I hope you’re right about the Yankees.

Three weeks ago who would have thought the Indians would be playing .800 since August 15? It’s just so hard to say what any team will do/won’t do. The Yankees have a week schedule, albeit a big chunk away from the Bronx, so I guess the most optimistic call is throw up your hands and say they could go either way … I will be the first to say I overestimated the Yankees, if they happen to play .500 here on out. And obviously, that would bode well for the Tigers.

Under that scenario, the Tigers need to go 15-7 to force a tie. The BP projections give us a 23 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In the words of Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber: “So you’re saying there’s a chance?!”

not just defense
not just hitting ( he’s been flirting with 300 )
not just base running

Grandy is pure energy and he helps spark the team and you can’t hang numbers on that but guess what it’s a key to success

I respectfully disagree. Brandon Inge has to produce if this team is going to win. Grant it, “really hot” is an arbitrary quantifier, but by hot I mean he has to be perceived by opposing pitchers as a threat, either a power threat or a threat to get on base/move runners up/deliver the RBI. He also has to do so every now and then and contribute. You can’t expect two or three offensive players to carry a team. The past two months Inge has been perceived as anything but, and more the equivalent of a NL pitcher batting ninth.

It is really nice to see the string of clutch hitting from Brandon the past couple games. It’s no coincidence the Tigers managed to win this series given Brandon’s bat finally helped out the team. The Tigers easily could have been swept (by perhaps the worst team in baseball) if it weren’t for Inge coming thru, as he’s paid to come thru. He needs to continue now.

The main issue I see with the recent offesive sputtering (and the obscene amount of runners LOB) is the huge holes in the lineup. The Tigers would begin a rally, and the other team would just pitch around productive hitters, e.g. Polly, Maggs, Guillen, Casey, etc., to get to Inge, Pudge, (Grandy against Lefties, etc.). Obviously Sheff back in the lineup will help with that. But the point is, what difference does it make if you have Maggs, Polly, Guillen if you can get your outs from the rest of the lineup and leave them on base anyway?

We need Pudge and Inge to see the ball well and begin hitting if there is any chance to pull off the aforementioned streak to a playoff berth.

I don’t really know how many games the Yankees will win, you’re 640 win pct since June may be right, or maybe they are the team that has played .500 ball over their last 22.

I’m not even really factoring the Indians at this point, because they’d have to out and out lose the division at this point. But the Tigers are still in a position where they could simply outperform the Yankees (and Mariners) by 3 wins.

Regardless, I agree that the Tigers have to play really really well to have a shot, and why blowing 7 run leads proves to be so costly.

The key here is to be realistic. Sure, the Yankees could collapse and the Indians could collapse — in which case 16-6, maybe even 15-7 would be enough — but it’s just not realistic to expect either of those two teams to collapse down the stretch. It’s more realistic to elevate expectations, get on a streak, and win. The Tigers have done it before. With Sheff in the lineup and Rogers back, and the bullpen in tact, they are equipped to do it again — they NEED to do it again.

I’m not too worried about the Marniers because at least we have a three game series left with them. Win or sweep that series (which is a must, regardless) and we control our destiny vs. the Ms. I’m also extremely hopeful the Angels will cool off the Tribe and knock them back down to earth. They are the perfect team to do it. It would be sweet to be within some kind of striking distance when we go against the Tribe.

Again, we’re back to the fundamental question of whether randomness has any impact on a player’s/team’s performance.

So

That sounds good but the premise is incorrect. That’s basing this all on the assumption that batter is a .300 hitter when it comes to the specifics of facing lefties.

the premise is perfectly fine. The same holds true if you start doing it for splits and say a hitter’s talent level is .300 against lefties so the confidence inteveral for his next 100 at-bats against lefties is 210-390.

So if Granderson hits .240 against lefties next year it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s made a huge adjustment. It may just be variation. At the same time, it doesn’t mean that he’s not making adjustments, there just isn’t enough data to tell.

And moving beyond the confidence interval stuff, I don’t know that anything has fundamentally changed in his talent level against lefties. His striekout rate has remained the same the last two years, and as Kyle pointed out his BABIP is the difference between the 2 years, and that is the portion that is more prone to variation. What isn’t available to help answer the question is the distribution of the types of batted balls against lefties the last 2 years, which would help to answer the luck question. If he’s hitting a lot more infield flies or fewer line drives then that would lend iself to a talent issue, if those numbers are the same it’s more of a luck issue.

Keep in mind the Yanks are making just one homestand the rest of the season. That’s a pretty tall order for a team playing under .500 on the road. If the Yankees were to do that, more power to them and their wild card.

Heck, if they go 18-4, they’d have a shot at the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs!