Comments on: First pitch swinging http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:16:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » More on first pitch swinging - runners on base http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-75513 The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » More on first pitch swinging - runners on base Tue, 08 Jan 2008 12:51:24 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-75513 [...] for Tots BaseBlogging « First pitch swinging Trammell and Morris will wait for Hall call » More on first pitch swinging - runners on [...] [...] for Tots BaseBlogging « First pitch swinging Trammell and Morris will wait for Hall call » More on first pitch swinging - runners on [...]

]]> By: The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » Examining Depth of Plate Appearances http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-47891 The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » Examining Depth of Plate Appearances Mon, 15 Jan 2007 04:10:35 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-47891 [...] Certainly there is more to plate discipline than first pitch swinging. We’ve seen that the Tigers aggressiveness in that regard actually pays dividends. We also know that the Tigers strike out more than any other team in the American League and walk less only than the Cubs and Mariners. One hazard of first pitch swinging is that it short circuits long at-bats, but is there a benefit to working deep in the count? [...] [...] Certainly there is more to plate discipline than first pitch swinging. We’ve seen that the Tigers aggressiveness in that regard actually pays dividends. We also know that the Tigers strike out more than any other team in the American League and walk less only than the Cubs and Mariners. One hazard of first pitch swinging is that it short circuits long at-bats, but is there a benefit to working deep in the count? [...]

]]> By: The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » Even More First Pitch Swinging - Starters vs Relievers http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-46349 The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » Even More First Pitch Swinging - Starters vs Relievers Wed, 10 Jan 2007 03:11:53 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-46349 [...] The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at www.retrosheet.org. - For the sake of completeness, here are the links to the other 2 articles done here: First Pitch Swinging and More on First Pitch Swinging - Runners on Base [...] [...] The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at http://www.retrosheet.org. - For the sake of completeness, here are the links to the other 2 articles done here: First Pitch Swinging and More on First Pitch Swinging - Runners on Base [...]

]]> By: Nate A http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45945 Nate A Mon, 08 Jan 2007 19:19:30 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45945 I think you also have to look at what point in the game the players are swining at a first pitch. Generally from the 7th inning on, hitters will be facing relief pitching. In that situation, tiring the pitcher out isnt really an issue anymore as they're not expected to go long anyway. Also, most relief pitchers have only 2 good pitches and work to get ahead early(often with a fastball). In this case, that first pitch is more likely than ever to be a good one. Still, I dont mind them swinging at the first pitch, but like Jeff says, swing at a good one, not anything that might be called. I think you also have to look at what point in the game the players are swining at a first pitch. Generally from the 7th inning on, hitters will be facing relief pitching. In that situation, tiring the pitcher out isnt really an issue anymore as they’re not expected to go long anyway. Also, most relief pitchers have only 2 good pitches and work to get ahead early(often with a fastball). In this case, that first pitch is more likely than ever to be a good one.

Still, I dont mind them swinging at the first pitch, but like Jeff says, swing at a good one, not anything that might be called.

]]> By: Jeff http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45940 Jeff Mon, 08 Jan 2007 18:56:17 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45940 The real issue is simpler and goes back to the old Ted Williams chart (the baseballs with batting averages on them making up the strike zone). It's better to take a pitch that's barely on the corner and go down 0-1 than it is to swing at a pitch that, if put into play, results in an 80% chance of making an out. The problem isn't take or swing on the first pitch; it's understanding that one should swing at the first pitch if it's in the wheelhouse, not just if it might be called a strike. You don't approach the first pitch as if you're playing Pong, with the attitude that if it might be called a strike it's important to block the pitch with your bat. And that's what was frustrating--if the pitcher grooves one, swing away. But if the first pitch is a tough one to hit that may or may not be in the strike zone, it's better to take it. The calculation is different from the situation where there are two strikes and you've got to be a lot more defensive. Certainly guys like Shelton got too much into taking all first pitches, so they started getting first pitches that were grooved. And other guys like Pudge got too focused on swinging at any pitch that might be called a strike, so he was being given low outside breaking balls aimed for the corner. The real issue is simpler and goes back to the old Ted Williams chart (the baseballs with batting averages on them making up the strike zone). It’s better to take a pitch that’s barely on the corner and go down 0-1 than it is to swing at a pitch that, if put into play, results in an 80% chance of making an out.

