Gorkys is still very hard to project. I agree with them that he is a very good prospect at this point. He has a ton of tools and had a nice debut playing the states.

Its hard to really judge him at this point though because he is so far away. He could go either way. He could continue to fit into their very good ranking, if he really progresses he could fall into the excellent category (he has the tools), or if he struggles for a year or two he could drop to average or below.

I don’t mean to come across as not excited about him because I am excited about his potential. But I just like to hedge my bets with a player like that because he could easily disappoint.

Either way its very interesting to read about and I think that it is a much better measure for players that have reached at least full season ball.

They are right on with this statement:

“All three players are listed as center fielders, but considering that Comerica Park features one of the larger outfields in the majors, that could be a real asset for this club.”

I have long been of the opinion that a team with a park like Comerica could get away with less power out of the corner OF if they make up for it with defensive ability. It would be a huge advantage if they had three guys out there that had a ton of range. It would give them a home park advantage.

I also agree that at this point Gorkys is a Tabata lite but he is a real lite version because Tabata has at least hit at full season ball.

To finish off this really long comment (sorry about that I get fired up about prospects), I will say that it is actually pretty important for the system that Gorkys shows something this year to validate his status. I am personally a bit worried about the young position core. If they can have both Maybin and Gorkys continue to progress, they could have the makings of a great OF to build a team around. At this point I am skeptical but intrigued by Gorkys.

This article explains the new upside calculations which are the main drivers of the ranking. Basically they look at what they think the player’s performance will be over the 5 or so years the player is under club control. The player gets credit for any projection above league average, but no penalty for falling short of that. Since these are the young and cheap years, it is somewhat reflective of real life in that it doesn’t really cost the club anything if the player flames out.

All About Upside

It is interesting that BP is so high on Gorkys. I would expect them to hedge their bets with him.

They are right on that having 3 CF’s would be a big plus for a team that plays in a park like Comerica. Even if they don’t get corner OF offensive production out of their corner OFs.

I would love to hear more about how they measured this.