And Nate hit the nail on the head on what I was saying. His trend is walking people, which as a reliever, is something you cannot do. The pitchers I brought up I only highlighted to show two routes he can go. Gil Meche had been a league average or worse pitcher, got $11 mil/year and is now putting up fine numbers in KC and all signs point to it not being luck (when you break it down all stat-geek-style). Or, he can go Matt Anderson, who, similiarly to Capellan, had an above average arm and a penchant for walks. And he’s now out of baseball altogether.

Of course, saying that Verlander will end up injured because Fidrych got hurt is absurd; however, it’s not ridiculous to express concern about his arm because many pitchers who have had such high workloads when they’re young have suffered from arm troubles. Similarly, Capellan could end up mastering the strike zone and have a good career; or like countless pitchers he could continue having high walk rates and never reach the full potential of his stuff. The many names that populate the latter list rightly concern Mike R.

Yes, it would be ridiculous to assume that any single pitcher will turn out exactly like any other single pitcher. But it’s equally ridiculous to throw your hands up in the air and say that each pitcher has an equal chance to turn into a success or a failure. With enough data, trends are useful tools for analysis, and just because a pitcher bucks a trend — as both Verlander and Capellan hopefully will do — doesn’t mean that the trend as a whole is invalid.

“Verlander = Mark Fidrych and that means he’s going to burn out.”

Come on. Just watch and see.

The Tigers don’t need him to be another Gil Meche. They just need a competent arm in the bullpen. If he does that, then this was a great trade.

Also, Matt Anderson had a good arm, too. A good arm’s nothing if Capellan can’t lower his walks, increase his K’s with his above average stuff (which he definitely does have) and get tougher mentally. He demanded a trade when he didn’t make the Brewers bullpen out of Spring Training. If he can put it together in Detroit, I’ll be ecstatic, but I see the chances of him fulfilling his potential at about 70/30 on him being an average pitcher that has the “potential” to be more. So much more.

Also, his rise in prospect rankings probably have something to do with not making any extended stays in High-A, Double-A, or Triple-A in 2004 (his best year, by far, in pro ball). Similiar to what Matt Garza did last year.

Delving more into it, maybe his troubles are because he was a starter throughout his minor league career and then Milwaukee moved him to the bullpen regularly when he was in Triple-A Nashville in 2005. He’s still young, obviously, with a great arsenal, he might be better suited to be in the rotation to be successful.

At least, I hope that’s the case.

But last year, if you look at him in terms of Win Expectancy, he was an above average pitcher, being good enough for 24th in the NL in Win Expectancy above Replacement, and 45th in MLB as a whole. If he were on the Tigers last year, he would have been the fourth best reliever — at least as defined by these terms — on the team, behind Zumaya, Jones, and Rodney. If he can regress to that performance — good enough to be the fourth best reliever on the 2006 Tigers — I’ll be pretty happy with him.

And it’s always the key word with him; “potential”. He was the 25th best prospect in baseball in 2005 (from Baseball America) and then fell off the map. He’s a great arm and a boatload of potential, but I think he’s just that.

He’s a very frustrating pitcher to watch.

On Capellan:

I like what I see so far. Even taking the loss on Friday (and giving up the HR) — he looked good/great. Certainly better than what I’ve seen thus far from the bullpen. I think he’s got potential to be a great setup guy or middle relief. From what I hear, he’s kinda a mental case; if Hernandez can work with him and cultivate his confidence, we may have got a steel from the Brewers

And I think Capellan looks very good.