The problem isn’t take or swing on the first pitch; it’s understanding that one should swing at the first pitch if it’s in the wheelhouse, not just if it might be called a strike. You don’t approach the first pitch as if you’re playing Pong, with the attitude that if it might be called a strike it’s important to block the pitch with your bat.

And that’s what was frustrating–if the pitcher grooves one, swing away. But if the first pitch is a tough one to hit that may or may not be in the strike zone, it’s better to take it. The calculation is different from the situation where there are two strikes and you’ve got to be a lot more defensive.

Certainly guys like Shelton got too much into taking all first pitches, so they started getting first pitches that were grooved. And other guys like Pudge got too focused on swinging at any pitch that might be called a strike, so he was being given low outside breaking balls aimed for the corner.

]]> By: Mike F http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45744 Mike F Mon, 08 Jan 2007 04:46:24 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45744 The way the numbers actually add up is that this teams average drops when they take by 36 points. OPS dives 69 points. Using the a simple RC formula (AB times SLG times OBP)* to get a simple RC/AB, find that the swinging Tigers create .16 runs per AB against .14 when they don't swing. I think the main problem with the whole "swing at the first pitch bad" thing is the assumption that if you don't swing at the first pitch you start the PA with a 1-0 count. When the Tigers didn't swing the count was 1-0 only 57% of the time. I'm certain that they swung at more than a few balls on a first swing, but I would bet serious money it wasn't 57% of the time. In short, if they hadn't swung in most of those at bats, it would have still been 0-1. In fact, if you look at the results when they didn't swing at the first pitch, the strike out rate went up. Guillen's even doubled to 22% of the time. On top of this, his BA lost 95 points and his OBP lost 51 points. The extra walks he picked up were more than balanced out by the lost hits. _______ * I can justify this. The way the numbers actually add up is that this teams average drops when they take by 36 points. OPS dives 69 points. Using the a simple RC formula (AB times SLG times OBP)* to get a simple RC/AB, find that the swinging Tigers create .16 runs per AB against .14 when they don’t swing.

I think the main problem with the whole “swing at the first pitch bad” thing is the assumption that if you don’t swing at the first pitch you start the PA with a 1-0 count. When the Tigers didn’t swing the count was 1-0 only 57% of the time. I’m certain that they swung at more than a few balls on a first swing, but I would bet serious money it wasn’t 57% of the time. In short, if they hadn’t swung in most of those at bats, it would have still been 0-1.

In fact, if you look at the results when they didn’t swing at the first pitch, the strike out rate went up. Guillen’s even doubled to 22% of the time. On top of this, his BA lost 95 points and his OBP lost 51 points. The extra walks he picked up were more than balanced out by the lost hits.
_______
* I can justify this.

]]> By: David http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45737 David Mon, 08 Jan 2007 03:59:18 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45737 All these stats are good and nice but when it comes right down to it there are ways to have at-bats become more efficient. When a pitcher goes 0-1 on a hitter that hitters average dives and even more so (for most) at an 0-2 count. I'd rather have a Travis Haftner up there or Lance Berkman than a Pudge Rodriguez or a Craig Monroe. Heck even Guillen would do. I think you have take a look at what makes a talented hitter become sucessful - being able to recognize different types, being able to predict if they will be inside the strike zone, and being able to have bat control (and quickness) to be able to capatizle on ones that are, and being able to lay off ones that aren't. The guy who does that best by far on our team is Carlos Guillen, and that is why in my opinion he is our MVP hitter. He had a "good eye", he had good bat control - hits it down each line, and also is not afraid to draw a walk and start a ralley. Now for a team to be sucessful you have to have guys like Guillen and Inge(works the count) inorder to tire out pitchers and make the oposing team reach into their bullpen in the first game of a 3 or 4 game set. Pitchers dont want to pitch to Guillen because of all of those things, but they know that if they have good command they can strike Pudge, Grandy and Inge out with the high heat, and have Monroe diving for pitches in the dirt. I think if Gary is up to snuff and Maggs returns to form somewhat, they can provide some of that and beef up the heart of our order. I duno, I think the first strike stuff is overplayed for teams. You have to go on a hitter by hitter basis and see if they have good pitch recognition. If they dont maybe force them into laying off of the first 2 so at least they tire the pitcher out more than they would have if they would have put the first pitch into play and recorded an out. All these stats are good and nice but when it comes right down to it there are ways to have at-bats become more efficient. When a pitcher goes 0-1 on a hitter that hitters average dives and even more so (for most) at an 0-2 count. I’d rather have a Travis Haftner up there or Lance Berkman than a Pudge Rodriguez or a Craig Monroe. Heck even Guillen would do.

