Rotation set – Bondo on Opening Day

by billfer on March 17, 2007 · 4 comments

in 2007 Season,Pitching

Finally, some real news! Jason Beck reports that Jeremy Bonderman will be the Opening Day starter. He’ll be followed by Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, and Mike Maroth. While I don’t think the rotation will matter a great deal, this is the same order I would have picked (not that Leyland consulted me). I like the alternating, not only of the handedness, but the styles as well.

 
 

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David March 17, 2007 at 5:58 pm

Although previous stats have little (if any) bearing on how a starter will perform that particular day, I agree with some other managers that juggling your rotation can win you a few more days if done correctly. I like the righty lefty righty lefty lefty, but I hope Leyland looks at stats like I’m about to show…

Key:
Dominates ERA of 3 or under
Success against ERA of 3-4
Mediocre ERA of 4-5
Poor against ERA of 5-6
Dreadful against ERA of 6+

Jeremy Bonderman
Dominates: Devil Rays
Success against: Angels, White Sox, A’s, Mariners and Blue Jays
Mediocre against: Royals, Red Sox
Poor against: Yankees, Rangers
Dreadful against: Orioles, Indians, and Twins

Kenny Rogers
Dominates: Twins
Success against: Royals, Rangers, Blue Jays and Devil Rays
Mediocre against: Orioles, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Athletics and Mariners
Poor against: Indians,
Dreadful against: Yankees

Justin Verlander (min of 10 innings)
Dominates: Kansas City, Twins, A’s, Angels
Success against:
Mediocre against: Rangers, Devil Rays
Poor against: Indians
Dreadful against: White Sox

Nate Robertson
Dominates: Mariners, Rangers
Success against: Orioles
Mediocre against: Royals, Twins, and Yankees
Poor against: White Sox, Indians, A’s, Blue Jays and Tampa Bay
Dreadful against: Red Sox and Angels

Mike Maroth
Dominates: Orioles, Indians
Success against:
Mediocre against: White Sox, Royals, Twins, Yankees, A’s
Poor against: Angels
Dreadful against: Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays and Tampa Bay

OK now what does this tell us?
To me you have to take this stuff with a grain of salt, pitchers improve, lineups vary from year to year (some more so than others), some pitchers like Verlander have started 32 games in the bigs; whereas guys like Kenny have over 400. Even though all of that’s true, how can you use this to your advantage?

I would look at it and say OK, do I really want Nate pitching the final game at the Jake? Maybe flip him and Maroth and let Mike pitch against the Tribe who he dominates and let Nate pitch against the Rangers who he dominates (and who Mike is dreadful against) this will actually happen in the beginning of June. Little stuff like that could have us 2-0 instead of 1-1 or 0-2…

I’m not saying doing anything drastic, but when a guy has a career ERA over 5 against a particular team and another guy has one under 4 it’s only common sense to switch the two even if one goes on short rest…

Jerry Cosyn March 19, 2007 at 9:58 pm

I agree that the rotation makes sense, for pretty much the same reasons, as I describe (in part) here.

Jerry Cosyn March 19, 2007 at 10:00 pm

(My apologies; I think I left the quotes off the link. Here’s a replacement.)

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