Granderson The inevitable injuries (most likely to Sheffield) will shift Cabrera to DH and Inge to 3rd, necessitating some shifts in the lineup. Please, Leyland, whatever you do, do not bat Inge 3rd or 5th. Several points:
–do you really think Sheffield will “stay happy” for very long in any one place, even with his favorite linup position, etc.?
–if we are concerned about keeping someone happy, it should probably be Cabrera, seeing as he is yet to sign a long-term deal, and could be a franchise cornerstone for a decade (along with Granderson and Verlander)
–However, Sheffield seems better at taking a walk than Cabrera, therefore putting him on base more often in front of Ordonez
–I’ve often thought batting Renteria leadoff against lefties. Production-wise, dropping Granderson to #9 makes sense, but we don’t want to shake his confidence. Hitting lefties better has to be his number one goal. Would letting him play, but not at leadoff, help? I hope so.
–I don’t know about LaRussa’s theory, but consider this: We have a rather unique leadoff hitter in Granderson. That is, he hits a lot of homeruns. Therefore, having a #9 hitter with a good OBP (Renteria, NOT Rodriguez) actually makes sense, as someone is more likely to be on base when Granderson hits a homer (or a triple, for that matter).
Therefore, against righties:
1. Granderson
2. Polanco
3. Cabrera
4. Ordonez
5. Sheffield
6. Guillen
7. Jones
8. Rodriguez
9. Renteria

Against lefties:
1. Renteria
2. Polanco
3. Cabrera
4. Ordonez
5. Sheffield
6. Guillen
7. Thames
8. Rodriguez
9. Granderson

The inevitable injuries (most likely to Sheffield) will shift Cabrera to DH and Inge to 3rd, necessitating some shifts in the lineup. Please, Leyland, whatever you do, do not bat Inge 3rd or 5th.

]]> By: BobS. http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76853 BobS. Tue, 26 Feb 2008 00:35:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76853 In terms of keeping things happy and shiny,an argument could be made that now is the time to reinforce the notion to Cabrera that he is the lynchpin of the batting order and the team,now and in the future. Also,as we all know,against left handed pitching Granderson deserves to be in the ninth spot in the batting order. In terms of keeping things happy and shiny,an argument could be made that now is the time to reinforce the notion to Cabrera that he is the lynchpin of the batting order and the team,now and in the future.
Also,as we all know,against left handed pitching Granderson deserves to be in the ninth spot in the batting order.

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76850 Vince in MN Mon, 25 Feb 2008 19:39:13 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76850 Speaking of the 'LaRussa lineup theory", maybe on days when Willis pitches would be a good time to give Sheff a day off. In that case Leyland could use this lineup: 1.Granderson 2.Polanco 3.Cabrera 4.Ordonez 5.Guillen 6.Renteria 7.Jones/Thames 8.Willis 9.Rodriguez This gets Cabrera into the 3-slot, keeping those folks that want him to hit there happy and at the same time gets IRod in the 9-spot, keeping those people happy, while those who would like to see Willis hit would be happy too! Speaking of the ‘LaRussa lineup theory”, maybe on days when Willis pitches would be a good time to give Sheff a day off. In that case Leyland could use this lineup:

1.Granderson
2.Polanco
3.Cabrera
4.Ordonez
5.Guillen
6.Renteria
7.Jones/Thames
8.Willis
9.Rodriguez

This gets Cabrera into the 3-slot, keeping those folks that want him to hit there happy and at the same time gets IRod in the 9-spot, keeping those people happy, while those who would like to see Willis hit would be happy too!

]]> By: Paul http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76849 Paul Mon, 25 Feb 2008 19:35:38 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76849 I like the lineup with Jones 7th and Renteria 9th. It sets up well for Leyland to keep basically keep the order the same for lefty pitchers. Put Thames in at 7th and switch Granderson and Renteria at 1 and 9. Everyone keeps their same spot and there are back to back leadoff hitters at the top and bottom. I like the lineup with Jones 7th and Renteria 9th. It sets up well for Leyland to keep basically keep the order the same for lefty pitchers. Put Thames in at 7th and switch Granderson and Renteria at 1 and 9. Everyone keeps their same spot and there are back to back leadoff hitters at the top and bottom.

]]> By: Vince in MN http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76848 Vince in MN Mon, 25 Feb 2008 19:10:14 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76848 As far as RBI situations go, another way to look at it is what 4 batters would you rather have hitting in front of Cabrera: Rodriguez, Jones/Thames, Granderson, Polanco Or Granderson, Polanco, Sheffield, Ordonez I like the second option better myself. This presupposes , of course, that Sheffield is back to normal. As far as shuffling the lineup goes, I imagine Leyland is going to do this some anyway, with injuries, days off, some platooning, etc. How many different lineups did he use last year? I seem to recall that he used many different ones. I assume that will happen less this year, but still, since he likes to keep his players 'fresh', this is going to happen some. As far as RBI situations go, another way to look at it is what 4 batters would you rather have hitting in front of Cabrera:

Rodriguez, Jones/Thames, Granderson, Polanco
Or
Granderson, Polanco, Sheffield, Ordonez

I like the second option better myself. This presupposes , of course, that Sheffield is back to normal. As far as shuffling the lineup goes, I imagine Leyland is going to do this some anyway, with injuries, days off, some platooning, etc. How many different lineups did he use last year? I seem to recall that he used many different ones. I assume that will happen less this year, but still, since he likes to keep his players ‘fresh’, this is going to happen some.

