Comments on: The 2007 Tigers Season Preview

By: Chris Y.

Chris Y. — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:13:02 +0000

I really see Robertson having a big year. Luck finally breaks his way re: run-support.

I said it, now make it happen Nate (and the 9 guys swinging the bats!).

By: The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » It’s Opening Day

The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » It’s Opening Day — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 11:22:13 +0000

[...] Brian B: Oh and another thing I would love to see you quantify how Leyland… [...]

By: Brian B

Brian B — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 06:47:40 +0000

Oh and another thing I would love to see you quantify how Leyland single handedly lost the Tigers several games. I personally don’t think a manager is THAT important to a team. Show me a good manager and I will show you a talented squad.

I think Leyland has said it best. When he had talent he won(Pirates 1990 – 1992, Marlins 1997, and Tigers 2006) and when he didn’t have talent he lost.

Talent and performance are the deciding factors.

82 to 83 is certainly possible. But I don’t think Leyland is a good answer for the dropoff if there is one.

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 04:27:22 +0000

Pudge has already started declining.

By: Pete

Pete — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 03:39:27 +0000

Hey, Billfer, great analysis as usual. I picked the Tigers under 87.5 before the Rogers injury (the evidence is here: http://www.writeonsports.com/articles/281/), and I see this team winning 82 or 83 games this year. Frankly, I hope you and I are both wrong and we end up in the mid-90s (and the World Series) again.

I don’t quarrel much with your analysis. Obviously, the fifth starter spot was a bit of a question mark even before Rogers went down, and now there are two question marks. I also worry about Maggs, Polanco, Guillen, and Sheff staying healthy. And Pudge will start declining one of these years.

One thing you did not mention in your analysis is the manager. A lot of us commenters believe Leyland cost the team several games down the stretch last year with some truly awful managing. I assume he did not learn how to use the internets during the offseason (although he appears to have seen the light about Neifi Perez). I continue to believe that this is one of the most overrated managers in the history of the game. Remember, his career record is 1164-1198. I think Leyland will cost us a few games again this year, but we won’t have the margin for error that we built up in the first 100 games last year.

In any event, I’m looking forward to the season and to another year of this excellent blog.

By: Sox Machine

Sox Machine — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 05:15:32 +0000

Here's a study, which coincidentally starts with 1984 data. No trend was found. Anyway, good luck with your guys. It should be fun.

By: Kurt

Kurt — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 05:10:08 +0000

I’d love to know if there’s any study, but I’d have to guess there’s little correlation positive or negative from spring training to playoffs appearances or world series championships.

By: Brian B

Brian B — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 04:08:29 +0000

The Tigers were below .500 the last two springs that they won the WS.

By: Sox Machine

Sox Machine — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 02:52:39 +0000

Has anyone noticed they have the WORST record in all of MLB in spring training through friday (9-21). I realize it is spring training, but have the White Sox FALLEN APART. I’d argue yes. Their pitiching is gone. Also, through friday, the Detroit Tigers have the best spring training record in MLB. (20-10). I hope these are great signs of things to come

The Sox had a worse record last year and won 90 games. They were below .500 (14-16, I think) in 2005, and went on to win the World Series. I wouldn’t put any stock in ST records.

By: Kyle J

Kyle J — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 20:51:42 +0000

Excellent run-down of what we should expect from each player, Bilfer. To me, the keys are Guillen (for the reasons you state) and Bonderman. It’s almost a certaintly (especially with Rogers being out an extended period now) that the rest of the starting pitchers will see a collective decline in performance. Bonderman needs to step up to a Cy Young-level season to offset at least some of that decline.

By: Rock & Rye

Rock & Rye — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 16:55:39 +0000

I see things the same way as you. I think the Indians will win a lot of games but thier bullpen still isn’t good enough to pull them ahead of the Tigers. I’d put Minnesota higher the sooner they remove Sidney Ponson and Carlos Silva from the rotation. As for the White Sox I think Chicago fans will find Ozzie’s outlandish statements less cute when your fighting off the Royals from last place.

By: Mike R

Mike R — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 16:15:29 +0000

Mark S: They have Gavin Floyd as their 4th starter. I’m going to go ahead and say they’ve downgraded their rotation. Jermaine Dye will not have a season like his as he’ll be 33 and is on the down side of his career. Joe Crede’s production will drop as well; I’m not sold on him being as good as he was last year.

Not to mention the possibility of having Erstad AND Podsednik in the same outfield is absolutely laughable.

My thoughts:
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Royals

I really think Minnesota falls to .500. Liriano “only started half the year” but it’s no coincidence they started playing around .660 baseball when he toed the rubber as a starter and they got Scott Baker out of the rotation. Matt Garza is going to fulfill his potential quickly as his struggles aren’t indicative of what he can do. After that, it’s too many questions for me. Sick bullpen, though.

Mauer/Morneau’s production is way too tied to their batting average which fluctuates. If Mauer ever hit over .335 again in his career I’d be very surprised. Also, the dude that got no pub and was a big part of that lineup was Michael Cuddyer. I’m not sure he’ll put up 24 HR, 109 RBI and .284/.362/.504 this year.

By: Mark S.

Mark S. — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 14:57:08 +0000

A note of the White Sox:
Has anyone noticed they have the WORST record in all of MLB in spring training through friday (9-21). I realize it is spring training, but have the White Sox FALLEN APART. I’d argue yes. Their pitiching is gone. Also, through friday, the Detroit Tigers have the best spring training record in MLB. (20-10). I hope these are great signs of things to come