Comments on: links for 2007-11-20

By: billfer

billfer — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 13:43:17 +0000

Greg - I’m working on a post about the 40 man that should be up this weekend

By: Don

Don — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 13:37:47 +0000

Also, minnesota had a .391 team slugging % last year and just lost hunter, the only guy with a .500. That production won’t be replaced in 2008. Morneau and mauer are solid, cuddyer and kubel are below average at their positions, and the rest is pure garbage. they have no good hitters near-ready in the minors. That’s not something that gets fixed with a couple trades or FA signings. even if they get a hughes/cano package for santana and their pitching is lights out they’d still be lucky to win 82 games with that offense.

By: Don

Don — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 13:22:23 +0000

Sure, things have to break right for the tigers to get into the playoffs. I’m not worried about minnesota, they’re looking to compete in 09-10, not in 08. they’ll have decent enough pitching but a lineup completely full of holes - they’ll get haul for santana, but not something that plugs enough holes for them to win more than 82-84 games.

I also don’t think the indians are necessarily a 95 win team, by any means. Since we’re talking pythagoreans, cleveland had 96 wins last year but their runs for/against showed that they were more in line for a 91-71 record. Their starting pitching is shallow and will take a step back in 08 - carmona threw 155 more innings in 07 than in 08, CC threw over 260 innings last year after averaging less than 200 over the previous 6 years. That matters. Then byrd, westbrook, lee, sowers? no thanks. They have a solid pen, but their offense is no better than detroit’s, for sure. I think the central comes down to indians and tigers each winning between 89-91, I definitely don’t see us as inferior to cleveland. the wildcard will come out of the east though.

By: Mike R

Mike R — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 05:20:34 +0000

Don: I pretty much agree with those assessments of the runs scored/allowed. Honestly, I think this is closer to a 87-89 win team then a 91-94 win team. And thus, I think we’re a 2nd — possibly 3rd — place team in the AL Central. I only put in a possible 3rd place finish solely dependent on if the Twins trade Santana. If they get a good package back — Like Robby Cano and Phil Hughes — I think with Scott Baker, Matt Garza, and the return of Liriano, that team could leap frog the Tigers. But that’s just my speculation without delving into any sort of depth regarding the Twins (with a ton of time and the entire Winter Meetings to go, too. So they could upgrade/down grade a lot over the next month or so).

By: greg

greg — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 19:35:43 +0000

Billfer - anyone left off the 40 man roster you see as a potential rule-5 ‘casualty’?

By: David

David — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 16:35:06 +0000

Hah yep I mean anyone who is playing out there is important, but I think that the most important positions on the field to have top notch defenders are catcher,SS and CF - where most of the balls end up.

Casey picked most everything that came his way if I remember correctly, I’m just not sure how much difference Guillen will make over Casey.

Rentaria over Guillen however….

The thing that I do think it will help is his offense and his durability.

If he stays healthy all year it would make me happy.

By: Don

Don — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 16:06:57 +0000

Doh! This is why I’m a attorney, not an accountant. The last couple years the tigers averaged around 60 unearned runs a year.

If you have a 4.00 era and give up 60 unearned runs a year that works out to a 4.37 runs/game. so with the 5 runs/game example a 4.00 era and 4.37 runs/game, that would work out to 92 wins - which makes more sense.

anyways - it usually works out to be that an additional 10 runs scored or 10 runs prevented over the course of a year equals one win, so My above numbers are probably 6 wins too optimistic given the unearned runs thing.

So what’s realistic? 5.25 runs a game and an era around 4.25 with 60 unearned runs gets us 91 wins. Add 10 runs for or subtract 10 runs allowed to get us additional wins.

By: Kurt

Kurt — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 15:17:32 +0000

While it’s possible you included this Don, what about unearned runs?

By: Don

Don — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 14:11:28 +0000

Also, what guillen lacks defensively - range, arm - are not all that important at first base, and what guillen still has defensively - good hands, footwork - is the most important. Casey was fine at first, but guillen should be an upgrade after a few more months of experience there.

By: Don

Don — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 13:57:04 +0000

Well, if you have a calculator, bill james’ pythagorean win expectation formula, a calculator and a few minutes, you can plug in a team’s expected runs scored per game and team era and get their expected wins. I had all those things:
if the tigers score 5.25 runs per game (in the middle of james’ offensive output projections) and have a 4.75 team era (worse than this year’s 4.57), they should have 89 wins.
If they score 5.25 a game and have a 4.50 era, that works out to 93 wins.
5 runs a game scored and a 4.00 era works out to 98 wins.
all in theory anyways.