Remember the year Fick was great with runners in scoring position? You are kidding yourself if you think Polanco actually has a 37.5% chance at a hit with a runner in scoring position. From 02-05 he was a .320 hitter w RISP (.306 hitter overall) and a .244 hitter w RISP and two outs.

Your point that the three guys due up strike out a lot can probably go either way. Monroe doubled. He’s likely scoring on a hard-hit single. That’s why you bunt a guy to second anyway. But you never know. So you take away one out and still have two strike-out hitters left to drive him in. I’d rather take my chances with three outs than two outs in that situation. If say, Infante doubled and Granderson was up, you might want to bunt him for the productive out because of the guys behind him.

In any case, good discussion.

If you are going to sac bunt, you want to do so late in the game when it is close. I think that is the main point of billfers post honestly.

Why does it matter that there is a 25% chance that one of Granderson, Inge or Infante will strikeout with that runner on first? You arne’t likely to get a sac fly with a runner on first, and a groundball is more likely to be a DP than to advance the runner. A strikeout is actually a good out (relatively speaking) in that situation. By putting the runner on 2B, the strikeout hurts you more and you only have two chances to get a hit, compared to three. A single may score the guy from second, but it also might not, just like a double might score the guy from first and it might not.

If we can’t get extra base hits and/or string together multiple hits in the playoffs, we aren’t going to score very many runs.

EZ, do we really want to rely on “timely hitting” from Inge, Granderson, and Infante, considering they are hitting .254, .284 and .260 between them. We don’t have the type of team that can really rely on timely hitting, because 1) the strength of most of our hitters is hitting for power, not average and 2) we don’t have enough guys on base to make it work consistently (partly because of 1) and partly because we don’t draw enough walks). Relying on timely hitting is basically saying lets pitch good and hope we get lucky.

http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5240

“See, it was just about a year ago that the White Sox were cruising along with the best record in the game. Riding along with that mark was a flood of stories about how they were winning, stories that rarely mentioned that historic defensive performance and their reliance on the home run, but rather emphasized their use of the stolen base and sacrifice bunt. The Sox did attempt a lot of steals and lay down a lot of bunts in 2005, but those things had much less impact on their record than did the amazing defense and the 199 home runs.”

“The White Sox, who were among the teams most reliant on the longball to score last year, are even more power-oriented in 2006.”

As for maximizing chances, yes there is a good chance given the team makeup that they could strike out. But by bunting there’s a 90% chance you make an out, and you typically do it on the first or second pitch. You take out almost any possibility of a hit, a walk, a wild pitch, etc.

If you want to rely on timely hitting, would you just assume have more chances at that timely hit? An out takes away one of those chances.

I wouldn’t quite call the Tigers a team that moves one base at a time. They actually are in the middle of the AL in doubles and second in triples. They don’t steal much but they’re still right in the middle of the AL there, too. They’re near worst in strikeouts but they’re only half a K worse than the Yankees and White Sox per game. I’d say they are what they are: a typical American League baseball team… but with an undeniable OBP problem.

Anyway, down to bunting. I agree with bilfer in this particular case. When you are hitting a pitcher pretty good, I think you swing away unless you REALLY need one run. I think you manufacture a tying or leading run late. That’s about all. In the AL, it’s just too easy to make up one run on one swing. I’d rather go for my own big inning unless you’re in a real tight game or against Santana or someone. But against the Royals, I don’t think you worry about manufacturing. With Inge, 80 RBI and 26HR, I don’t bunt.

Generally, I don’t really like bunting that much unless you’ve got a bad batter followed by a good one (like that top-of-the-lineup example above). I don’t really worry about doing anything in order to avoid the negative (double play). If you’re that afraid of grounding into one, maybe put on a hit and run and see.