http://www.mlbtraderumors.com

April, 2011:

C – ?
1B – Guillen – 35
2B – Polanco – 35
SS – Renteria – 35
3B – Cabrera – 28
RF – ?
CF – Granderson – 30
LF – Thames – 34(vs. lefties)/?(platoon guy)
DH – Ordonez – 37
——
1 – Verlander – 28
2 – Bonderman – 28
3 – Porcello – 22
4 – Willis – 29
5 – Robertson – 33
CL/setup – Zumaya – 26
—–

A couple holes to fill, but not many…..doesn’t exactly look like ‘chopped liver’ to me. In fact, that looks like a very solid, and still young(in 2011) rotation. Infield would have decreased range by then, but that shouldn’t be a disaster.

There’s also plenty of time to reload through the draft or free agency, and only a couple of spots to worry about.

http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc.....ET2006.htm

I remember getting half of my section to chant “M-V-P” when Jeter hit into the double play. We did it again on his next ab, the world’s weakest grounder back to the Gambler…

Granderson’s long, long home run sailing deep into the Detroit sky seemed to take a day to land…

Casey knocking Johnson out of the game with a ripped double….

Matsui, Giaimbi caught looking. And looking REALLY foolish doing so…

Rogers tipping his hat to the crowd…. Friggin goose bumps just typing it…

By the end you could see the Yankees were in a state of shock… The crowd going crazy, the Tigers ripping them in every aspect of the game. Nope, that series ended when Rogers walked off the mound in the 8th…

Sorry, what was this thread about again? I seemed to have been daydreaming….

A fair point on Meche.

Although I would not take him and his salary and contract over Bondo, Nate, D-Train, or the Gambler.

-I still think Bondo has more upside.
-I like Nate for what we pay him (I am not researching this, but if memory serves it is in the ballpark that Nate is about 4 million cheaper than Gil)
-I like D-Train’s age and upside, though his contract could become too bloated in the blink of an eye.
-And I like the Gambler waaaay better for two reasons: His one year contract this year, and Kenny gets a life time free pass from me for DESTROYING the Yankees in Game 3 in ‘06. Homer reason to be sure, but that one I will NEVER forget. Magg’s home run was memorable, but that Series was decided. Steet was pitching in the 19th consecutive inning and his 82nd consecutive day (sarcasm there lads and lasses). That series was D-O-N-E. Nice shot Maggs, but for me the memory of ‘06 was when the Yankees, WITH THEIR GREATEST LINE-UP EVER were set to destroy the Kitties. 19 out 19 at ESPN had the Yanks that series. Everyone thought Verlander’s gutty performance in game 2 was a nice “show me” effort. The Yanks were supposed to come in with Randy Acne Face and dime the Tigers and playoff choker Rogers… Bong! Not quite, there East Coast Media Biased Pinheads. I am fairly certain Hideki Matsui is STILL talking to himself after that last change-up…

Wow. Sorry. But that rant felt GREAT.

However, I took a swipe at Meche that was perhaps a little unwarrented and give you props for calling me out. Mea culpa.

Based on last year’s stats, Meche ranks ahead of all of our starters, though only slightly ahead of Verlander (ERA+ 128 vs. 125). I would never claim Meche to be the superior talent to Justin, but at the moment I’d take him over any of our other starters without a second thought.

Good point except that there are times when a manager can massage rotations in order to get #1 guys more starts. For example, Bonderman (our Opening Day starter and considered #1 at the time) had two starts before our #5 Durbin got his first. So managers try to have a “slotting” system to have their best pitchers go as often as possible. Because they are worried first and foremost about their own team first (The Tigers wouldn’t worry about facing Sabathia if Cleveland wasn’t on the schedule for the next month) you often time see #1’s facing other number ones as a result of a manager looking to get his best on the field as soon as possible.

Of course this is not gospell, I did indicate that it was. Pitchers can fade, no question Verlander is our #1 this year, and injuries can occur, Kenny for us and Francisco for Minny.

My point to your rebuttle is that it is not as random as your post would imply. It is not “just” as likely that a #1 faces a #5. Bondo opened against the best and lo and behold his 3rd start was against Halladay. His forth start was against Gil Meche, who granted is about a #1 as Grilli, was none the less KC’s number one guy.

Like I said this system isn’t like clockwork, but the best often, I would argue usually, gets sent up against the other teams best. During the season Bondo faded, Verlander took over number one and was sent, when possible, against the other teams best. Or at least the top of their rotation.

Were I Jim Leyland and have the luxery of our line-up going into a 3 game series I would do my best to try and take two of the games by arranging a rotation where Verlander goes up against their best (I will take Verlander over anyone in the AL with the possible exception of Becket and Santana), I would try to have our #2 battle against their #2, and I would look to take the series with our superior back end of our rotation guys. By and large I consider Rogers, Robertson, and either Bondo or Willis better than most any other team’s #3,#4,#5 not located on Lake Erie or Boston Harbor, especially given our line-up. No excuse to lose a series to KC, Tampa, Seattle, Baltimore….not this year.

It isn’t an exact science, but it isn’t random either.

I agree with EZ. I’d take a 15 win season from DTrain in a second. (And 4 .11 ERA projected for Rogers from ZiPS? Wow).

Wonderful work. Great post. This is a situation where sabermetrics shine.

As I said at another Tigers website, I would consider a 14-15 win season with D-Train eating up 200+ innings a huge success. I think a 20 win season is unrealistic and I hope fans don’t expect too much. If D-Train can eat up innings and thereby saving our biggest problem, the bullpen, undue headaches then I think we will have gone a long way to making the playoffs.

Knowing D-Train gave up so many long balls, it gave me great relief to see the vast expanses of the Copa take away many of those… Further many of his super-imposed home runs just barely cleared the fence. In the dead-ball cold weather months of April and May many of those balls that just cleared will be fitting snuggly in our D’s leather…

I would love to see D-train battle a tough season in the 2 slot. Maybe go 13-13. That would let Bondo and Robertson dominate against the oppossing teams 4-5 pitchers. I prefer the Gambler be in the three slot with his diet of slow junk in between the fireballing Willis and Bondo. Of course watching Willis dominate in the 4 slot is desirable as well. I just think at this point he has the better ability (mentally) to compete at the 2 slot ahead of Bondo. Let Bondo get the second half of last year off of his mind by facing inferior #4 opponants.

Again, great work Bilfer. Much food for thought.

If we have a 4.25 era, we give up 688 runs in a year. I forget what the pre-cabrera lineup projections were, but if we average 5.5 runs a game, which I think/hope is pretty reasonable, we score 891.

Run the win expectation formula on those numbers and you get 101 wins. Just saying.

Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Justin Verlander 25 3.76 15 8 30 30 189.0 182 79 20 53 156
Kenny Rogers* 43 4.11 9 6 21 21 127.0 131 58 13 42 61
Dontrelle Willis* 26 4.34 14 13 35 35 224.0 241 108 23 77 162
Jeremy Bonderman 25 4.34 12 10 30 30 197.0 205 95 23 51 166
Nate Robertson* 30 4.45 12 11 30 30 186.0 197 92 22 60 116