I think you have take a look at what makes a talented hitter become sucessful - being able to recognize different types, being able to predict if they will be inside the strike zone, and being able to have bat control (and quickness) to be able to capatizle on ones that are, and being able to lay off ones that aren’t. The guy who does that best by far on our team is Carlos Guillen, and that is why in my opinion he is our MVP hitter. He had a “good eye”, he had good bat control - hits it down each line, and also is not afraid to draw a walk and start a ralley.

Now for a team to be sucessful you have to have guys like Guillen and Inge(works the count) inorder to tire out pitchers and make the oposing team reach into their bullpen in the first game of a 3 or 4 game set.

Pitchers dont want to pitch to Guillen because of all of those things, but they know that if they have good command they can strike Pudge, Grandy and Inge out with the high heat, and have Monroe diving for pitches in the dirt.

I think if Gary is up to snuff and Maggs returns to form somewhat, they can provide some of that and beef up the heart of our order.

I duno, I think the first strike stuff is overplayed for teams. You have to go on a hitter by hitter basis and see if they have good pitch recognition. If they dont maybe force them into laying off of the first 2 so at least they tire the pitcher out more than they would have if they would have put the first pitch into play and recorded an out.

]]> By: Rob http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45648 Rob Sun, 07 Jan 2007 21:15:15 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45648 It seems to me that if a certain player (or entire team) has a reputation for swinging at first pitches, it would benefit the opposing pitcher to make pitches on the corners to try to get them to chase a bad pitch instead of grooving a fastball to them. For example, if Pudge is at the plate I'd want to start him off with a breaking ball away because he just might chase it. If I was pitching to somebody that took a ton of pitches, a first pitch fastball to get ahead 0-1 would be a nice option. It seems to me that if a certain player (or entire team) has a reputation for swinging at first pitches, it would benefit the opposing pitcher to make pitches on the corners to try to get them to chase a bad pitch instead of grooving a fastball to them.

For example, if Pudge is at the plate I’d want to start him off with a breaking ball away because he just might chase it. If I was pitching to somebody that took a ton of pitches, a first pitch fastball to get ahead 0-1 would be a nice option.

]]> By: Lee Panas http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45619 Lee Panas Sun, 07 Jan 2007 19:49:45 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2007/01/first-pitch-swinging/#comment-45619 This is very interesting Bill. I go nuts when broadcasters talk about stats when swinging at the first pitch without talking about the full plate appearance. So, it was good to see you do just that. It is good to see that the Tigers *may* actually be benefitting in some ways from their first pitch swinging. One of my first thoughts though is whether their poor k/BB ratio is causing them to get more good first pitches to hit. Is this ability to hit on first pitch actually the result of their poor plate discipline? This is very interesting Bill. I go nuts when broadcasters talk about stats when swinging at the first pitch without talking about the full plate appearance. So, it was good to see you do just that. It is good to see that the Tigers *may* actually be benefitting in some ways from their first pitch swinging. One of my first thoughts though is whether their poor k/BB ratio is causing them to get more good first pitches to hit. Is this ability to hit on first pitch actually the result of their poor plate discipline?

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