http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....pid=452121

http://baseballanalysts.com/ar....._minor.php

These guys compete in pressure situations at every step of the way, and at the time each one has the same pressure. For a guy in the minors trying to make a career out of baseball, do you really think he feels any less pressure in the 9th inning than a guy at the major league player does?

Oh absolutely, without question. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that one. It’s interesting how perceptions can differ from person to person. I see it as a dynamic, and each situation is completely different, and each affecting players in completely different ways, depending on their upbringing experiences, character.

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But this was talking about the ability to handle clutch or pressure situations, and you don’t make it to the big leagues without being able to do that throughout your career.

Respectfully disagree, as maybe in the minors, nothing was seen as pressure. Especially these ‘can’t miss’ prospects who know they’ll make it no matter what. There’s no pressure, their ticket is already stamped to the majors, the team has invested too much money. Numerous athletes have a sense of entitlement, including prospects(in particular, I’ve read the Devil Rays and Dodgers prospects are this way). But they’re not on the big stage yet. Big difference playing in front of 1,500 in a minor league stadium that’s a dump, and devoid of energy, then being plugged in the spotlight in the Big Apple, playing in front of 40k each night with intense media scrutiny.

Studied again and again. So what, lots of things have been studied, and I’ve only heard Sabermetricians pontificate, or even accept, such a premise.

Do you really think ARod comes to the plate when it’s 9-2 and says “okay, time to hit a home run”?

Huh? Did someone say this? maybe you were responding to someone else.

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Do you really think something as instinctive as hitting a baseball is like putting or shooting a free throw? There’s no time to think about it . . .

Obviously there are similarities and differences. Different sports, same human element, unless you’re saying that AROD is a vulcan.

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Prospectus did the most thorough examination of clutch hitting.

Ah, a Baseball Prospectus disciple, I subscribe and read them. Some good stuff there, but also alot of strange conclusions that are rather amusing. I’ve read their clutch hitting ‘arguments’ and, the more I read, the more I’m convinced that they have nothing. They usually start with a conclusion, and then cherry pick or massage the data to ‘prove’ what they believe in the first place.

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I think fans project their own nervousness in a key situation on the hitter. I also think many fans instinctively dislike certain star players, so the notion that they aren’t “clutch” is one way to dismiss the statistical evidence.

Can’t speak for other fans, but I’m never ‘nervous’ when I watch AROD.

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I also think many fans instinctively dislike certain star players, so the notion that they aren’t “clutch” is one way to dismiss the statistical evidence.

Possible, in theory, or, maybe they really do just stink in the clutch.

There are lies, dang lies, then there are stats. Quite often, people manipulate stats to try to support what they think, BP is the master of it.

The issue has been studied again and again. Do you really think ARod comes to the plate when it’s 9-2 and says “okay, time to hit a home run”? Do you really think something as instinctive as hitting a baseball is like putting or shooting a free throw? There’s no time to think about it . . .

Prospectus did the most thorough examination of clutch hitting. They measured the impact of every at-bat of various players on the outcome of the game (i.e. an 8th inning Earl Weaver when it’s 9-2 increases a team’s chances of winning by, say, 0.1%, while an 8th inning 3-run shot when it’s 0-2 probably increases a team’s chances of winning by 60%). Then they compared those results to what would happen if clutch hitting was completely random (i.e. players performed at their established performance levels).

What they found was that about 2% of a player’s performance level was related to some inherent “clutch” factor and it showed up in guys who had great bat control. A good example of this was Maggs’ 2-run single that beat Toronto earlier this month–he was clearly hoping to go with a pitch and hit it between 1st and 2nd base to win the game.

The other 98% of the variance was due to a player’s underlying talent and random fluctuation.

Does that completely settle the question? No. But it shows that the most important indicator of how a player will perform in a clutch situation is not his “clutch” ability, but rather his overall ability. I reiterate: I’ll take a guy like A-Rod with a .967 career OPS who “isn’t clutch” over a guy with a .700 OPS who is.

I think fans project their own nervousness in a key situation on the hitter. I also think many fans instinctively dislike certain star players, so the notion that they aren’t “clutch” is one way to dismiss the statistical evidence.

1. A-Rod( or K-Rod as he was known last year)
Not going to happen.
He loves NY.
Boston would easily out bid us if he did opt out of NY.
His 30+ million a year contract that he’d get is insane for a slightly overrated player. Yes i said slightly because you only get a 50+ homer and 150+ RBI season one in every say 8 years or so. He will fall back down next year to around a .290avg, 35+ homer, 115+ RBIs next season still great but the hipe is bad. It will be interesting how he reacts in teh Postseason if he chokes again just shows me that he is still over rated. If not well ill eat my words. Either way hed be an outstanding upgrade but it wont happen.
Probability- 5 percent

2. Edgar Renteria
Via trade Robertson, Bonderman straight up or prospects from Braves(yes they still have many good prospects even w/o Salty.)

Could happen Leyland and him known each other from 1997 marlins WS team.
Less errors then Guillen by 8 i believe.
Less DP made then Guillen but thats because of his stint on the DL first for him in a couple of seasons.
Affordable with Boston still paying a chunk of his salary.
Great .300/15hr/80+rbi SS that I don’t think will revert to his Boston era season.
Probability-50/50

3. Someone else or AAA SS from another team or our farm system.

Probability-45 percent.

theres my take on SS next year. Romon will be backup and still will get 150AB at least next year but will have a veteran starter ahead of him.

“Clutch” fluctuates from year to year as all the “clutch” numbers are based on a small microcosm of a players season. Small samples sizes aren’t reliable. See: Craig Monroe circa 2006 vs. Craig Monroe circa 2007. I rest my case on “clutch”.

As far as getting Omar Vizquel, count me out. He’s got good defensive numbers but even less range then Carlos Guillen. His good defensive numbers stay intact based on the fact that he just doesn’t get to any ground balls. Guillen’s errors at SS aren’t from a lack of concentration it’s from bad knees, a terrible throwing motion, and limited range.

As for picking up a 2B or a 3B and moving Inge to SS the options aren’t any better. At all. The best 2B available is 36 year old Mark Loretta. The best 3B available is going to be Mike Lowell who’s 33 and looking for a long term deal of around 4 years with possible options for a 5th. Count me out on that. Even with his monster year this year.

The Free Agent market as a whole is incredibly weak.

If you have ever played a competitive sport you would know that when the game is on the line the ones who do well aren’t afraid to do poorly.

Another analogy – your taking an exam you studied a ridulous ammount for it, and you are really really nervous you overthink each question and doubt yourself and fail.

He didn’t play in college or even his sr year in HS and barely in the minors.

He just has good stuff, but couldn’t shake the first inning, then again he was good against the Yanks last year.

All that really matters is if you have talent(Arod) and drive(Eckstein) and don’t mess up your life like Elija Dukes. Clutch is clutch. Go listen to “Mr. Clutch” Derek Jeter at the end of “STATE OF THE YANKEES” on their site – sept 26 he talks about it very interesting

I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.
Michael Jordan