]]> By: Eric Cioe http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76847 Eric Cioe Mon, 25 Feb 2008 18:51:57 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76847 Brian P, La Russa was the first thing that popped into my mind when I read about this. I'm not sure how the strategy works, though I seem to remember seeing an article on the Hardball Times about it. Maybe I'll read it when I get a chance and see whether they think it's a good or bad idea. Brian P,

La Russa was the first thing that popped into my mind when I read about this. I’m not sure how the strategy works, though I seem to remember seeing an article on the Hardball Times about it. Maybe I’ll read it when I get a chance and see whether they think it’s a good or bad idea.

]]> By: Jeff Molby http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76842 Jeff Molby Mon, 25 Feb 2008 17:39:58 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76842 <blockquote> I know it’s foreign for a stat-guy like myself to advocate those “softer” human issues. However, given that there is so little difference in expected output, shiny happy productive players will help to insure that the most comes from the lineup. </blockquote> And that's what makes you so good. It never would have occured to most stat-guys to bother writing that paragraph.

I know it’s foreign for a stat-guy like myself to advocate those “softer” human issues. However, given that there is so little difference in expected output, shiny happy productive players will help to insure that the most comes from the lineup.

And that’s what makes you so good. It never would have occured to most stat-guys to bother writing that paragraph.

]]> By: Brian P http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76841 Brian P Mon, 25 Feb 2008 15:44:33 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76841 Does anyone think Leyland is using La Russa's "pitcher batting eighth" theory? Obviously Pudge isn't a pitcher, but he's presumably the "worst" hitter in the line up. If you put Jones or Renteria at nine, the top of the order might have more RBI chances. Or so La Russa would say. Does anyone think Leyland is using La Russa’s “pitcher batting eighth” theory? Obviously Pudge isn’t a pitcher, but he’s presumably the “worst” hitter in the line up. If you put Jones or Renteria at nine, the top of the order might have more RBI chances. Or so La Russa would say.

]]> By: Mike G http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76840 Mike G Mon, 25 Feb 2008 14:56:15 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76840 Just thinking aloud, I kinda wonder if it would make the most sense to have our 3-6 be: Sheffield, Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen (in that order). Ordonez still has Guillen behind him like last year, and Cabrera gets sandwiched between two elite hitters which should get him good pitches to hit and ease any transition to the AL. Plus Magglio was very good at putting the ball in play and he would have two guys on base ahead of him a ton. Incidentally, with as much of an impact as Sheffield had on the rest of our lineup as far as helping them increase walks and cut Ks, I wonder if he can help Cabrera cut his Ks and really take the next big step forward for his career. Just thinking aloud, I kinda wonder if it would make the most sense to have our 3-6 be: Sheffield, Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen (in that order).

Ordonez still has Guillen behind him like last year, and Cabrera gets sandwiched between two elite hitters which should get him good pitches to hit and ease any transition to the AL. Plus Magglio was very good at putting the ball in play and he would have two guys on base ahead of him a ton.

Incidentally, with as much of an impact as Sheffield had on the rest of our lineup as far as helping them increase walks and cut Ks, I wonder if he can help Cabrera cut his Ks and really take the next big step forward for his career.

]]> By: ChicagoJoe http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76839 ChicagoJoe Mon, 25 Feb 2008 14:48:31 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76839 I think this explains why Leyland last week said he expects big things out of Jaque Jones. I also like the idea of keeping Ordonez and Sheffield in the same spots as last year. Magglio himself said a big part of his success last year was watching how the pitchers pitched to Sheffield because he knew they were going to try to do the same thing to him. I love the optimizer tool i was playing with it last week. If our lineup had the same statistics as last year it will score 6.27 runs a game! But whats up with the Pecota average? 5.25! That is 850 runs on the season. Pecota seems to be assuming that many of our stars will get injured, which is a reasonable given the age and history of Sheffield, Guillen, Polonco, and Ordonez. But if this team stays healthy the total runs on the season will be comfortably above 900 and closer to 1000. I think this explains why Leyland last week said he expects big things out of Jaque Jones. I also like the idea of keeping Ordonez and Sheffield in the same spots as last year. Magglio himself said a big part of his success last year was watching how the pitchers pitched to Sheffield because he knew they were going to try to do the same thing to him.

I love the optimizer tool i was playing with it last week. If our lineup had the same statistics as last year it will score 6.27 runs a game! But whats up with the Pecota average? 5.25! That is 850 runs on the season. Pecota seems to be assuming that many of our stars will get injured, which is a reasonable given the age and history of Sheffield, Guillen, Polonco, and Ordonez. But if this team stays healthy the total runs on the season will be comfortably above 900 and closer to 1000.

]]> By: jason http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76838 jason Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:26:30 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/02/one-lineup-question-answered/#comment-76838 Well, you know Leyland doesn't like to shuffle the lineup around when there are injuries (remember Casey batting 3rd last year?), and I can almost guarantee Sheff will will miss some time due to some injury. So, if Sheff is in the #3 slot, that means more bench replacements batting 3rd for us. I think it makes more sense based on Sheffield's health to bat him 5th. Well, you know Leyland doesn’t like to shuffle the lineup around when there are injuries (remember Casey batting 3rd last year?), and I can almost guarantee Sheff will will miss some time due to some injury. So, if Sheff is in the #3 slot, that means more bench replacements batting 3rd for us. I think it makes more sense based on Sheffield’s health to bat him 5th.

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