I think the odds are more or less right. I’m with you; gut instincts tell me the Tigers have a better shot than 15% — but if you look just at the mathematics, the situation gets much more grim.

Consider:

In my mind, it’s very plausible that the Tigers will go 8-4 the remaining 12 games — let’s give it about a 40% chance. That would be good .670 ball here on out. It’s also equally plausible that the Yankees go 6-7 over their remaining 13 games (they certainly have before over a 13 game stretch) — let’s also say about a 40% chance. The catch is having both statistics occur in tandum — and anybody who understands statistics knows you have exactly a 16% chance of that. I said at the outset, when I first projected the odds given how I saw the teams playing (which admittedly injected an element of subjective judgement into the equation), that the Tigers had to go 18-4 in the last 22 games to have any shot. Since then they’ve managed to go 8-2 with 12 games remaining. I was overestimating the Yankees at the time — but even I didn’t expect the Yankees to also go 8-2 over those same span of games. Now even if the Tigers go 10-2 from here out, it’ll still be a stretch to reach. Nonetheless, if the Tigers go 10-2 here on out, I’ll assume a) the Yankees will go about 8-5 (which would render a tie) or 7-6, which would give the Tigers the wildcard outright or b) the Indians will lose the series against the Tigers and also go 5-5 in their remaining games (which would render a tie in the division). If the Tigers sweep or win the series against the Indians, I can totally see the Tribe stumbling at the line by playing .500 baseball. Again — the key here is for the Tigers to keep winning. That is at least one element of the equation we can control (in theory, anyway).

Baseball Prospectus is underestimating the Tigers chances, in my opinion. 15% is way to low, I’d put it more at 25% at least.

If they take care of business against the Indians(winning 2 out of 3…though a sweep is preferable….obviously) I like their chances, 3 games at home against the Royals with the rotation setup nicely(Jair, Kenny, and Justin) is a nice matchup. Whilst the Yankees, while they do have the hapless Orlioles and their minor league rotation on tap next, after that they have to face the Blue Jays with games facing Halladay and Burnett. On paper it looks like a split for the Yankees in that series, with the Blue Jays taking 3 of 4 a slight stretch, but still, a realistic possiblity.

Then the Yanks have 3 games on the Road vs. Tampa, one of which will be against Kazmir.

The Yankees did luck out in not having to face Bedard or Guthrie.

You have me at a disadvantage… (I was one of those kids throwing paper wads and goofing off in school instead of paying attention). The utter lack of “inculcating” an academic sensibility in more formitative years has obviously manifested itself in unconscious ways as I ponder what’s what with my Tigers.

To cutivate a cuture of higher expectations and successive winning seasons, which Ilitch says he wants, and which I’m certain every Tiger fan wants (and you are exactly right about this), one should begin by not excusing the play between July 19 – Sept. 1. I’ve had long discussions with others here about the same thing. I’ve taken an unpoplular stance (no one who loves this team really wants to dis the Tigers) and have maintained that the media in Detroit was too lax during the slide and the Tigers themselves were just too complacent and lax from July 19 to Sept. 1, while others continually adopted the role of the forgiving apologist, happy to just be in the race (or kinda in the race — as it so happens to turn out) — I couldn’t disagree more. If you want a string of winning seasons with a few rings thrown in here and there, it all boils down to the undisputable fact that championship-caliber teams must hold higher standards for themselves and inculcate an understanding deep within that lackluster preformances and poorly played games (for seven consecutive weeks!) is simply unacceptable. The alternative — and this is just the reality — is a disenchanted fan base in a market already challenged relative to, say, a Chicago, a Boston, or a New York market, a loss of market revenue, a reduction in payroll, an unwillingness for talented free-agent players to play for the team, and an inevitable slide back into a decade or two of losing seasons. We got the beginning of something good going here in Detroit — we need to set to higher standards for ourselves to see this emerging trend to its rightful fruition.

Regardless, as far as I’m concerned, the 5 game winning streak is yesterday’s news. We could have lost the last 5 and the Yankees and Indians could have done the same, and we’d be in the same position. We have to play better than the Yankees and Indians, and they are not allowing us to do so.

So we need a new winning streak. I’m calling for a 3 game winning streak starting tonight. We’ll reevaluate after that.

I said that about them in the WS. They were pathetic and embarrassing. The desire to achieve cannot happen overnight (well, occasionally it does). It’s a process of not being satisfied with average or below average. Grandy hates losing teams and he’s said he’s never played on one. You send your kids to certain schools because you believe the culture is one of high expectations. This is what Detroit has to incorporate into the culture of the Detroit Tiger franchise and it is happening maybe not as fast as we would like, though. We’ll see!!!

The Tigers are like that really really smart, albeit somewhat underachieving student who slacks most of the year, skips class and goofs off until he/she realizes they have to ace their remaining assignments, otherwise it’s summer school. No, even a B+/A- on a couple projects here on out won’t cut it. Suddenly that student starts cramming and starts getting 100% — problem is, unless that student gets 100% for the last two months of school year, he/she stays back. We all know a kid like this — and unfortunately, the Tigers fit the profile.

I, for one, was that strick parent beating up the Tigers when they were skipping class and throwing paper wads (when they should have been taking notes), anticipating the nearly impossible scenario they’ve gotten themselves into — when a lot of others were saying, “… relax! It’s a 162 game year, they’re hurt! etc., etc….”

And, yes, I anticipate the criticism of this analogy. But I’m sorry. There is no excuse for play between July 19 – Sept 1. Why paint yourself into corner? Every game is important to a pennant race – from April 5th on.

The thing is:

If the Tigers take two of three, they are still a full four games back in the loss column with only 9 games remaining. Yes, they could still make those games up… but the odds are just SOOOO against it. I’m not trying to be negative — just looking at the mathematics of it. It also appears nobody on the planet can beat the Yankees (very, very frustrating).

Second, the way the umpires squeezed the strike zone on us at the end of the game was a shame. It was decidedly one sided and worthy of league attention.