In order to reach the playoffs next year, the Tigers will need to be better than at least one of the following three teams: the Indians, Red Sox, Yankees. There are also a couple of other teams that could compete with the Tigers for the division and/or the Wild Card … the Twins are probably the most threatening if they don’t move Santana, but also possibly the Blue Jays, Mariners, White Sox. Who knows — maybe even the A’s or the Devil Rays. But the main focal point is those three clubs: the Indians, Red Sox, and Yankees.

Look at the Indians’ roster. Look at how young that talent is. Look at how much of it is locked up long-term. Look at how more is on the way in the farm system. Look at how the Indians have spent next to nothing on payroll, and have the capacity to increase that significantly in anticipation of much improved attendance at Jacobs Field next year. The Indians are scary.

Look at the Red Sox’ roster. Look at how much depth they have. Look at how much of their talent is locked up long-term. Look at players like Ellsbury and Buchholz that are poised to become big contributors next year. Look at how much money they have. The Red Sox are scary.

The Yankees? Well, you can envision some doomsday scenarios for them: say A-Rod, Posada and Rivera all leave. Say that 2008 is the year when Jeter starts to show his age. Still, the news is not all good. The Yankees have more money than anybody else in baseball. And all of the sudden, they have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy are all big impact starting pitchers, and they’re all poised to be big contributors to the major league club next year. Money and player development: these are the engines of championships. And the Yankees have plenty of both. The Yankees are scary.

Could the Tigers reach the playoffs if they stand pat, which means going with Santiago at SS, and maybe Jurrjens in the rotation, and so forth? Certainly. Teams with less talent than that make the post-season all the time. I’m watching two of them play in the NLCS right now. But they’d need a little bit of good fortune. Everyone stays healthy, or Cameron Maybin is the Rookie of the Year, or something unexpected happens with the Yankees or the Indians.

In today’s American League, I’d guess that the Tigers need to get to about 93 wins before they’re better than 50:50 to make the post-season, and I don’t think you get there without making some fairly material improvements to the roster this winter. The team does not need a complete makeover, but it does need Dombrowski to have an active winter, and to land his blows where he chooses to attack.

Look at the Red Sox’ roster.

Inge, over the last 4 seasons offensively had a weighted average Runs Created total of 75.5. Throw in that in 2007 he was worth 12.7 runs in the field and that’d kick the total up to 88.2 runs. Or, (since an average defender at 3B is a 0.0 runs since they don’t help nor hurt the team), he’s been nearly 15 (14.8-ish) runs better then the average 3B.

Just thought I’d throw that out there. Even though I weighted it for 10% weighting for 2004, 20% for 2005, 30% for 2006 and 40% for 2007, his 05 and 06 campaigns are carrying his totals, but I think offensively being about average (75-ish runs created) is reasonable. Maybe around 70 runs created.

Have to agree about getting Raburn in more games. But will it actually happen?

True he needs to work on contact and his approach against RHP.

It’s why I’ve said againand again INGE should leadoff against Lefties and Granderson should bat 9th.

and against rightys Inge should work on just putting the bat on the ball, maybe use a lighter bat, ask Polanco he seems to have it down.

The guy is too talented to not figure this out.

If he ends up hitting .250 for the rest of his career the reason it will be his head that is to blame which is too bad.

Also btw his OB% was higher in 2007 than in 2006, he just hit half as many long-bombs.

There is a reason he was a 2nd round pick.

The Inge problem (at least concerning this year) justifies your dread. Check out his batting vs R/L splits here:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/pl.....pe=Batting

Note the .209 BA vs RH pitching. In ’04, ’05, and ’06 he was consistently in the mid .250s – not great, but respectable at least. In ’03, he was at .182. Clearly, he has to make some adjustment next year or he will be in danger falling to the Nick Punto level (with more Ks!). Personally, I don’t expect this to happen, but l hope I am wrong. I wouldn’t mind seeing Raburn get more starts at 3B, but given Leyland’s penchant for sticking with failing players for too long (e.g. Neifi, Monroe), I don’t have much hope there either.

Also, if you compare Inge to all thirdbasemen at the HT site, he kind of falls off a bit. With the exception of A-Rod and Lowell, the NL seems to have a big edge in the number of good hitting thirdbasemen.

Inge is definitely way above average defensively using the various range factor computations.

In the end, all the complaining about Inge and Rodriguez is moot, since, come opening day, it’s 99% sure that they are both going to be in the starting lineup.

You did not read at all what I wrote.

I don’t know if our offense will be as good, but it will be one of the better ones – especially if we can get another good offensive player at SS or LF.

The Blue Jays this year are a perfect example.

Pitching wins – they won 83 games

I think Bonderman will be a dominant pitcher soon.

I think Robertson is a good pitcher also

check out this site

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....8;type=reg

Jurrjens is not MLB ready (I’ll believe so when he chooses to feature something other then his fastball and the occasional change up that acts like a batting practice fastball) Andrew Miller was mishandled and has shown he’s not ready.

Bonderman takes the big step forward he was starting to take in April-June last year. 15+ wins, 220+ K’s next year. Him and Verlander have to carry the rotation and if Kenny resigns then that’s a solid 3 I’ll go to bat with.

But, Magglio will come back to earth and probably hard. If he hits over .320 I would be surprised.
Granderson won’t slug over .550 and it’s more likely he drops back to around .485-ish.

The big keys to this team rest on Bonderman and Sheffield being a big enough threat in the lineup to draw a lot of walks.

If we score around 825-830 runs and with the back end of the bullpen (assuming Todd Jones comes back) stays healthy, or gets better with a Gagne (who’s time in Boston does not undo the fact that he was dominant in a small ballpark in Texas for more then the first half of the season) We should be able to drop the runs allowed total to around 725-ish. A 100 run spread should be good enough to get us into the 90′s (I think the pythagorean record for that would be around 91 wins with 830 runs score, 725 allowed) and be closer to the Indians, who were 5 games better then their 91-71 pythagorean record indicated they should’ve been.

I really think a low-90′s win total wins the Central next year. I think the Twins pitching will be better with Liriano coming back (granted he’s coming off of TJ Surgery) and a lights out bullpen. The Royals will finish in 4th next year with a full year of Billy Butler in the lineup and a much better year from Alex Gordon and an improved staff next year.

As far as Inge’s contract goes, it surely does make me wish this team would return to it’s former tight-wad ways. Because they are stuck paying him $6 mill a year, they are compelled to play him everyday, while we get to watch him whack air. If the Tigers were on the spending level of Colorado, Arizona or Cleveland, then a player of such flaws could easily be benched, traded or cut.

The psychology of sunk costs grips the mid to high market teams. I think this partially explains why these types of teams don’t win in proportion to the dollars they spend.