Net Win Shares Value is Dave Studeman’s attempt to assess the value of a player and their contract. He released some of his findings today, and there are several Tigers items worth pointing out.
Net Win Shares Value looks at the 3 different classes of players (not eligible for arbitration, arbitration eligible, and free agents) and compares the win shares above bench (the number of win shares that an average bench player would accrue given the playing time) to a player’s salary above the minimum.
The Best
As to the Tiger related items, Detroit had 2 of the top 10 best values in 2007. Not surprisingly Curtis Granderson made the list at 9th as he turned in a season that has landed him on many MVP ballots at just a hair over the minimum salary. What is more surprising, at least to me, is that Magglio Ordonez was the 5th best value on the list. Ordonez season was outstanding, but he also made $15 million last year. For him to “overcome” his salary to be that much of a value is a testament to how truly amazing his performance was.
Also of note on the top 10 best values list, there were 3 Cleveland Indians: Fausto Carmona, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez. So it’s easy to see why the Indians had the success they had even with a smaller payroll. It also means that half of the top 10 best values in 2007 came from the AL Central.
The Worst
The Tigers had 2 guys on the list of the 10 worst values as well. Can you guess them? No, one of them isn’t Brandon Inge. Craig Monroe and Mike Maroth finished 7th and 8th on the list. Neither was paid a whole lot this past season, they were just that bad. Maroth though did a lot of his damage with the Cardinals as he went from “not good” in the AL to “really, really bad” in the National League.
Now there is one area where this method fails to capture the worst values. If a player is injured, he doesn’t really show up as a poor value for not playing. So a Kenny Rogers who missed most of the year, doesn’t show up as a bad value because when he did play, he played well. So a Carl Pavano is actually a worse value than many other players, but he wouldn’t show up on this list.
Getting their money’s worth
Dave also posted a table that highlights the teams that got the most and the least from their free agents. The Tigers finished 3rd best, which doesn’t really surprise because their free agent class players were mostly productive. In addition to Ordonez, the Tigers got great value in Placido Polanco who turned in a very good season – and cheaply. Carlos Guillen was good as usual, and in the last year of his old deal he was still cheap. And Todd Jones probably contributed more than Jose Mesa detracted
2007 Net Win Shares Value — The Hardball Times
Do injuries actually have a financial cost? Don’t they insure at least some of those contracts?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/magglios-millions/
link on that page about mags from 2005…good read
Very, very interesting stuff.
I just looked up Victor Martinez’s contract and I’m shocked at how little he’s going to be paid for the duration. 5 years, $15.5 million, and the max in any year of it will be 2009’s $5.7 million. There’s and option for 2010 for $7 million. For production from the catcher’s spot like his, that’s way underpaid. Very shrewd and why Mark Shapiro is one of the 2 best GM’s currently employed in baseball (i think Paul DePodest is a top 3 GM when he’s employed, as well. I love everything he did for the Dodgers that Ned Coletti is undoing).
Sizemore made $750K this year but it goes up to $3 million next year and then keeps escalating. Such good deals to lock up the young kids.
We should look that way when we look to extend Granderson’s deal and go with a solid Sizemore-like deal.